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Old 10-01-2019, 10:58 PM   #1
Willie M
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Opening 1000 Packs If You're Bored

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Old 10-02-2019, 03:42 AM   #2
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Thanks for letting us share in the moment.
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Old 10-02-2019, 10:20 AM   #3
CurlyKarkovice
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Anything awesome to report on the rip or a recording of the pack opening?
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Old 10-02-2019, 10:33 AM   #4
allenciox
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That was an awesome twitch-cast, Jairy! I had to go to bed when you still had about 300 packs to open. Any more surprises? That gave me such a boost to see all the great cards you got (especially perfect Cobb!)
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Old 10-02-2019, 04:06 PM   #5
Willie M
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Anything awesome to report on the rip or a recording of the pack opening?
Through 500 packs I had zero perfects and my best card was Al Hrabosky. Then I was able to get Cy Young to salvage the night. Looking at what has sold already/quick sales/what I'm trying to sell I imagine I'll make 200-300k profit.

Silvers were `1:19 (above mark)
Gold were 1:52 (below)
Diamond was 1:104 (way above mark)
Perfect was 1:1250

Only other perfects were Scherzer and Bregman (x2)

Ended up pulling out of 1000 packs:


Last edited by Willie M; 10-02-2019 at 04:11 PM.
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Old 10-02-2019, 04:12 PM   #6
Willie M
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That was an awesome twitch-cast, Jairy! I had to go to bed when you still had about 300 packs to open. Any more surprises? That gave me such a boost to see all the great cards you got (especially perfect Cobb!)
Thanks but it was perfect Cy
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Old 10-02-2019, 04:13 PM   #7
Willie M
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A user clipped the moment we opened Cy! We were 550+ packs in without a perfect, hence the excitement.

https://www.twitch.tv/jairywestside/...leMoonFrankerZ

Last edited by Willie M; 10-02-2019 at 04:17 PM.
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Old 10-02-2019, 06:02 PM   #8
allenciox
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As you mention, you were way over the mark for diamonds drawn. This sounded pretty extreme to me, perhaps their indications of diamond frequency is off?

I thought I would use binomial cumulative distribution function to calculate how often it would be this "good" for 1000 packs. It turns out that getting 48 or more diamond cards in 1000 packs (which is how many you got) would happen only 0.96% of the time, so I wonder if their indication of odds of drawing a diamond is off?
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Old 10-02-2019, 06:12 PM   #9
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As you mention, you were way over the mark for diamonds drawn. This sounded pretty extreme to me, perhaps their indications of diamond frequency is off?

I thought I would use binomial cumulative distribution function to calculate how often it would be this "good" for 1000 packs. It turns out that getting 48 or more diamond cards in 1000 packs (which is how many you got) would happen only 0.96% of the time, so I wonder if their indication of odds of drawing a diamond is off?
0.96% is still twice as likely as drawing a perfect in a given pack.
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Old 10-06-2019, 12:16 AM   #10
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As you mention, you were way over the mark for diamonds drawn. This sounded pretty extreme to me, perhaps their indications of diamond frequency is off?

I thought I would use binomial cumulative distribution function to calculate how often it would be this "good" for 1000 packs. It turns out that getting 48 or more diamond cards in 1000 packs (which is how many you got) would happen only 0.96% of the time, so I wonder if their indication of odds of drawing a diamond is off?
For what it's worth, I've opened 60 packs over the last few days on my non-OL teams and pulled 6 diamonds, and there is a 1.5% chance of pulling at least that many diamonds. However, I haven't had nearly as good pack luck with challenge mode packs in general, so it might just be a kind of reporting bias.
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Old 10-07-2019, 12:06 AM   #11
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I have been lucky enough to pull 3 Perfect cards this week alone on Packs. Unfortunately i wasted the odds on all live cards. Yelich, Cole and Tatis.
Imagine if it's Cobb, Young and Walter instead.
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Old 10-10-2019, 04:18 PM   #12
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https://www.twitch.tv/jairywestside/

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How many players are you allowed with inactives? I thought this number was less than 6,000?
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Old 10-10-2019, 04:22 PM   #13
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How many players are you allowed with inactives? I thought this number was less than 6,000?

Inactives are unlimited is my understanding.
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Old 10-10-2019, 05:10 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by QuantaCondor View Post
For what it's worth, I've opened 60 packs over the last few days on my non-OL teams and pulled 6 diamonds, and there is a 1.5% chance of pulling at least that many diamonds. However, I haven't had nearly as good pack luck with challenge mode packs in general, so it might just be a kind of reporting bias.
Also FWIW, I've opened about 85 packs with one team and have yet to pull a diamond at all. (But did get a live perfect, Trout)
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Old 10-14-2019, 02:14 PM   #15
Willie M
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Tonight is the night where we open 2000 packs on live stream (~9:00 pm est). Feel free to check in for some pack failure/fun.
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Old 10-14-2019, 09:03 PM   #16
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Tonight is the night where we open 2000 packs on live stream (~9:00 pm est). Feel free to check in for some pack failure/fun.
Best of luck!
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Old 10-22-2019, 07:43 PM   #17
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Tonight is the night where we open 2000 packs on live stream (~9:00 pm est). Feel free to check in for some pack failure/fun.
Anybody know the results? I have a theory packs really are positive expectation it's just that variance is so high, you have to have a large bankroll to make it work.
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Old 10-23-2019, 12:13 AM   #18
Willie M
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Anybody know the results? I have a theory packs really are positive expectation it's just that variance is so high, you have to have a large bankroll to make it work.
It wasn't a great night when I did it. Yogi was the best card I had - if I had to guess I probably lost 100-200k.
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Old 10-24-2019, 05:31 AM   #19
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Great!

By the way, the upcoming patch (which will also include Tournaments) will have a new pack opeining animation as an option, it's called "Instant" and be an awesome way to quickly opening tons of packs while also getting some nice graphical feedback (unlike the ugly dialog you get when disabling 3D). Loading times between packs have been reduced, too.
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Old 10-24-2019, 05:51 AM   #20
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Markus just casually drops tournaments in that last post, like it's no big thing...
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