MLB Live Card Ratings Update Week #5 - Page 2

herbyhancok · 04-23-2019, 06:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CurlyKarkovice

I get the high babip means they're not "buying" his hot play. But he has a career .333 babip so if he keeps that clip up the rest of the year you won't see him crash down to being a .250 hitter per the zips projections. Would be .285 or better easy and the contact rating (at least) will rise.

I've never paid much attention to ZiPS in the past, but from what I know of it, it does a poor job of recognizing improvements in hitting for contact. Justin Turner's swing change a handful of years ago is a notable example.

As lame as it is, just don't invest much in players whose improvements are mainly supported by average, since the stats are based on ZiPS(atleast I believe I read that somewhere before). While you're at it don't invest in pitchers who pitch to contact. I believe ZiPS uses xFIP, or something similar, which rarely projects those kinds of pitchers right. ZiPS has Miles Mikolas projected to pitch to a .310 BABIP; he has a .279 career BABIP and at no point is his MLB career has he pitched to a .300 BABIP or over.

RotoReview · 04-23-2019, 10:01 AM

Any chance we can get detailed updates on cards in the future? It's nice to see the overall change, but I want to be able to see how it will affect my team specifically, and maybe make lineup changes based on a player gaining a couple of points of CON while another one loses them.

webdox · 04-24-2019, 12:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arinelle

I have a question: live Eloy was 94 last week, having risen +3 from a starting OVR of 91. This week, live Eloy is 90, +3 from a starting OVR of 87. Of course, this means that this week the live card is actually worse than last week's, though the card itself displays an increase.

I didn't think the "starting" OVRs would be changing; is this expected to happen in the future, or is Eloy an oddity?

I was wondering about this one as well. He was a 94 when I pulled him the day before live updates. I did not understand the math on this one either. I hope they address this.

dbqs · 04-27-2019, 10:51 AM

Well, it's a week later and TA7 is still hitting the crap out of the ball. Lol. I hope he gets bumped up much more this week. I think it's kind of more fun if the live ratings are more reactionary (though on an overall spectrum of 50-100/whatever) almost like weekly fantasy.

mpatt75 · 04-27-2019, 06:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dbqs

Well, it's a week later and TA7 is still hitting the crap out of the ball. Lol. I hope he gets bumped up much more this week. I think it's kind of more fun if the live ratings are more reactionary (though on an overall spectrum of 50-100/whatever) almost like weekly fantasy.

I was just coming back to say how TA was still hitting over .400, with an OPS over 1.000

Whoofe · 04-29-2019, 11:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mpatt75

Tim Anderson is hitting the crap out of the ball - highest batting average in the AL, OPS over 1.0050 and he is still rated a 69, only +3 from where he started?

How is this explained?

also Hunter Dozier.

I don't even see his name listed yet he is top 10 in the AL in BA, OBP, OPS

not surprising you missed him. even MLB.com has no clue about it, never a mention about Dozier unless its Brian

nickwatic · 04-29-2019, 12:40 PM

Gio Urshela hit 9 for 20 last week and got a -3 for his work. Lol

Chico Guilbault · 04-29-2019, 12:55 PM

Cody Bellinger hit .444 with an 80 home-run pace for the week and did not move at all. I am wondering what he would need to do or when he could hit perfect.

HRBaker · 04-29-2019, 02:01 PM

The list in this post is last weeks list guys... I don't believe the new list has been posted yet?

jgruss02 · 04-29-2019, 02:04 PM

Anyone know when stats will update? The season has started and I don't if I should unload or buy some folks. I need the new values to make a good decision.

Thanks

Joel

Chico Guilbault · 04-29-2019, 02:06 PM

They are updated in the game, for instance Mookie Betts is back to perfect and as I mentioned, Bellinger remains at 97

dancariaz · 04-29-2019, 02:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nickwatic

Gio Urshela hit 9 for 20 last week and got a -3 for his work. Lol

Some of the changes are pretty weird. I hope we get an explanation how the live ratings work because from the outside it looks like they're rolling a dice.

ChetSteadman · 04-29-2019, 03:05 PM

This is perplexing to me. And can be quite frustrating to follow baseball on a daily basis and see players rising and dropping when their performance results dictate the opposite. I'm seeing players that are tearing the cover off the ball, or pitching extremely well, and yet dropping in value. While others might gain value for doing the opposite.

