Historical back data w/ randomized development?

[Dvd Avins]

Is it possible to take actual players through a given year and then have them age and develop based only on what they had done up to that point, rather than having the sim trying to match their career totals?

[Chicagofan76]

Originally Posted by Dvd Avins

Is it possible to take actual players through a given year and then have them age and develop based only on what they had done up to that point, rather than having the sim trying to match their career totals?

I believe so, but I dont have my historical league loaded right now I will try to get back to ya on this 1.

[Sparrow]

Yes, when you start a league, just have recalculation off. The in-game development engine will dictate how players develop.

[Dvd Avins]

So if I start in 1966, I can expect that Vada Pinson will have a much better career than he actually did? If I start in 1993, Randy Johnson will be about as good a gamble as if I started with Bobby Witt in 1991?

I realize that's exactly what a lot of historical re-players *don't* want. It's a selling point that Babe Ruth will perform like Babe Ruth. But I don't want to 'cheat' by knowing the 'future.'

[SteveP]

Originally Posted by Dvd Avins

I realize that's exactly what a lot of historical re-players *don't* want.

It's an open question as to what a majority of historical gamers want. However, I would say that those who want to see players perform exactly as they did IRL are probably more vocal on these boards. So it may seem that they dominate the discussion of what should happen with game design and how you should play historical leagues. But don't take it to heart.

I play with recalc off, and also retire according to history off, and I use the player development model (with some small adjustment to the default setting) and also the default talent change randomness. I think 90-95% of players in my leagues still have careers similar to what they did IRL. OTOH, I cannot be certain about the future career of any given player. That makes for a much more interesting gaming experience IMO.

[Spritze]

Originally Posted by Dvd Avins

So if I start in 1966, I can expect that Vada Pinson will have a much better career than he actually did?

Nope, Vada might be better, the same, or worse. You just never know, you know.

Originally Posted by Dvd Avins

If I start in 1993, Randy Johnson will be about as good a gamble as if I started with Bobby Witt in 1991?

Yup.

[Dvd Avins]

If it's based on what he did up to that point, the chances are that Pinson would go on to a HOF career. His actual career was over toward one extreme of what could have happened. But as you say, you never *know*. He could have driven a car into a tree.

[Sparrow]

Keep in mind the game still gives these players potential based on what they did over their career, not just up to the point where you start the game. So the game will no longer recalculate the ratings past the start of the game, but they will import with potential. The different options for potential can be seen here.

[Dvd Avins]

Originally Posted by Sparrow

Keep in mind the game still gives these players potential based on what they did over their career, not just up to the point where you start the game. So the game will no longer recalculate the ratings past the start of the game, but they will import with potential.here.

Ugh. Thanks for clarifying that. That's a big problem for what I want out of a sim. It confirms what had been my impression and is why I didn't buy this game years ago--until I got a ridiculously good offer through Impulse.

If I want to see if I could do better than Dombrowski and Duquette did with the Expos when they brought up all that talent in the early 1990s, I don't want already know that Walker is a keeper but Grissom and DeShields should be traded while their value is high.

I wish there was a game otherwise as rich as OOTP but where potential growth was assigned based only on physical characteristics in combination with the statistical record to date and possibly actual historical scouting to date, but only if that can be done systematically to minimize bias.

[Spritze]

Simply remove future years from the db and you'll get exactly what you are looking for.

[Dvd Avins]

Ooh, that sounds good. There will still be "potential" for young players to grow, even though the game is looking to base that on data it won't be able to find? I guess so, otherwise it would be broken for players who are still active in real life. Thank you very much!

Now I have to see where the database is and how to edit it, but I doubt that will be hard. This could be fun! (Not that I need another game to get immersed in.)

[SteveP]

Spritze may be correct, but I am having some trouble understanding the impact of that.

