Why is Josh Hader's card rated so poorly?

[Cheesehead1964]

He might be the most dominant closer in the game right now and...


73?

MLB stats:
K/9 1st
Opp. Avg. 1st
WHIP 1st
4+ OUT SAVES 1st

[PocketsAintFull]

I demand all Milwaukee fans make this a pressure thread

[Cheesehead1964]

LOL Pockets. I just edited my original post but here are Hader's stats:

MLB stats:
K/9 1st
Opp. Avg. 1st
WHIP 1st
4+ OUT SAVES 1st

[Matt Arnold]

Basically, he gets screwed because stuff can only max out at 128. He probably should have like a 200 stuff rating, with his 17 (!) K/9, striking out literally more than half the hitters he's faced.

So because of that, his K and HR rates aren't great, so he gets dinged for that, but his stuff rating is literally off the charts and we just can't compensate for that.

[PocketsAintFull]

It seems like some pitchers suffer more than others from the rating update system. Trevor Bauer is another notable one, down to 80 OVR now, but not having that bad of a season afaik.

[Matt Arnold]

Originally Posted by PocketsAintFull

It seems like some pitchers suffer more than others from the rating update system. Trevor Bauer is another notable one, down to 80 OVR now, but not having that bad of a season afaik.

Bauer's a different story. Our ratings are mostly FIP-based, and Bauer's FIP is over 4. But guys like him or Stroman who are having "good" seasons by ERA but whose FIP values are lower do get "penalized".

[Cheesehead1964]

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

Basically, he gets screwed because stuff can only max out at 128. He probably should have like a 200 stuff rating, with his 17 (!) K/9, striking out literally more than half the hitters he's faced.

So because of that, his K and HR rates aren't great, so he gets dinged for that, but his stuff rating is literally off the charts and we just can't compensate for that.

But Matt, I REALLY need help in my BraveCrew bullpen right now - LOL!

[Argonaut]

Perhaps the Stuff sliding scale can be adjusted next year? As-is you have some oddities like how historical footnote Eppa Rixey has a better card than a power-pitching monster like Randy Johnson (who was much better in FIP and WAR too). And of course the Hader case above.

[Germaniac]

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

Basically, he gets screwed because stuff can only max out at 128. He probably should have like a 200 stuff rating, with his 17 (!) K/9, striking out literally more than half the hitters he's faced.

So because of that, his K and HR rates aren't great, so he gets dinged for that, but his stuff rating is literally off the charts and we just can't compensate for that.

His control rating definitely should be higher ... 2.7 BB/9inn. and 17.2 K/9inn., 6.33 BB per K

[Rain King]

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

Basically, he gets screwed because stuff can only max out at 128. He probably should have like a 200 stuff rating, with his 17 (!) K/9, striking out literally more than half the hitters he's faced.

So because of that, his K and HR rates aren't great, so he gets dinged for that, but his stuff rating is literally off the charts and we just can't compensate for that.

Does the scale need adjusted in the future then? Seems like there are a LOT of pitchers with 100+ stuff. Maybe everyone needs to be moved down the scale.

[matingly23]

He's a reliever and he gave up a few home runs, hence PT hates him.

[Dogberry99]

Movement and Control have always mattered more to how the game plays than Stuff. At least this time around the Overall Ratings are reflective of this...

[JayCantrell]

It's the same way with Brad Hand. His FIP is 1.92. His K/9 is over 13. His card is in the 70s (maybe 75?). I looked for him because I figured he'd be in the 90s and is fairly consistent. Instead, I already had him. The reliever volatility mimics real life in some ways but it really punishes guys having a solid to great season. I think the Diaz/Treinen thing in 19 made the devs push the envelope too far in the opposite direct.

[elutz31]

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

Basically, he gets screwed because stuff can only max out at 128. He probably should have like a 200 stuff rating, with his 17 (!) K/9, striking out literally more than half the hitters he's faced.

So because of that, his K and HR rates aren't great, so he gets dinged for that, but his stuff rating is literally off the charts and we just can't compensate for that.

Why would you not fix this then? Having a cap lower than a player's ability makes no sense. The cap for stuff should be what ever equates to 27 strikeouts per 9 innings.

[Argonaut]

Originally Posted by elutz31

Why would you not fix this then? Having a cap lower than a player's ability makes no sense. The cap for stuff should be what ever equates to 27 strikeouts per 9 innings.

Although I agree the sliding scale for Stuff should be changed, there's no need for this kind of extreme. As is there's not enough usage on the lower end of the scale; i.e. 40 Stuff and below is very rare for pitcher cards.

Chien-Ming Wang is one of the most popular cards on the AH right now, and he has a mere 30 Stuff. The year of the card he had 3.1 K/9. Meanwhile power-pitching king Randy Johnson had a career K/9 of 10.6. So you could base the scale around something like that.

Obviously you'd have to adjust for era and for position players not being able to come in and throw 3.0 K/9 with the lowest Stuff rating. But currently there's too many cards clustered around 128 Stuff.

[elutz31]

Originally Posted by Argonaut

Although I agree the sliding scale for Stuff should be changed, there's no need for this kind of extreme. As is there's not enough usage on the lower end of the scale; i.e. 40 Stuff and below is very rare for pitcher cards.

