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Old 07-30-2019, 08:47 PM   #1
fredbeene
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apparently Stuff is very important (quisenberry)

I have been playing dan quisenberry 1982 all star card.
Amazed that his overall rating is only a 64
Ratings are:
64 overall
34 stuff
78 movement
97 control (highest i have seen)

groundball submarine 86-88 mph
Would you have guessed his overall rating is 64?
Anyone else play him? Cheap pick up to try him out.
I guess I still don't grasp how STUFF, MOV Control work together.


in limited bronze league action
50.1 IP
2.9 BB/9 (huh?)
3.9 K/9
12.2 H/9
.4 HR/9
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Old 07-30-2019, 08:58 PM   #2
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I don't know the particulars of your league and how that might affect your results but as a basic shorthand, I see "stuff" as the ability to get a batter to swing and miss. "Movement" as the ability to keep hitters from "squaring up" on the ball. And "Control" is obviously the ability to "paint corners" and not give up walks.

It does appear to me that your Quisenberry has given up a lot of walks but it is a small sample size and I'm ignorant of your league settings, etc.
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Old 07-30-2019, 09:12 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dyzalot View Post
I don't know the particulars of your league and how that might affect your results but as a basic shorthand, I see "stuff" as the ability to get a batter to swing and miss. "Movement" as the ability to keep hitters from "squaring up" on the ball. And "Control" is obviously the ability to "paint corners" and not give up walks.

It does appear to me that your Quisenberry has given up a lot of walks but it is a small sample size and I'm ignorant of your league settings, etc.
Thanks.....i'll copy this to the PT thread.....
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Old 07-30-2019, 09:31 PM   #4
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In general, in OOTP:

Stuff correlates with strikeouts
Movement correlates with homeruns
Control correlates with walks
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Old 07-31-2019, 01:28 AM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by battists View Post
In general, in OOTP:

Stuff correlates with strikeouts
Movement correlates with homeruns
Control correlates with walks
Thanks!

FYI quisenberry control BB/9 is impacted by over 50 percent of walks are intentional

not sure why the ratings very so much from 19 to 20.
there are 3 quisenberrys for different years in 20 AH
The card i describe above is 1982 in version 19
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Old 08-02-2019, 03:37 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by battists View Post
In general, in OOTP:

Stuff correlates with strikeouts
Movement correlates with homeruns
Control correlates with walks
Just to elaborate on this, studies have shown that pitchers don't have much impact on BABIP (batting average on balls in play). Note that is "not much" and not "zero" and some people do forget that. But fielding clearly has a significantly bigger effect than pitching on BABIP.

So the three most important ways pitchers have an impact are getting outs without balls in play (strikeouts), avoiding giving up baserunners without the ball needing to be put in play (avoiding walks) and not giving up home runs, which in all but very rare cases cannot be fielded.

Stuff therefore is mainly to keep down batting average allowed, control to keep down walks allowed, and movement (along with giving up ground balls and not fly balls) to limit homers allowed.

There also should be some smaller ability for movement to cause lower BABIP and lower numbers of extra base hits. Fielding is significantly more important there than pitching, but pitching still matters-- just much less than previously thought-- in those; but I don't know if it does in OOTP.
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Old 08-02-2019, 12:02 PM   #7
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I believe that the game does have baked into it the ability for certain kinds of pitchers - mainly knuckleballers TMK - to affect their BABIP. The game *might* even have something build in for one pitch specialists, but I'm not sure (Mariano Rivera is a good example of a guy who gave up a lower-than-you'd-expect BABIP; as you'll remember, he was noted for throwing cutters, cutters, and more cutters). Outside of that there is a small correlation IRL between K rate and BABIP (i.e. the higher your K rate, the lower your BABIP) but it's not very large at all (I remember looking this up for Nolan Ryan once upon a time, for example, and determined that his career BABIP was all of like 10 points lower than the league average once you factored in the parks he played in).

