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Old 01-30-2018, 12:37 PM   #41
David Watts
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Originally Posted by Lukas Berger View Post
I don't necessarily have a ready explanation, and as I mentioned I think there are multiple things going on here.

If things did work in a way you preferred with development on in 16, obviously that's cool, but I don't think that was ever really an advertised feature, so I'm not really sure how high a priority it is to "fix" that.

The other stuff though, yeah it's a definite priority and as I mentioned Markus has already done some tweaking and we'll certainly give it a hard look over the next couple months.
Want to make sure you saw my apology at the end of the above post. I let myself move into jackass mode and you don't deserve that. Sorry.
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Old 01-30-2018, 12:42 PM   #42
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What are you guys trying to accomplish? If you want OOTP to mimic an individuals up and down real life seasons then 1 year recalc ( without the development engine) is the way to go. If you ar trying ti mimic MLB in the number of player season averages above .400 or over 50 HRs etc., the 3 year double weighted recalc is the way to go.
A lot of player in real life hit between .380 and .399 IRL and due to randomness, many of those players will hit .400 and above in OOTP using 1 year recalc.
Using 3 years double weighted, you will have fewer player seasons IRL (after being weighted) that hit above .380 and when you convert that to OOTP play, you will have fewer seasons above .400.
Now OOTP 18 May be a little “hotter” than 16 and if it is, then that is a different issue.
This morning I created a league using 1 year recalc for years 1901-1950 and had 39 player seasons above .400. I then changed it to 3 years double weighted current season and had 11 player seasons above .400.
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Old 01-30-2018, 12:43 PM   #43
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Ugh, sorry, just reread your post and I may have jumped the gun a little. My bad. This whole thing tends to get me a little too heated. Again, sorry about that.
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Want to make sure you saw my apology at the end of the above post. I let myself move into jackass mode and you don't deserve that. Sorry.
No worries, you're fine!

I definitely understand your being heated and frustrated, you really love the game, just like I do! But I'm just being honest when I say that playing historical with the development engine on is a niche part of an already niche group.

Less than 10% of OOTP users even play historical at all, yet we devote a lot more than 10% of our development time to historical play. Then when you get into the sort of specialized leagues you and actionjackson are playing, I seriously doubt we have even 15 or 20 total users doing the same thing.

And in some cases, they're not even ways the game was ever designed to be played to be honest. We've never really thoroughly tested some of the stuff you guys are doing afaik, since they aren't things we'd planned on anyone doing with the game.

So since any of the guys who play that way aren't on the beta team (in spite of my best efforts to add them), the fact is we don't even hear about this sort of thing until really late in the process. Basically a year late in this case

So we're always playing catchup with some of these issues. I don't like that any more than you do, but it's just the reality of the situation.
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Old 01-30-2018, 12:53 PM   #44
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Let me say this though, without a combination of recalc and development working together, random debut is more or less a useless feature. Let's say I start a league and Jose Altuve debuts at age 27. MVP season, .346 batting average, 204 hits(you do see the MVP of the league had 204 hits and hit .346....not 277 hits and ...well). Without development, he will basically recalc back to this season over and over and over until he retires. Britt Burns will lead every single random league in wins ever. Sandy Koufax will be the 27-9, 1.73 guy for 10 or more years.

With 16, I have Justin Verlander in my league. He pitched like a future hall of famer to start his career. Then, he reached the end of his real life playing stats. He suffered an injury that kept him out most of one season and a month or two of the following. When he returned he struggled for the remainder of that season. 4 months into the next season he is pitching okay at times, but still showing signs of decline.
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Old 01-30-2018, 01:12 PM   #45
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Let me say this though, without a combination of recalc and development working together, random debut is more or less a useless feature. Let's say I start a league and Jose Altuve debuts at age 27. MVP season, .346 batting average, 204 hits(you do see the MVP of the league had 204 hits and hit .346....not 277 hits and ...well). Without development, he will basically recalc back to this season over and over and over until he retires. Britt Burns will lead every single random league in wins ever. Sandy Koufax will be the 27-9, 1.73 guy for 10 or more years.

