The Strengths of OOTP Historical Simulations

Garlon · 08-21-2010, 08:51 AM

What makes OOTP Historical Simulations so great?

I have been working with Lead Developer Markus Heinsohn on improving OOTP’s historical simulation since OOTP 7. Over the years we have continued to add new features and model every aspect of baseball as accurately as statistical probability will allow. I’d like to point out that Spritze has made an enormous contribution to the process by assisting us with programming the neutralized stat database – we could not have done it without his help. Here’s a run-down of the various elements that OOTP has that provides an accurate historical simulation of all time periods in history.

A. Accurate League/Player Totals, Rates, and Matchup Outcomes

Each season throughout history has its own league batting average, HR rate, strikeout rate, double play rate, etc. As you play from one season to the next OOTP accurately models these variations to accuracies sometimes within hundredths of a percent! So here are the elements we model based on real yearly historical data 1871-present:

1. Batting Average
2. Doubles rates
3. Triples rates
4. Homerun rates
5. Base on Balls rates
6. Hit By Pitch rates
7. Strikeout rates
8. BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play)
9. Starting Pitcher Inning Pitched Outs (IPouts) per Game Started
10. Starting Pitcher Complete Game rates
11. Groundball Out Percentage
12. Wild Pitch rates
13. Balk rates
14. Passed Ball rates
15. Sac Fly rates
16. Sac Bunt rates
17. Stolen Base Attempt rates
18. Stolen Base Success rates
19. Ground Ball Double Play rates
20. Line-Drive Double Play rates
21. Outfielder Assist rates
22. Fielding Percentage rates for each position each year in history

So when you simulate each season with OOTP you will have extremely accurate rates in each of these categories. In the end, aspects like ERA and Runs per Game rates also turn out like they should.

OOTP’s play outcomes and pitcher/batter matchup results are based on DIPS (Defensive Independent Pitching Statistics) and the Log5 method. No play outcomes or events are “canned” or forced in OOTP to make player and league stats turn out accurate. The only thing at work in OOTP is pure statistical probability which makes this game a true simulation.

B. Players Retire According to History

In OOTP you have the option to have players retire from the league when they did in real life. You can disable this feature, but the simulation becomes much more realistic when you enable it.

C. Base Player Ratings and abilities on Neutralized Stats or Real Life Stats

The Real Life Stats option is pretty much self explanatory. However, I think there may be a great deal of confusion about our Neutralized Stats database. The Neutralized Stats option provides the most realistic outcomes and ratings for players since these stats are park- and run- neutralized. So players like Willie Davis (1960-1979) who played much of his career for the Dodgers in the toughest hitter’s ballpark in the league are not at a disadvantage in the simulation. Neutralizing his stats allow such hitters to perform to their ability had they been in a different hitter’s environment. If you want more information on how this neutralization process woks check out the section on Willie Davis in The New Bill James Historical Abstract pgs 740-743. The same neutralization process can be explored on baseball-reference.com also.

So since the neutralization process is also run-neutralized (750-run per year environment) will players overperform? No, absolutely not. Remember, we model the league environment from season to season. So even though the player stats are neutralized to a 750-run environment, they will not necessarily be playing in a 750-run environment when you simulate. In the end, the players perform exactly as they should over the course of their career. With the Neutralized Stats no hitters in OOTP will have boosted abilities because they racked up their real life stats in great hitter’s parks, nor will any pitchers have increased abilities because they played in great pitcher’s parks. Likewise, no hitters or pitchers will end up under-rated because they played in poor hitter’s or poor pitcher’s parks respectively.

In addition to the Hitter and Pitcher Stats being neutralized in OOTP, we also went to the extra extent of Neutralizing all of the historical defensive stats as well. Defenders on teams with high strikeout pitching staffs do not get as many opportunities in the field to make outs and that distorts their raw real-life Put Out and Assist totals and therefore their Range Factors. Our neutralized stats take into account pitching staff strikeout rates, excess left-handed or right-handed pitching, team defensive efficiency, groundball rates, team expected double plays and other variables that would otherwise not allow for direct comparison of defenders based on their real-life stats. Now we can do this. We even went to the extent o determining things like Unassisted Put Outs by 1Bmen so that we can accurately rate them too.

So now you are saying “sure even if you can neutralize their defensive stats you still don’t know how many defensive innings each player in history had because the real life data only goes back about 50 years and therefore you still can’t know their true Range Factor”. Well guess what, we actually do have player defensive inning outs going all the way back to 1871 in our database. For more information check out the section titled Estimated Defensive Innings in Bill James Win Shares pgs 155-160. We even went the extra step of determining Outfielder Innings played each season at each of the 3 outfield positions for each player, not just their total outfield defensive innings.

So if you ever wondered “how good would player X be if he didn’t play half of his games at Coors Field?” now you can find out in the simulation with our neutralized stats.