But yeah, by and large if you have a guy go 20-6 for you with a 2.40 ERA and it's built off of a .200 BABIP, expect a lot of regression to the mean in the next season, both IRL and in OOTP.
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Old 08-02-2019, 02:23 PM   #8
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I've seen this bandied about in the forums before but never seen any proof. Do pitch types actually matter besides their affect on Stuff? Does a knuckleball lower BABIP? Can someone run a simulation on this.. 2 pitchers, 1 with an 80 rated curveball or whatever in his arsenal, and one with an 80 rated knuckleball instead. Test for different BABIP.
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Old 08-17-2019, 09:44 PM   #9
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Would high stuff or high movement have a greater impact on avoiding line drives (i.e. doubles and triples)?
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Old 08-17-2019, 11:40 PM   #10
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Would high stuff or high movement have a greater impact on avoiding line drives (i.e. doubles and triples)?
I donít believe any of the main ratings for pitchers affect line drives. They are focused on the three true outcomes (strikeouts hr walks).

Itís possible the gb/fb type affects it a bit.
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Old 08-18-2019, 02:30 PM   #11
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I use him in an all-time league much like PT. He's average there but the low walks/homers effects are very handy to have, and he has some "go 2-3 IP" potential to eat up the middle of the game until a closer is available.

What helps him is the team is he on is typically one of the best defensive teams in the league, so they eat up many more of the balls that will be hit into play. Pitchers like this you will want to make sure have a good defense. Relievers are probably pitching with defensive subs in anyway, but something to keep in mind.
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Old 08-18-2019, 05:37 PM   #12
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First, let me say it's difficult for me to provide large sample sizes of stats, since I play one game a day and correlate to the real calendar, and have done that for all my computer gaming life (started in 1987 with a different game, so I'm on season #32 right now. Been with OOTP since OOTP13).

However, I have been frustrated with the pitcher rating system since day one. Maybe being a pitcher myself once colors my opinion.

So here goes: If you have a guy with high stuff, low movement (even drastically low movement) and low-to-middling control, he still has the chance to be very successful in this game. The "Movement" measurement almost doesn't seem to matter, watching the games play out. It only seems to matter if the Stuff rating is also high, and then it helps keep the HR rate down.

But that's not how real life works. Jamie Moyer, for instance, would have had dismal "Stuff" numbers, above-average Movement and high control, and he pitched seemingly half a century. There are a lot of starters in baseball who could have said the same.

The Dan Quisenberry example is perfect: Q had great success as a closer, because his movement and his control added together made him just as successful (or even more so) than a guy who could throw 96-mph bullets but couldn't spin them or control them.

The problem in OOTP, is if the stuff rating is low, nothing else seems to matter. Velocity in this game might as well not be listed. Just for kicks this year, I created a guy who could throw 101+, but could only throw fastballs. So basically, think Aroldis Chapman before he figured out his slider was a plus pitch. The game has my guy rated with 12 "Stuff" (1-20 scale) and his strikeout count is minimal. Let me be the first to tell you, if you've got a guy hitting 101-105 on the gun, he's going to strike people out. He might give up a ton of HR when he has to groove a 3-0 pitch, but he WILL strike people out and he WILL be effective in short bursts, so long as his control is decent.

In actuality, we need to combine the "Stuff" and "Movement" categories. Replace the empty slot with something like "How to Pitch," "Guile," whatever. Then under the "Velocity" subcategory, add one for "Effect on BABIP" and have those two subcategories simply be informational for us, the player. Because right now, the game artificially inflates "Stuff" by the number of pitches a guy has -- and you can test this. Create a guy, give him five pitches and make them all 15/20 with a potential of 20. Don't touch the "Movement" category at all. In fact, turn it down and watch what happens. "Stuff" is going to stay high -- which is not possible in the real world. If you have a 15/20 slider, you have movement. If you have a 15/20 curveball, you have movement. It's like the "Movement" category only pertains to fastballs -- and if your movement is low there, you can't have a 20/20 fastball yet my league is crawling with guys who do.
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Old 08-20-2019, 05:25 PM   #13
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That's a *bit* reductive, which of course it is because it reduces pitchers to three ratings. Moyer had a plus-plus circle change and while he didn't have much in the way of velocity he was... at least mediocre at missing bats, and that's reflected in his K/9 ratings. There were worse guys at missing bats than him and they generally washed out of the league.

