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OOTP 20 - Historical Simulations Discuss historical simulations and their results in this forum.

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Old 03-26-2019, 08:12 AM   #21
so49as
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Game 29
0 – Royals
1 – Baltimore

WP – Storm Davis (6-1)
LP – Charlie Leibrandt (2-5)

Rain forces a double header on the 14th of May. Storm Davis pitched a brilliant game and his defense had his back. I hit into 3 double plays. Leibrandt pitched well, scattering 10 hits. Every Oriole starter had a hit. They hit into 2 double pllays.


Game 30
3 – Royals
0 – Baltimore

WP – Danny Jackson (1-2)
LP – Brad Havens (0-1)
SV – Dan Quisenberry (2)

My turn for the good defense and pitching game. Jackson went 7 and with the top of the order coming up, I dropped Quiz in for 2 innings. He loaded the bases in the 9th with 3 consecutive hits, but got a flyout and a 3-6-1 double play to preserve the team shutout. 3 double plays in total. White enjoys the left-handed starters. He was 2-4 with a 2-run HR in the 3rd. It was Havens' first start of the season after going 5-1 in AAA.


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Jones rehabbed in Omaha this week and is ready to come off the DL. I'm waiting for Butch Davis to pass through waivers. If I lose him, that could be a mistake. I'd like to keep him on the roster, but with 2 designated hitters, spots are scarece.

I'm not sure who Theo Shaw is, but his ERA was 9.63 in Omaha and David Cone shouldn't be in AA. So Shaw has been sent packing. Cone is promoted to AAA. He had an ERA of 3 with 2 wins and no losses in Memphis. And while Melido Perez won't be 20 until next February, he was 6-0 with a 1.27 ERA in Fort Myers. He takes Cone's spot in Memphis.

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My record 9-21; 7th; 8 games behind Texas
Real Life: 15-15; 4th; 3 games behind California
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Old 03-26-2019, 07:12 PM   #22
webrian
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Your patience with this team is worth building a statue to.

Way back in OOTP17, I got tired of Beckwith's inconsistency. He'd pitch well in low-leverage situations and get hammered every time the score was tied or close. I traded him and prospect Melido Perez to the Reds for Cesar Cedeno sometime in June. I hoped the extra offense a creaky old Cedeno might bring would offset having to count on the rusted husk of Dennis Leonard to fill Beckwith's bullpen spot.

Cedeno did fine (he hit around .260 in the No. 2 hole) but the bullpen fell apart and my Royals failed to even win 80 games. I started bringing Quiz in in the seventh, then the sixth and sometimes even the fifth inning and seeing if I could count on Jones or Farr at the back end. I put Bud Black in the pen and went with a 4-man rotation.

The 1985 Royals, I am convinced, are OOTP's version of the old Oregon Trail game. It's a compelling challenge, a goal that almost seems reachable (and history proves that it is) ... until we all end up killing and eating each other in the mountains.

What you're doing, though, is even more immersive than what I did, and I believe will be more rewarding. Stay healthy, hit a good stretch where you can put either a long-ish win streak (6-9 games) or a series of shorter ones together, try to get back to around .500 by the All-Star Break, it's still doable. The teams ahead of you will fall back to around .500 by then as well. Then you can pick them off in divisional play over the long summer as gravity and mediocrity restore order.

I am intrigued to see how Al Holland does. This could turn out to be a pretty good move.
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Old 03-26-2019, 07:36 PM   #23
so49as
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Game 31
4 – Royals
7 – Cleveland

WP – Vern Ruhle (4-3)
LP – Al Holland (0-1)

Well, my computer shut down twice in the middle of the game. Down by 6 runs each time, I was happy the third time was a charm, but my bullpen failed again. This time with the help of an Onix Concepcion error. Holland gave up 4 runs (2 earned) in the eighth against the likes of George Vukovich, and Jerry Willard.

Sigh

Cowen got his first Royal hit on the year, and Orta was 0-5 from the 2-spot. Gura did give up only 2 runs in 6 innings in his spot start.



