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Old 10-24-2019, 09:28 AM   #1
Herolover12
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Individual Pitch vs Stuff/Mov/Con ratings?

So I understand that Stuff/Mov/Con each do a certain thing. My question is where do individual pitch ratings come in to play?
For instance what importance is individual pitch ratings play when evaluating a player. Examplee:

Player A
STUFF 44, MOV 28, CON 35
4 pitches each above 55, 56, 35, 57

Does his lower overall STUFF matter more than his highter individual pitch ratings or do the individual pitch ratings override the pitchers stuff?

Scale is 1-100

Last edited by Herolover12; 10-24-2019 at 02:53 PM.
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Old 10-24-2019, 10:40 AM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Herolover12 View Post
So I understand that Stuff/Mov/Con each do a certain thing. My question is where do individual pitch ratings come in to play?
For instance what importance is individual pitch ratings play when evaluating a player. Examplee:

Player A
STUFF 44, MOV 28, CON 35
4 pitches each above 55, 56, 35, 57

Does his lower overall STUFF matter more than his highter individual pitch ratings or do the individual pitch ratings override the pitchers stuff?
We need to know what your scout ratings scale is set to in order to help with this? Are you using the 1-100 scale?
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Old 10-24-2019, 11:31 AM   #3
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This guy just did a pretty in depth look at this

https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...d.php?t=307071
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Old 10-24-2019, 01:47 PM   #4
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Here's the short summary from what I know:

- Pitch types are already baked into the displayed Stuff/Movement/Control ratings
- The most unique type of pitch is the Knuckleball, which provides benefit beyond its effect on Stuff -- it lowers opponents BABIP and therefore batting averages (but only if the Knuckler doesn't have a Fastball for some reason)
- Arm slot (Submarine/Sidearm/Normal/Over-the-Top) affects platoon splits, Submariners are better against same-handed batters, Over-the-Toppers are more neutral -- this is already baked into the displayed ratings as well
- Velocity affects Stuff and is important if the pitcher has a Fastball
- Converting a starter to a reliever will generally provide a boost to their Stuff rating, the pitchers who benefit most from this are ones with one or two very strong individual pitches

Other musings and findings can be found in the above linked thread.
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Old 10-24-2019, 02:53 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BIG17EASY View Post
We need to know what your scout ratings scale is set to in order to help with this? Are you using the 1-100 scale?

Yep, really bad mistake on my part. Scale is 1-100
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Old 10-24-2019, 02:57 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CBeisbol View Post
This guy just did a pretty in depth look at this

https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...d.php?t=307071

I read that and maybe I am not understanding correctly, but the way I read and understand it that post is saying that that there are some pitch types that are more effective than other pitch types.at certain things.


It does not answer the question I am asking of ratings? Put it this way. If I have two pitchers both have the same STUFF/MOV/CON and the same pitch types, but one has higher individual pitch ratings will there be a difference?
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Old 10-24-2019, 02:58 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CBeisbol View Post
This guy just did a pretty in depth look at this

https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...d.php?t=307071

I read that and maybe I am not understanding correctly, but the way I read and understand it that post is saying that that there are some pitch types that are more effective than other pitch types.at certain things.


It does not answer the question I am asking of ratings.

Put it this way:


If I have two pitchers both have the same STUFF/MOV/CON and the same pitch types, but one has higher individual pitch ratings will there be a difference?
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Old 10-24-2019, 03:05 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Herolover12 View Post
I read that and maybe I am not understanding correctly, but the way I read and understand it that post is saying that that there are some pitch types that are more effective than other pitch types.at certain things.


It does not answer the question I am asking of ratings.

Put it this way:


If I have two pitchers both have the same STUFF/MOV/CON and the same pitch types, but one has higher individual pitch ratings will there be a difference?
I don't know

But you can be the hero

Pick a pitcher.

Clone him. Edit his ratings to be like you want them.

Use the simulation mode to sim a few thousand seasons.

