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Old 11-02-2019, 03:13 PM   #21
ThrownOutAtHome
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Argonaut your post has helped me a lot but....

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Originally Posted by Argonaut View Post
EDIT: Disregard the following post's conclusions about FIP being arbitrary in some cases. There's a follow-up post below by me that offers explanation. The relevant data in this post pertains to a catcher's affect on strikeouts and walks.

NEW TESTING: FIP & CATCHERS

In doing some unrelated testing on something else, I seem to have come to the conclusion that FIP may have some element of arbitrariness, calling into question how I view FIP in OOTP.

It started by my opening the Pandora's Box that is Catcher Defense. I was looking at Ivan Rodriguez on the 1997 Texas Rangers, and simulated a bunch of games against the Milwaukee Brewers with and without his elite defense.

It was actually kind of eerie, as Texas had a mirror image record:

Normal Pudge: 5093-4907
Crippled Pudge: 4907-5093

There is some more detail in the attached results. A great catcher increases K/9 and decreases BB/9, and also definitely contributes positively to ERA and FIP.

But wait, I thought FIP was fielding independent? Well, normally it's pretty close as shown in my Braves testing. But catchers are a different story, and if their pitch framing increases K's and reduces BB's, that should be a net benefit to FIP because BABIP isn't involved. It's cool that this is in OOTP, and it reinforces my attraction to defensive catchers.

And then we get to the puzzling part... the Rangers with the normal Pudge gave up more home runs? I tested this over and over to make sure what I saw was real. It's true, having a better Catcher Defense actually increases home runs against. This doesn't make any logical sense -- if there's more strikeouts and fewer walks, then innings should be shorter and there should be fewer opportunities for home runs.

The only reasoning I can think of for the additional home runs is that there is some arbitrary invisible hand at play to keep FIP within a range. More strikeouts + fewer walks = more home runs. Having a great catcher is still a net benefit, but it looks like there's an illogical drawback.

In all of my previous testing I've come away more appreciative of OOTP, but this is the first time I've been disappointed. (EDIT: Disappointment not needed!)
Argonaut your post has helped me a lot but....I disagree about your statement of: Having a great catcher is still a net benefit, but it looks like there's an illogical drawback. I BELIEVE THAT IT IS MUCH WORSE THEN I SUSPECTED AND A CATCHER WITH BETTER CATCHING ABILITY is even WORSE then a catcher with a lower ability rating.

Thanks to your post I may understand why.
I am amazed at how many times I witness say Catcher X with a 100 plus ability and say a 90 plus arm HAVE a much higher CERA over Catcher Z with a 20 ability and 40 arm.
TOP That off with if the lower ability Catcher is a better hitter and the WAR stat is a huge difference. Heck, I have repeatedly seen comparable hitting catchers end result being the catcher with the lower ability/arm have a much better WAR.

I actually have recently been studying the same thing and Pudge was just one of many reasons I studied this.

I may now understand what is going on thanks to your post. The only thing we disagree on is that I feel based off of 100's of PT observations and dozens of single player seasons (looking at every team catcher stats) that a catcher with a better ability is even WORSE then the one with lower ability.
This will change how I play both single and PT from now on. I'll mainly just go for a pure hitter with a total disregard for catcher ability or even choose the lower ability on purpose. I do notice a decent difference in throwing out runners so I'll still try to get a guy with a good arm.

Have a great day Argonaut and love the screen name. I actually have a dog named Argos.
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Old 11-02-2019, 03:30 PM   #22
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Cera

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Originally Posted by Argonaut View Post
A short while ago I posted a thread on pitch types, and how they had more of an effect on OOTP than I thought. Here's the thread. On page two I actually ranked the different pitches.

Well I'm back at it again with more testing. This time I was wondering if FIP was actually fielding independent, or if it is a flawed statistic.