Game 32
2 – Royals
3 – Cleveland

WP – Roy Smith (2-1)
LP – Mike Jones (0-3)

Probably should have let LaCoss go more than a third of an inning but you never know when the game is gonna go 12 innings. Gubicza (27 pitches) pitched into the 8th and LaCoss finished the inning. Holland was off limits so Quiz tossed 3 scoreless innings. No one else to turn to left Mike Jones coming in. On the second pitch of the 12th, he served up game winning homer to Brook Jacoby.

Double sigh...

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Swept by Cleveland but didn't lose any ground to Texas.

A fifth of the way through the season, Balboni is on pace for 50 home runs and is tied for the American League lead.
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My record 9-23; 7th; 8 games behind Texas
Real Life: 17-15; 4th; 2.5 games behind California
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Old 03-26-2019, 08:00 PM   #24
so49as
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Game 33
3 – Royals
2 – Milwaukee

WP – Bret Saberhagen (3-4)
LP – Teddy Higuera (2-2)

With LaCoss and Jones the only rested bullpen options, I pushed Saberhagen to complete the game. And he stranded the tying run at third. Frank White had 2 solo homers.



Game 34
3 – Royals
4 – Milwaukee

WP – Ray Burris (3-2)
LP – Dan Quisesnberry (1-2)

Quisenberry blew his third save. Sheridan singled in 2 in the 8th to push us ahead 3-2. Frank White hit his 8th home run in the 5th. Cecil Cooper knocked in Jim Gantner and Ernie Riles in the 9th.



Game 35
Rained out – Doubleheader scheduled for August 27th.

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Texas has lost 5 in a row to White Sox, Yankees and Detroit. We start a 3-game set in Arlington next.

Promoted Farr to the Major League Roster and optioned Jones to AAA. Farr had an ERA of 4.50 with a record of 4-3 as a starter in Omaha.

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My record 10-24; 7th; 8 games behind Chicago
Real Life: 18-17; 4th; 2.5 games behind California
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Old 03-27-2019, 07:57 AM   #25
so49as
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Game 35
13 – Royals
3 – Texas

WP – Buddy Black (2-3)
LP – Joe Price (2-4)

Sometimes nearly everything clicks. All starters got a hit except Frank White, who did still score once and knock in a run. Wilson and Brett had 4 hits each; Cowens and Wathan had 3. The latter two also had their first home runs of the year. 31 Total bases!

Black pitched OK after missing a week. 6 walks against 2 K's, but only 2 hits and 2 runs. Farr allowed a run in a 3-inning save.



Game 36
10 – Royals
5 – Texas

WP – Mark Gubicza (3-2)
LP – Mike Mason (2-3)

God Bless Texas! Concepcion was the odd man without a hit today. White seems to be breaking from his slump. He and Brett had 3 hits. No home runs, but Sundberg had a triple.

Gubicza pitched well. 3 hits, 3 walks, 3 K's in 7 innings. He gave up an unearned run in the 7th, so with a shutout out of the equation, I wanted to get a couple innings for the bullpen. LaCoss gave up 4 in 1.2 innings. 2 blowouts in his 8 games and his ERA has ballooned to over 10. He has an ERA of 3.17 in the other 8 games.



Game 37
1- Royals
0 – Texas

WP – Bret Saberhagen (4-4)
LP – Dave Rozema (1-3)

Certainly not the same offensive output, just 6 hits and the lone run scored by Willie Wilson in the 3rd off a Brett double, but with Saberhagen in nearly unstoppable form, it didn't matter.

I don't necessarily trust a starter in the 9th with a 1-run lead, but with uneven results from Holland and Quisenberry, I let Saberhagen roll.


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Chicago is the only AL West team over .500, at 18-17. They are up next at home.

I shopped LaCoss, and there is a market for him. The highly paid veteran pitcher market. I could get Phil Niekro for $1m a year, and even Rollie Fingers at $212k a year. Niekro seems like a lot just to push a young starter out of the rotation, but Fingers. It seems a little unrealistic, even with Milwaukee in 6th place.