Compare their results

Report back to us.
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Old 10-24-2019, 03:07 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Herolover12 View Post
I read that and maybe I am not understanding correctly, but the way I read and understand it that post is saying that that there are some pitch types that are more effective than other pitch types.at certain things.


It does not answer the question I am asking of ratings? Put it this way. If I have two pitchers both have the same STUFF/MOV/CON and the same pitch types, but one has higher individual pitch ratings will there be a difference?
If you want the three sentence summary it's this:

Look at the STU/MOV/CON ratings, they will generally tell you how your pitcher will perform. Individual pitch types are inputs into the STU/MOV/CON ratings, and shouldn't necessarily be looked at on their own. Except if the pitcher has a Knuckleball, which is the best pitch in the game and will make a pitcher better than his STU/MOV/CON indicates.
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Old 10-24-2019, 04:18 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Herolover12 View Post
If I have two pitchers both have the same STUFF/MOV/CON and the same pitch types, but one has higher individual pitch ratings will there be a difference?
Pitch ratings influence STUFF/MOV/CON, so I would think it would be pretty near impossible to have two pitchers with the same STUFF/MOV/CON and the same pitch types but one with significantly higher individual pitch ratings
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Old 10-24-2019, 04:30 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Herolover12 View Post

Put it this way:


If I have two pitchers both have the same STUFF/MOV/CON and the same pitch types, but one has higher individual pitch ratings will there be a difference?
There will be no difference and additionally the pitcher with higher individual pitch ratings (assuming the exact same pitches and all pitch ratings are higher or equal) will always have better STU, which is derived totally from the number and quality of pitches, though some pitches matter more than others. MOV and CON are primarily through those ratings, which a pitcher has directly, but pitch type also affects them.

But if one pitcher is higher in STU, MOV and CON, with the same number of pitches (pitch type doesn't even matter for this; that's already factored into STU/MOV/CON) the only way he isn't always going to be better might be through stamina or conceivably ratings generally not as important like how well the pitcher holds runners on base, but if a pitcher has higher STU, MOV, and CON and is pitched at the same level of rest/fatigue relative to endurance with equally good defenses and pitching coaches, then he will get more K's thus allowing a lower batting average (STU),. allow fewer home runs (MOV) and allow fewer walks (CON) and thus pitch more effectively, outside of the fact that of course there's a random factor so some will pitch better or worse than they "should."
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Old 10-24-2019, 04:39 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Izz View Post
Pitch ratings influence STUFF/MOV/CON, so I would think it would be pretty near impossible to have two pitchers with the same STUFF/MOV/CON and the same pitch types but one with significantly higher individual pitch ratings
You could have some odd cases. A Changeup is "better" than a Cutter, so if you had two pitchers, and their only difference was this:

Pitcher A: 80 Changeup / 40 Cutter
Pitcher B: 40 Changeup / 80 Cutter

Pitcher A would have higher Stuff.

Anyway, that kind of thing may make people get lost in the details unless they have a firm grasp of the system. So I just say look at STU/MOV/CON to evaluate pitchers, but also look to see if he has a Knuckleball because that will make him better than advertised.

Last edited by Argonaut; 10-24-2019 at 04:41 PM.
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Old 10-24-2019, 04:55 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Argonaut View Post
Anyway, that kind of thing may make people get lost in the details unless they have a firm grasp of the system. So I just say look at STU/MOV/CON to evaluate pitchers, but also look to see if he has a Knuckleball because that will make him better than advertised.
Actually look and see if he has a knuckleball but no fastball, because if he has a fastball at all that knuckleball "bonus" to lowering BABIP won't factor in. On the other hand, that knuckleball doesn't have to be any good to get the BABIP bonus as long as there's no fastball.

And it's hard to know just how much to count the BABIP bonus for (unless you cheat by going into commissioner mode and checking projected ERA in edit mode) and pitchers with a knuckleball and no fastball at all are rare enough you don't hurt much by not worrying about it.

