Keep calm and carry on....

[NoOne]

this is why you should trust ratings -- well-known ratings*.

this may have been the most abysmal start to a season i have ever encountered, yet. i should post the career of the 32 y.o. RP that was ~2.20 era dominant over ~800ip going into this year. the only reason he wasn't the closer was because someone was finishing up a long career. he had a 7 e.r.a. in june, and i don't often bench RP.

now, this is condensed because of how much talent in on the team... it was a no-brainer to wait it out. but, in similar contexts, you should always do the same thing. if there is no mechanism that caused my RP's blowout, i made a mistake there. he's down to a 5 e.r.a. with minima work, now.

i should not have dropped him. he's my best RP and he's MR-use less often. if i didn't have 2 other suitable closers, i would never have done such a thing. i have the liberty of swapping a few guys into any RP role.

anyway, a team that should be ~.800 had a losing month without any catostrophic injuries or other similar acts of god.

i thought it was funny to show how low an elite team can drop. not so hard to believe a ~.600 team can play under .500 for a few months in any given year, eh? don't be so hard on your teams if they are good

while they have come back well in july and august, i cannot expect such success to continue. it won't even out fully this year, but over time it does.

edit: lol, they fell on their faces in september... what a trash year.

[RonCo]

That said, an .800 team has considerably less than .01% chance of posting a sub .500 record in 26 games by random nature. One first assumes the schedule got particularly tougher that month?

[NoOne]

early on it looked odd... but by the end it was fairly normal. 1 team had a really hot start @ .670-680 or so through ... i really don't recall but ~50-60 games in. by the end my division looked pretty normal with a few at the top and the rest where they fall.. i think i had 2 90-some loss teams in division too. 10 team division -- all in-division, balanced schedule.

typically 3-4 teams are >.500... a couple around .500 etc... sometimes one of the better teams is ~100wins, but not often and not this time. that high-600s team dropped to 530-540 by end.

oh, i didn't look at end but i was "-7" through ~50-60g according to pyt. so, defintely not winning as often as i should have based on rune differential.

all i did was make sure my top 2 starters pitched every 5 day while simming forward a day. i didn't look at much, especially this time, because the frustration was mounting as i kept repeating .. "WTF?!?!" in my head. i thought april was bad, lol.... i had no idea may was possible.

they 'should' be an .800 team... they have not been, yet, with 2 abysmal years in a row. i really do think it's a young coach with no experience mixed with every other possible factor amounting to this. at this point my familiarity of what to expect is more than dependable.

my offense sputtered for 50-60g, my closer had a 1 in 10 bad year, and ???

it's a .01% chance relative to all possible circumstances, but when you factor in those contexts, while i bet it is still quite rare it's not quite 1/10,000. not one SP had a terrible year is the hilarious thing. only 1 rp had a blowout all season. my front 5 batters played consistently except for 1 batter had a slow start. he played musical chairs wit a similarly rated player with less speed at 2nd or 6th in lineup.

thank god pot is legal now.... i nearly threw a keyboard through my tv. i haven't played since... that took me 2 sittings as it was to get through the regular season -- a faster portion of calendar for me.

about 20-30 seasons ago i started tweaking my LTM to raise walks a bit... i may have caused some problems. i may have closed the gap between top and bottom and all the ramifications that come with that in regard to competition being tighter. so, admittedly my perception of this team may be off due to that fact. it's not far off, though, so i'm not sold on that. similar BA and slugging after botching it, but walk rate is even lower than before.

time for a new league.