In addition to this we also filled in the gaps in player career when In real life they did not play because they were in the minor leagues or because they were injured. In situations in which a player only had a handful of AB’s in a season we pro-rated that season of his neutralized stats up to 250 AB basing the missing AB’s on his career averages. This eliminates problems with trying to accurately rate players if they only had a small sample size of AB in a season

D. Multi-Year Recalculation Ratings Base and Base Pitcher Stamina Options

In OOTP you have the option to base player ratings and abilities solely on their historical stats of a season in question (1-yr recalc), or you can base their ratings on spans of 3 or 5 seasons (3-yr or 5-yr recalc). I prefer 3-yr recalc myself. By using 3-yr recalc player ratings are based on their real life or neutralized stats of the season you are playing and also the season before and after that. The 3-yr base of ratings further eliminates the potential of rating players on a small sample size of AB or IP since. It also minimizes the impact of players in history who had fluke seasons. Of course in OOTP you have the option of 1-yr, 3-yr, or 5-yr recalc, whichever suits your tastes.

For pitchers you also have the option to base their Stamina on multi-year spans or even their whole career. In real life there were great pitchers like Sandy Koufax who were used as relievers early in their career and then as Starters later in their career. I you use a multi-year recalc base for their Stamina rating then they will end up being used as relievers when they were relievers in real life and starters when they were starters in real life. If you choose to base their Stamina on their Career stats then a guy like Koufax could be used as a starting pitcher any year of his career since he was primarily a starting pitcher in his career, this way you r the Ai are not forced into using a pitcher the way his real life manager used him…likewise a pitcher who was primarily a reliever will then end up with a Stamina rating of a relief pitcher his entire career. Again, it’s up to you how you want to run your league.

Using Multi-Year Recalc in tandem with Retire Players According to History and Neutralized Stats will provide the most realistic simulation with individual player ratings and performance following their real life career curves.

E. AI Rookie Draft Logic

If you enable the option for the AI to use pre-defined draft value in the rookie draft each season you will give yourself a real challenge. Don’t expect superstar players to slip to the bottom of the first round. This aspect AI essentially uses a combination of a player’s potential (career OPS or ERA) and his career length to rank all of the available players in the draft. So when you get to the last round of the rookie draft all you have left are a bunch of guys who only had a cup of coffee in the big leagues. Whereas in the first round all of your hall of famers and all-star caliber players will get chosen.

F. Historical Ballpark Data

OOTP has park factors and dimensions for each park each year going back to 1901. Of course you have the option to play with all parks set to neutral park factors if you’d prefer.

G. Tons and Tons of options to customize your league.
You can start in any season you want going all the way back to 1871.

Decide how many teams you want in your league. Want to play with 20 teams in 1925 instead of 16? Go for it. Just use OOTP’s options to expand the league or add new teams and even divisions in your leagues.

You can change the names of the franchises in your leagues and in which cities they play.

Decide for each sub-league if you want to use a DH or not.

Choose the typical rotation size and rotation mode for your league.

Decide on the playoff format for series length and how many teams make the playoffs in each league.

And many more options. If you can think of something you want to customize you can probably do it in OOTP historical simulations.

If I can clarify anything else about historical simulations in OOTP for anyone, let me know. I can continue to add to this original post or reply within the thread.

dickysty · 08-21-2010, 10:47 AM

Garlon, This is great information!

F. Historical Ballpark Data

OOTP has park factors and dimensions for each park each year going back to 1901. Of course you have the option to play with all parks set to neutral park factors if you’d prefer.

Can you tell me where this option is in the game? I can't seem to locate it.

RchW · 08-21-2010, 01:12 PM

I agree. A nice primer.

Thanks Garlon for the time you put into the game.

Garlon · 08-21-2010, 03:37 PM

dickysty -

The file with the data can be found:

My Documents\Out of the Park Developments\OOTP Baseball 11\database

The file in that folder is called era_ballparks. It is a .txt file, comma de-limited. You can open it with Excel to view the data if you want.

However, in your league you have the option to "Automatically Adjust League Strategy". Game Setup>League Setup>Historical>Historical Progressing Optons

skunkle333 · 08-21-2010, 09:58 PM

Garlon...

I really appreciated your detailed post. I really got into V11 when it came out. I thought for awhile that it even challenged my great addiction to DMB. The games I played with V11 were very realistic...the script was very good and all I play is historical games.

For several weeks I even worked through much of the complexity of the game in setups etc. Printed out a good deal of the manual. At least there was a good deal that was complex to my old mind but I didn't mind it and often found the extended reading and study was fun. The fellas on the forums were very helpful and patient with my problems.

I still sometimes play the superb 1959 quickstart that PStrickert created. I'm a 59 White Sox fanatic.

But alas my play with OOTP is very seldom now. I might get to play out a full DMB pitch by pitch game (which is the only way I play...95% of the time) maybe 2-3 times a month. By far most of my play is for just 2-5 innings or so with my life schedule. But pitch by pitch is great baseball and it's just like reading another chapter in a solid baseball game so I don't mind playing in limited time spans. Added to this limited play is that I might do it 3-6 times a day when I can grab the 15 minutes or so.

But that is where the final kicker came taking me away from OOTP regular enjoyment. The game has no ability to save a game in progress so I am sunk. When I do get those times when I play a 1959 game I still have to sim some innings to get the game in and it ruins the whole experience. In my old age I can't play the shortcut...readers digest...play by play or simming game anymore. Either pitch by pitch or forget it. That's just me.