What got me thinking is that Nolan Ryan in my dynasty is striking out guys a lot less than he should be, and I wagered it was because my defense was too good. If my outfielder makes a great play for the third out, then Ryan doesn't get to strikeout the next batter to pad his stats, right? Makes sense.

Remember that the components of FIP are K's, BB's, and HR's. So if Nolan Ryan is striking out guys less, then does that mean his FIP, and therefore his WAR, is worse off? But then I also thought that if defense is good, then innings don't go on as long and the pitcher theoretically doesn't give up as many walks or homers either. So how does it all wash out in the end? I decided to do some testing.

For this test I used the 1995 Atlanta Braves, a model choice for pitching. I was watching Smoltz (strikeout artist), Glavine (finesse pitcher), and Maddux (all-time great). I also looked at Wohlers (lights-out closer with average control) for a reliever perspective.

I ran three simulations of 10,000 games against the San Diego Padres -- one with the vanilla Braves, one with a super defense, and one with a very bad defense. All numbers were "within reason" so it wasn't like maxed and minimum ratings across the board. I didn't touch catcher ratings, because they are really the biggest wildcard in OOTP and I didn't want to muck around with that variable.

Sidenote: Tony Gwynn batted .428 against the bad defense!

What I found was interesting, and I've attached the results in a photo. Conclusions:
  • FIP really holds up for pitchers no matter what kind of defense is behind you, at least in OOTP. You'll see all the Braves pitchers had FIP numbers across the board that were very close.
  • As expected, strikeouts were higher with a bad defense. But this was almost directly offset with a tiny bit higher HR/9 rate, and a noticeably higher BB/9 rate.
  • If anything when it comes to a bad defense, a super elite pitcher like Maddux gets more of a chance to prove his dominance, while a finesse pitcher like Glavine will get killed by BABIP over and over because he doesn't strike guys out.
  • In OOTP I would say that in the long run, FIP is definitely a measure of how good your pitcher is, so long as he is not a knuckleballer (see my other thread).
Now, I'm sure you're wondering the answer to the real question: After 30,000 simulations of the Braves against the Padres, did Greg Maddux ever strike out Tony Gwynn? Well, I didn't save the box scores, so I guess we'll never know.
Look at Ivan arm/ability then his CERA
look at King arm/ability then his CERA
Those images are from a guy playing now in OOTP and is a small sample compared to the 100s I studied from PT and thousands I studied in single player.

This is very common. I have been studying examples like this for quite some time. Your post and others gave me some insight as to why this is.
Overall OOTP does great job with the WAR stat and that is the stat for me that helps a lot as to which catcher I should use. Only problem with the WAR is I like to give both Catchers a fair amount of playing time in a couple of seasons which is fine for PT because they do not age but not so great for single player.
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Old 11-02-2019, 03:33 PM   #23
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Thank you for directing me to this link. I'm learning a lot and have some new ideas thanks to you and others posts here.
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Old 11-02-2019, 03:38 PM   #24
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Your logic

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Originally Posted by SkoCubs View Post
One of the reasons I think steal 3rd is much more successful in OOTP is because they could possibly base it off MLB stealing third successful rates. For example, IRL stealing third is usually only done when the baserunner sees something where the pitcher/catcher absolutely aren't paying attention. So there's a high success rate, same with double steal they'll only do it if they know they'll snag both bases.

Maybe more "batter must swing" counts correlates with more home runs? Something like how players like Javy Baez who doesn't walk usually has a high amount of hits?

Not sure if my logic makes sense, just spitballing.
Your logic actually makes complete sense. Just spitballing hahaha I wish the game had a spitball and a palmball pitcher stats.
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Old 11-02-2019, 03:40 PM   #25
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True but

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It is empiircally logical that a catcher who independently reduces a pitcher's BB rate will almost certainly increase his HR/9 rate.
Very true but an overall catcher with a much higher catcher ability/arm stat should not consistently have a lower CERA. Just no way does that make any sense.
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Old 11-02-2019, 03:42 PM   #26
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Very true. I agree RonCo
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Old 11-02-2019, 03:45 PM   #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ThrownOutAtHome View Post
Very true but an overall catcher with a much higher catcher ability/arm stat should not consistently have a lower CERA. Just no way does that make any sense.
The 10,000 games that Argonaut simmed show catchers with a higher catcher rating decrease ERA.

