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Old 08-02-2018, 06:36 PM   #1
Acuna Matata
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Development Spikes

Looking for ideas how to make sense of some crazy development spikes that ive been noticing. Im finding, Usually during the post season, that one or two of my players, mainly relief pitchers, have blossomed overnight in terms of their current and potential skill levels.
I can see no rhyme or reason as to why they have progressed so rapidly so im wondering if its something that’s a common occurence or a freakish result.
What confuses me most is that these players tend to have surged way past their projected potential as they tended to be draft picks from round 20 or later.
As im already fighting to cull the glut of players in my three rookie minor league teams then it becomes impossible to know whether i should release those who look like no hopers or just keep them around in case they take a turn for the better.
Linked to this, id also like to ask if there is an age a player will hit where it becomes a virtual certainty that he will not develop his skills any further.
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Old 08-02-2018, 07:16 PM   #2
battists
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There is a certain amount of randomness to the player development engine. So yes, some players will experience "breakthroughs" and others won't. It's not driven by draft round, certainly. Age is a factor. Young players will experience significant changes more than veterans.

If you find this jarring or you don't enjoy it, go to Game Settings | Players & Facegen, and look on the left side for a setting called "Talent Change Randomness." You can set this value to a lower number which will reduce the random talent changes, although many players tend to set it in the low 100s. I know a lot of people who play between 100 and 135. I have it at 115.
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Old 08-04-2018, 01:25 AM   #3
NoOne
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ai eval including stats as well as inaccuracy corrections over time can cause huge shifts... and of course TCR, but that's less often than the other 2.

RPs are always underrated, imo, until they get 1-3 years under belt. only the extremely well rated will be 72-80/80. many will start at 30-50 and have a good year or 2 and be ~72-80 in short order.

if it's a 'rookie' or just a few years in minor leagues and you see a huge change, 9/10 times it is just scouting inaccuracy.

with comissioner mode on, go click through the first round picks of that year's draft... compare profile to what you see in editor... you'll see what i mean quickly. that takes time for the scouts to correct themselves.

with a legend scout, big mil scout budget and normal scouting setting they are ~nearly all accurate by A and almost certainly accurate by AA and AAA. typically changes after you know it's accurate are more likely TCR at that point.
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Old 08-04-2018, 07:57 AM   #4
Reed
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If you are referring to the AI evaluation tab (ratings, current stats, last yr stats, 2 yr ago stats), pretty sure it has no bearing on players performance (per manual and other threads). It is used by the AI for line up construction. It may or may not be used in the trade logic.
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Old 08-04-2018, 11:57 AM   #5
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results can make overall spike if you include stats in AI eval. there wasn't any mention of it affecting results or causing results.

he was speaking of overall in the example of the playoff player example. that's almost certainly ai eval-related. TCR is rare compared to the other causes, but some contexts would make it more likely.

as i read his post a second time, the last paragraph exmaple is more likely TCR, if they were drafted in 20th round and later. it's virtually impossible for a well-rated player to drop that far in ootp.

op: ~26-28 they won't develope anymore. maybe 28 is the real cutoff, but don't hold your breath at 26.

imo, get rid of slowly developing players at ~24 or as long as they have value in trades. live with the few that actually do develop. even if they do, if they hit the majors at ~26+, you can only get ~5-7years of fully developed play more times than not. they may even start aging in last couple years of arbitration, lol. let someone else have that nonsense if you have other options for that role.

Last edited by NoOne; 08-04-2018 at 12:03 PM.
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