The other thing that takes a good bit of enjoyment away is the fact that I can't see the players actual real life stats listed on the widget screen during the game. For me this is just unreal. All those stats...many of them appreciated but I can't see the stats for the historical year I'm actually playing. For me it's just a no brainer that I can't understand.

I should just skip posting this but I'll go ahead. I haven't posted for some time and still frequent the forum because the game has so much that is excellent. There is nothing like the sounds...player pics etc in a good OOTP game. Pitch by pitch holds all the drama of a real life game.

Your detailed report just adds to my appreciation of the improvements to the game over V9 and 10. The forum is loaded with kind fellas that are really helpful with the game. They sure helped me alot in the past several years and a good deal this year when I was getting into V11.

Just felt like sharing my personal frustrations with the game while trying to compliment it in many ways. My hope is that somewhere along the line we will be able to save a game in progress and see the actual real life stats for the season we are playing right on the actual game play screen.

Thanks for the further details on the historical work all you fellas have made. I appreciate them very much. I just wish...

Biggio509 · 08-25-2010, 09:10 PM

How do you compensate for guys with short sample sizes being over rated. I have found using real stats that some guys who got a coffee cup at the major league level sometimes get better stats than starters because they have good stats for the few AB or IP. I usually turn on weaken pitchers and batters with fewer than X AB or IP. Maybe it is that my AB and IP setting are two low and some coffee cup type guys have just enogh AB or IP to keep the game from weakening them?

Garlon · 08-25-2010, 09:49 PM

Biggio509 - If you use neutralized stats all position players are pro-rated to 250 Ab each season. For players who had fewer than 250 AB in their career we used a replacement level based on their position to pro-rate the missing A's to get them to 250 AB each season. For pithers we did the same if they had fewer than 40 IP career.

DWK · 08-26-2010, 05:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garlon

What makes OOTP Historical Simulations so great?

I have been working with Lead Developer Markus Heinsohn on improving OOTP’s historical simulation since OOTP 7. Over the years we have continued to add new features and model every aspect of baseball as accurately as statistical probability will allow. I’d like to point out that Spritze has made an enormous contribution to the process by assisting us with programming the neutralized stat database – we could not have done it without his help. Here’s a run-down of the various elements that OOTP has that provides an accurate historical simulation of all time periods in history.

A. Accurate League/Player Totals, Rates, and Matchup Outcomes

Each season throughout history has its own league batting average, HR rate, strikeout rate, double play rate, etc. As you play from one season to the next OOTP accurately models these variations to accuracies sometimes within hundredths of a percent! So here are the elements we model based on real yearly historical data 1871-present:

1. Batting Average
2. Doubles rates
3. Triples rates
4. Homerun rates
5. Base on Balls rates
6. Hit By Pitch rates
7. Strikeout rates
8. BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play)
9. Starting Pitcher Inning Pitched Outs (IPouts) per Game Started
10. Starting Pitcher Complete Game rates
11. Groundball Out Percentage
12. Wild Pitch rates
13. Balk rates
14. Passed Ball rates
15. Sac Fly rates
16. Sac Bunt rates
17. Stolen Base Attempt rates
18. Stolen Base Success rates
19. Ground Ball Double Play rates
20. Line-Drive Double Play rates
21. Outfielder Assist rates
22. Fielding Percentage rates for each position each year in history

So when you simulate each season with OOTP you will have extremely accurate rates in each of these categories. In the end, aspects like ERA and Runs per Game rates also turn out like they should.

OOTP’s play outcomes and pitcher/batter matchup results are based on DIPS (Defensive Independent Pitching Statistics) and the Log5 method. No play outcomes or events are “canned” or forced in OOTP to make player and league stats turn out accurate. The only thing at work in OOTP is pure statistical probability which makes this game a true simulation.

B. Players Retire According to History

In OOTP you have the option to have players retire from the league when they did in real life. You can disable this feature, but the simulation becomes much more realistic when you enable it.

C. Base Player Ratings and abilities on Neutralized Stats or Real Life Stats

The Real Life Stats option is pretty much self explanatory. However, I think there may be a great deal of confusion about our Neutralized Stats database. The Neutralized Stats option provides the most realistic outcomes and ratings for players since these stats are park- and run- neutralized. So players like Willie Davis (1960-1979) who played much of his career for the Dodgers in the toughest hitter’s ballpark in the league are not at a disadvantage in the simulation. Neutralizing his stats allow such hitters to perform to their ability had they been in a different hitter’s environment. If you want more information on how this neutralization process woks check out the section on Willie Davis in The New Bill James Historical Abstract pgs 740-743. The same neutralization process can be explored on baseball-reference.com also.

So since the neutralization process is also run-neutralized (750-run per year environment) will players overperform? No, absolutely not. Remember, we model the league environment from season to season. So even though the player stats are neutralized to a 750-run environment, they will not necessarily be playing in a 750-run environment when you simulate. In the end, the players perform exactly as they should over the course of their career. With the Neutralized Stats no hitters in OOTP will have boosted abilities because they racked up their real life stats in great hitter’s parks, nor will any pitchers have increased abilities because they played in great pitcher’s parks. Likewise, no hitters or pitchers will end up under-rated because they played in poor hitter’s or poor pitcher’s parks respectively.