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My record 13-24; 7th; 6 games behind Chicago
Real Life: 20-18; 4th; 2.5 games behind California
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Old 03-27-2019, 08:04 AM   #26
so49as
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I love the Oregon Trail analogy. Up until this morning it felt like I was getting swept away in a creek outside of Lawrence Kansas! Hopefully dysentary doesn't get me near Denver.

I haven't used Quiz as much as real life, and I don't know if that's a product of not many close games. 5 games with save opportunities in May, and he's blown 2 of them, saved 1 and Saberhagen has tossed complete games in the other two. He's on pace for 9 this year, but I think they'll come around again.
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Old 03-27-2019, 01:04 PM   #27
webrian
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Quote:
Originally Posted by so49as View Post
I love the Oregon Trail analogy. Up until this morning it felt like I was getting swept away in a creek outside of Lawrence Kansas! Hopefully dysentary doesn't get me near Denver.

I haven't used Quiz as much as real life, and I don't know if that's a product of not many close games. 5 games with save opportunities in May, and he's blown 2 of them, saved 1 and Saberhagen has tossed complete games in the other two. He's on pace for 9 this year, but I think they'll come around again.
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Starting to exploit the soft underbelly of the AL West with a 3-game sweep at Texas. Boy, did your Royals need that. But getting swept by Cleveland right before that has got to hurt. But you got games with Seattle, Milwaukee, ChiSox ... don't have to make it all up at once, but it's an opportunity to get some forward momentum going.

Slowly re-tooling the bullpen will help you get more games into Quiz's hands. The Royals had a young, talented rotation in 1985, but if the middle relievers can't get the job done, it kinda goes for naught. I often found myself leaving starters in for *one more batter* because I didn't trust the middle men. And, of course, that one more batter tended to rip a double through the gap.

Steve Farr should be more reliable than Jones and Beckwith. I even used him as a backup two-inning closer when Quiz needed rest.
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Old 03-27-2019, 01:16 PM   #28
so49as
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Yup. That solid bridge from the starters to Quisenberry is important. Hopefully I've got it worked out with Farr and Holland!

Farr seems an opposite to Quisenberry ratings wise. Quis has more Movement and Control. Farr has more stuff. Two different style pitchers who should drive hitters crazy, but I'm not sure if OOTP models that.
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Old 03-28-2019, 08:43 PM   #29
so49as
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Game 38
2 – Chicago
3 – Royals

WP – Charlie Leibrandt (3-5)
LP – Tom Seaver (3-4)
SV – Dan Quisenberry (3)

Two out lightning against Tom Terrific in the 6th. Concepcion reached on a hit batter, Wilson singled, and White walked. Brett then singled in Concepcion and Wilson. That put us up for good. In 8 innings, Leibrandt scattered 9 hits and both of his walks were intentional.



Game 39
8 – Chicago
3 – Royals

WP – Britt Burns (6-2)
LP – Buddy Black (2-4)

Felt closer than it was. Down 4-1 but Farr loaded the bases and Carlton Fisk hit a grand slam.



Game 40
3 – Chicago
0 – Royals

WP – Floyd Bannister (3-5)
LP – Mark Gubicza (3-3)

Bannister pitched a great game, 5-hit shutout.


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OF Robert Bell won the Florida State League Player of the Week. He had 3 HR's and 7 RBI's. He's hitting .325 with 7 HR's and 16 RBI's on the year.

A quarter of the way through the season and dang is it looking bleak! Balboni, Orta, McRae, and Motley have gone cold (All hitting around .215 in May). Concepcion is permanently cold.

Bud Black and Mark Gubicza had ERAs under 4 for May. Jackson, Leibrandt and Saberhagen were under 3!
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My record 14-26; 7th; 7 games behind Chicago
Real Life: 23-18; 2nd; 1.5 games behind California
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Old 03-28-2019, 08:45 PM   #30
so49as
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Team is 13th in runs scored in the AL, but 4th in Home Runs. 14th in On base percentage. Something for me to focus on.