With 16, I have Justin Verlander in my league. He pitched like a future hall of famer to start his career. Then, he reached the end of his real life playing stats. He suffered an injury that kept him out most of one season and a month or two of the following. When he returned he struggled for the remainder of that season. 4 months into the next season he is pitching okay at times, but still showing signs of decline.
Yeah, that makes sense. I'll try to have the guys take a look at this during beta and we'll see where we go from there.
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Old 01-30-2018, 01:18 PM   #46
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No worries, you're fine!

I definitely understand your being heated and frustrated, you really love the game, just like I do! But I'm just being honest when I say that playing historical with the development engine on is a niche part of an already niche group.

Less than 10% of OOTP users even play historical at all, yet we devote a lot more than 10% of our development time to historical play. Then when you get into the sort of specialized leagues you and actionjackson are playing, I seriously doubt we have even 15 or 20 total users doing the same thing.

And in some cases, they're not even ways the game was ever designed to be played to be honest. We've never really thoroughly tested some of the stuff you guys are doing afaik, since they aren't things we'd planned on anyone doing with the game.

So since any of the guys who play that way aren't on the beta team (in spite of my best efforts to add them), the fact is we don't even hear about this sort of thing until really late in the process. Basically a year late in this case

So we're always playing catchup with some of these issues. I don't like that any more than you do, but it's just the reality of the situation.
In this thread I posted a picture of a fictional player Matt "Pumpin" Perry. What might cause that?
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Old 01-30-2018, 01:24 PM   #47
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In this thread I posted a picture of a fictional player Matt "Pumpin" Perry. What might cause that?
It totally and completely depends on the league modifiers, the expected runs environment and the ratings distribution of the players in the league.

Once you go fictional or change settings, anything can happen.

So in a case like that, it could be high batting league totals or ltm's for the league as a whole, it could be that even with normal league totals he has ratings significantly above what anyone else in the league has, and thus ends up like a Babe Ruth in the 1920's.

Or there could indeed be something screwed up in the statistical distribution of the game, but if that's the case it would seemingly only be happening in certain circumstances, as that sort of extreme performance is just not something we've seen in testing on normal settings, with typical ltms or modifiers.

So I'm sure something's off somewhere, but difficult to say just what without knowing everything about the league.
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Old 01-30-2018, 01:35 PM   #48
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It totally and completely depends on the league modifiers, the expected runs environment and the ratings distribution of the players in the league.

Once you go fictional or change settings, anything can happen.

So in a case like that, it could be high batting league totals or ltm's for the league as a whole, it could be that even with normal league totals he has ratings significantly above what anyone else in the league has, and thus ends up like a Babe Ruth in the 1920's.

Or there could indeed be something screwed up in the statistical distribution of the game, but if that's the case it would seemingly only be happening in certain circumstances, as that sort of extreme performance is just not something we've seen in testing on normal settings, with typical ltms or modifiers.

So I'm sure something's off somewhere, but difficult to say just what without knowing everything about the league.
All I did when I started that league was select 1984 as my year to begin. I did have the game import modifiers yearly for historical accuracy. Once league was created I selected a date to sim to and let it rip. Straight out of the box otherwise. And Babe Ruth could only wish he was the Pumpkin. That guy had 70+ home runs and a 100+ stolen bases in a single season.

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Old 01-30-2018, 01:38 PM   #49
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All I did when I started that league was select 1984 as my year to begin. I did have the game import modifiers yearly for historical accuracy. Once league was created I selected a date to sim to and let it rip. Straight out of the box otherwise.
Not sure when I'll be able to look, because I'm busier than a one armed paper hanger right now but if you want to upload the league to dropbox or to our servers (instructions on that in my sig) and send me a link I'll try to take a look and see what I can see.
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Old 01-30-2018, 03:33 PM   #50
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I seem to recall asking David this before on a similar issue, but what amount of ab's are you guys using for the make worse/make bad option?

That's probably the one single setting in historical that will have the biggest effect on the distribution of stats from the top of the league to the bottom, or vice-versa.
I use 200/50 AB for adjust/weaken for batters (I believe those are what those two are called), and 40/10 IP for adjust/weaken for pitchers.
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Old 01-30-2018, 03:35 PM   #51
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In this thread I posted a picture of a fictional player Matt "Pumpin" Perry. What might cause that?
I think I prefer "Pumpin" over "Pumpkin" as a nickname for this guy, because he's been pumpin' some serious iron.