The OP says:

I want to see if I could do better than Dombrowski and Duquette did with the Expos when they brought up all that talent in the early 1990s

It seems to me that a rookie who has a mediocre season his first year (which could be a Sept callup) will develop based only on what he did that year. There is nothing else but career stats to tell the game what kind of "talent" this player really has. Take away the career stats and Sandy Koufax looks like an average pitcher based on what he did starting out. Yet, the Dodgers probably knew he was better than that.

So how do you get "all that talent" without data to define what the "talent" actually is?

At some point, doesn't it just become easier to play fictional with scouting turned on, rather than stripping career data from the Lahman DB to have players of unknown talent with RL player names?

Anyway, this is just because I am a bit puzzled. If the OP likes the solution, then that's the way to go.

[Dvd Avins]

If there are no minor league stats to go on, or systematic scouting data, then I guess there's no way to do what I want as far as rookies go. No matter what, some information will be lost. The game can (and IMO should) include knowable information of the kind that's in practice available for all (or almost all) players of an era. But assuming there's no such database of scouting reports, Koufax could fall through the cracks. I'm OK with that. But the Royals trading for Amos Otis should know based on minor league stats that they've got someone better than his cups of coffee with the Mets would have indicated.

[SteveP]

Originally Posted by Dvd Avins

If there are no minor league stats to go on, or systematic scouting data, then I guess there's no way to do what I want as far as rookies go.

Even the modded DBs that appear to have minor league stats derive those stats on a formula based on the the guy's first season. AFAIK, there are no DBs that include RL minor league stats.

Have you considered dialing up the talent change randomness to 200, for example? That way, you'd get a lot more uncertainty about how guys might develop. You could also change the potential rating scale to 1-5 or 2-8 (and possibly turning off the rating stars altogether), so that you'd have very limited knowledge of what changes to potential ratings were occurring. Don't know if that would work for you -- just top of the head thinking.

[Dvd Avins]

Originally Posted by SteveP

Have you considered dialing up the talent change randomness to 200, for example? That way, you'd get a lot more uncertainty about how guys might develop. You could also change the potential rating scale to 1-5 or 2-8 (and possibly turning off the rating stars altogether), so that you'd have very limited knowledge of what changes to potential ratings were occurring. Don't know if that would work for you -- just top of the head thinking.

I'll look at that. I'm new to this sim (looked at the demo version a few years ago, iirc) and played some Mogul from time to time) so I don't know what all these settings do (or even where to find them yet) but I really do appreciate the help.

[SteveP]

Originally Posted by Dvd Avins

I'll look at that. I'm new to this sim (looked at the demo version a few years ago, iirc) and played some Mogul from time to time) so I don't know what all these settings do (or even where to find them yet) but I really do appreciate the help.

There are 3 key places to look at for the relevant options:

1. At the very beginning of creating a new league using the Wizard. If you click on Advanced, you get some choices about how you want the game to calculate potential (I would suggest "career" rather than "remaining years" which is the default). Be sure that you turn off recalc in a later window in the Wizard -- if you leave recalc on at this stage, I believe the game will use the default method of calculating potential, regardless of what you have chosen.

2. Game Setup/Player & Picture Options.

3. League Setup/Historical, which has a couple of relevant options.

[Spritze]

Originally Posted by SteveP

Even the modded DBs that appear to have minor league stats derive those stats on a formula based on the the guy's first season. AFAIK, there are no DBs that include RL minor league stats.

The Spritze mod is based on the players minor league stats. Gambo too.

[SteveP]

Originally Posted by Spritze

The Spritze mod is based on the players minor league stats. Gambo too.

Ah, my bad ... Obviously I am not keeping up on developments.

[Spritze]

Developmentally speaking developments seem to be developing mostly through devolution. I personally have devolved as much as my development will allow.

[SteveP]

Originally Posted by Spritze

I personally have devolved as much as my development will allow.

A development of truly Darwinian proportions, I'm sure. Where will it all end??? The world, agog (), awaits further developments, or devolvements, as the case may be.