Hot/Cold streaks...

Broth32 · 07-28-2009, 06:22 PM

I have a question on when your player is either hot or cold. How long does the streak last for? Are some streaks more "aggressive" (for the lack of a better word) on the players attributes? And if you play a player on a streak will the streak last longer or shorter compared to sitting him on the bench?

Thanks in advance for any input...

trapper · 07-28-2009, 06:43 PM

I don't know if affects players or if it just describes the recent past for that player statistically. Like if a guy has been lighting it up for a few games he becomes hot but then he oculd have a couple bad games at any point and cool off. Or even one game. I haven't tracked it but I seem to recall players being hot or cold for one game and then back to normal. I haven't seen any evidence that it is a "watching this guy in practice it looks like he is really throwing well so put him in" type distinciton. My opinion is that it is more like "he has pitched three quality starts in a row now, so he's hot." Duh...

damientheomen3 · 07-28-2009, 07:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by trapper

I don't know if affects players or if it just describes the recent past for that player statistically. Like if a guy has been lighting it up for a few games he becomes hot but then he oculd have a couple bad games at any point and cool off. Or even one game. I haven't tracked it but I seem to recall players being hot or cold for one game and then back to normal. I haven't seen any evidence that it is a "watching this guy in practice it looks like he is really throwing well so put him in" type distinciton. My opinion is that it is more like "he has pitched three quality starts in a row now, so he's hot." Duh...

was the 'duh' really necessary?

Now, hot streaks and cold streaks can last as long as the player is overachieving or underachieving. In one of my leagues, there is a player who has been hot for almost 3 months, and he's gotten 26 total at bats in that stretch.

Questdog · 07-28-2009, 08:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by damientheomen3

In one of my leagues, there is a player who has been hot for almost 3 months, and he's gotten 26 total at bats in that stretch.

That would seem to affirm the postulation that the Hot/Cold status is merely a reflection of his output and not some magical aura engulfing his personage....

treedom · 07-28-2009, 08:24 PM

Ooooo! Can we get magical auras engulfing personages added to the next version of OOTP? It would come in real handy in my hobbit league...

Afino · 07-28-2009, 08:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by treedom

Ooooo! Can we get magical auras engulfing personages added to the next version of OOTP? It would come in real handy in my hobbit league...

But would cause an......issue with "hot" women in my women's league.

Broth32 · 07-28-2009, 08:59 PM

boy - these are real informative answers... thanks for the thread jack

jar2574 · 07-28-2009, 09:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Broth32

I have a question on when your player is either hot or cold. How long does the streak last for? Are some streaks more "aggressive" (for the lack of a better word) on the players attributes? And if you play a player on a streak will the streak last longer or shorter compared to sitting him on the bench?

Thanks in advance for any input...

A hot streak lasts as long as he keeps hitting or pitching well. Vice versa with a cold streak. Sitting him on the bench has no effect either way.

StyxNCa · 07-28-2009, 09:54 PM

I read someplace in a previous version that a streak's length as well a a slump's length are influenced by his work ethic, or is it intelligence. Anyway one of those, or possibly a combination of the two, plays a role.

TribeFanInNC · 07-28-2009, 10:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Questdog

That would seem to affirm the postulation that the Hot/Cold status is merely a reflection of his output...

To this end, I've seen guys get sent down to the minors with a flame or icecube, then when they get called up the flame or icecube returns. I've always thought the same as Questdog stated.

Though a little part of me always reverts back to that old basketball arcade that used to yell "HE'S ON FIRE!!!!!"

jasonn29tn14 · 07-29-2009, 10:10 AM

This seems to be one of the great mysteries of OOTP. I tend to play guys that are on a hot streak more often than I otherwise would. It's kinda like the chicken and the egg argument imho. Either way I think I'm better off giving extra PT to a guy who's tearing it up.

Questdog · 07-29-2009, 11:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jasonn29tn14

This seems to be one of the great mysteries of OOTP. I tend to play guys that are on a hot streak more often than I otherwise would. It's kinda like the chicken and the egg argument imho. Either way I think I'm better off giving extra PT to a guy who's tearing it up.

Actually, Bill James did a study back in the 80's that more or less proved the Theory of Averages.....

