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Old 05-28-2006, 08:04 PM   #21
Long_Long_Name
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ctorg
One stat I'd like to see is something along the lines of OBP*2+SLG. I think OBP and SLG are important, but OBP is a good deal more so. It's probably the most important of the basic stats. It basically gives you how often the guy manages not to create an out.
I remember your suggestion to have fields where we could enter our own statistical formulae. I thought it was brilliant - sadly, I didn't think about it fast enough. I'll still suggest it to the beta team, but we're getting close to release to add features, I think.
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Old 05-28-2006, 09:34 PM   #22
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But that doesn't really measure power effectively, is my point.
Ok, all I'm saying is that SLG doesn't suppose perfect increases in value, like you said. It's just a measure of average # of bases hit for; you can use that metric for whatever you like.
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Old 05-28-2006, 10:07 PM   #23
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OBP or SLG, I think it depends on what spot of the lineup.

For a leadoff-man, I wouldnt care if he hit .180, if he could draw enough walks to get the OBP to .400, I'd take him. OBP is most important thing offensively to me. Though for hitters 3 through 5 I want RBIs so power comes into play there.


Inevitably, I always end up playing Whitey (Herzog) ball. I want that slick fielding middle infield, and good quality pitching staff. I'll pay premium money to make sure I got 3 or 4 good starters and at least a quality bullpen (not necessarily great closer, I have done good with bullpen-by committee). If I lose some power in my lineup so be it. I might overpay for a pitcher here and there. But if a guy hits 30 HR but only drives in 65 runs? He aint getting that 10 mil from me. I have planted poor man's Wade Boggs clones in the middle of my lineup and got similar numbers to Tom Herr that one season in 1985 (What was 110 RBIs on 6 or 7 HRs?) and done fine. I have a lot of cases where I score 6 runs in a game but 5 in one inning. I got started and kept them moving and next thing I know I've put up 3 or 4 runs. And if it is one of my top starters that is usually enough to win 3-2 or so. I also like to have as many A or B range players out there too (especially 2B,SS,CF, and one corner OF).

Sorry, if I got off topic. But, short answer look at OBP for 1-3, SLG 3-5. 6-9 it depnds on how they compliment the team.

As far as Jason Giambi in the leadoff. I did do that one time with a guy one time who had ridiculous BB rating but power and no speed. I lead off with him against righties, batted him 7th vs. lefties (he was a lefty hitter). He hit .290, OBP above .400. 30 HRs 96 RBIs and 1 SB. And team kept winning. Probably could have been ROY if he hadnt gotten 150 ABs over previous 2 seasons on the AAA-Major shuttle.
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Old 05-29-2006, 02:49 AM   #24
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I'd highly recommend anybody who is curious why we place such a premium on BA to run a deadball era league for a little while. Sooo much of a player's value from that period is nicely summed up in his batting average. And for more fun, sooo much of his value in the field is summed up by fielding average. Like many, many things in baseball, ideas that made sense 100 years ago have been passed down to the modern day, whether they still make sense or not.
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Old 05-29-2006, 03:21 AM   #25
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Originally Posted by Ruthian23
I hope for that some day, too. On the YES Network (the Yankees network) they have started displaying OBP, which is a step in the right direction. I don't know how many other broadcasts do that, though.

ESPN has been doing it for a while now.

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Old 05-29-2006, 02:34 PM   #26
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ESPN has been doing it for awhile now.
Really? I watch Sunday Night Baseball almost every week, and I've never even noticed that. Good for them.
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Old 06-03-2006, 10:13 PM   #27
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A brit named Mariners who likes the Red Sox.

Very ... interesting.

I like OPS as easy to calculate and highly reliable offesnive measure. I bet broadcasts will start showing SLG and OBA soon and then you can add it up yourself.
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Old 06-03-2006, 11:21 PM   #28
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This may not be the right thread to bring this up in, but...I was just editing some players, and I noticed that editing their strikeout abilities had no effect on their predicted stats. That is interesting because aren't we all in general agreement that players with higher strikeout totals have a statistically significant depression in BA? It makes me nervous that we could be generating players who can hit .380 but strike out 199 times in 550 PA. And I thought we dealt with this problem like years ago.

But maybe this is the exact right thread for this question, because if I'm way off base, no one will really care that much.
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Old 06-03-2006, 11:43 PM   #29
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I don't know about the new game, but that certainly wasn't something that was resolved in OOTP6.5.
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Old 06-03-2006, 11:44 PM   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sixto
That is interesting because aren't we all in general agreement that players with higher strikeout totals have a statistically significant depression in BA?
Batting average and strikeout rates are tied closely together for pitchers, but it's not necessarily the case for hitters. The 1924 batting champion also led the league in strikeouts (granted he might not be the best example ). There have been numerous players in history who hit for average and also struck out at a high clip. I think it's generally understood that hitters have much more control over their BIP% than pitchers do.