In addition to the Hitter and Pitcher Stats being neutralized in OOTP, we also went to the extra extent of Neutralizing all of the historical defensive stats as well. Defenders on teams with high strikeout pitching staffs do not get as many opportunities in the field to make outs and that distorts their raw real-life Put Out and Assist totals and therefore their Range Factors. Our neutralized stats take into account pitching staff strikeout rates, excess left-handed or right-handed pitching, team defensive efficiency, groundball rates, team expected double plays and other variables that would otherwise not allow for direct comparison of defenders based on their real-life stats. Now we can do this. We even went to the extent o determining things like Unassisted Put Outs by 1Bmen so that we can accurately rate them too.

So now you are saying “sure even if you can neutralize their defensive stats you still don’t know how many defensive innings each player in history had because the real life data only goes back about 50 years and therefore you still can’t know their true Range Factor”. Well guess what, we actually do have player defensive inning outs going all the way back to 1871 in our database. For more information check out the section titled Estimated Defensive Innings in Bill James Win Shares pgs 155-160. We even went the extra step of determining Outfielder Innings played each season at each of the 3 outfield positions for each player, not just their total outfield defensive innings.

So if you ever wondered “how good would player X be if he didn’t play half of his games at Coors Field?” now you can find out in the simulation with our neutralized stats.

In addition to this we also filled in the gaps in player career when In real life they did not play because they were in the minor leagues or because they were injured. In situations in which a player only had a handful of AB’s in a season we pro-rated that season of his neutralized stats up to 250 AB basing the missing AB’s on his career averages. This eliminates problems with trying to accurately rate players if they only had a small sample size of AB in a season

D. Multi-Year Recalculation Ratings Base and Base Pitcher Stamina Options

In OOTP you have the option to base player ratings and abilities solely on their historical stats of a season in question (1-yr recalc), or you can base their ratings on spans of 3 or 5 seasons (3-yr or 5-yr recalc). I prefer 3-yr recalc myself. By using 3-yr recalc player ratings are based on their real life or neutralized stats of the season you are playing and also the season before and after that. The 3-yr base of ratings further eliminates the potential of rating players on a small sample size of AB or IP since. It also minimizes the impact of players in history who had fluke seasons. Of course in OOTP you have the option of 1-yr, 3-yr, or 5-yr recalc, whichever suits your tastes.

For pitchers you also have the option to base their Stamina on multi-year spans or even their whole career. In real life there were great pitchers like Sandy Koufax who were used as relievers early in their career and then as Starters later in their career. I you use a multi-year recalc base for their Stamina rating then they will end up being used as relievers when they were relievers in real life and starters when they were starters in real life. If you choose to base their Stamina on their Career stats then a guy like Koufax could be used as a starting pitcher any year of his career since he was primarily a starting pitcher in his career, this way you r the Ai are not forced into using a pitcher the way his real life manager used him…likewise a pitcher who was primarily a reliever will then end up with a Stamina rating of a relief pitcher his entire career. Again, it’s up to you how you want to run your league.

Using Multi-Year Recalc in tandem with Retire Players According to History and Neutralized Stats will provide the most realistic simulation with individual player ratings and performance following their real life career curves.

E. AI Rookie Draft Logic

If you enable the option for the AI to use pre-defined draft value in the rookie draft each season you will give yourself a real challenge. Don’t expect superstar players to slip to the bottom of the first round. This aspect AI essentially uses a combination of a player’s potential (career OPS or ERA) and his career length to rank all of the available players in the draft. So when you get to the last round of the rookie draft all you have left are a bunch of guys who only had a cup of coffee in the big leagues. Whereas in the first round all of your hall of famers and all-star caliber players will get chosen.

F. Historical Ballpark Data

OOTP has park factors and dimensions for each park each year going back to 1901. Of course you have the option to play with all parks set to neutral park factors if you’d prefer.

G. Tons and Tons of options to customize your league.
You can start in any season you want going all the way back to 1871.

Decide how many teams you want in your league. Want to play with 20 teams in 1925 instead of 16? Go for it. Just use OOTP’s options to expand the league or add new teams and even divisions in your leagues.

You can change the names of the franchises in your leagues and in which cities they play.

Decide for each sub-league if you want to use a DH or not.

Choose the typical rotation size and rotation mode for your league.

Decide on the playoff format for series length and how many teams make the playoffs in each league.

And many more options. If you can think of something you want to customize you can probably do it in OOTP historical simulations.

If I can clarify anything else about historical simulations in OOTP for anyone, let me know. I can continue to add to this original post or reply within the thread.

Good Stuff

Cornelius McGillicuddy · 08-26-2010, 09:24 PM

This is very good. The only thing missing so far as I can tell is realistic financials during the reserve clause era.

Biggio509 · 08-27-2010, 10:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garlon

Biggio509 - If you use neutralized stats all position players are pro-rated to 250 Ab each season. For players who had fewer than 250 AB in their career we used a replacement level based on their position to pro-rate the missing A's to get them to 250 AB each season. For pithers we did the same if they had fewer than 40 IP career.