The thing is, pitchers for the most part don't have any special ability to influence their doubles, triples, and homeruns allowed outside of their ability to miss bats and avoid HRs, and even HRs are very heavily influenced by their ballpark. It's probably not a coincidence that Jamie Moyer's best years were at Safeco Field and not Coors. In any case, this has been studied extensively by guys who grew up with Johnny Podres or whoever and who insist that there has to be some special BABIP influence. There's just not. I guess there is *one* exception, which is that one pitch specialists tend to have a lower BABIP, although that could just as easily be expressed as they don't miss bats as much as you'd expect but it's made up with poor contact. I'm talking about players who literally throw one pitch 80% or more of the time, a list that's mostly knuckleball pitchers but there's also the occasional Mariano Rivera. You're probably *really* going to hate this but if there's any effect whatsoever, and it's very, very small, it's that *high* strikeout guys yield lower BABIPs than you'd expect.

Anyway, this is *absolutely* reflected in OOTP, and I think that you'll find that furthermore the farther back you go in league history the more low-stuff players you'll see. It works the opposite way, too: if you have a Bob Tewksbury type who never walks anyone and who avoids HRs, then as long as he does avoid those HRs he can K 4 guys per 9 (that's about a strikeout and a half less than Moyer, by the way), be league average, and occasionally have a Cy Young type season. Hell, I'm doing a 19th century league at the moment and stuff has gone from being not particularly useful (I think that circa 1876, weirdly enough the best attribute is stamina - nobody strikes out, nobody walks, and nobody hits HRs) to being a little bit useful but nowhere near as telling as Control.

For a player to be great with low Stuff, they have to have monstrous Control and either be groundball guys with great Movement or play in pitcher's parks. Again, that basically describes Jamie Moyer, and at that only describes him in his 30s and older. He was a very average pitcher in the 80s and 90s and only really turned into a Cy Young candidate when his walk totals approached Greg Maddux levels. Those players are going to be *very* rare in OOTP because they're equally rare IRL.
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Old 08-21-2019, 06:38 PM   #14
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We can argue about a lot of details, and the system does "work." But at the end of the day there are many things about the pitcher/pitch rating system that are not particularly logical when your really start to break them down.
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Old 08-21-2019, 09:34 PM   #15
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That's a *bit* reductive, which of course it is because it reduces pitchers to three ratings. Moyer had a plus-plus circle change and while he didn't have much in the way of velocity he was... at least mediocre at missing bats, and that's reflected in his K/9 ratings. There were worse guys at missing bats than him and they generally washed out of the league.

The thing is, pitchers for the most part don't have any special ability to influence their doubles, triples, and homeruns allowed outside of their ability to miss bats and avoid HRs, and even HRs are very heavily influenced by their ballpark. It's probably not a coincidence that Jamie Moyer's best years were at Safeco Field and not Coors. In any case, this has been studied extensively by guys who grew up with Johnny Podres or whoever and who insist that there has to be some special BABIP influence. There's just not. I guess there is *one* exception, which is that one pitch specialists tend to have a lower BABIP, although that could just as easily be expressed as they don't miss bats as much as you'd expect but it's made up with poor contact. I'm talking about players who literally throw one pitch 80% or more of the time, a list that's mostly knuckleball pitchers but there's also the occasional Mariano Rivera. You're probably *really* going to hate this but if there's any effect whatsoever, and it's very, very small, it's that *high* strikeout guys yield lower BABIPs than you'd expect.

Anyway, this is *absolutely* reflected in OOTP, and I think that you'll find that furthermore the farther back you go in league history the more low-stuff players you'll see. It works the opposite way, too: if you have a Bob Tewksbury type who never walks anyone and who avoids HRs, then as long as he does avoid those HRs he can K 4 guys per 9 (that's about a strikeout and a half less than Moyer, by the way), be league average, and occasionally have a Cy Young type season. Hell, I'm doing a 19th century league at the moment and stuff has gone from being not particularly useful (I think that circa 1876, weirdly enough the best attribute is stamina - nobody strikes out, nobody walks, and nobody hits HRs) to being a little bit useful but nowhere near as telling as Control.

For a player to be great with low Stuff, they have to have monstrous Control and either be groundball guys with great Movement or play in pitcher's parks. Again, that basically describes Jamie Moyer, and at that only describes him in his 30s and older. He was a very average pitcher in the 80s and 90s and only really turned into a Cy Young candidate when his walk totals approached Greg Maddux levels. Those players are going to be *very* rare in OOTP because they're equally rare IRL.

