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Old 11-10-2019, 08:13 PM   #1
Metsocracy
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0 out BB; scoring from 2nd; infield hits... All connected?

I'm completely addicted to OOTP. But after playing 1500+ games (in-game), I've noticed some issues that detract from the experience and realism of the game... and I believe they might all be related.

First, pitchers disproportionately issue walks/HB with zero outs, and frequently in pairs at that. I tracked a small, 40-game sample, which showed a ludicrous 72% of walks/HB occurring with none out (incl. 14 straight at one point, though my total BBs-issued were better than average). This is inverted from reality, where pitchers are much more likely to walk guys with 2 outs than with none. Yes, it could be an outlier, but I tracked it only because I believed it was happening far too often to begin with.

Second, runners rarely score from 2nd base. Even 75-speed guys with 2 outs rarely score on seeing-eye singles up the middle. I turned my game strategy AND individual player BR sliders up so high that I'm getting guys thrown out at 3rd (trying to stretch doubles) at an unacceptable rate. Still, few score from 2nd, leaving me exasperated as I read "0 runs, 3 hits" in the game log. Others have tracked an abysmal 15-20% score rate from 2nd, which is what I found as well.

Third, infield hits occur at an absolutely ludicrous rate. Even my all 60-70 defensive infield routinely gives up several infield hits per game. IRL, they just don't happen that often. Worse, far too many of them are hit to the first baseman, where infield hits should be super-rare. Playing the infield in is untenable because of their frequency. In 3 seasons, I made ONE out playing the infield in, despite my Gold Glove, 70-D SS, and GG competitors at 3B and 2B. I understand that playing the infield in results in more balls getting through and many others just getting knocked down for hits; but, occasionally, a grounder hit right at the SS should produce an out rather than an infield hit. I no longer play the infield in under any circumstances, which itself is demonstrative of a problem because, IRL, teams do play the infield in.

Finally, crooked innings disproportionately happen not because of base hits, but instead via a string of unlikely events--a series of walks/HBs, WP, infield hits, and errors all "bunched up" into a single inning. Such innings go something like... walk/HB; walk/HB; infield hit; single; WP; infield hit; (new pitcher) WP; walk/HB, balk; double... etc... then, after 4-6 runs score... K; pop out; K. It starts out of nowhere, and then suddenly ends (note that I've had a top 3 pitching staff and bullpen every year, so it's not simply lousy pitchers). I find consecutive balks particularly egregious, but 2 or 3 pitchers combining for 5 walks/HBs, 3 WPs, and 2 infield hits in one inning just feels rigged too, especially when one was lights-out up till then, or after that particular inning. And such innings occur weekly to bi-weekly.

I can't help wondering if this is related to the game's inability to score from 2nd. Basically, because the game engine can't effectively score runners from 2nd, it can't produce the requisite number of runs via the allotment of hits in the stat pool. Consequently, it resorts to strings of unlikely events (incl. strings of walks/HBs) to get "extra base runners" so it can score the necessary runs from the allotment of stat pool hits. Under this theory, it needs those "extra base runners" in order to score those runs because it frequently "wastes" so many hits on scoreless innings. If runners on 2nd scored, say, half the time, the engine wouldn't need to bunch up rarities in order to score the requisite number of annual runs via the hits it has in the stat pool.

Statistical pareidolia, you say? Maybe. But ever time I see the numbers people here have compiled, read the posts of those venting on identical issues, or watch my pitchers have an unbelievably bad inning complete with 4 or 5 unlikely plays, I can't help but wonder if there's something to it.

If my hunch in correct (admittedly a big "if"), then this could easily be solved by reducing the strength of OFers' arms, thus allowing a realistic percentage of runners to score from 2nd. After all, OFers shouldn't all be Willie Mays, able to make diving catches at the warning track, then popping up and gunning down 75-speed runners at home by so much that the runner could've easily returned to third. With OFer arm strength reduced, runners could effectively score from 2nd, thus alleviating the engine's need to use 0 out walks/HBs and other strings of unlikely events to the score runs it "missed out on" because it "wasted" 6 singles in a pair of scoreless inning or otherwise pounded out 8 hits, to score a single run.

What do you guys think? Is this ludicrous, or not? Are other in-gamers noticing these same issues, and if so, how do you respond? Or do you think I've just experience 1500+ games of outliers? Thoughts???
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