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Old 04-14-2019, 03:10 PM   #21
old timer
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OK, the AH really is slowing down now. The gold and up cards are all in short supply compared to just a few days ago. I made a recording of the AH when I was using real money (in case something went wrong) and as one example, the number of SPs has dropped from 84 pages to 50 pages (and that's just in 3 days time). [My only filter was a max price of 80k so the total pages I listed excluded only the very expensive cards.]

So does anyone have any idea what's going on? Are people not buying packs as much or are there a lot of people collecting cards or ...?
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Old 04-14-2019, 03:13 PM   #22
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I can't speak for anyone but myself, but I was about to put an 87OVR live card up for auction and I thought "hm, I wonder if this guy will get bumped to 90 tomorrow? If so, I can probably get more for him." So I held off.

That probably doesn't explain it completely but that's probably contributing to what's going on.
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Old 04-14-2019, 03:29 PM   #23
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I'm shopping for historicals only at the moment and they're really in short supply. There are only 10 pages of historical batters (all positions) with a max price of 175k and OVR 80-100. I don't recall the PT19 AH slowing down this much this soon so I'm a bit concerned.
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Old 04-14-2019, 03:40 PM   #24
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I can't speak for anyone but myself, but I was about to put an 87OVR live card up for auction and I thought "hm, I wonder if this guy will get bumped to 90 tomorrow? If so, I can probably get more for him." So I held off.

That probably doesn't explain it completely but that's probably contributing to what's going on.
this is true for everyone

no one wants to buy a 4500 platinum that could drop down to gold and lose half its value

no one wants to list a gold for 2000 that could quick sell for 4000 tomorrow

live perfects except for mike trout don't move at all due to the huge risk. nowhere to go but down over 10K

and since it's so early the criteria for what moves a card up and down is constantly changing so people are even more conservative

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Old 04-14-2019, 03:43 PM   #25
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that said it does make sense that there would be a pretty steep drop off in activity that then levels out. obviously the majority of people who put money into the game are doing so at the beginning
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Old 04-14-2019, 05:47 PM   #26
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I'm having a hard time moving cards over 10K PP.
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Old 04-15-2019, 03:29 AM   #27
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I would think both the up/down factor for LIVE cards and the hoarding of players for potential tournaments will affect not only the quantity of AH cards but also the price. I hope I'm wrong, but I've always feared what these changes would do to the AH when compared to 19. Last week Bellinger cards were common. But by the weekend, there were none to found when I looked due to speculation of the bump he got to Diamond.

Quite a few people felt the addition of tournaments would help the non-whales, but I was (and am) afraid it would hurt rather than help them. Time will tell...
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Old 04-15-2019, 04:50 AM   #28
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I think it's a lot of different factors that have all been touched on except for one big factor: market efficiency. With the avg. sale prices listed and the ability to see all available cards for sale everyone more or less has complete information. This has lead to prices normalizing, and card availability decreasing.


Two weeks ago, when I started, I was flipping cards constantly. Now, it's become harder to find opportunities, because the market isn't full of people selling off cards they want to shed for whatever they can get, but resellers with more calculated prices. I'm guessing by this point at least 80% of the cards on the market are being sold by 20% of the population. For this reason a lot of cards that are for sale are also just not listed. If I had, say, six Mike LaVallieres that I wanted to sell and there were no others currently listed; I would be insane to list all six at once and remove the illusion of scarcity.
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Old 04-15-2019, 09:33 AM   #29
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this year working the market is all about investing in cards that will bump up a tier then quick selling them, which isn't great because that takes the card out of the economy permanently

Id also bet there are a ton of the non-live cards simply being held until we have more information about tournaments/collections
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Old 04-15-2019, 11:02 AM   #30
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this year working the market is all about investing in cards that will bump up a tier then quick selling them, which isn't great because that takes the card out of the economy permanently

Id also bet there are a ton of the non-live cards simply being held until we have more information about tournaments/collections
I've got 3 teams. For 1 of them, I'm only doing Indians cards, and am fully dependent on the Auction House (at least till I get a decent team...then I might have to move over to packs in the hopes of pulling a big card I can sell for a lot...but I'm weeks away from that right now.)