For a random example of a modern player who strikes out a lot and hits for a high average - Alex Rodriguez. I think it's quite possible (but very difficult) for a guy to strike out 200 times in a season and hit .350+ if the balls he puts in play are constantly hit hard.
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Old 06-03-2006, 11:59 PM   #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jason Moyer
For a random example of a modern player who strikes out a lot and hits for a high average - Alex Rodriguez. I think it's quite possible (but very difficult) for a guy to strike out 200 times in a season and hit .350+ if the balls he puts in play are constantly hit hard.
Alex Rodriguez has a .327 BABIP for his career. That's better than average (which is around .300), but certainly not outlandish. You're going to have a pretty hard time in general finding a major leaguer whose BABIP doesn't fall within the .250-.350 range. Past versions of OOTP consistently created players with BABIP below .200 or above .400 -- a function of strikeouts (and homeruns) being unrelated to batting average in the engine. That's the kind of thing sixto is alluding to, I think.
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Old 06-04-2006, 12:55 AM   #32
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yep.

and i could definitely be wrong about this, but i believe the effect is magnified for minor leaguers when translating their stats.

i know that PECOTA has this year seriously downgraded minor leaguers for whom OBP is their only skill. this also is something i hope we keep in mind going forward.

Last edited by sixto; 06-04-2006 at 12:58 AM.
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Old 06-04-2006, 01:39 PM   #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sixto
This may not be the right thread to bring this up in, but...I was just editing some players, and I noticed that editing their strikeout abilities had no effect on their predicted stats. That is interesting because aren't we all in general agreement that players with higher strikeout totals have a statistically significant depression in BA? It makes me nervous that we could be generating players who can hit .380 but strike out 199 times in 550 PA. And I thought we dealt with this problem like years ago.

But maybe this is the exact right thread for this question, because if I'm way off base, no one will really care that much.
I'll mention this in beta. This has bothered me in past versions too. Thanks for bringing it up.
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Old 06-04-2006, 11:21 PM   #34
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This is far from an exhaustive list, but whether you attack the problem from high average or high strikeouts, there are obviously limits to how many hits a man can get in ABs where he does not strike out. Andres Galarraga probably is the ultimate testament to what we're talking about here. He could not have won his batting title striking out like he did early in his career.

First column is AB, second is hits, third is SO, fourth is BA, fifth is AB-SO, and the last column is BA on non-SO ABs (including HR).
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Old 06-04-2006, 11:30 PM   #35
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Take away homeruns, and you get a much narrower band of results. It's extraordinarily difficult for a major league player to have more than 40% of balls that actually stay in the playing field fall for hits -- or to have fewer than 20% of them fall for hits.
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Old 06-04-2006, 11:34 PM   #36
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RonCo did some testing on this. Preliminary results show that OOTP 2006 is very close to actual MLB in this regard, at least in terms of game generated players.
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Old 06-04-2006, 11:39 PM   #37
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Did he also get the enhanced flavor injector free?

Thanks sporr.

re: removing HR, mylons, I'm not sure why we would do that for hitters...a pitcher grooves too many HR and it's bad, but for batters they are an outcome like any other, only better.

I found it fun that Jose Hernandez and Sammy Sosa both appear at the top and bottom of this list.

And now back to your regularly scheduled thread...I prefer OBP with some SLG sprinkled in. I don't like one-dimensional players, regardless of dimension.
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Old 06-05-2006, 12:07 AM   #38
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Originally Posted by sixto
re: removing HR, mylons, I'm not sure why we would do that for hitters...a pitcher grooves too many HR and it's bad, but for batters they are an outcome like any other, only better.
Well, except they're not an outcome like any other. The rest of the outcomes in your non-strikeout at-bats are dependent for their results on some combination (whose exact weights we don't know) of the hitter, pitcher, and the fielders. Homeruns leave the fielders out of the equation. Here's a thought experiment to illustrate what I'm saying. Picture a a very strange game, with one team made up of the hitters on that list, and the team facing them featuring, say, Rodrigo Lopez on the mound, but a bunch of twelve-year-olds in the field. You'd expect the homerun rate for all of those hitters to stay the same, but the other hit types would go way, way up. That's because the outcome of a homerun is as fundamentally different from the outcome of a double as a strikeout is to a 6-3 groundout.
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Old 06-05-2006, 01:05 AM   #39
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I do get your point, but on the other side, we are presuming that the batter has more control over whether he hits the ball hard enough to go over the fence than the fielders have ability to behave unlike 12-year-olds. And if batters had the ability to control the distance they hit the ball, they would hit it over the fence every time.

A batter who hits 10 HR down the lines will have 10 more HR than a batter who hits those 10 drives to CF. I mean, I could still be missing something, and maybe batters on average hit fewer balls to the deeper parts of the park.
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Old 06-05-2006, 09:16 AM   #40
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Originally Posted by sixto
I do get your point, but on the other side, we are presuming that the batter has more control over whether he hits the ball hard enough to go over the fence than the fielders have ability to behave unlike 12-year-olds. And if batters had the ability to control the distance they hit the ball, they would hit it over the fence every time.

A batter who hits 10 HR down the lines will have 10 more HR than a batter who hits those 10 drives to CF. I mean, I could still be missing something, and maybe batters on average hit fewer balls to the deeper parts of the park.
I'm not sure I understand what you're saying at all. Of course players have some control over how far they hit the ball. That's why you can get some players with 50 homeruns in a full season and some with 5. Batters have some control over every outcome of a plate appearance, and, judging by the amount of variability from player to player in homerun totals, they have more control over whether they'll hit a homerun or not than any other significant outcome.

I guess what confuses me is that you created a table that excludes every fielding-independent outcome -- except homeruns. Why leave homeruns in if you're excluding strikeouts and walks?
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