Hints from the scouting paragraph

Acuna Matata · 09-21-2018, 06:57 PM

Just wondering if other players generally place much stock on the phrases used in the player scouting tab when deciding whether to trade, sign or release someone.
I guess the clear cut ones such as ‘cornerstone of the franchise’, anything relating to Cy Young or HOF speak for themselves but im starting to notice others that dont seem to be as reliable.
One i have in mind is ‘should expect a lions share of starts at his position’ as ive seen this tagged with players who have done amazingly well and also those that have never amounted to a hill of beans. Possibly TCR could be at play here but with some of the players who have not panned out then their stars and ratings have not dropped but their performance has just never been there.
One im starting to believe in is ‘use their obvious talent to flourish at the plate’ where as im less convinced by any that mention ‘the front of the rotation’.
Any other thoughts on this area of the game would be really appreciated.

NoOne · 09-21-2018, 08:31 PM

i don't think it is based on the under-the-hood 'real' ratings, if that's what you mean.

a range of ratings will result in the same, if not varied, verbage you see in the scouting reports. if you can find discrepancies, maybe what you are hoping for is true, though.

it's possible some phrases are used in 2 different ranges? etc etc... if it's like clockwork about tipping its hand, i'd say you are right... if it's extremely rare, i'd chalk it up to something else and if not still unuseable/unpredictable if so rare.

BirdWatcher · 09-25-2018, 06:40 PM

I'm fascinated by the question but also nowhere near having any answers yet. I find myself keeping somewhat meticulous records of the scouting reports over time for my better (not necessarily just my top) prospects.
Partly in order to gather data about what verbiage might be more or less important and predictive.
And maybe none of it really is. I'm not sure. But it's fascinating to watch things bounce around from something like, should be an average major league thirdbaseman, to will probably be on the bubble for a major league role, to a reliable hitter in the organization's grand scheme, or whatever the specific wording is. (Not in front of game right now.)
I find myself trying to not pay too much attention to the text of these reports and focus mostly on ratings and statistics. But I do love reading these and I so want to get to a place where I can have more confidence in my understanding of what they might mean, and better at reading between the lines.
I love one I saw for the first time for one of my minor league catchers in the past few days- something to the effect that pitchers love pitching to him. He has a solid catcher ability rating but not better than some other prospects in the organization, but he's the only one I've seen this wording for yet. It makes me wonder if his under the hood potential isn't greater and that he could eventually really help the pitching staff maximize their potential.
Part of what I love about this game is the mystery, the unknown, the speculative. But part of what I also love is trying to figure it out a bit more and make more well educated guesses.

Brad K · 09-26-2018, 12:34 AM

I don't take them seriously. Can be amusing at times.

NoOne · 09-30-2018, 05:50 PM

best to use comissioner mode to flesh out that, if you wanted. i'd start with the color coded ranges. dark blue, lighter blue, teal, dark green etc...

i'd wager the verbage, while varied, will tell you a ~20pts range or so. how many color codes are there? edit - 40pt range in editor, assuming 100pt scale.

ignoring > 250

1 blue 160-200 or 81-100 or top 20% of scale, significant rounding errors with smaller scales.
2 Green 120-159 or 61-80
3 yellow 80-119 or 41-60
4 orange 40-79 or 21-40
5 red ... 0-39 or 1-20* you don't show "1" on pitches that are unknown or defensive positions et al...

but, there are also divisions within those, plus > max ranges. think dark blue / bright blue are the top 20 / >max. then you have mixed coler between, like teal between blue and green, but it's the 'upper' green quintile.

categorize the verbage into those 5-10 groups, then compare for discrepancies to scouting values or the other way around. i doubt it tips its hand, though. no different than taking your cues from the color code or the numerical value.

even the smallest "5 star" scale is a 10-pt scale, unless it includes zero. matches up with the colors. then, it's 11.

when contact breaches 160/200, they are typicaly your perennial batting monsters, if they have power too, or at least a monster lead-off guy. if no power, i'm looking for ~85 or ~170+. those are the guys i'm willing to spend max contract money on, nothing else.

BirdWatcher · 10-03-2018, 06:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoOne

best to use comissioner mode to flesh out that, if you wanted. i'd start with the color coded ranges. dark blue, lighter blue, teal, dark green etc...

i'd wager the verbage, while varied, will tell you a ~20pts range or so. how many color codes are there? edit - 40pt range in editor, assuming 100pt scale.

ignoring > 250

1 blue 160-200 or 81-100 or top 20% of scale, significant rounding errors with smaller scales.
2 Green 120-159 or 61-80
3 yellow 80-119 or 41-60
4 orange 40-79 or 21-40
5 red ... 0-39 or 1-20* you don't show "1" on pitches that are unknown or defensive positions et al...

but, there are also divisions within those, plus > max ranges. think dark blue / bright blue are the top 20 / >max. then you have mixed coler between, like teal between blue and green, but it's the 'upper' green quintile.

categorize the verbage into those 5-10 groups, then compare for discrepancies to scouting values or the other way around. i doubt it tips its hand, though. no different than taking your cues from the color code or the numerical value.

even the smallest "5 star" scale is a 10-pt scale, unless it includes zero. matches up with the colors. then, it's 11.

when contact breaches 160/200, they are typicaly your perennial batting monsters, if they have power too, or at least a monster lead-off guy. if no power, i'm looking for ~85 or ~170+. those are the guys i'm willing to spend max contract money on, nothing else.

Oh my gosh- that sounds like a very logical, scientific approach and also absolutely no fun to me.

