Most unrealistic thing about OOTP's model...

[mgoetze]

...seems to me to be that pitchers have way too much control over their HR rates. It feels like a guy with 6/8 movement will just consistently give up only half as many HRs as a guy with 4/8 movement. I haven't actually done a controlled study on it directly but I did calculate some MLEs from AAA to the majors in a fictional league. I came up with 0.88 K% (plausible), 1.16 BB% (plausible) and 1.49 HR% (wut?!?).

I mean, I guess this is pretty fundamental to OOTP's model (contact vs. stuff, eye vs. control and power vs. movement) which was based on state-of-the-art DIPS theory from back when OOTP version 1 was released, but it doesn't seem to match up very well with current sabermetric research.

What are your experiences? Do you have another candidate for something unrealistic in OOTP's model of how baseball works?

[ra7c7er]

Considering OOTP doesn't use sabermetrics to get it's game engine I wouldn't think it would match up.

[mgoetze]

Originally Posted by ra7c7er

Considering OOTP doesn't use sabermetrics to get it's game engine I wouldn't think it would match up.

Maybe you have some extremely narrow definition of sabermetrics, but it seems completely impossible to me to create a realistic baseball simulation engine without looking at sabermetric research. Or, to put it another way, if sabermetrics gives you different results for real baseball and OOTP, then OOTP clearly isn't realistic, and they surely strive to be realistic.

[ra7c7er]

Originally Posted by mgoetze

Maybe you have some extremely narrow definition of sabermetrics, but it seems completely impossible to me to create a realistic baseball simulation engine without looking at sabermetric research. Or, to put it another way, if sabermetrics gives you different results for real baseball and OOTP, then OOTP clearly isn't realistic, and they surely strive to be realistic.

It's never going to be 100% realistic or even 75% realistic or even 50% realistic. Well seeing what some people post it's eerily spot on sometimes. If it was 100% or even 75% realistic every single person playing the game would have the nearly the same outcome every time and that would ultimately make the game boring. Part of the fun is not knowing. Look at how many threads there are about how X player is doing in your league. No two are the same some are really good some are middling and some are bad. This isn't F1 2015 it's not a true sim. It's a relative sim.

[mgoetze]

Originally Posted by ra7c7er

If it was 100% or even 75% realistic every single person playing the game would have the nearly the same outcome every time

That wouldn't be realistic at all. Baseball is pretty high variance, as any sabremetrician knows.

[msupoke]

Originally Posted by mgoetze

That wouldn't be realistic at all. Baseball is pretty high variance, as any sabremetrician knows.

Or maybe it would, as baseball is unpredictable.