Pitching wise in the AL, we're first in FIP and WAR. 4th in Runs allowed; Starters ERA is 4th, but the bullpen ERA is 14th. That should improve
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Old 03-28-2019, 11:56 PM   #31
webrian
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Quote:
Originally Posted by so49as View Post
Team is 13th in runs scored in the AL, but 4th in Home Runs. 14th in On base percentage. Something for me to focus on.

Pitching wise in the AL, we're first in FIP and WAR. 4th in Runs allowed; Starters ERA is 4th, but the bullpen ERA is 14th. That should improve
=======================

I don't know if it will help, but I think in 1985 Buddy Biancalana eventually overtook Onix Concepcion for the starting SS job. His ratings are slightly worse in OOTP, but he did seem to give KC a spark IRL.

One thing that really helped the Royals in 85 was getting Lonnie Smith from the Cardinals for basically nothing. After the emergence of Vince Coleman, Smith was just taking up space in STL, but he was a huge difference-maker for the Royals -- just imagine swapping out Sheridan/Jones for essentially a second Willie Wilson to put at the top of the lineup.

It looks like your starters are coming around, and you've taken steps to mend the bullpen.

What really puts pressure on that bullpen (besides being awful) is the dearth of offense, especially when a couple of key bats go cold. I think you need one more bat. Having said that, it's impossible in OOTP to pry Smith away from the Cardinals, so that's a problem.

But ... you do have some prospects .... not sure if a real-life GM would mortgage the future while the team is 12 games under .500, but it's something to consider.
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Old 03-29-2019, 08:27 AM   #32
so49as
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I did a little shopping around this morning and found I could get Lonnie Smith for minor league catcher Chris Jelic and Motley or another OF (Jones or Sheridan, can't remember). Then I saw Smith's OF ratings. 4 ranger; 4 error; 6 arm. I think I'd be better off with McRae and Orta in left. I'm currently 10th in defensive efficiency so I'll keep looking.

Didn't see many shortstops that are better than what I have, so I'll probably check some of the better ones and see what the cost is. I did switch Biancalana and Concepcion to play every other day. Small Sample size, but Buddy is hitting 300, so I may as well ride him while he's 'hot'.
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Old 03-29-2019, 10:26 AM   #33
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How is your record on one run games? That seemed to have made the difference for Howser.
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Old 03-29-2019, 06:05 PM   #34
so49as
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How is your record on one run games? That seemed to have made the difference for Howser.
4-3 since acquiring Holland; 1-7 before!

Although Holland was was only a part of 1 of the 3 losses.

Quisenberry is 1-2 with 2 saves in those season wide 5-10 1-run record.

7-7 since acquiring Holland.
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Old 03-29-2019, 07:06 PM   #35
so49as
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Game 41
3 – Texas
4 – Royals

WP – Mike LaCoss (1-0)
LP – Burt Hooton (1-2)
SV – Dan Quisenberry (4)

Accidentally hit 'quick play' so I didn't manage this one. With the game tied in the 8th, the AI relieved Saberhagen with LaCoss. Lefty Pete O'Brien was the batter coming up. :shrug:

Wathan pinch ran for Brett in the 8th and was doubled in by Orta. Quisenberry went around the horn with ground outs (4-3; 6-3; 5-3) for his 4th save.



Game 42
6 – Texas
4 – Royals

WP – Dickie Noles (4-1)
LP – Danny Jackson (1-3)
SV – Dave Schmidt (3)

Pulled Jackson with 2 outs in the 7th and a 1-run lead. He'd given up successive hits to Nick Capra and Wayne Tolleson. I brought Farr in to face Gary Ward, who doubled scoring Capra and Tolleson. Holland gave up Texas's' 6th run in the 8th.



Game 43
3 – Texas
7 – Royals

WP – Charlie Leibrandt (4-5)
LP – Jeff Russell (1-4)

Leibrandt made it easy, giving up 3 runs in 8 innings, all unearned after Gary Ward reached on a Leibrandt error. Balboni hit his first home run in 2 weeks, his 11th in the first. Balboni, Wilson and Sheridan had 2 RBI's each.

