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Old 10-05-2019, 06:00 PM   #1
dward1
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Have you ever seen a runner thrown out trying to stretch a single into a double?

or trying to score on a wild pitch or passed ball? they get thrown out all the time trying to score from 2nd with 2 outs but I've never seen these two scenarios
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Old 10-05-2019, 06:02 PM   #2
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or trying to score on a wild pitch or passed ball? they get thrown out all the time trying to score from 2nd with 2 outs but I've never seen these two scenarios
I do not not recall having seen that. I was thinking about it the other day
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Old 10-05-2019, 07:31 PM   #3
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Very, very seldom. Maybe twice in the last 100 games I have played out. I have seen more players thrown out trying for a triple.
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Old 10-05-2019, 09:08 PM   #4
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I agree with Reed. Very rare. Don't even remember the last time I saw it happen.
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Old 10-05-2019, 09:10 PM   #5
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Another one is an inside the park homerun. ALWAYS safe. Never seen one thrown out.
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Old 10-06-2019, 01:11 PM   #6
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I've seen runners trying to stretch a single into a double get thrown out.

There are a lot of things I've never seen. One that bothers me the most is the cut off man throwing out a runner at a base other than home.
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Old 10-07-2019, 12:58 PM   #7
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I have guys on my team getting thrown out trying to stretch singles into doubles at least like 5-10 times a season.
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Old 10-07-2019, 02:28 PM   #8
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I have guys on my team getting thrown out trying to stretch singles into doubles at least like 5-10 times a season.
I agree. It does not happen often, but I do see it a few times a season. definitely does not happen as much as you see it happening in real life.
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Old 10-07-2019, 02:29 PM   #9
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Quote:
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Another one is an inside the park homerun. ALWAYS safe. Never seen one thrown out.
I do not believe I have ever seen someone thrown out when trying for an inside the park HR.
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Old 10-07-2019, 03:14 PM   #10
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I agree. It does not happen often, but I do see it a few times a season. definitely does not happen as much as you see it happening in real life.
Is that based on feel or research?

I have seen it in OOTP and it is rare. My first thought, when I first read this thread, was "how often do I see that when I watch a real game?" And I have to say I can't remember the last time I saw it, and I watch quite a few games. So my real life observation is that it is a rare play IRL and my guess is OOTP probably has it right or close to right.

Not saying you're wrong and my observation is definitely based on feel. If you do have research showing real life numbers it would be interesting to see.
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Old 10-07-2019, 04:04 PM   #11
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Quote:
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Is that based on feel or research?

I have seen it in OOTP and it is rare. My first thought, when I first read this thread, was "how often do I see that when I watch a real game?" And I have to say I can't remember the last time I saw it, and I watch quite a few games. So my real life observation is that it is a rare play IRL and my guess is OOTP probably has it right or close to right.

Not saying you're wrong and my observation is definitely based on feel. If you do have research showing real life numbers it would be interesting to see.
Based on feel, but I watch every Pirate game during the season, and off the top of my head I can think of 8 games this year where a Pirate was thrown out at second trying to stretch into a double, and 1 of those games they were thrown out twice. I can also think of 4 games off the top of my head where the Pirates threw out a runner trying to stretch it into a double. I do not remember those as much as the Pirates getting thrown out, however I do remember Jose Osuna thrown 3 guys out in the same game. That was not this year, may have been last year or the year before.
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Old 10-07-2019, 05:32 PM   #12
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it's a bit of a guess too, as far as reasoning...

in ootp, it's simply a % of the outs at 2nd will be written in the pbp as that type of outcome.

i don't think the engine resolves beyond proportion of occurence. i.e. it' snot looking at a player and rolling the dice at "1B" whether that player decides to go for 2nd base or not... there's no 'role-playing' element liek that i don't think.

the engine is probably 300-500KB.. seriously. 99.99% of the game by bytes is a pretty facade. *not criticism, it's inevitable for any game like this. even adding all the things necesary to make that decisions per player wouldn't be much added (not the hard part for that type of addition - startification of players in an appropriate and real-world accurate way would be the real effort - like using personality along with baserunning and such -- selfish, stupid player smore likely to try somethig risky).

asthetic stuff for us to read, but still in proportion.

Last edited by NoOne; 10-07-2019 at 05:36 PM.
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Old 10-07-2019, 06:50 PM   #13
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Using a script to scan OOTP game logs (and whatever settings we have here), in about 24 games of our 32-team online league we've had the following runners thrown out trying to advance to:

2B: 9
3B: 55
Home: 148
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Old 10-07-2019, 07:16 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RonCo View Post
Using a script to scan OOTP game logs (and whatever settings we have here), in about 24 games of our 32-team online league we've had the following runners thrown out trying to advance to:

2B: 9
3B: 55
Home: 148
For clarification. Was this a base runner being thrown out at home or the batter thrown out at home trying for inside the park HR?
Thanks.
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Old 10-07-2019, 07:20 PM   #15
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The script searches for the following phrases:

OUT at second base trying to stretch hit
Runner from 2nd tries for 3rd
Runner from 2nd tags up
Runner from 3rd tries for Home
Runner from 3rd tags up

So that's all I can say right now. I'd have to page through the whole set by hand to see which, if any, were attempts at inside the park homers.
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Old 10-07-2019, 07:23 PM   #16
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I can say that none were credited with a triple, so there's that.

I should note that inside the park homers are pretty rare, and this is only essentially a month of games. So I wouldn't say anything about inside the park homers here. I would say that it shows runner do clearly attempt to stretch singles into doubles on occasion. Someone else would have to say if this is enough or too many or whatever.
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Old 10-07-2019, 07:26 PM   #17
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Of the plays in which runners were thrown out at home, the batters were credited with:

15: Fly outs (tag ups)
94: Singles
39: Doubles
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Old 10-07-2019, 08:01 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RonCo View Post
Using a script to scan OOTP game logs (and whatever settings we have here), in about 24 games of our 32-team online league we've had the following runners thrown out trying to advance to:

2B: 9
3B: 55
Home: 148
Now someone just needs to get the IRL numbers for these to see if they are in the ballpark.
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Old 10-07-2019, 08:29 PM   #19
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FWIW, we've had three Inside the Park homers in the four weeks worth of games in that sample size above.
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Old 10-08-2019, 10:45 AM   #20
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I've seen a good amount of runners thrown out at second, enough that I can recognize when it's going to happen based on how the PBP is unfolding.
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