Moving forward, it would be extremely helpful, strategically speaking, to understand what is being used to determine the changes in value as a batter, and also as a pitcher. Are you not using results? And if not, why is that? Are you determining the value based on things like spin rate and exit velocity as opposed to how those measurements actually translate into results?

ChetSteadman · 04-29-2019, 03:08 PM

Couldn't agree more. I find this part frustrating.

HRBaker · 04-29-2019, 03:38 PM

Definition

ZiPS is a system of player projections developed by FanGraph's Dan Szymborski when he was at Baseball Think Factory. According a Q&A on the Baseball Think Factory website, ZiPS uses growth and decline curves based on player type to find trends. It then factors those trends into the past performance of those players to come up with projections.

The system uses statistics from the previous four years for players from ages 24-38, and it weights more recent seasons heavier. For younger or older players, it uses weighted statistics from only the previous three years. The system also factors velocities, injury data and play-by-play data into its equations.

Like other projection systems, ZiPS uses past performance and aging trends to develop a future projection for players. On FanGraphs, the projections are updated daily and predict each player's numbers over the course of the remainder of the season.

Obviously, no one is claiming that every ZiPS prediction will come true, but it is widely regarded as one of the most accurate predictors in the industry.

(In other words, 7 days of recent stats will have a very small effect on what is basically a future projection... not a past correction.)

Dogberry99 · 04-29-2019, 06:36 PM

I am of the opinion that the underlying issues many have with how live ratings are changed have less to do with the change itself and more to do with how OVRs are calculated in general. The only reason why people don't get upset about the OVRs of static historical cards is that they either just accept the rating at face value or ignore the OVR completely to focus on specific attributes.

Murph3 · 04-29-2019, 07:18 PM

Add my name to the list of long time OOTP players (since v6.5) who are completely befuddled as to how the Live cards are rated. For instance, last week Max Scherzer was rated 100 Perfect when his underlying ratings didn’t justify anything close to 100.

Looks like PT is having growing pains. Wish they had figured out a good algorithm for the ratings before I dropped a lot of hard earned $ on this.

Another thing: If you get a player and they decline (from say Diamond to Silver) you can still quick sell the card later at the higher and outdated price. That makes no sense and isn’t “Live.”

Orcin · 04-29-2019, 07:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Murph3

Another thing: If you get a player and they decline (from say Diamond to Silver) you can still quick sell the card later at the higher and outdated price. That makes no sense and isn’t “Live.”

This is not true.

Murph3 · 04-29-2019, 08:13 PM

I had Realmuto since Week 1. I believe he was downgraded from Diamond to Gold, but I was still able to quick sell him for the Diamond price. Did it a few days ago.

dkgo · 04-29-2019, 08:33 PM

you believe wrong. it is absolutely false that you can quick sell for the old price

the overall rating itself doesnt really matter except for how it is tied to quick sell prices. the bar is definitely different for live cards too. a live perfect SP is comparable to historical 95s. Ive stopped paying as much attention to investing recently, not much room anymore. would rather keep flipping for quicker 1K to 2K payoffs.

04-27-2019, 10:51 AM	#24
dbqs Major Leagues Join Date: Aug 2017 Location: Comiskey Posts: 316	Well, it's a week later and TA7 is still hitting the crap out of the ball. Lol. I hope he gets bumped up much more this week. I think it's kind of more fun if the live ratings are more reactionary (though on an overall spectrum of 50-100/whatever) almost like weekly fantasy. __________________

04-29-2019, 12:55 PM	#28
Chico Guilbault All Star Starter Join Date: May 2015 Location: Harlingen, NJ Posts: 1,063	Cody Bellinger hit .444 with an 80 home-run pace for the week and did not move at all. I am wondering what he would need to do or when he could hit perfect. __________________ BeechumCounty.com

04-29-2019, 02:01 PM	#29
HRBaker Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 2,088	The list in this post is last weeks list guys... I don't believe the new list has been posted yet? __________________

04-29-2019, 02:04 PM	#30
jgruss02 Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Apr 2019 Posts: 39	When will stats update Anyone know when stats will update? The season has started and I don't if I should unload or buy some folks. I need the new values to make a good decision. Thanks Joel

04-29-2019, 02:06 PM	#31
Chico Guilbault All Star Starter Join Date: May 2015 Location: Harlingen, NJ Posts: 1,063	They are updated in the game, for instance Mookie Betts is back to perfect and as I mentioned, Bellinger remains at 97 __________________ BeechumCounty.com

04-23-2019, 10:01 AM	#22
RotoReview Bat Boy Join Date: Apr 2019 Posts: 1	Any chance we can get detailed updates on cards in the future? It's nice to see the overall change, but I want to be able to see how it will affect my team specifically, and maybe make lineup changes based on a player gaining a couple of points of CON while another one loses them.