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Old 01-30-2018, 03:48 PM   #52
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It totally and completely depends on the league modifiers, the expected runs environment and the ratings distribution of the players in the league.

Once you go fictional or change settings, anything can happen.

So in a case like that, it could be high batting league totals or ltm's for the league as a whole, it could be that even with normal league totals he has ratings significantly above what anyone else in the league has, and thus ends up like a Babe Ruth in the 1920's.

Or there could indeed be something screwed up in the statistical distribution of the game, but if that's the case it would seemingly only be happening in certain circumstances, as that sort of extreme performance is just not something we've seen in testing on normal settings, with typical ltms or modifiers.

So I'm sure something's off somewhere, but difficult to say just what without knowing everything about the league.
What I do for my tests is contrast OOTP18 with OOTP16. OOTP18 is pretty consistently coming out hotter so far, but I'm not going to do 1,000 tests or something crazy like that. Lemme know what sorts of settings could affect this, and I'll let you know what I've got them set at. I know you're really, really, really, really busy, so whenever you can is fine by me.
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Old 01-30-2018, 09:00 PM   #53
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Hmmmm, user settings? Straight random debut starting in 1947. Import modifiers for accuracy. 1 year recalc. Development off
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Old 01-30-2018, 09:10 PM   #54
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Old 01-30-2018, 09:15 PM   #55
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Manny Machado a perfect example of why development is needed along with recalc. Yeah, there's nothing better than when a guy has the same season 3 years in a row\
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Old 01-30-2018, 09:18 PM   #56
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Old 01-30-2018, 10:03 PM   #57
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When you run these:
-What do you get for your modifiers?
-What does the historical sim accuracy tab show?

The only thing I can guess at is that the league modifiers are really screwing up given the talent disparity that you see in random debug leagues. Especially when using years well into the past, that really skews the averages for K, BB, and HR. So it's not too surprising that someone like Santo can hit .360+ when he hits 41 HR and only strikes out 58 times. Although I guess even that is running a .360 BABIP or so, which is still crazy high...
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Old 01-30-2018, 10:46 PM   #58
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When you run these:
-What do you get for your modifiers?
-What does the historical sim accuracy tab show?

The only thing I can guess at is that the league modifiers are really screwing up given the talent disparity that you see in random debug leagues. Especially when using years well into the past, that really skews the averages for K, BB, and HR. So it's not too surprising that someone like Santo can hit .360+ when he hits 41 HR and only strikes out 58 times. Although I guess even that is running a .360 BABIP or so, which is still crazy high...
I believe David Watts is allowing the game to run, importing modifiers as it goes. Going for speed to sim as many seasons as possible and then check the results. I can tell you that based on my testing there's a lot of green and not much red in the historical sim accuracy tab. I suppose it's possible in the case of Santo that he played in a very deadish ball era IRL and you're picking him up and dropping him in a more lively era, but that doesn't explain some of the other examples here.
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Old 01-31-2018, 07:19 AM   #59
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When you run these:
-What do you get for your modifiers?
-What does the historical sim accuracy tab show?

The only thing I can guess at is that the league modifiers are really screwing up given the talent disparity that you see in random debug leagues. Especially when using years well into the past, that really skews the averages for K, BB, and HR. So it's not too surprising that someone like Santo can hit .360+ when he hits 41 HR and only strikes out 58 times. Although I guess even that is running a .360 BABIP or so, which is still crazy high...

The Santo/Rolen screenshots come from a league starting in 1947. Game is set so OOTP imports the modifiers each season according to history.

As Action said, it's pretty much all green.

And if you go back in this thread, you will see that this isn't only a random debut deal.
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Old 01-31-2018, 07:29 AM   #60
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I know all of us are grasping at straws, so I can see why it's easy to blame things on random debut. But, here's a straight historical(the one Galarraga managed to get 277 hits in) and as you can see it's all green. In this thread in an earlier post, I compared the individual hit seasons of this league compared to history, so if you'd like go back and look. This is the actual years of 84-94, so it's not a random talent distribution thing.
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