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I'll take 2 of 3. Positive step in the right direction. Only 5 games out of first. Chicago is 1 game below 500.

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My record 16-27; 7th; 5 games behind Chicago
Real Life: 25-19; 1st; Tied for 1st with California
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Old 03-29-2019, 07:15 PM   #36
so49as
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After the game I picked up a new left fielder. Hoping for a little consistency and an ability to get on base.

I sent minor league catcher Chris Jelic to the Athletics for 32 y/o Dave Collins and 24 y/o A-ball catcher Brian Dorsett.

Collins has only played in 8 games this year, but hit .308 for Toronto last year with 15 triples and 60 stolen bases.

Collins will slot into the 2nd spot in the lineup with White sliding down to cleanup. He also brings some more leadership to the clubhouse.

Lynn Jones accepted an assignment to AAA. Rich Murray was released from AAA to stay at 25 in Omaha.
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Old 03-30-2019, 10:47 AM   #37
so49as
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Game 44
5 – Royals
0 – Chicago

WP – Bud Black (3-4)
LP – Britt Burns (6-)

Black tossed a complete game shutout, holding the White Sox to 4 hits. 7 Royals had hits. Collins goes 2-5 in his debut. 5 different players picked up RBI's. A good all-around game.




Game 45
6 – Royals
0 – Chicago

WP – Mark Gubicza (4-3)
LP – Floyd Bannister (3-6)

Gubicza one-upped Black by only allowing 2 hits for his complete game shutout. Cowens was the only Royal to not get a hit, but reached on a walk. Collins was 2-4. Sundberg 3-5 with 2 RBI's.




Game 46
7 – Royals
3 – Chicago

WP – Bret Saberhagen (5-4)
LP – Rich Dotson (4-4)

Saberhagen gave up a run in the 2nd to break a team 19 inning shutout streak. The entire offense wasn't spot on with the bottom 4 (Orta, Wathan, Sheridan, Concepcion) went 0-17. Brett homered in the first and Balboni dropped a grandslam in the 7th.

Collins went 3-5 and stole 2 bases. Wilson stole 3.



Game 47
2 – Royals
0 – Chicago

WP – Danny Jackson (2-3)
LP – Tim Lollar (0-3)
SV – Quisenberry (5)

Danny Jackson was into the 6th inning of his complete game shutout but left the game. Still waiting to hear on his injury. Gura, Farr, Holland and Quisenberry took the last 3 and 2/3 innings for the teams 3rd shutout in 4 games.

Motley went 4-4 and Collins continued his hot hitting going 2-4 with 2 RBI's


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Winning streak sits at 5 games.

Collin is 9-18 since joining the team and has 4 stolen bases.

Jumped from 7th to 4th and sit only 1 game behind Texas. Texas is also 5 games below 500. The real life team was swept by the White Sox. Nice to turn that around.
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My record 20-27; 4th; 1 game behind Texas
Real Life: 25-23; 3rd; 2 games behind California

Last edited by so49as; 03-30-2019 at 10:51 AM.
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Old 03-30-2019, 10:50 AM   #38
so49as
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Following the game I acquired IF Jerry Royster from the Padres for minor league outfielder Gary Thurman. Thurman was hitting .308 in Fort Myers with 13 SB.

Royster doesn't have the fielding range and ability as Concepcion or Biancalana but was hitting .100 points higher than Onix. He won't embarrass himself at short though, and can play anywhere in the field in a pinch.

Concepcion cleared waivers and was optioned to AAA.
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Old 03-30-2019, 08:57 PM   #39
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Game 48 – June 3rd
11 – Milwaukee
7 – Royals

WP – Bryan Clutterbuck (5-0)
LP – Charlie Leibrandt (4-6)

Scored 4 in the first on a Brett double; White triple and Sundberg sacrifice. But those free bases can kill you. Leibrandt walked the bases loaded in the third and Ted Simmons knocked 395 ft grand slam.