04-29-2019, 12:40 PM	#27
nickwatic Minors (Double A) Join Date: Oct 2018 Posts: 195 Blog Entries: 1	Gio Urshela hit 9 for 20 last week and got a -3 for his work. Lol

04-29-2019, 03:05 PM	#33
ChetSteadman Bat Boy Join Date: Apr 2019 Posts: 3	What is used to determine ratings movement? This is perplexing to me. And can be quite frustrating to follow baseball on a daily basis and see players rising and dropping when their performance results dictate the opposite. I'm seeing players that are tearing the cover off the ball, or pitching extremely well, and yet dropping in value. While others might gain value for doing the opposite. Moving forward, it would be extremely helpful, strategically speaking, to understand what is being used to determine the changes in value as a batter, and also as a pitcher. Are you not using results? And if not, why is that? Are you determining the value based on things like spin rate and exit velocity as opposed to how those measurements actually translate into results?

04-29-2019, 03:08 PM	#34
ChetSteadman Bat Boy Join Date: Apr 2019 Posts: 3	Couldn't agree more. I find this part frustrating.

04-29-2019, 03:38 PM	#35
HRBaker Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 2,088	Definition ZiPS is a system of player projections developed by FanGraph's Dan Szymborski when he was at Baseball Think Factory. According a Q&A on the Baseball Think Factory website, ZiPS uses growth and decline curves based on player type to find trends. It then factors those trends into the past performance of those players to come up with projections. The system uses statistics from the previous four years for players from ages 24-38, and it weights more recent seasons heavier. For younger or older players, it uses weighted statistics from only the previous three years. The system also factors velocities, injury data and play-by-play data into its equations. Like other projection systems, ZiPS uses past performance and aging trends to develop a future projection for players. On FanGraphs, the projections are updated daily and predict each player's numbers over the course of the remainder of the season. Obviously, no one is claiming that every ZiPS prediction will come true, but it is widely regarded as one of the most accurate predictors in the industry. (In other words, 7 days of recent stats will have a very small effect on what is basically a future projection... not a past correction.) __________________ Last edited by HRBaker; 04-29-2019 at 06:37 PM.

04-29-2019, 06:36 PM	#36
Dogberry99 All Star Starter Join Date: Nov 2018 Location: Wichita Falls, TX Posts: 1,328	I am of the opinion that the underlying issues many have with how live ratings are changed have less to do with the change itself and more to do with how OVRs are calculated in general. The only reason why people don't get upset about the OVRs of static historical cards is that they either just accept the rating at face value or ignore the OVR completely to focus on specific attributes. __________________ "And, Masters, do not forget to specify, when time and place shall serve, that I am an [censored]." (Much Ado About Nothing 5.1.255-256) Primary Team Collection Rewards (Cards & Packs) F2P Theme Team Movers F2P Theme and Adam Schlesinger Memorial Team

04-29-2019, 07:18 PM	#37
Murph3 Minors (Single A) Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 90	Add my name to the list of long time OOTP players (since v6.5) who are completely befuddled as to how the Live cards are rated. For instance, last week Max Scherzer was rated 100 Perfect when his underlying ratings didn’t justify anything close to 100. Looks like PT is having growing pains. Wish they had figured out a good algorithm for the ratings before I dropped a lot of hard earned $ on this. Another thing: If you get a player and they decline (from say Diamond to Silver) you can still quick sell the card later at the higher and outdated price. That makes no sense and isn’t “Live.”

04-29-2019, 08:13 PM	#39
Murph3 Minors (Single A) Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 90	I had Realmuto since Week 1. I believe he was downgraded from Diamond to Gold, but I was still able to quick sell him for the Diamond price. Did it a few days ago.

04-29-2019, 08:33 PM	#40
dkgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 2,152	you believe wrong. it is absolutely false that you can quick sell for the old price the overall rating itself doesnt really matter except for how it is tied to quick sell prices. the bar is definitely different for live cards too. a live perfect SP is comparable to historical 95s. Ive stopped paying as much attention to investing recently, not much room anymore. would rather keep flipping for quicker 1K to 2K payoffs.