I think this is very good advice for the OP if the idea is to get to some kind of measurable result quickly and accurately. Which I suppose is what most people would want to do.
I am probably a bit of an oddball around here as I prefer to embrace the mystery and my own learning curve. And don't care very much (well, a little) about winning. At least not right away. I'd rather have to work for it a bit more organically. Part of the fun, for me, is to try to get to some clarity (not too much, mind you) through a process of trial and error and not by poking around in the guts of the thing much or very directly.

Different strokes for different folks. I always appreciate your well-thought out, logical responses here.

NoOne · 10-03-2018, 07:57 PM

they could hide it enough that you'd have to have a super memory to deduce any hints, otherwise. for the record, i doubt there is any hint, and i would never try to flesh it out with that much effort, lol. while not impossible, someone would have posted about it by now. any online league would sniff that out for sure by now... competition is a good thing, typically.

MattP598 · 10-23-2018, 05:18 AM

Also, in real baseball there are can't miss prospects that miss all the time.

09-21-2018, 06:57 PM	#1
Acuna Matata Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Jul 2018 Posts: 32	Hints from the scouting paragraph Just wondering if other players generally place much stock on the phrases used in the player scouting tab when deciding whether to trade, sign or release someone. I guess the clear cut ones such as ‘cornerstone of the franchise’, anything relating to Cy Young or HOF speak for themselves but im starting to notice others that dont seem to be as reliable. One i have in mind is ‘should expect a lions share of starts at his position’ as ive seen this tagged with players who have done amazingly well and also those that have never amounted to a hill of beans. Possibly TCR could be at play here but with some of the players who have not panned out then their stars and ratings have not dropped but their performance has just never been there. One im starting to believe in is ‘use their obvious talent to flourish at the plate’ where as im less convinced by any that mention ‘the front of the rotation’. Any other thoughts on this area of the game would be really appreciated.

09-26-2018, 12:34 AM	#4
Brad K Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2016 Location: St Petersburg Florida USA Posts: 5,417	I don't take them seriously. Can be amusing at times. Last edited by Brad K; 09-26-2018 at 12:35 AM.

09-30-2018, 05:50 PM	#5
NoOne Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,167	best to use comissioner mode to flesh out that, if you wanted. i'd start with the color coded ranges. dark blue, lighter blue, teal, dark green etc... i'd wager the verbage, while varied, will tell you a ~20pts range or so. how many color codes are there? edit - 40pt range in editor, assuming 100pt scale. ignoring > 250 1 blue 160-200 or 81-100 or top 20% of scale, significant rounding errors with smaller scales. 2 Green 120-159 or 61-80 3 yellow 80-119 or 41-60 4 orange 40-79 or 21-40 5 red ... 0-39 or 1-20* you don't show "1" on pitches that are unknown or defensive positions et al... but, there are also divisions within those, plus > max ranges. think dark blue / bright blue are the top 20 / >max. then you have mixed coler between, like teal between blue and green, but it's the 'upper' green quintile. categorize the verbage into those 5-10 groups, then compare for discrepancies to scouting values or the other way around. i doubt it tips its hand, though. no different than taking your cues from the color code or the numerical value. even the smallest "5 star" scale is a 10-pt scale, unless it includes zero. matches up with the colors. then, it's 11. when contact breaches 160/200, they are typicaly your perennial batting monsters, if they have power too, or at least a monster lead-off guy. if no power, i'm looking for ~85 or ~170+. those are the guys i'm willing to spend max contract money on, nothing else. Last edited by NoOne; 09-30-2018 at 05:52 PM.

09-21-2018, 08:31 PM	#2
NoOne Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,167	i don't think it is based on the under-the-hood 'real' ratings, if that's what you mean. a range of ratings will result in the same, if not varied, verbage you see in the scouting reports. if you can find discrepancies, maybe what you are hoping for is true, though. it's possible some phrases are used in 2 different ranges? etc etc... if it's like clockwork about tipping its hand, i'd say you are right... if it's extremely rare, i'd chalk it up to something else and if not still unuseable/unpredictable if so rare.

09-25-2018, 06:40 PM	#3
BirdWatcher Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2018 Location: Denver, Colorado Posts: 4,262	I'm fascinated by the question but also nowhere near having any answers yet. I find myself keeping somewhat meticulous records of the scouting reports over time for my better (not necessarily just my top) prospects. Partly in order to gather data about what verbiage might be more or less important and predictive. And maybe none of it really is. I'm not sure. But it's fascinating to watch things bounce around from something like, should be an average major league thirdbaseman, to will probably be on the bubble for a major league role, to a reliable hitter in the organization's grand scheme, or whatever the specific wording is. (Not in front of game right now.) I find myself trying to not pay too much attention to the text of these reports and focus mostly on ratings and statistics. But I do love reading these and I so want to get to a place where I can have more confidence in my understanding of what they might mean, and better at reading between the lines. I love one I saw for the first time for one of my minor league catchers in the past few days- something to the effect that pitchers love pitching to him. He has a solid catcher ability rating but not better than some other prospects in the organization, but he's the only one I've seen this wording for yet. It makes me wonder if his under the hood potential isn't greater and that he could eventually really help the pitching staff maximize their potential. Part of what I love about this game is the mystery, the unknown, the speculative. But part of what I also love is trying to figure it out a bit more and make more well educated guesses.

10-03-2018, 07:57 PM	#7
NoOne Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,167	they could hide it enough that you'd have to have a super memory to deduce any hints, otherwise. for the record, i doubt there is any hint, and i would never try to flesh it out with that much effort, lol. while not impossible, someone would have posted about it by now. any online league would sniff that out for sure by now... competition is a good thing, typically.

10-23-2018, 05:18 AM	#8
MattP598 Bat Boy Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 18	Also, in real baseball there are can't miss prospects that miss all the time.