Leibrandt gave up 7 in 6 innings, and then Farr, Gura, and LaCoss gave up runs in each inning they appeared.

In the ninth, Royster singled and Wilson homered, but too little too late.



Game 49 – June 4th
2 – Milwaukee
4 – Royals

WP – Bud Black (4-3)
LP – Tim Leary (1-3)
SV – Dan Quisenberry (6)

Leary was cruising in the 7th and I wasn't legitimetly worried the offense hadn't shown up. But Wilson doubled; Collins walked; they double stole; and Brett cranked a 416 ft home run into right center to push us up for good.



Game 50 – June 5th
9 – Milwaukee
10 – Royals

WP – Mark Gubicza (5-3)
LP – Moose Haas (3-5)
SV – Dan Quisenberry (7)

Holland and Quisenberry cracked, each giving up a run, but we'd built up a comfortable and insurmountable lead by then.

All of the nine starters collected a hit. Collins and Brett had 3 each. Brett had 4 RBI's of his 3 singles. Wilson and Collins had back-to-back triples in the 3rd.



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Got word that Danny Jackson would be out for 6 weeks with an elbow strain. I won't need a fifth starter until the 11th of June.

Not sure what to exactly do with the #5 spot. LaCoss has had 2 bad games in his 10 and his ERA sits at 9.75. Gura has 1 spot start where he got a quality start, but no decision. His ERA is at 3.86.

On the trade block are Mike Krukow and Don Sutton, but the Giants and the A's are looking for one of my starting pitchers. Doesn't seem like a good idea.

David Cone is in AAA, but in 3 starts has an ERA over 5, with twice as many walks as strikeouts. He had an ERA of 3 in 6 AA starts.

In the interim, I promoted Mark Huismann to Jackson's roster spot. He had a 4.56 ERA in AAA with a record of 2-4, and 5 saves as the Omaha closer.

* Quisenberry's 7 saves has him on a pace for 23. He's 6 behind league leaders Dennis Lamp (Toronto) and Dave Righetti (New York).


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My record 22-28; 2nd; 1 game behind Chicago
Real Life: 26-24; 2nd; 1.5 games behind California
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Old 03-31-2019, 10:39 AM   #40
so49as
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Game 51 – June 7th
3 – Royals
1 – California

WP – Bret Saberhagen (6-4)
LP – Kirk McCaskil (6-5)
SV – Dan Quisenberry (8)

The Angels made it interesting in the ninth with runners on first and third, but Quiz got Ruppert Jones to pop out to end the game. Balboni provided the difference hitting his 13th home run in the 6th. Saberhagen struck out 7.



Game 52 – June 8th
2 – Royals
1 – California

WP – Charlie Leibrandt (5-6)
LP – Ron Romanick (3-8)
SV – Al Holland (1)

Errors by Balboni, Leibrandt, and White were disappointing, but didn't ultimately impact the outcome. White singled in Wilson and Collins in the 6th and that was all that Leibrandt needed. He struck out 4 in 7 innings. Holland got the final 4 outs for his first Royal save. Quiz could have pitched, but having thrown in 5 of June's 6 games, (and the bottom of the order coming up) I gave him the day off.



Game 53 – June 9th
9 – Royals
4 – California

WP – Bud Black (5-4)
LP – Bob Kipper (0-4)

4 Royal Home Runs – Brett (11), McRae (1), Wathan (2), Balboni (14) – brought in 7 Royal runs. Black pitched well enough to pick up a quality start. Wilson extended his hitting streak to 11 games; Collins to 14 games.



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Wilson and Collins have also stolen bases in 6 straight games, including 9 of 10. They've been a great 1-2 punch at the top of the lineup in the 10 games since Collins was acquired. In those 10 games they have a combined 21 runs and are hitting .405. The team is 9-1.

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My record 25-28; 1st! .5 game ahead of Texas
Real Life: 28-25; 3rd; 5 games behind California
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