The way knuckleballs/fastballs work that way I take as a flaw in design. I'd imagine studies show that players with a knuckleball as their main pitch do a lot better at BABIP, but then it should be more that there's no bonus for a knuckleball if it's not one of the two best pitches, and the bonus rises to its max the better the knuckleball is relative to other pitches. As it is a lousy knuckleball will give the same edge as a great one, and a great one gives nothing if the pitcher has a fastball at all.
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Old 10-24-2019, 05:19 PM   #14
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Actually look and see if he has a knuckleball but no fastball, because if he has a fastball at all that knuckleball "bonus" to lowering BABIP won't factor in. On the other hand, that knuckleball doesn't have to be any good to get the BABIP bonus as long as there's no fastball.

And it's hard to know just how much to count the BABIP bonus for (unless you cheat by going into commissioner mode and checking projected ERA in edit mode) and pitchers with a knuckleball and no fastball at all are rare enough you don't hurt much by not worrying about it.

The way knuckleballs/fastballs work that way I take as a flaw in design. I'd imagine studies show that players with a knuckleball as their main pitch do a lot better at BABIP, but then it should be more that there's no bonus for a knuckleball if it's not one of the two best pitches, and the bonus rises to its max the better the knuckleball is relative to other pitches. As it is a lousy knuckleball will give the same edge as a great one, and a great one gives nothing if the pitcher has a fastball at all.
Yes I noticed that in my testing as well about the Fastball/Knuckleball combinaton. I didn't know that it was a flat BABIP bonus for a Knuckleball (sans-Fastball) though. You're right that it should instead depend on how good the Knuckleball is.
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Old 10-24-2019, 08:49 PM   #15
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The individual pitch ratings are more useful for how you would deploy the pitcher. The pitcher you provided as an example will be a decent to middling starting pitcher I would think, since he has 3 decent pitches. You need more than 2 quality pitches to prevent large penalties the 2nd and 3rd time through the lineup. However, since none of those pitches are "plus" he isn't going to get a major boost as a short-inning relief pitcher. So, the individual pitch ratings help tell you to keep this guy in a "longer" role (starter or long reliever).
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Old 10-25-2019, 02:06 PM   #16
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The game uses overall stuff per PA. "They've" said as much in the forums, if not mistaken. (a proxy of some sort at the least)

pitch types do add some sort of flavor to the results. We can see that in the more overt examples with a smaller sample, and our eyes. most are not this way.

e.g. a good knuckleball and suitable ratings otherwise will provide a well below average babip against, all other factors the same.

some pitches may increase hr/9, some may increase bb/9, etc. or lower any of that stuff.

Stuff itself is a component of a few different things. individual stuff ratings, velo, and whatever else the manual and the in-gam editor mention. you can have high individual raw pitch stuff in editor, but have mediocry stuff in profile (profile shows the composite of each pitch as well as overall stuff as is used - if 100% accurate ratings on)

if you turn 100% accuracy on, you can see the resulting stuff per pitch and overall in a precise way and could calculate the weights of each factor.

while you are there, pay attention to the splits of each pitch. that will also help you determine which pitchers will perform better at similar ratings compared to others with similar ratings.

it's possible your leagues LTM/LTs influence how much flavor somethign adds, too. this is why it's so difficult to know anything for certain outside of very specific environment and a large enough sample. whether it translates is another question.

e.g. if a pitch happens to give up more hr/9, but your league only has 500-700hr a year (30tx162g), then that pitch's weakness is minimized and may be a more dominant pitch in that league than in a league with 7000 home runs in same # of games.

Last edited by NoOne; 10-25-2019 at 02:08 PM.
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Old 10-31-2019, 03:18 AM   #17
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Actually I'm wondering about this.

I have this pitcher, Alvare Casteles:




And his stuff is a straight up 255.

But his K/9 is only "above average", especially by modern standards. I mean 10 K/9 isn't even top 10 in starters this past season.

