Acceptance Rate of Compensation Offers

the doctor · 04-23-2018, 12:48 PM

I would really like to see some improvements around the logic that determines a player accepting a compensation offer - I have been playing in an online league for 19 in-game seasons now and the rate at which players decline the comp offers really distorts the Free Agency market.

Example: we're currently in the 2035 offseason and there's roughly 25-30 compensation players - realistically, looking at the ratings/age/position/injury history of these players and knowing our league history, MAYBE 2 or 3 of them will actually get offers of 15mil+.

This really screws up the FA market, because the handful of quality players that are not compensation get bid way out of whack, and the international free agents entering the market also get equally outrageous offers simply because they are among the handful of decent players who do not have compensation associated with them.

Meanwhile, several dozen wrecked 34 year olds who have compensation attached will sit unsigned until the season starts and comp is removed, and will end up settling for 1 year deals for far less than the $15mil comp, because these guys aren't worth paying for or losing a pick over.

Realistically, a wrecked 35 year old who can barely play 1B is not going to be dumb enough to turn down a $15mil comp offer, yet every offseason we see tons of these players turning down comp that would be, far, far more lucrative for them than the offers they end up settling for.

It's not realistic, and it profoundly distorts the operation of a healthy FA market to have so many aging bums turning down comp offers that end up being worth far more than what they eventually settle on. I'd really appreciate this being addressed in future versions. Overall, contracting and negotiations still represent by far the weakest/most unrealistic portion of the game, which is disappointing for a game that's so strong in other places.

MJOzz · 04-23-2018, 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the doctor

I would really like to see some improvements around the logic that determines a player accepting a compensation offer - I have been playing in an online league for 19 in-game seasons now and the rate at which players decline the comp offers really distorts the Free Agency market.

Example: we're currently in the 2035 offseason and there's roughly 25-30 compensation players - realistically, looking at the ratings/age/position/injury history of these players and knowing our league history, MAYBE 2 or 3 of them will actually get offers of 15mil+.

This really screws up the FA market, because the handful of quality players that are not compensation get bid way out of whack, and the international free agents entering the market also get equally outrageous offers simply because they are among the handful of decent players who do not have compensation associated with them.

Meanwhile, several dozen wrecked 34 year olds who have compensation attached will sit unsigned until the season starts and comp is removed, and will end up settling for 1 year deals for far less than the $15mil comp, because these guys aren't worth paying for or losing a pick over.

Realistically, a wrecked 35 year old who can barely play 1B is not going to be dumb enough to turn down a $15mil comp offer, yet every offseason we see tons of these players turning down comp that would be, far, far more lucrative for them than the offers they end up settling for.

It's not realistic, and it profoundly distorts the operation of a healthy FA market to have so many aging bums turning down comp offers that end up being worth far more than what they eventually settle on. I'd really appreciate this being addressed in future versions. Overall, contracting and negotiations still represent by far the weakest/most unrealistic portion of the game, which is disappointing for a game that's so strong in other places.

The biggest issue as Doc points out are the older guys not taking that cash ($16mm is a nice chunk for a guy that had 300ABs) and the outrageous demands ($27mm for 5 years for a guy over 33). If you could fix one of these the other would follow suit I believe.

anthonywvalentine · 04-23-2018, 01:15 PM

One player, has been a career DH all with the team that drafted him. Dude can hit but has never developed any sort of ability to play the field. He's 32, been in the league for 10 years. In his career has 443 Home Runs 1035 RBI's. .298 career avg .361 career obp. Career 39.49 WAR.

I negotiated a contract with him. We have a 7 year max on all contracts. Made 26 Million, opted out of his contract with 1 year remaining.

Wanted 26.780 x 7. I counted with 26 x 3. He came back with 27 x 5. I tried to meet in the middle at 4 years and his next response was 34 Million by 4.

With that 34 million I let him go to free agency.

As soon as he hit the open market his demands were $17 Million to me. He rejected the $16 M qualifying offer. Didnt want to sign for 26 million but now he'll settle for 17?

Romagoth · 04-23-2018, 05:29 PM

I agree with this. I had a 32 year old 3B asking for 8 years/$21 million per year. I offered 4 years/$19 million per year. The player counters with 8 years/$32 million per year.

Contract negotiations and demands are, and have been for a while, broken.