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Old 11-02-2019, 04:49 PM   #28
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A little data can be a dangerous thing. I don't think you're drawing the right conclusions from my posts, ThrownOutAtHome. The one thing I do agree with you is that I don't know what's going on in Perfect Team with respect to catchers, and it's near impossible to test.

But a catcher with great ratings will mean the difference between many wins and losses according to the Simulation Module in OOTP. I hope everyone also disregards what I said about catchers and home runs allowed because I believe it's irrelevant data.
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Old 11-02-2019, 05:40 PM   #29
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A little data can be a dangerous thing

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Originally Posted by Argonaut View Post
A little data can be a dangerous thing. I don't think you're drawing the right conclusions from my posts, ThrownOutAtHome. The one thing I do agree with you is that I don't know what's going on in Perfect Team with respect to catchers, and it's near impossible to test.

But a catcher with great ratings will mean the difference between many wins and losses according to the Simulation Module in OOTP. I hope everyone also disregards what I said about catchers and home runs allowed because I believe it's irrelevant data.
A little data can be a dangerous thing. I understand that you do not believe I have a large enough sample to come to my conclusion about CERA. It does seem like a ridiculous amount of times I see Catchers with lower ability have a better CERA.
Do you play PT at all?
I have felt all along that catchers ability is meaningless in PT and time after time it proves to be true. When it comes to Catchers I am just going by intuition and hitting abilities....and that has been lining up with more wins and a better WAR.

Thank you for your posts. I'm going to experiment by putting guys in at Catcher that are not Catchers at all and compare their CERA.
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Old 11-02-2019, 06:00 PM   #30
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Never mind my question about if you ever played PT.

I just noticed the cool signature with championships,
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Old 11-02-2019, 07:01 PM   #31
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Very true but an overall catcher with a much higher catcher ability/arm stat should not consistently have a lower CERA. Just no way does that make any sense.
Your sample size is massively too small. And CERA is a dangerous stat.
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Old 11-02-2019, 07:28 PM   #32
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OK Thank You

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Your sample size is massively too small. And CERA is a dangerous stat.
OK. Thank you for your advice. CERA is a stat that I was very unsure of and that is why I came to this post.

A double a guy should always listen to a hall of famer.
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Old 11-02-2019, 09:39 PM   #33
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Sorry if I came off a bit abrupt. Any poster should always be able to disagree with any other! It's been a stressful week here. That's never a good excuse, but it's all I got. Learning: Never respond to things like this from a hospital.

Here are a couple threads on catcher defense from GMs in the BBA online league with several typse of studies in them. The first is mine, but the others take different approaches.

http://montybrewster.net/forums/view...p?f=23&t=25186

http://montybrewster.net/forums/view...p?f=23&t=26010

There's also a good study in one of our league's pre-season media guides: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B_l...ew?usp=sharing
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Old 11-02-2019, 11:00 PM   #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ThrownOutAtHome View Post
Never mind my question about if you ever played PT.

I just noticed the cool signature with championships,
I do agree with you that Perfect Team is a tough thing to figure out, and some of the data from users seems to show Catcher Defense may not matter as much as in regular OOTP. But there's no real way to test it thoroughly.

One thing I would also add is that WAR doesn't tell the whole story for catchers. As far as I can tell the whole pitch framing thing (more K's, fewer BB's) doesn't show up in a catcher's WAR. And that's like the entire value of a defensive catcher! So pitchers are "stealing" that WAR from catchers.

I think it was Fangraphs that recently made adjustments to catcher WAR to take into account pitch framing. Some catchers like Yadi got a huge boost and others got a WAR subtraction. I don't think this is in OOTP yet, maybe next year.
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Old 11-03-2019, 12:50 PM   #35
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Interesting stuff, thanks for doing this.