Players who were on fire for 10 games hit much worse in their next ten games than did players who had been ice cold............

RchW · 07-29-2009, 12:05 PM

Streaks are a complex study. In order to study them properly one must look at each succeeding game as part of a new streak. For example if you arbitrarily pick 5 games to indicate a streak, then games 1-5 of a new season constitute one 5 game streak, the games 2-6 make another and so on 3-7, 4-8. A fifteen game period would have 11 5-game streaks to study.

The Book by Tango et al does a real nice job of analyzing streaks.

Carlton_Willey · 07-29-2009, 12:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Questdog

Actually, Bill James did a study back in the 80's that more or less proved the Theory of Averages.....

Players who were on fire for 10 games hit much worse in their next ten games than did players who had been ice cold............

Yes, Regression to the Mean explains a lot of life. The book, Innumeracy, by John Allen Paulos makes great use of this. I heartily endorse reading it.

Simply put, Regression to the Mean states an outlying performance (good or bad) will likely be followed by one which is closer to the mean of the data being tracked. Seems a simple concept, but so much of sports is based on feeling 'hot' that the obvious is overlooked more often than not.

I agree that the hot and cold markers are simply based on current performance in the major leagues--that's why the markers aren't impacted by trips to the minors or DL (in many cases).

I would offer that in the case of a young player it is a very good sign that the player is improving. That is, his current ratings are going up. I pay attention to young players who get the hot symbol and play them past their cool down point. If that player regains his hot symbol, it is usually proof he's a keeper in the bigs.

07-28-2009, 06:22 PM	#1
Broth32 Major Leagues Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: C-Town Posts: 385	Hot/Cold streaks... I have a question on when your player is either hot or cold. How long does the streak last for? Are some streaks more "aggressive" (for the lack of a better word) on the players attributes? And if you play a player on a streak will the streak last longer or shorter compared to sitting him on the bench? Thanks in advance for any input...

07-28-2009, 08:24 PM	#5
treedom Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2002 Location: Transylvania Posts: 2,900	Ooooo! Can we get magical auras engulfing personages added to the next version of OOTP? It would come in real handy in my hobbit league... __________________ A rake and a roustabout.

07-29-2009, 12:05 PM	#13
RchW Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: The big smoke Posts: 15,628	Streaks are a complex study. In order to study them properly one must look at each succeeding game as part of a new streak. For example if you arbitrarily pick 5 games to indicate a streak, then games 1-5 of a new season constitute one 5 game streak, the games 2-6 make another and so on 3-7, 4-8. A fifteen game period would have 11 5-game streaks to study. The Book by Tango et al does a real nice job of analyzing streaks. __________________ Cheers RichW If you’re looking for a good cause to donate money to please consider a Donation to Parkinson’s Canada. It may help me have a better future and if not me, someone else. Thanks. “Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition …There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.” Frank Wilhoit

07-28-2009, 06:43 PM	#2
trapper Minors (Double A) Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 114	I don't know if affects players or if it just describes the recent past for that player statistically. Like if a guy has been lighting it up for a few games he becomes hot but then he oculd have a couple bad games at any point and cool off. Or even one game. I haven't tracked it but I seem to recall players being hot or cold for one game and then back to normal. I haven't seen any evidence that it is a "watching this guy in practice it looks like he is really throwing well so put him in" type distinciton. My opinion is that it is more like "he has pitched three quality starts in a row now, so he's hot." Duh...

07-28-2009, 08:59 PM	#7
Broth32 Major Leagues Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: C-Town Posts: 385	boy - these are real informative answers... thanks for the thread jack

07-28-2009, 09:54 PM	#9
StyxNCa Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Victoria, Texas Posts: 3,136	I read someplace in a previous version that a streak's length as well a a slump's length are influenced by his work ethic, or is it intelligence. Anyway one of those, or possibly a combination of the two, plays a role.

07-29-2009, 10:10 AM	#11
jasonn29tn14 Major Leagues Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 320	This seems to be one of the great mysteries of OOTP. I tend to play guys that are on a hot streak more often than I otherwise would. It's kinda like the chicken and the egg argument imho. Either way I think I'm better off giving extra PT to a guy who's tearing it up.