Anyone else getting extra thin draft pools?

[qcbandits]

My bggest concern with the draft is there is no one that can be fast tracked through a minor league system. It's almost impossible to find someone over a half star currently

[Lukas Berger]

Originally Posted by qcbandits

My bggest concern with the draft is there is no one that can be fast tracked through a minor league system. It's almost impossible to find someone over a half star currently

Obviously we could change the current ratings to create more of these guys, but as of now I would say doing that would be somewhat unrealistic as well.

It does not seem this ever actually happens in real life anymore. 25 years ago it did for sure. Not so much now.

Just doing some quick research, of the players taken in the first 3 rounds of the draft in 2018 and 2019, only one, Nico Hoerner, has played in MLB at all, and he only has 20 games and is not a lock to make the Cubs roster this year.

If you include the first 3 rounds of 2017, then you get 6 guys who have played in MLB, but only 3 (Adam Haseley, Griffin Canning and Keston Hiura) who have played in more than 13 games and/or are likely to make their team's Opening Day rosters this year. Or would have been likely without getting injured, in Canning's case.

[SirMichaelJordan]

Originally Posted by qcbandits

My bggest concern with the draft is there is no one that can be fast tracked through a minor league system. It's almost impossible to find someone over a half star currently

Increase development rate.

[slugga27]

Threads like these make me glad that I play stats-only. How can I talk about potential when I don’t see ratings?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by chazzycat

I'm in agreement with OP, something seems off to me. I have been playing the base game for like 6 years so I'm pretty familiar with how drafting typically plays out.

I totally understand what everyone is saying, I'm not expecting impact players outside the top few picks. I get that later rounds are fliers, many will bust, etc. That's all good and realistic.

But my past two seasons (2nd and 3rd overall) have just had absolutely dreadful draft classes. The first one was normal but after that it's been awful. I have literally lost interest starting in the second round because there are no exciting prospects left already. And I don't mean "all star"...I mean "platoon role player ceiling" or "borderline useful bullpen arm". Even those guys are all gone already by the second round.

I would submit this is exactly why there is no real interest in televising the MLB draft like NFL or NBA. Or do they actually televise it now? I really don't know

I could probably expand that to no interest at all after the first 5 picks, maybe the first 3. As a Cubs fan I have seen them with very high picks many times over the years. I have been excited about the draft exactly 3 times... Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, and Kris Bryant. Other than that the others have just been names.

In OOTP the fun in the later rounds is to look at the player's ratings by category. Maybe good stuff but lacks control. High power potential but eye and contact would need to improve a lot to make it, but... theses guy are hard workers. Those are guys I take a chance on. I think real life is the same way. In the later rounds (and actually even in the late first round) you have to dig deeper into what tools the player offers along with his mental makeup. Some here want this to be an easy decision where in real life it is anything but.

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by Sin44

I agree with the original poster. I would like to see beefed up potential for draft classes.

I'm finding it hard discerning between good players and normal players. Wish there was an option to change this

There is, you scout the player and look at the tools he offers and try to foresee, with his mental makeup, if you think he can be coachable and improve on his weak areas.

My best P, and 2 time cy young award winner, 22 yrs old winning his first, was a 6th round pick. I took him because he had great velocity, GB pitcher, control was weak, but a good work ethic. As a 6th rounder he was a 20\20 guy. I could have looked at all of those 20/20 guys in that round, thrown up my hands and said "waste of time" but I didn't. I dug deep and found a gem. I also selected a SP in both the first and second rounds that year, where are they now? I have no idea

[SirMichaelJordan]

Originally Posted by Sweed

I would submit this is exactly why there is no real interest in televising the MLB draft like NFL or NBA. Or do they actually televise it now? I really don't know

I could probably expand that to no interest at all after the first 5 picks, maybe the first 3. As a Cubs fan I have seen them with very high picks many times over the years. I have been excited about the draft exactly 3 times... Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, and Kris Bryant. Other than that the others have just been names.

In OOTP the fun in the later rounds is to look at the player's ratings by category. Maybe good stuff but lacks control. High power potential but eye and contact would need to improve a lot to make it, but... theses guy are hard workers. Those are guys I take a chance on. I think real life is the same way. In the later rounds (and actually even in the late first round) you have to dig deeper into what tools the player offers along with his mental makeup. Some here want this to be an easy decision where in real life it is anything but.

That’s exactly how I draft in the later rounds and that’s how it should be.

Tip.

If OVR/POT means so much to you drafting outside the first round, then change the “ratings relative to” setting to a league where you think he’ll be playing next year (or choose a AAA league) and that should give you eye friendly ratings to look at when deciding between players.

Keep in mind with talent randomness, potential can change and that’s why it’s important to draft for a skill or a tool in later rounds and not the overall prospect’s talent.

Player A might have great fielding and some decent power but have poor contact potential. His contact potential CAN get better (or worse)

[qcbandits]

Originally Posted by Lukas Berger

Obviously we could change the current ratings to create more of these guys, but as of now I would say doing that would be somewhat unrealistic as well.

It does not seem this ever actually happens in real life anymore. 25 years ago it did for sure. Not so much now.

Just doing some quick research, of the players taken in the first 3 rounds of the draft in 2018 and 2019, only one, Nico Hoerner, has played in MLB at all, and he only has 20 games and is not a lock to make the Cubs roster this year.

If you include the first 3 rounds of 2017, then you get 6 guys who have played in MLB, but only 3 (Adam Haseley, Griffin Canning and Keston Hiura) who have played in more than 13 games and/or are likely to make their team's Opening Day rosters this year. Or would have been likely without getting injured, in Canning's case.