My questions are bit different. My understanding of how the game engine works is that there are overall rates for batting average, types of hits, walks, strikeouts and so forth. If that is true, shouldn't you see off-setting moves in the San Diego players in your 30,000 sims?

Did you look there? It might confirm, explain or deny conclusions.

Just curious.
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Old 11-03-2019, 11:55 PM   #36
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I don't know, and I don't think anyone knows outside of the devs, in which order the dice are rolled so to speak. Maybe they just roll them all at once somehow?
I'd say it's likely they're essentially "rolled all at once." Ever see one of the old dice baseball table games? Those didn't check walks, then K's, then HR's or anything...they had to be rolled all at once.

OOTP (and computer sims going back to Earl Weaver Baseball) I'm sure are more sophisticated as to how, as the old dice games had to have separate cards for batters and pitchers to roll on, so extremes couldn't be in the game (a pitcher who only walked 1.5/9 innings would walk more because it's either on the batter's card or the pitchers, where computers could combine and get their own probabilities).

But it's probably something like the formula determine the percentage chance of each outcome, including very rare outcomes like triple plays, and then the "dice" decide which, all on one scale.
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Old 11-04-2019, 01:12 AM   #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leo_The_Lip View Post
Interesting stuff, thanks for doing this.

My questions are bit different. My understanding of how the game engine works is that there are overall rates for batting average, types of hits, walks, strikeouts and so forth. If that is true, shouldn't you see off-setting moves in the San Diego players in your 30,000 sims?

Did you look there? It might confirm, explain or deny conclusions.

Just curious.
Yeah the Padres team itself was a control variable, I didn't change anything about them. But they did get corresponding stat changes in the simulations based on my changes to the Braves defense.

As I mentioned, Tony Gwynn batted well over .400 against the awful defense.
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Old 11-05-2019, 05:25 AM   #38
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Earl Weaver

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Originally Posted by Anyone View Post
I'd say it's likely they're essentially "rolled all at once." Ever see one of the old dice baseball table games? Those didn't check walks, then K's, then HR's or anything...they had to be rolled all at once.

OOTP (and computer sims going back to Earl Weaver Baseball) I'm sure are more sophisticated as to how, as the old dice games had to have separate cards for batters and pitchers to roll on, so extremes couldn't be in the game (a pitcher who only walked 1.5/9 innings would walk more because it's either on the batter's card or the pitchers, where computers could combine and get their own probabilities).

But it's probably something like the formula determine the percentage chance of each outcome, including very rare outcomes like triple plays, and then the "dice" decide which, all on one scale.
Awesome that you mentioned the old Earl Weaver Baseball game....we are showing our age. Did you ever play any of the Microleague Baseball games?
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Old 11-05-2019, 05:27 AM   #39
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Do you think PT stats such as the Catchers are very different from single player mode? To me it seems that the game is running off of the same statistical engine. I have learned a lot from you so far from reading many of your posts and thank you for all that.

Wish you the best.
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Old 11-05-2019, 05:29 AM   #40
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It's ok to come off abrupt.....

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Originally Posted by RonCo View Post
Sorry if I came off a bit abrupt. Any poster should always be able to disagree with any other! It's been a stressful week here. That's never a good excuse, but it's all I got. Learning: Never respond to things like this from a hospital.

Here are a couple threads on catcher defense from GMs in the BBA online league with several typse of studies in them. The first is mine, but the others take different approaches.

http://montybrewster.net/forums/view...p?f=23&t=25186

http://montybrewster.net/forums/view...p?f=23&t=26010

There's also a good study in one of our league's pre-season media guides: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B_l...ew?usp=sharing
This is not a social justice warrior game so it's ok to come off abrupt.
We do not need "safe spaces" in OOTP game or forums.

Your'e a good guy and are one of a few that has helped me with your posts.
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