Chien-Ming Wang is one of the most popular cards on the AH right now, and he has a mere 30 Stuff. The year of the card he had 3.1 K/9. Meanwhile power-pitching king Randy Johnson had a career K/9 of 10.6. So you could base the scale around something like that.

Obviously you'd have to adjust for era and for position players not being able to come in and throw 3.0 K/9 with the lowest Stuff rating. But currently there's too many cards clustered around 128 Stuff.

I'm not saying Hader should be at cap. I'm just saying the actual cap shouldn't be obtainable. Striking out everyone you face should be the cap. While nobody is going to do that you'll have the ability to scale a player like Hader better. Just because Wang had a 3.1 and Johnson a 10.6 shouldn't mean everyone else has to be within a certain range. Hader is 16.85/9 k's currently. I get the argument that he isn't facing the best hitters that ever lived every game like he would be in this game so there has to be a balance. My biggest concern isn't how he would do against the best of the best its how's he done against the people he's facing in real life. Arguably he's the best reliever in the mlb, but according to their ratings he's about the 45th best live reliever.

Hader has allowed 7 homers in 41.2 innings which is higher than most. What the algorithm being used likely doesn't consider is the 8 hits he's allowed outside of the homers. 15 total hits in 41.2 innings is ridiculous. The model is FIP based I'm sure so era, whip and hits aren't considered. He's also got a better bb/9 than both Giles and Chapman. Yet they both have a better control rating. The only thing they're better at statistically is hr/9. Yet they're 100 and 99 respectively but because he's given up a few more homers he's a lowly 73.

Hader has a 1.51/9 homer rate. Verlander has a 1.73/9. While he is a 95. He is virtually unplayable at the perfect level because of that. Similar to Hader he's dominate in every facet of the game besides hr/9.

People aren't looking for Chien-Ming Wang because they want to play him. They're trying to complete an easy collection and he's the only non-live card.

[Goliathus]

CMW's value before the collection mission is around 200+, that's how much I got mine and I bet I am among the 2% of PT population(and I am being very generous at that) that actually used CMW in a PT roster. His 30 stuff is fine in the lower level but he has struggled against bronze OL teams, so maybe his PT ceiling is silver. Stuff might not be ultra important but I guess you still need them eventually. MOV and CON are still better stats though.

I don't think the dev will do anything about it but I can see elutz31's point. Maybe stuff should go above 128 or maybe they should readjust that column and only Hader-like players can hit 128 on it. Those who hit 128 should have 15.0+ K/9 to reflect real life, I guess.

Either way, I think the stats of many cards don't reflect what they actually are. There's a thread about it one or two weeks ago. It's just a thing we have to accept in a game that have like 3,000+ cards or maybe we shouldn't, cuz I remember some of the baseball board games have really accurate stats. Case in point, CMW has normal profile when he should have been extreme groundballer. He has much better groundball ratio than a lot of cards PT rated as "groundballer".

[elutz31]

This is isn't just a Hader issue. It's a live card issue. Every year the home run totals are increasing at an alarming rate. Whether it's science, juiced baseballs or some combination the home runs this season are way ahead of pace for breaking the record for most in a year. A trend that seemingly will continue until there is another Mitchell report, a leak and 89 baseballs will kept out of the hall of fame.

I haven't gone through all the ratings of the live pitchers, but I've noticed a large % of the 1's I'm quick selling or auctioning off, especially relievers, have negative ratings from their original rating. This is likely due to the huge increase in home run numbers this year. Being this seems to be the new norm I feel this needs to be incorporated somehow so guys like Hader, Verlander and others giving up more homers can still be successful at the highest level like they are now IRL despite the home run totals. If a solo home run falls in a forest does anybody hear it?

[chazzycat]

I agree that having any rating capped at a level below where actual players are currently performing is not a good look. There are quite a few relief pitchers in the game with exactly 128 stuff. Now whenever I see that number I start to second guess if the pitcher will live up to expectations. How much of his stuff am I "losing"? It could be one point or twenty - I don't know. But the point is...we should be able to trust the ratings are represented accurately.

Homers are certainly way up in the league, no doubt. But so are strikeouts. The two are linked after all...the ratio between homers and strikeouts is roughly constant. If the offensive players are not hitting the ceiling for power, the pitchers should not be hitting one for strikeouts. That's only fair.

[Fenixdown]

Originally Posted by Argonaut

Although I agree the sliding scale for Stuff should be changed, there's no need for this kind of extreme. As is there's not enough usage on the lower end of the scale; i.e. 40 Stuff and below is very rare for pitcher cards.

Chien-Ming Wang is one of the most popular cards on the AH right now, and he has a mere 30 Stuff. The year of the card he had 3.1 K/9. Meanwhile power-pitching king Randy Johnson had a career K/9 of 10.6. So you could base the scale around something like that.

Obviously you'd have to adjust for era and for position players not being able to come in and throw 3.0 K/9 with the lowest Stuff rating. But currently there's too many cards clustered around 128 Stuff.

Wang is only popular because he's the only silver card for an achievement that gets you a high gold lefty reliever. Not because people are actually playing him on their team. And even then he's still way overpriced, since he sells for 10k per.


Which kinda makes me mad, since he's also the only one I'm missing for that achievement. =/