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01-31-2018, 07:32 AM | #61 |
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Here is the league the Santo/Rolen screenshots are from
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01-31-2018, 07:46 AM | #62 |
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Now here is an example of 1 year recalc working like it should. This is from the very same league as the Santo/Rolen screenshots. This looks great. But, in the end, if development and recalc can't work together in a realistic fashion, historical and random debut are pretty much cooked. Afterall, it's a given that nothing will ever be done to improve the real lineups/real transaction features.
Last edited by David Watts; 01-31-2018 at 09:19 AM. |
01-31-2018, 08:46 AM | #63 | |
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Last edited by David Watts; 01-31-2018 at 09:24 AM. |
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01-31-2018, 10:05 AM | #64 | |
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Green signifies that the stats are within a statistically reasonable margin of error (1 standard deviation iirc, though I could be wrong about that) and red indicates that they're further off than that (could be either too high or too low). So green is a good thing. It means the total stats are reasonably close to real life. Red is the warning that something is farther off than it should be.
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01-31-2018, 10:08 AM | #65 |
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Now that being said, especially in the second screenshot the hitting stats are coming up on the plus side of the ledger a bit more than the minus side.
Not by margins that are far enough off to make them red, but maybe still too consistently. So that will definitely add up over time and even being off by that much consistently will tend to lead toward the sort of results you're seeing. I don't think it explains the margins you're seeing in individual players, so there's certainly something else at work here, but this might be a small contributing factor.
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lukas@ootpdevelopments.com Order Out of the Park Baseball 25! Need to upload files for us to check out? Instructions can be found here Last edited by Lukas Berger; 01-31-2018 at 10:13 AM. |
01-31-2018, 10:13 AM | #66 | |
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Also in this league Ralph Garr had a season in which he had 267 hits. He did have 219 and 214 in two separate real life seasons, but isn't 267 a little bit of a stretch? |
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01-31-2018, 10:29 AM | #67 |
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I do want to stress this point as well. I did this quick sim with 1 year recalc. Development off completely. This overall would not be one bit of fun if I was actually playing and not fast simming. Just as expected, guys that run out of recalc years, basically repeat their last season over and over again. . The screenshot of Machado somewhat shows that, but his entire career really shows it. And what purpose on OPRAH's green earth do historical minors and Negro Leagues serve if you can't combine recalc and development?
Last edited by David Watts; 01-31-2018 at 10:58 AM. |
01-31-2018, 10:33 AM | #68 | |
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So yes, 267 is a bit of a stretch for Garr, but its not inherently mathematically suspect, it just means he got really lucky one year. Santo is a bit more of a puzzler though. What does the seasonal individual hits leaderboard look like in either of those leagues?
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01-31-2018, 10:37 AM | #69 | |
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HR's were more, but that was entirely due to 1963 and 1964 being outliers. Take those two years out and HR's were also almost exactly neutral. So on reflection, I don't think there's an issue with the league totals at all, they're actually almost eerily accurate!
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01-31-2018, 10:46 AM | #70 |
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A lot of this is me rambling, so I know it probably sounds like the spewing of a nut job. But, I play out my games. Well, I should say I watch a game a day. I watch the entire post season. I don't sim when I'm actually playing a league. The only time I fast sim is when I'm trying to prove a point. I have played 18 1/2 seasons this way in my current random league. Back before 17 came out, I had a league that I played 36 seasons, watching a game a day. One thing I know 16 does from playing it so much is, it tends to even a guy out over the course of a season. So, if a guy gets off to a monster start, you can expect him to have a few bumps in the road as the season progresses. I don't know if 18 is doing this. In the case of Santo, if he had bumps that brought him down, he had to be hitting at Babe Ruth pace for huge parts of the season. It's almost like the game is hell bent on creating outliers or super heroes. As we can see by the green the league isn't drastically off from real life, it's just allowing for certain players to perform way above their real life abilities and when they do so, it's almost like the game decides to ignore recalc and throw reality to the wolves.
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01-31-2018, 10:56 AM | #71 | |
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Make sure you read the part about my OOTP16 league (1947-1964) having Hal Chase reach 232 hits during this period and how Tommy Davis had the high (230) same corresponding years in real life. Last edited by David Watts; 01-31-2018 at 10:59 AM. |
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01-31-2018, 11:01 AM | #72 | |
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The key point to remember, though, is that the recalc simply massages ratings before the season, and then we run through the season. And if you play with adjusting the modifiers, we do that on a global level, but don't look in depth. So in some of these cases, it could be a couple teams that end up with no pitching, and maybe guys feasted on them. As you said, the overall numbers are pretty close to on par, but there's certainly something causing the skew in players to cause results to run quite high for some players. I don't know what that might be, but it would certainly be great if we could track down what it was, whether it's the ratings, the modifiers, the teams, or what. |
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01-31-2018, 11:26 AM | #73 |
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I would like to say thanks to y'all for at least listening. I guess in many ways I'm now officially one of those 6.5 guys, only it's 16 I can't move past. Ugh, I will probably spend the rest of my days yelling "hey you kids, get off my lawn."
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01-31-2018, 04:28 PM | #74 | |
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Last edited by actionjackson; 01-31-2018 at 04:31 PM. |
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02-01-2018, 10:08 AM | #75 |
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Last night I ran a 1947 - 1973 historical using real transactions. Players retired and missed seasons according to real life. The statistical accuracy page was almost entirely green. I think the only red may have been a couple seasons here or there in regards to stolen bases.
Now, once again, I was seeing too many individuals finish seasons with high hit totals. Stan the Man was the high with a 262 hit season. That by itself isn't too alarming, but when you look at all the rest of the list and see so many in the 230-262 range I think it's something that needs attention. Stan hit .400+ twice this period. Ted Williams hit .400 once. The other player to hit .400+ was Norm Cash. The great thing in the Cash case, is he immediately went back to reality the following season, so the game didn't string together years of greatness when those years didn't happen in real life. In the long run, if something can be done to tone down super seasons, the game will be pretty darn accurate. That one season of greatness Norm Cash had in real life was pretty darn amazing. There's simply no need for OOTP18 to exaggerate it to make it even more amazing. So, I no longer think one year recalc is broken. What's broken is the ability to use a combo of recalc and development together. |
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