I can try this now. I removed the OBD and was using real 19th century setups so the neut stats were not working. The patch released today says that is fixed though. Yeah!

pstrickert · 08-27-2010, 10:57 AM

The problem with pro-rating to 250 ABs is that, often, rookies will play extensively a year too soon. IRL, they probably were not quite ready. So, they got a few ABs late in the year (or earlier in the year, but didn't perform too well). If they're pro-rated to 250 ABs in that first season, the AI often uses them extensively (esp. if 3-year recalc is enabled). That means, of course, that someone else (who received those ABs IRL) loses them. It also means that, in the end, the rookie who entered a year too soon will have an extra year's worth of stats for his career. It might not bother some people; but it bothers me.

Syd Thrift · 08-27-2010, 11:05 AM

The game doesn't look at a guy and say "oh, he had 250 at-bats. I can give him 250 at-bats in this season too". It's not Strat-o-Matic. The game looks at players, says "this guy is worth starting and this guy is not" and goes with that. If anything, pro-rating the Rudy Pembertons of the world to 250 at-bats helps the computer to make those decisions because it takes Rudy's awesome 50 at-bats and blends them with 200 replacement level ABs.

I still heavily favor fictionals because it does sort of bother me to see a guy who got 100 ABs IRL get 600 in what's supposed to be a replay, but single-season replays aren't really the point of OOTP anyway.

pstrickert · 08-27-2010, 11:09 AM

I think it's the combination of pro-rating to 250 ABs and enabling 3-year recalc that causes the problem. The "rookie" often is rated much higher than he otherwise would be. Like I said, it might not bother some people. Thought it ought to be mentioned, though.

highandoutside · 08-27-2010, 12:25 PM

Biggio - what does OBD stand for? I'm having a hard time understanding what wasn't working with the neut. stats.

Pstrickert - Will 1-yr recalc get me closer to RL playing times? I want some variation in my replays, but I would like to avoid the issue of a rookie getting 500 at bats in the replay when he only had a 100 in RL.

pstrickert · 08-27-2010, 01:22 PM

The standard setup for "historical replay mode" in OOTP11 is 1-year recalc using real stats. That seems to work fine for me. If you use the advanced setup, you can change these settings to something else. It all depends on what you're hoping to achieve.

Spritze · 08-27-2010, 01:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pstrickert

The problem with pro-rating to 250 ABs is that, often, rookies will play extensively a year too soon. IRL, they probably were not quite ready. So, they got a few ABs late in the year (or earlier in the year, but didn't perform too well). If they're pro-rated to 250 ABs in that first season, the AI often uses them extensively (esp. if 3-year recalc is enabled). That means, of course, that someone else (who received those ABs IRL) loses them. It also means that, in the end, the rookie who entered a year too soon will have an extra year's worth of stats for his career. It might not bother some people; but it bothers me.

Perhaps a player age adjustment should also be made to the Rookie pro-rated stats as well. That would tend to keep 18 year olds out but allow 28 year olds a chance.

akw4572 · 08-27-2010, 09:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rich12545

This is very good. The only thing missing so far as I can tell is realistic financials during the reserve clause era.

How about real life transactions and managers?

OWill40315 · 08-28-2010, 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rich12545

This is very good. The only thing missing so far as I can tell is realistic financials during the reserve clause era.

My frustration with the current game is that when playing historical games with minor leagues, the AI does not effectively build up a cadre of minor leaguers, where as I do for the team I am controlling. After a few seasons, this seems to put me at a competitive advantage. I generally play with one of the homebrew databases like Spritze's that bring players into the game at their professional debuts/age 18, so their are lots of minor league candidates.

clamel · 08-29-2010, 12:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garlon

What makes OOTP Historical Simulations so great?

B. Players Retire According to History

In OOTP you have the option to have players retire from the league when they did in real life. You can disable this feature, but the simulation becomes much more realistic when you enable it.

.

This is IMHO a twoegged sword. The date issued in the Lahmanns file isn´t the retirement date, but the last date the player played in the Majors.
This is a problem IMHO together with the handling of minor league teams.
I agree with that the AI doesn´t handle the minor league teams very good. I know it´s not easy to put the correct retirement date into the file without BIG editing, but to get it more realistic that is an issue needed to look in to.
In future editions more emphasis most be put on this retirement.
OK many says play without "historical retirement", but then Nolan Ryan, Charlie Hough, Jaime Moyer, Rick Reuschel and several others retire much too early.
Perhaps the "historical retirement date" will be issued as the earliest year a player might retire, but he might go on which will happen when you have Cup-of-Coffee players having just his 22nd year as a ML year. It will most certain stop his very very early retirement.

Garlon · 08-29-2010, 05:49 PM

clamel - The retirement date in lahman is not used. Players retire after the last season they played IRL. Using the actual last game played date would cause all kinds of terrible issues. Imagine having having Ted Williams on your playoff contending team in 1960 only to have him retire the day before the playoffs begin...that'd be ridiculous and unrealistic. This is why no players in OOTP are retired until after the playoffs are finished.

If you make the retirement date the earliest posible date as you mentioned you will have a league flooded with players who don't belong there. That would have significant consequences on statistical output of the individual players in the league. This would in a way be very detrimental to the simulation.

OOTP historicals only use players who actually made it to the major leagues. There is really no reason you need to manage a minor league system in historicals. All players you draft are major leaguers, and with 3-yr recalc you are not developing them in the minor leagues either like you would be in fictionals. So you are just using the minor leagues as a holding pen for your extra players. I suggest using the reserve roster for this purpose rather than a minor league team when playing historicals.