CMH · 04-23-2018, 05:37 PM

Sounds like the MLB.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

Timofmars · 04-24-2018, 09:24 AM

I'm pretty sure I've offered 15m comp to guys that were asking for quite a bit less than that, and they refused it too. Like they demand 10m in negotiation, but yet won't take the 15m.

NoOne · 04-24-2018, 02:32 PM

testing / learnign purposes only:

"Act as" other teams invovled in bidding and see what their demands are to verify the problem.. if there really is no reason you can show that and they know more about what could be 'fixed' to make it more realistic.

e.g. if they ask for more than current demand by ~10M, i'd bet one of the ai teams has a larger offer than current demand due to a biddign war.

also, you can't low-ball a high demand. a human has to wait for it to come down more before offering a lower contract even if the ai has offered less and your offer is comparable... doens't matter. you can only go X% below a demand at any time without upsetting the player.

again, can "act as" can clear this up. check their offers.. learn the ~point at which the difference between demand and current AI offer becomes a signed deal.. make sure to throw hat into ring before that point in future to save teh most money or avoid losign out etc..

if you play online league, nothign you can do with a human spending like a drunken sailor and offering a "too high" offer too early in process due to lack of knowledge of how FA works in ootp. when a human does it, you either match or walk.

the doctor · 04-24-2018, 05:07 PM

(good point of clarity: this is in online leagues where every mlb team is human managed.)

i understand and agree with your point, but this doesn't address the fact that the initial out of the gate demands, and reactions to compensation offers (before any human manger has made an offer) are not realistic in the context of the league and how other players are being paid.

for example, let's say stud 26 year old 1Bs are making, on average, around 13mil a season. in the actual MLB, an injury-wracked 35 year old 1B knows he isn't going to get paid like he was still 26 (unless maybe he has Boras as an agent), and isn't going to turn down a comp offer that can see represents more than he'll end up getting paid in FA.

however, in the game this happens with great consistency, and these guys who turn down 15mil comp offers routinely end up settling for deals for less than 1/3 of the comp they declined, and additionally inevitably end up having to wait til the season starts to sign because they simply aren't worth expending a draft pick on (thus the aforementioned FA market distortion)

I guess what I'm really after here is more complex negotiation logic that takes into account what typical salaries are for the league, what other comparable players are being paid, etc. it's clear that player demands aren't in any way tied to age, injury history, or comparative player salaries - but in real life, these things of course have a HUGE impact on a player's understanding of his worth, and are thus reflected in his demands. right now ootp is lacking that component.

and in the case Timofmars mentions, it definitely makes no sense that a guy would decline a 15mil comp, THEN immediately ask for 10mil when FA opens. if nothing else, that problem certainly needs to be addressed.

Timofmars · 04-24-2018, 11:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the doctor

and in the case Timofmars mentions, it definitely makes no sense that a guy would decline a 15mil comp, THEN immediately ask for 10mil when FA opens. if nothing else, that problem certainly needs to be addressed.

No, it's worse than that. He wants something like a 10 million extension while still on my team. I don't offer it, but I do check the box on the arbitration screen to offer 15m so I'll be eligible for compensation if he doesn't take it. And he doesn't take it. He was signed in december by the Giants on a 1 year 660k contract.

04-23-2018, 12:48 PM	#1
the doctor Minors (Single A) Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 84	Acceptance Rate of Compensation Offers I would really like to see some improvements around the logic that determines a player accepting a compensation offer - I have been playing in an online league for 19 in-game seasons now and the rate at which players decline the comp offers really distorts the Free Agency market. Example: we're currently in the 2035 offseason and there's roughly 25-30 compensation players - realistically, looking at the ratings/age/position/injury history of these players and knowing our league history, MAYBE 2 or 3 of them will actually get offers of 15mil+. This really screws up the FA market, because the handful of quality players that are not compensation get bid way out of whack, and the international free agents entering the market also get equally outrageous offers simply because they are among the handful of decent players who do not have compensation associated with them. Meanwhile, several dozen wrecked 34 year olds who have compensation attached will sit unsigned until the season starts and comp is removed, and will end up settling for 1 year deals for far less than the $15mil comp, because these guys aren't worth paying for or losing a pick over. Realistically, a wrecked 35 year old who can barely play 1B is not going to be dumb enough to turn down a $15mil comp offer, yet every offseason we see tons of these players turning down comp that would be, far, far more lucrative for them than the offers they end up settling for. It's not realistic, and it profoundly distorts the operation of a healthy FA market to have so many aging bums turning down comp offers that end up being worth far more than what they eventually settle on. I'd really appreciate this being addressed in future versions. Overall, contracting and negotiations still represent by far the weakest/most unrealistic portion of the game, which is disappointing for a game that's so strong in other places. Last edited by the doctor; 04-23-2018 at 12:51 PM. Reason: misspelling