As for "reducing pitchers to three ratings," I'm not sure that's any different than what we have now. If Velocity actually means anything, it doesn't seem to matter much.


But putting that aside, if the system we have now cannot accurately account for how good Quisenberry was even as a low-velo submariner, then I would submit the system needs work. The one constant from OOTP13 to OOTP20, for me, is that no one with Stuff rated 10 or below (on a 1-20 scale) succeeds at the big-league level. I have not found one yet. They all get blown out of the park.
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Old 08-22-2019, 01:59 AM   #16
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Velocity makes a fairly important difference, just not in the way you're expecting it to.
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Old 08-22-2019, 10:16 AM   #17
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I'm pretty positive that Jamie Moyer would not have been below 10/20 in stuff until very late in his career. Quiz too.

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Old 08-22-2019, 11:22 AM   #18
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This goes to the point that--in reality--there is no formal/shared definition of "stuff." In OOTP, stuff = K-rate. But in baseball a guy can say "my stuff was there, but I couldn't get anyone out." Moyer had a reasonable K-rate, so his OOTP stuff has to be pretty fair. But you can probably find people who had great stuff because his junk moved, as well as that he succeeded despite weak stuff because he didn't throw hard.
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Old 08-22-2019, 11:25 AM   #19
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As for "reducing pitchers to three ratings," I'm not sure that's any different than what we have now. If Velocity actually means anything, it doesn't seem to matter much.


But putting that aside, if the system we have now cannot accurately account for how good Quisenberry was even as a low-velo submariner, then I would submit the system needs work. The one constant from OOTP13 to OOTP20, for me, is that no one with Stuff rated 10 or below (on a 1-20 scale) succeeds at the big-league level. I have not found one yet. They all get blown out of the park.
I use a 1-10 scale, but in my fictional save I see pitchers, starting pitchers mostly, with 4 or 5 stuff but very good to great movement and very good to great control who pitch very well. In fact, the ace of my staff, a pretty sure future HOF'er, has only 5 stuff but 8 movement and 9 control. And granted, his stuff was a bit better in his younger days, but he finished second in the Pitcher of the Year award voting in the most recently completed season with the ratings listed above.
I don't know why I see pitchers with stuff at the middle of the ratings scale or lower having success while you, with far more years of experience playing this game than I have, don't.

(I've also heard it said many times here by long-time OOTP'ers that pretty much any pitcher with a really low movement rate will inherently fail, no matter their other ratings. And one of the best starters on my staff has a 2 movement rating (again, 1-10 scale). So, with all of the varied statistical environments possible, the array of settings, etc., I'm skeptical of any broad generalizations about how things work in this game.)
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Old 08-22-2019, 12:08 PM   #20
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(I've also heard it said many times here by long-time OOTP'ers that pretty much any pitcher with a really low movement rate will inherently fail, no matter their other ratings. And one of the best starters on my staff has a 2 movement rating (again, 1-10 scale). So, with all of the varied statistical environments possible, the array of settings, etc., I'm skeptical of any broad generalizations about how things work in this game.)
If you look you can find OOTP pitchers who are successful despite big holes in any of the three primary rating categories, though on the whole "stuff" (k-rate) tends to require bigger OOTP ratings. In other words, a 2 of 10 Movement can sometimes work if everything else is great, but a 2 stuff will likely be problematic no matter what. But even then, it all depends on other ratings in the league around that player. Put a "low stuff" guy in a league with hitters who trend low on AvK, and he'll do better.

In MLB, how low these ratings can go could be viewed as asking "how few hitters can a pitcher strike out and remain in the league?" (for example). Or "how often can a guy give up homers and stay in the league?" For strikeouts, that rate in the "modern day" (meaning the past 40 years or so?) has been about 4.5/9, give or take...feel free to mush that around a bit, or raise it up for the past five-ten years...whatever...pitchers can dip below that for awhile, but if they fall below that line for long, they should probably start working on their broadcasting chops.

In OOTP, depending on the league's hitters AvK and your league totals and whatnot, that level is probably about a 4 of 10. Just spitballing.

Still, that isn't "stuff" in the robust way baseball people talk about it. It's just K-rate.

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