08-21-2010, 08:51 AM	#1
Garlon Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 3,753	The Strengths of OOTP Historical Simulations What makes OOTP Historical Simulations so great? I have been working with Lead Developer Markus Heinsohn on improving OOTP’s historical simulation since OOTP 7. Over the years we have continued to add new features and model every aspect of baseball as accurately as statistical probability will allow. I’d like to point out that Spritze has made an enormous contribution to the process by assisting us with programming the neutralized stat database – we could not have done it without his help. Here’s a run-down of the various elements that OOTP has that provides an accurate historical simulation of all time periods in history. A. Accurate League/Player Totals, Rates, and Matchup Outcomes Each season throughout history has its own league batting average, HR rate, strikeout rate, double play rate, etc. As you play from one season to the next OOTP accurately models these variations to accuracies sometimes within hundredths of a percent! So here are the elements we model based on real yearly historical data 1871-present: 1. Batting Average 2. Doubles rates 3. Triples rates 4. Homerun rates 5. Base on Balls rates 6. Hit By Pitch rates 7. Strikeout rates 8. BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) 9. Starting Pitcher Inning Pitched Outs (IPouts) per Game Started 10. Starting Pitcher Complete Game rates 11. Groundball Out Percentage 12. Wild Pitch rates 13. Balk rates 14. Passed Ball rates 15. Sac Fly rates 16. Sac Bunt rates 17. Stolen Base Attempt rates 18. Stolen Base Success rates 19. Ground Ball Double Play rates 20. Line-Drive Double Play rates 21. Outfielder Assist rates 22. Fielding Percentage rates for each position each year in history So when you simulate each season with OOTP you will have extremely accurate rates in each of these categories. In the end, aspects like ERA and Runs per Game rates also turn out like they should. OOTP’s play outcomes and pitcher/batter matchup results are based on DIPS (Defensive Independent Pitching Statistics) and the Log5 method. No play outcomes or events are “canned” or forced in OOTP to make player and league stats turn out accurate. The only thing at work in OOTP is pure statistical probability which makes this game a true simulation. B. Players Retire According to History In OOTP you have the option to have players retire from the league when they did in real life. You can disable this feature, but the simulation becomes much more realistic when you enable it. C. Base Player Ratings and abilities on Neutralized Stats or Real Life Stats The Real Life Stats option is pretty much self explanatory. However, I think there may be a great deal of confusion about our Neutralized Stats database. The Neutralized Stats option provides the most realistic outcomes and ratings for players since these stats are park- and run- neutralized. So players like Willie Davis (1960-1979) who played much of his career for the Dodgers in the toughest hitter’s ballpark in the league are not at a disadvantage in the simulation. Neutralizing his stats allow such hitters to perform to their ability had they been in a different hitter’s environment. If you want more information on how this neutralization process woks check out the section on Willie Davis in The New Bill James Historical Abstract pgs 740-743. The same neutralization process can be explored on baseball-reference.com also. So since the neutralization process is also run-neutralized (750-run per year environment) will players overperform? No, absolutely not. Remember, we model the league environment from season to season. So even though the player stats are neutralized to a 750-run environment, they will not necessarily be playing in a 750-run environment when you simulate. In the end, the players perform exactly as they should over the course of their career. With the Neutralized Stats no hitters in OOTP will have boosted abilities because they racked up their real life stats in great hitter’s parks, nor will any pitchers have increased abilities because they played in great pitcher’s parks. Likewise, no hitters or pitchers will end up under-rated because they played in poor hitter’s or poor pitcher’s parks respectively. In addition to the Hitter and Pitcher Stats being neutralized in OOTP, we also went to the extra extent of Neutralizing all of the historical defensive stats as well. Defenders on teams with high strikeout pitching staffs do not get as many opportunities in the field to make outs and that distorts their raw real-life Put Out and Assist totals and therefore their Range Factors. Our neutralized stats take into account pitching staff strikeout rates, excess left-handed or right-handed pitching, team defensive efficiency, groundball rates, team expected double plays and other variables that would otherwise not allow for direct comparison of defenders based on their real-life stats. Now we can do this. We even went to the extent o determining things like Unassisted Put Outs by 1Bmen so that we can accurately rate them too. So now you are saying “sure even if you can neutralize their defensive stats you still don’t know how many defensive innings each player in history had because the real life data only goes back about 50 years and therefore you still can’t know their true Range Factor”. Well guess what, we actually do have player defensive inning outs going all the way back to 1871 in our database. For more information check out the section titled Estimated Defensive Innings in Bill James Win Shares pgs 155-160. We even went the extra step of determining Outfielder Innings played each season at each of the 3 outfield positions for each player, not just their total outfield defensive innings. So if you ever wondered “how good would player X be if he didn’t play half of his games at Coors Field?” now you can find out in the simulation with our neutralized stats. In addition to this we also filled in the gaps in player career when In real life they did not play because they were in the minor leagues or because they were injured. In situations in which a player only had a handful of AB’s in a season we pro-rated that season of his neutralized stats up to 250 AB basing the missing AB’s on his career averages. This eliminates problems with trying to accurately rate players if they only had a small sample size of AB in a season D. Multi-Year Recalculation Ratings Base and Base Pitcher Stamina Options In OOTP you have the option to base player ratings and abilities solely on their historical stats of a season in question (1-yr recalc), or you can base their ratings on spans of 3 or 5 seasons (3-yr or 5-yr recalc). I prefer 3-yr recalc myself. By using 3-yr recalc player ratings are based on their real life or neutralized stats of the season you are playing and also the season before and after that. The 3-yr base of ratings further eliminates the potential of rating players on a small sample size of AB or IP since. It also minimizes the impact of players in history who had fluke seasons. Of course in OOTP you have the option of 1-yr, 3-yr, or 5-yr recalc, whichever suits your tastes. For pitchers you also have the option to base their Stamina on multi-year spans or even their whole career. In real life there were great pitchers like Sandy Koufax who were used as relievers early in their career and then as Starters later in their career. I you use a multi-year recalc base for their Stamina rating then they will end up being used as relievers when they were relievers in real life and starters when they were starters in real life. If you choose to base their Stamina on their Career stats then a guy like Koufax could be used as a starting pitcher any year of his career since he was primarily a starting pitcher in his career, this way you r the Ai are not forced into using a pitcher the way his real life manager used him…likewise a pitcher who was primarily a reliever will then end up with a Stamina rating of a relief pitcher his entire career. Again, it’s up to you how you want to run your league. Using Multi-Year Recalc in tandem with Retire Players According to History and Neutralized Stats will provide the most realistic simulation with individual player ratings and performance following their real life career curves. E. AI Rookie Draft Logic If you enable the option for the AI to use pre-defined draft value in the rookie draft each season you will give yourself a real challenge. Don’t expect superstar players to slip to the bottom of the first round. This aspect AI essentially uses a combination of a player’s potential (career OPS or ERA) and his career length to rank all of the available players in the draft. So when you get to the last round of the rookie draft all you have left are a bunch of guys who only had a cup of coffee in the big leagues. Whereas in the first round all of your hall of famers and all-star caliber players will get chosen. F. Historical Ballpark Data OOTP has park factors and dimensions for each park each year going back to 1901. Of course you have the option to play with all parks set to neutral park factors if you’d prefer. G. Tons and Tons of options to customize your league. You can start in any season you want going all the way back to 1871. Decide how many teams you want in your league. Want to play with 20 teams in 1925 instead of 16? Go for it. Just use OOTP’s options to expand the league or add new teams and even divisions in your leagues. You can change the names of the franchises in your leagues and in which cities they play. Decide for each sub-league if you want to use a DH or not. Choose the typical rotation size and rotation mode for your league. Decide on the playoff format for series length and how many teams make the playoffs in each league. And many more options. If you can think of something you want to customize you can probably do it in OOTP historical simulations. If I can clarify anything else about historical simulations in OOTP for anyone, let me know. I can continue to add to this original post or reply within the thread.