At first, I thought maybe my league just needs more K's (and maybe it does, though hitters are already striking out a LOT, even by modern standards).

Castelles has six pitches. His 70 Forkball and 80 Circle Change aren't showing.

But then the Cardinals have this guy, Marc Tatum:



He also has a straight up 255 stuff.

And he's posting Gerrit Cole/Max Scherzer type numbers in K/9.

Am I just seeing the "flavor" that No One was talking about?

Neither pitcher has a knuckleball, but Casteles has far lower BABIP allowed consistently, while Tatum has a splitter. Is that splitter helping Tatum keep a higher K/9 while Casteles' profile is more "extreme deceptive" and he's better at inducing bad contact when he doesn't miss bats completely?
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Old 10-31-2019, 03:30 AM   #18
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Quote:
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Neither pitcher has a knuckleball, but Casteles has far lower BABIP allowed consistently, while Tatum has a splitter. Is that splitter helping Tatum keep a higher K/9 while Casteles' profile is more "extreme deceptive" and he's better at inducing bad contact when he doesn't miss bats completely?
You can find out through the player editor in commissioner mode, if the lower BABIP is intrinsic to the pitcher (if you make a pitcher in the editor with no fastball but whatever other pitches, look at the difference between projected ERA and projected FIP, and then add a knuckleball, even an awful one, as long as there is no fastball, the projected BABIP will go way down as will the projected ERA relative to FIP. Same for anything else intrinsic).

Even without a knuckleball, the projected ERA isn't exactly the same as the projected FIP (though they're always close, sans knuckleball), so other factors may come into play to some degree.

But without a knuckleball the most likely explanation for a pitcher consistently having ERAs that beat his FIP is a good defense behind him. Other factors might include if the pitcher himself is a good defensive player at the position, or holds runners on well, though those effects will be minor.
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Old 10-31-2019, 03:52 AM   #19
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Quote:
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You can find out through the player editor in commissioner mode, if the lower BABIP is intrinsic to the pitcher (if you make a pitcher in the editor with no fastball but whatever other pitches, look at the difference between projected ERA and projected FIP, and then add a knuckleball, even an awful one, as long as there is no fastball, the projected BABIP will go way down as will the projected ERA relative to FIP. Same for anything else intrinsic).

Even without a knuckleball, the projected ERA isn't exactly the same as the projected FIP (though they're always close, sans knuckleball), so other factors may come into play to some degree.

But without a knuckleball the most likely explanation for a pitcher consistently having ERAs that beat his FIP is a good defense behind him. Other factors might include if the pitcher himself is a good defensive player at the position, or holds runners on well, though those effects will be minor.

Well the editor says Casteles should, basically, be Bob Gibson.

ERA and FIP are close for both, though Tatum's is almost identical (2.06 ERA, 2.05 FIP). Casteles' FIP is .04 lower than his ERA in the editor (1.55 ERA, 1.51 FIP).

But would better defense behind Casteles also lower his K/9? I would think a guy with 255 stuff is going to get K's more than anything else, even before any impact of BABIP.
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Old 10-31-2019, 04:44 AM   #20
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Well the editor says Casteles should, basically, be Bob Gibson.

ERA and FIP are close for both, though Tatum's is almost identical (2.06 ERA, 2.05 FIP). Casteles' FIP is .04 lower than his ERA in the editor (1.55 ERA, 1.51 FIP).

But would better defense behind Casteles also lower his K/9? I would think a guy with 255 stuff is going to get K's more than anything else, even before any impact of BABIP.
To some degree (though the effect shouldn't be huge) great defense will lower a pitchers K/9. Any outs you get because a fielder made the play are chances you don't get to strike the batter out, so would lead to a better ERA but a worse K/9.

A really, really bad defense could inflate K/9's a lot actually, by keeping the inning going until the pirtcher struck guys out. But no one, including the AI, would play a defense that awful.
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