With my other 2 teams, I've largely been holding off on selling cards until we find out specifically about collections. I don't want to sell off a bunch of cards just to find out that there's a collection of 3rd basemen named Smith that would have given me 10,000 PP if I just hadn't sold off that one card for 2,000 PP, etc etc.
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Old 04-15-2019, 11:38 AM   #31
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I'm with Seth - until I hear more about collections I don't want to dump anything since I expect I'll be sorry - so unless I'm desperate to raise some PP I'm just going to hold onto my cards.
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Old 04-15-2019, 11:46 AM   #32
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people don't want to sell historicals because they have no idea what the future value is

people don't want to sell lives within 4 points of moving up a tier or buy lives within 4 points of moving down a tier because these weekly updates are almost completely random based on all the bugs

makes for a very slow market
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Old 04-15-2019, 04:41 PM   #33
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these weekly updates are almost completely random based on all the bugs
Could you give a brief list of the bugs? I am not aware of any.
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Old 04-15-2019, 04:56 PM   #34
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stanton for example jumping two points despite being on the IL for two weeks they said was a bug/glitch/kink to work out

maybe most "bugs" are the "baseline corrections" to the algorithm that they said won't be happening anymore
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Old 04-15-2019, 05:02 PM   #35
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I see. It does make it very risky to buy/sell Live cards.
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Old 04-15-2019, 05:13 PM   #36
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I also look for historical cards only, and have had trouble finding a variety of them on the Auction House lately. I think it's just the case of the game not being new anymore and losing activity. It's not just OOTP, it happens to every game on Steam -- peak activity will be during launch week.

One solution could be the devs acting as a bit of a market-maker. Listing a bunch of cards for auction to increase market supply and liquidity.
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Old 04-15-2019, 06:39 PM   #37
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The diamond promo is a start in that direction. They need to encourage people to buy packs otherwise the AH dries out, people getting two a week for free isn't enough to replenish. Right now if I have 7K spare points I'm using them to speculate on a potential diamond that might upgrade to perfect instead of buying packs, then I just keep that diamond inactive and off the market
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Old 04-16-2019, 01:56 AM   #38
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Originally Posted by herbyhancok View Post
I think it's a lot of different factors that have all been touched on except for one big factor: market efficiency. With the avg. sale prices listed and the ability to see all available cards for sale everyone more or less has complete information. This has lead to prices normalizing, and card availability decreasing.


Two weeks ago, when I started, I was flipping cards constantly. Now, it's become harder to find opportunities, because the market isn't full of people selling off cards they want to shed for whatever they can get, but resellers with more calculated prices. I'm guessing by this point at least 80% of the cards on the market are being sold by 20% of the population. For this reason a lot of cards that are for sale are also just not listed. If I had, say, six Mike LaVallieres that I wanted to sell and there were no others currently listed; I would be insane to list all six at once and remove the illusion of scarcity.
I also flip cards and the opportunities simply aren’t there.
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Old 04-16-2019, 01:57 AM   #39
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I also look for historical cards only, and have had trouble finding a variety of them on the Auction House lately. I think it's just the case of the game not being new anymore and losing activity. It's not just OOTP, it happens to every game on Steam -- peak activity will be during launch week.

One solution could be the devs acting as a bit of a market-maker. Listing a bunch of cards for auction to increase market supply and liquidity.
Welcome to our league btw. I wish the pull rate for non live cards was higher. You see the ah flooded with multiple copies of the same tired live cards.
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Old 04-16-2019, 10:05 AM   #40
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One solution could be the devs acting as a bit of a market-maker. Listing a bunch of cards for auction to increase market supply and liquidity.
That would mean the users would lose out on PP due to devs rigging the market with supply out of thin air making pack openings even worse than they already are. Luckily I doubt they would ever do that to us


There's another solution though, unsellable historical card rewards from collection missions and/or tournaments. I'm sure we'll get some really exciting and cool cards as rewards whenever those features are ready
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