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OOTP 20 - General Discussions Everything about the newest version of Out of the Park Baseball - officially licensed by MLB.com and the MLBPA.

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Old 10-02-2019, 11:04 AM   #1
jfb8300
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Is player development ever going to reflect modern MLB?

I posted similar graphs with OOTP19. Not much changed with 20. Development at defaults is not even remotely close to the modern MLB youth trend of the past 4 years. I've tried all sorts of modifiers, but nothing can get the curves close to real life.

What you see below is the age of MLB players - averaged over 4 seasons (2016 through 2019) - that had 200 PA or 40IP. It is compared to the running average of OOTP players over 4 seasons (2055-2058) in a fictional league with all defaults.

Decided to get crazy on the second set of graphs and used 2.00 development, and 1.00 aging. Helped more for batters than for pitchers, who are vastly outplaying their real life counterparts in terms of longevity. I've done dozens of other tests playing with aging and development, but can't get them (pitchers specifically) close to real life. Nor do I have the time as you need to sim at least 30 seasons to properly age the players after resetting the development rates.

The last set of graphs shows is OOTP 1.00 dev vs OOTP 2.00 dev. To the best of my knowledge no one has ever really compared EXACTLY what kind of change modifying those rates will produce and just quote anecdotical evidence that 1.05 or 1.1 will throw everything out of whack. When in reality, 2.00 dev for batters is much closer to real life.

Part of the problem could be the AI’s insistence on giving huge FA money to 30+ players for 6, 7, 8, 9 years. Not realistic in modern MLB. It also does not give enough weight to a players injury proneness when giving long term contracts. And once signed, the AI is not going to cut them so they end up driving up the average age of the league.

As an aside, something is also wrong within injuries. These sims ended up with 320 batters, on average, having more than 200 PA when in real life it should be closer to 356. Pitchers in OOTP with more than 40IP average 379 and real life is 395. INCREASING injuries will lower the OOTP number of players reaching those milestones as the PA and IP get spread out amongst the starter and their injury replacement. But lower injuries in also clearly unrealistic. My gut tells me too many injuries happen to injury prone players, and not enough to non-injury prone players.
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Old 10-02-2019, 11:04 AM   #2
jfb8300
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Rest of graphs.
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Old 10-02-2019, 11:08 AM   #3
monkeyman576
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Maybe the game is trying to make the game harder by allowing more FA money to offset AI not being able to compete with human players.
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Old 10-02-2019, 12:07 PM   #4
Snider&Hodges
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Definitely interesting to see the graphs.There does seem to be a trend in real life to go younger, especially with free agents.

AI contracts to aging veterans is definitely part of it. I think AI also has a tendency to not rock the boat. If an AI team has a rotation of 33 year olds that are holding their own, the AI will probably stick with it while humans/real life teams would know to start shaking things up and getting younger, even if performance is fine. AI can register ratings differences, but I don't think AI is capable of predicting rating changes.

Funny enough, if you go by baseball-reference's 2019 stats alone, the average weighted age of MLB batters this year was 27.9

https://www.baseball-reference.com/l...-batting.shtml
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Old 10-02-2019, 12:59 PM   #5
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I think the problem is not with the development engine but the the financial engine. the MLB move to youth is about cost control. a 22-23 year old Quad A quality player will produce about the same WAR as a 34-35 year old 10 year vet...but at a far lower cost. Player eval settings probably impact this as well. I generally see recommendations of 40-50% ratings with a 35-10-5 stat distro. wonder if you weighed stats even lower for 2 years and last year if that age distro (and where money is getting spent) would move younger accordingly.
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Old 10-02-2019, 01:20 PM   #6
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My guess also is that the developers are using a larger time span as the target they are shooting for and not just the last 4 years. This current trend could be a blip (I don't think it is, but statistically speaking that is possible).
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Old 10-03-2019, 06:42 PM   #7
RonCo
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I've done these kinds of data runs more than many times in the past--including fiddling with Dev rates and TCR changes. The answer of what players play in OOTP is a multi-varied, and age rates can be fiddled with by all those development settings, AI GM settings settings, player creation settings, and injury settings. Technically, who plays can probably be influenced by things like ballpark and league totals, too, because they influence stats, which then influence AI decisions (and non-A decisions!).

A more interesting (to me) way to ask the development question is to go through and capture ratings by age of players. At least then you see if it's development or not. This is considerable work, though. I haven't done them since early in the cycle, so take it for what it's worth...but I'd guess you'll never get this to a particlarly perfect place. The game is designed to give at least a passing glance at every league environment in history--and therefore there are just so many moving parts.

I suppose that's either more than you care for ... or less.
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