Further reading and Sabermetrics

Acuna Matata · 09-15-2018, 07:11 AM

Just wondering if many other players are having success incorporating sabermetric analysis into their save as ive been reading a few books and articles on these theories and ive had varying success so far.
For instance a book i was reading about two baseball writers who ran an independant minor league franchise for a year put foward how the probability of a successful stolen base should then affect decision making.
I think it was anything 75% or above likelihood of success was a net positive but anything less was a negative for overall run production.
I may be misquoting as that idea may instead be from The next Shift’ by Russell Carleton but what i took away from it was that as i can assess steal attempts success rate in OOTP then i can work out which players are capable of benefitting or hurting my team in a steal situation.
One of these books also attempted to explode the myth of the bunt being a useful option as again the percentage of times a bunt helps your team produce runs drops even if you advance a runner already on base.
As i result ive been much more selective which of my players i give the green light for a steal to and ive also massively reduced how often my team bunts so i’ll see how this pans out over the next few seasons.
Linked to this if there’s any other helpful reading that anyone can point me to then i’d happily look further into it.

Brad K · 09-18-2018, 10:33 PM

Break even for steals changes depending on what season you are playing.

Data I have seen on sacrifice bunts doesn't allow evaluation of an extreme situation, such as ninth inning tied or down by 1 very poor hitter who is a very good bunter.

for a time I played no sacrifice bunts allowed and then moved to allowing them in the situation above.

Acuna Matata · 09-21-2018, 06:32 PM

Two seasons on and i lost my first world series after taking a 3-0 lead, so despite the obvious deflation of coming so close its made me think that less steal attempts/bunts is helping my overall run production as im creating less uneccessary outs for my team.
Have to say it was a total surprise that my team came from a way below .500 season last year to fly through the playoffs to be pipped to the post in the final game.

09-15-2018, 07:11 AM	#1
Acuna Matata Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Jul 2018 Posts: 32	Further reading and Sabermetrics Just wondering if many other players are having success incorporating sabermetric analysis into their save as ive been reading a few books and articles on these theories and ive had varying success so far. For instance a book i was reading about two baseball writers who ran an independant minor league franchise for a year put foward how the probability of a successful stolen base should then affect decision making. I think it was anything 75% or above likelihood of success was a net positive but anything less was a negative for overall run production. I may be misquoting as that idea may instead be from The next Shift’ by Russell Carleton but what i took away from it was that as i can assess steal attempts success rate in OOTP then i can work out which players are capable of benefitting or hurting my team in a steal situation. One of these books also attempted to explode the myth of the bunt being a useful option as again the percentage of times a bunt helps your team produce runs drops even if you advance a runner already on base. As i result ive been much more selective which of my players i give the green light for a steal to and ive also massively reduced how often my team bunts so i’ll see how this pans out over the next few seasons. Linked to this if there’s any other helpful reading that anyone can point me to then i’d happily look further into it.

09-18-2018, 10:33 PM	#2
Brad K Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2016 Location: St Petersburg Florida USA Posts: 5,421	Break even for steals changes depending on what season you are playing. Data I have seen on sacrifice bunts doesn't allow evaluation of an extreme situation, such as ninth inning tied or down by 1 very poor hitter who is a very good bunter. for a time I played no sacrifice bunts allowed and then moved to allowing them in the situation above.

09-21-2018, 06:32 PM	#3
Acuna Matata Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Jul 2018 Posts: 32	Two seasons on and i lost my first world series after taking a 3-0 lead, so despite the obvious deflation of coming so close its made me think that less steal attempts/bunts is helping my overall run production as im creating less uneccessary outs for my team. Have to say it was a total surprise that my team came from a way below .500 season last year to fly through the playoffs to be pipped to the post in the final game.