04-23-2018, 01:15 PM	#3
anthonywvalentine All Star Reserve Join Date: Jul 2010 Location: Connecticut Posts: 647	One player, has been a career DH all with the team that drafted him. Dude can hit but has never developed any sort of ability to play the field. He's 32, been in the league for 10 years. In his career has 443 Home Runs 1035 RBI's. .298 career avg .361 career obp. Career 39.49 WAR. I negotiated a contract with him. We have a 7 year max on all contracts. Made 26 Million, opted out of his contract with 1 year remaining. Wanted 26.780 x 7. I counted with 26 x 3. He came back with 27 x 5. I tried to meet in the middle at 4 years and his next response was 34 Million by 4. With that 34 million I let him go to free agency. As soon as he hit the open market his demands were $17 Million to me. He rejected the $16 M qualifying offer. Didnt want to sign for 26 million but now he'll settle for 17? Last edited by anthonywvalentine; 04-23-2018 at 01:17 PM.

04-24-2018, 02:32 PM	#7
NoOne Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,167	testing / learnign purposes only: "Act as" other teams invovled in bidding and see what their demands are to verify the problem.. if there really is no reason you can show that and they know more about what could be 'fixed' to make it more realistic. e.g. if they ask for more than current demand by ~10M, i'd bet one of the ai teams has a larger offer than current demand due to a biddign war. also, you can't low-ball a high demand. a human has to wait for it to come down more before offering a lower contract even if the ai has offered less and your offer is comparable... doens't matter. you can only go X% below a demand at any time without upsetting the player. again, can "act as" can clear this up. check their offers.. learn the ~point at which the difference between demand and current AI offer becomes a signed deal.. make sure to throw hat into ring before that point in future to save teh most money or avoid losign out etc.. if you play online league, nothign you can do with a human spending like a drunken sailor and offering a "too high" offer too early in process due to lack of knowledge of how FA works in ootp. when a human does it, you either match or walk. Last edited by NoOne; 04-24-2018 at 02:36 PM.

04-23-2018, 05:29 PM	#4
Romagoth Major Leagues Join Date: Apr 2012 Posts: 365	I agree with this. I had a 32 year old 3B asking for 8 years/$21 million per year. I offered 4 years/$19 million per year. The player counters with 8 years/$32 million per year. Contract negotiations and demands are, and have been for a while, broken.

04-23-2018, 05:37 PM	#5
CMH Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2002 Posts: 5,057	Sounds like the MLB. Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

04-24-2018, 09:24 AM	#6
Timofmars Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Feb 2018 Posts: 251	I'm pretty sure I've offered 15m comp to guys that were asking for quite a bit less than that, and they refused it too. Like they demand 10m in negotiation, but yet won't take the 15m.

04-24-2018, 05:07 PM	#8
the doctor Minors (Single A) Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 84	(good point of clarity: this is in online leagues where every mlb team is human managed.) i understand and agree with your point, but this doesn't address the fact that the initial out of the gate demands, and reactions to compensation offers (before any human manger has made an offer) are not realistic in the context of the league and how other players are being paid. for example, let's say stud 26 year old 1Bs are making, on average, around 13mil a season. in the actual MLB, an injury-wracked 35 year old 1B knows he isn't going to get paid like he was still 26 (unless maybe he has Boras as an agent), and isn't going to turn down a comp offer that can see represents more than he'll end up getting paid in FA. however, in the game this happens with great consistency, and these guys who turn down 15mil comp offers routinely end up settling for deals for less than 1/3 of the comp they declined, and additionally inevitably end up having to wait til the season starts to sign because they simply aren't worth expending a draft pick on (thus the aforementioned FA market distortion) I guess what I'm really after here is more complex negotiation logic that takes into account what typical salaries are for the league, what other comparable players are being paid, etc. it's clear that player demands aren't in any way tied to age, injury history, or comparative player salaries - but in real life, these things of course have a HUGE impact on a player's understanding of his worth, and are thus reflected in his demands. right now ootp is lacking that component. and in the case Timofmars mentions, it definitely makes no sense that a guy would decline a 15mil comp, THEN immediately ask for 10mil when FA opens. if nothing else, that problem certainly needs to be addressed.