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01-29-2009, 10:39 PM | #21 |
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I created a 1974 quickstart with these changes: I removed Rudy May from CAL and placed him on the NYY roster. I gave Bill Singer of CAL a CEI. I created three Mike Marshall "clones" and added them to the LAD roster. Then I simmed the season a few times. The changes hit CAL pretty hard. They no longer seem like much of a division title contender. LA improved its team ERA, predictably enough. But CIN still put up a fight for the division title each time. These changes made a noticeable difference.
Another observation: As I said before, the teams with the lowest ERA in real life still do not put up the same low ERA when I sim the '74 season. I noticed that each of these teams -- LA, ATL, OAK, and BAL -- also had the lowest DefEff ratings (see baseball-reference.com). So I'm guessing (again) that defense doesn't have enough influence on the outcome of games. Of course, this assumes that the OOTP engine assigns the proper defensive ratings to players. (Garlon's working on that problem, I think.) |
01-30-2009, 08:19 PM | #22 |
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Instead of using ERA,try using RA and see what you get,sometimes errors skew what you're seeing,especially when your dealing with different personnel.The best thing to use would be something like Tango's FIP which takes fielding totally out of the equation and concentrates on just the pitchers
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01-30-2009, 10:07 PM | #23 |
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I'll definitely need some help figuring this one out.
In the most recent 1974 season sim, CAL finished ahead of OAK with the best record in baseball. (I left Rudy May and Bill Singer on the CAL roster, BTW.) Instead of looking at CAL (which I'm tired of!), I decided to look closer at OAK. IRL, OAK hit the second most HR in the AL and gave up the FEWEST HR in the AL. In this sim, OAK hit the third most HR, but gave up the MOST HR in the AL. Huh?! This could be why the OAK staff had a 3.66 ERA in the sim (compared to 2.95 IRL). (This, BTW, happens invariably when I sim the 1974 season -- the OAK team ERA is much higher than IRL.) Here are some AL stats: Sim (vs. Real) BA: .257 (.258) SLG: .378 (.371) ERA: 3.73 (3.62) BABIP: .284 (.284) HR: 1529 (1369) AB: 67090 (66044) The LTM for HRs will need to be modified a little. Even so, how do you explain these individual results? Sim (vs. Real) Holtzman IP: 318 (255) HR: 19 (14) BABIP: .278 (.293) MOV: 158 GB%: 56 Hunter IP: 312 (318) HR: 42 (25) BABIP: .270 (.238) MOV: 124 GB%: 46 Blue IP: 296 (282) HR: 32 (17) BABIP: .288 (.266) MOV: 152 GB%: 53 Abbott IP: 180 (96) HR: 22 (4) BABIP: .240 (.266) MOV: 145 GB%: 49 Fingers IP: 51 (119) HR: 5 (5) BABIP: .308 (.285) MOV: 157 GB%: 64 NOTE: Hamilton, one of the OAK starters, was traded early in the season in the sim. Last edited by pstrickert; 01-30-2009 at 10:09 PM. |
01-30-2009, 10:47 PM | #24 |
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I ran another quick sim (i.e., Sim 2), this time lowering HR totals by 10%. California (this time without May or Singer) took the AL West by two games over OAK. The OAK staff still had an ERA a half-run higher than IRL. This time, the HRA numbers were better -- though not the fewest in the AL as IRL. Take a look at Catfish Hunter:
Sim 1 - Sim 2 - (vs. Real) IP: 312 - 306 - (318) HR: 42 - 25 - (25) BABIP: .270 - .298 - (.238) MOV: 124 - 140 GB%: 46 - 60 Should his MOV rating be that much different from sim to sim? How about that GB%? Is that cosmetic? Or does it help explain the difference in HR totals from sim to sim? I'm kind of disappointed in these results. |
01-31-2009, 12:54 AM | #25 |
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One final remark for tonight. Catfish Hunter won the Cy Young Award in 1974. He had the stats to back it up. In nearly every '74 sim, however, Hunter is nowhere close to replicating his real life stats. ERA, WHIP, BABIP -- not even close!
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01-31-2009, 09:30 AM | #26 | |
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1. Hunter was lucky in real life that year. If you look around your replay, you'll find other pitchers well below their BABIP totals. Those are the ones who got lucky in your replay. 2. All of the A's have high BABIPs, so the game is probably underrating one or more defenders.
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01-31-2009, 09:57 AM | #27 | |
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1.Luck 44% 2.Pitcher 28% 3.Defense 17% 4.Park 11% I'd be very interested to see how Clay Dreslough's DICE formula or Tango's FIP formula would match up. FIP=13(HR)+3(BB)-2(K's)/IP+3.20 DICE= 3.00+13(HR)+3(BB+HBP)-2K/IP
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01-31-2009, 10:16 AM | #28 |
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Here's the real life DICE statistics for Hunter,Holtzman and Blue
Catfish Hunter-3.59 Ken Holtzman-3.43 Vida Blue-3.60
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01-31-2009, 03:24 PM | #29 | |
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Thanks, guys. I appreciate the replies. |
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02-01-2009, 01:09 AM | #30 | |
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02-01-2009, 04:59 AM | #31 |
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If you use the neutralized stats, GB% will not be random for pitchers. We calculated estimated groundouts and flyouts against each pitcher each season and added it to the DB.
Defense and defensiv ratings are a bit imperfect in OOTP9, so that can throw things off a bit. We should be looking better with OOTP10 in this area. |
02-06-2009, 08:28 PM | #32 | |
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