No Lukas, I agree with what you've said. But by fast tracking I didn't actually mean the big leagues, but it'd be nice to see a couple of the picks, and not even just the top couple of guys reach High A in their draft year. That does actually happen

[Lukas Berger]

Originally Posted by qcbandits

No Lukas, I agree with what you've said. But by fast tracking I didn't actually mean the big leagues, but it'd be nice to see a couple of the picks, and not even just the top couple of guys reach High A in their draft year. That does actually happen

Ah, I see what you mean.

I guess this is maybe more an ai issue than a ratings issue. Maybe something for us to look at for the future.

[SirMichaelJordan]

Originally Posted by qcbandits

No Lukas, I agree with what you've said. But by fast tracking I didn't actually mean the big leagues, but it'd be nice to see a couple of the picks, and not even just the top couple of guys reach High A in their draft year. That does actually happen

This is caused by a few things but adding service years and age limits to certain levels will help with this. You won’t see college players in rookie ball and they won’t be over powered because they will be playing against their age group as better older player would be forced up a level.

Increasing development rate also helps here.

[chazzycat]

Originally Posted by PSUColonel

It's about development...what many are failing to realize is that a bunch of the draftees you think are below average or worse, will actually develop beyond expectations.

like I said, totally understand this and have been playing this game a long time. Something seems different this time around and I still agree with OP

[chazzycat]

Originally Posted by Sweed

I would submit this is exactly why there is no real interest in televising the MLB draft like NFL or NBA. Or do they actually televise it now? I really don't know

I could probably expand that to no interest at all after the first 5 picks, maybe the first 3. As a Cubs fan I have seen them with very high picks many times over the years. I have been excited about the draft exactly 3 times... Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, and Kris Bryant. Other than that the others have just been names.

In OOTP the fun in the later rounds is to look at the player's ratings by category. Maybe good stuff but lacks control. High power potential but eye and contact would need to improve a lot to make it, but... theses guy are hard workers. Those are guys I take a chance on. I think real life is the same way. In the later rounds (and actually even in the late first round) you have to dig deeper into what tools the player offers along with his mental makeup. Some here want this to be an easy decision where in real life it is anything but.

I totally get this, but in previous years games I have always maintained my interest through the 20th round or so at minimum...


kinda wondering if the majority of these replies are coming from folks who have not played multiple seasons yet??

[Lukas Berger]

Originally Posted by chazzycat

like I said, totally understand this and have been playing this game a long time. Something seems different this time around and I still agree with OP

This is true to an extent. As I remember, the last couple years we didn't really get as much of a chance to prioritize work on fine-tuning the real draft eligible players in the roster set so much until a month or two after release, so a handful of them had inflated ratings until a few patches in.

[orange6]

Originally Posted by SirMichaelJordan

Increase development rate.

I have a fictional set up with no minors, only a reserve roster and a fall league. In order to have rookies contribute in the first season (post draft) what should the development rate be set to?

[chazzycat]

well I admit it's a tiny sample of just 2 straight seasons of bad draft classes. Maybe it's just bad luck. I had top 5 picks in both of those drafts BTW and had to settle for 2.5 star potential. That is super bad...kinda hard to rebuild if there is no talent available. but yes bad luck is possible. I will keep playing

[qcbandits]

Originally Posted by Lukas Berger

Ah, I see what you mean.

I guess this is maybe more an ai issue than a ratings issue. Maybe something for us to look at for the future.

I would agree, from my observations it does seem that AI rarely if ever aggressively promotes prospects

[SirMichaelJordan]

Originally Posted by orange6

I have a fictional set up with no minors, only a reserve roster and a fall league. In order to have rookies contribute in the first season (post draft) what should the development rate be set to?

Test. Try bumping up by .500 and see what happens.

[thklein]

Originally Posted by Lukas Berger

We rate the draft prospects to fit in seamlessly with the matrix used for the players and prospects already in the roster set and to match the talent distribution you see in the real draft.

Look at the ratings of players in the real draft on sites like MLB Pipeline and Fangraphs and then compare those to the top prospects on their lists (where you won't see anyone graded as an 80 overall potential btw, except Franco on fangraphs. In the draft, pipeline has 3 guys rated 60 overall, fangraphs has none). Then do the same in OOTP.

You'll see that most drafts will have one, maybe two guys that rate in the top 10 prospects immediately.

Having a bunch of 80 potential draft picks in each draft when we only only have something like 30 guys with 80 potential in all of the whole MLB roster set (probably only half or so of whom ever came through the draft), including current MLBers, would be overkill and completely unrealistic.

This is for the first 3 years btw, where we include and rate the real players for those drafts. Starting year four, you get the dev engine creating fictional players.

Sorry, but it's not true that this is a realistic draft pool. No five star players? Two players with a higher than 3 stars? 5 players higher than 2.5? That's not how real draft pools are. There are usually one or two players with superstar potential, several players with the potential for greatness, and a couple dozen with the potential to be big league regulars. This pool has no potential superstars, maybe 2 with greatness potential, and 5 with the potential to be big league regulars. That's silly.

We're talking about POTENTIAL. Granted not every player will reach their potential Most will not. But the POTENTIAL needs to be there. By the end of the first round, you should be looking at guys that have the POTENTIAL to be big league regular players. Not players with the upside of a utility infielder or a middle reliever. The draft is pointless like this. And it wasn't like that in OOTP20. I played a lot of seasons of that game and never saw a pool like this.

[thklein]

Meant to attach this image to the post above. Must have forgot to hit upload.

[thklein]

Same pool with the ratings on the 20-80 scale. I get that no one is rated an 80 in most real life draft pools. How about a 70 or two? Maybe a few 60s. Heck, throw me a bone and give me a 55. This is not a realistic draft pool.