08-21-2010, 10:47 AM	#2
dickysty Major Leagues Join Date: Dec 2001 Posts: 348 Blog Entries: 21	Garlon, This is great information! F. Historical Ballpark Data OOTP has park factors and dimensions for each park each year going back to 1901. Of course you have the option to play with all parks set to neutral park factors if you’d prefer. Can you tell me where this option is in the game? I can't seem to locate it. __________________ NABA - Baltimore Blue Claw's Dynasty

08-21-2010, 01:12 PM	#3
RchW Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: The big smoke Posts: 15,628	I agree. A nice primer. Thanks Garlon for the time you put into the game. __________________ Cheers RichW If you’re looking for a good cause to donate money to please consider a Donation to Parkinson’s Canada. It may help me have a better future and if not me, someone else. Thanks. “Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition …There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.” Frank Wilhoit

08-21-2010, 09:58 PM	#5
skunkle333 All Star Reserve Join Date: May 2006 Location: St. Louis metro area...IL side. Posts: 643	Garlon... I really appreciated your detailed post. I really got into V11 when it came out. I thought for awhile that it even challenged my great addiction to DMB. The games I played with V11 were very realistic...the script was very good and all I play is historical games. For several weeks I even worked through much of the complexity of the game in setups etc. Printed out a good deal of the manual. At least there was a good deal that was complex to my old mind but I didn't mind it and often found the extended reading and study was fun. The fellas on the forums were very helpful and patient with my problems. I still sometimes play the superb 1959 quickstart that PStrickert created. I'm a 59 White Sox fanatic. But alas my play with OOTP is very seldom now. I might get to play out a full DMB pitch by pitch game (which is the only way I play...95% of the time) maybe 2-3 times a month. By far most of my play is for just 2-5 innings or so with my life schedule. But pitch by pitch is great baseball and it's just like reading another chapter in a solid baseball game so I don't mind playing in limited time spans. Added to this limited play is that I might do it 3-6 times a day when I can grab the 15 minutes or so. But that is where the final kicker came taking me away from OOTP regular enjoyment. The game has no ability to save a game in progress so I am sunk. When I do get those times when I play a 1959 game I still have to sim some innings to get the game in and it ruins the whole experience. In my old age I can't play the shortcut...readers digest...play by play or simming game anymore. Either pitch by pitch or forget it. That's just me. The other thing that takes a good bit of enjoyment away is the fact that I can't see the players actual real life stats listed on the widget screen during the game. For me this is just unreal. All those stats...many of them appreciated but I can't see the stats for the historical year I'm actually playing. For me it's just a no brainer that I can't understand. I should just skip posting this but I'll go ahead. I haven't posted for some time and still frequent the forum because the game has so much that is excellent. There is nothing like the sounds...player pics etc in a good OOTP game. Pitch by pitch holds all the drama of a real life game. Your detailed report just adds to my appreciation of the improvements to the game over V9 and 10. The forum is loaded with kind fellas that are really helpful with the game. They sure helped me alot in the past several years and a good deal this year when I was getting into V11. Just felt like sharing my personal frustrations with the game while trying to compliment it in many ways. My hope is that somewhere along the line we will be able to save a game in progress and see the actual real life stats for the season we are playing right on the actual game play screen. Thanks for the further details on the historical work all you fellas have made. I appreciate them very much. I just wish... __________________ Today is the first day of the rest of your life. Adjust accordingly. Don't forget to try PStrickert's great 1959 World Series Quickstart Mod for V12 & V11 !! At Padresfan's site. Last edited by skunkle333; 08-21-2010 at 10:03 PM.

08-21-2010, 03:37 PM	#4
Garlon Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 3,753	dickysty - The file with the data can be found: My Documents\Out of the Park Developments\OOTP Baseball 11\database The file in that folder is called era_ballparks. It is a .txt file, comma de-limited. You can open it with Excel to view the data if you want. However, in your league you have the option to "Automatically Adjust League Strategy". Game Setup>League Setup>Historical>Historical Progressing Optons

08-25-2010, 09:10 PM	#6
Biggio509 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 2,027	How do you compensate for guys with short sample sizes being over rated. I have found using real stats that some guys who got a coffee cup at the major league level sometimes get better stats than starters because they have good stats for the few AB or IP. I usually turn on weaken pitchers and batters with fewer than X AB or IP. Maybe it is that my AB and IP setting are two low and some coffee cup type guys have just enogh AB or IP to keep the game from weakening them?

08-25-2010, 09:49 PM	#7
Garlon Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 3,753	Biggio509 - If you use neutralized stats all position players are pro-rated to 250 Ab each season. For players who had fewer than 250 AB in their career we used a replacement level based on their position to pro-rate the missing A's to get them to 250 AB each season. For pithers we did the same if they had fewer than 40 IP career.

08-26-2010, 09:24 PM	#9
Cornelius McGillicuddy Banned Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: Playing the inside game Posts: 763 Infractions: 0/1 (4)	This is very good. The only thing missing so far as I can tell is realistic financials during the reserve clause era.

08-27-2010, 10:57 AM	#11
pstrickert Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 15,738	The problem with pro-rating to 250 ABs is that, often, rookies will play extensively a year too soon. IRL, they probably were not quite ready. So, they got a few ABs late in the year (or earlier in the year, but didn't perform too well). If they're pro-rated to 250 ABs in that first season, the AI often uses them extensively (esp. if 3-year recalc is enabled). That means, of course, that someone else (who received those ABs IRL) loses them. It also means that, in the end, the rookie who entered a year too soon will have an extra year's worth of stats for his career. It might not bother some people; but it bothers me.

08-27-2010, 11:09 AM	#13
pstrickert Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 15,738	I think it's the combination of pro-rating to 250 ABs and enabling 3-year recalc that causes the problem. The "rookie" often is rated much higher than he otherwise would be. Like I said, it might not bother some people. Thought it ought to be mentioned, though.

08-27-2010, 12:25 PM	#14
highandoutside All Star Reserve Join Date: Mar 2004 Posts: 631	Biggio - what does OBD stand for? I'm having a hard time understanding what wasn't working with the neut. stats. Pstrickert - Will 1-yr recalc get me closer to RL playing times? I want some variation in my replays, but I would like to avoid the issue of a rookie getting 500 at bats in the replay when he only had a 100 in RL.

08-27-2010, 01:22 PM	#15
pstrickert Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 15,738	The standard setup for "historical replay mode" in OOTP11 is 1-year recalc using real stats. That seems to work fine for me. If you use the advanced setup, you can change these settings to something else. It all depends on what you're hoping to achieve.

08-29-2010, 05:49 PM	#20
Garlon Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 3,753	clamel - The retirement date in lahman is not used. Players retire after the last season they played IRL. Using the actual last game played date would cause all kinds of terrible issues. Imagine having having Ted Williams on your playoff contending team in 1960 only to have him retire the day before the playoffs begin...that'd be ridiculous and unrealistic. This is why no players in OOTP are retired until after the playoffs are finished. If you make the retirement date the earliest posible date as you mentioned you will have a league flooded with players who don't belong there. That would have significant consequences on statistical output of the individual players in the league. This would in a way be very detrimental to the simulation. OOTP historicals only use players who actually made it to the major leagues. There is really no reason you need to manage a minor league system in historicals. All players you draft are major leaguers, and with 3-yr recalc you are not developing them in the minor leagues either like you would be in fictionals. So you are just using the minor leagues as a holding pen for your extra players. I suggest using the reserve roster for this purpose rather than a minor league team when playing historicals.