How to react to an insanely low BABIP ?

LuScorpio68 · 02-02-2023, 07:48 AM

Hey guys,

In the past, I've faced guys who had a season with a low BABIP, but never this bad. In my Mariners save in the 2025 season, I had a 32 year old shortstop whose BABIP was at .196 over 444 plate appearances which led to a triple slash of .195/.250/.407 slugging for a 74 OPS+ but still 45 XBH (25 doubles, 20 home runs). He has had declining contact rating (40 vs righties, 45 vs left) and his a flyball and pull hitter, but still with decent power numbers and defense. He had a low babip already the year before (.220) but it was due to a long cold spell in the second half of the season.

I don't really know how to react because I feel like he can't have a BABIP this low again but he probably won't be a 115 OPS+ guy like he was in the first couple of years. He had two years left on his contract (around 10 millions) and I'm hesitant to trade him because he is very popular locally (former WS MVP) and he could bounce back still. What should I do ?

I tried to attach a screenshot of his stats for help.

Rain King · 02-02-2023, 09:05 AM

BABIP for hitters is skill-based (not mostly luck like pitchers).

So, this player appears to be in real decline especially with 2 consecutive years of poor BABIP. I don't see them as a likely bounce-back candidate at this point.

mytreds · 02-03-2023, 02:17 PM

1)Stats like BABIP requires hundreds, if not thousands of ABs to give us a proper gauge of the stat

2)Players don’t stay in the same conditions required to make thousands of ABs possible over the course of their career

Thus don’t worry about BABIP too much, imo. Use harder stats for better judgements. Your player’s ratings are poor and getting worse. It happens, and if OOTP does one thing we’ll, it’s simulating hot/cold seasons and rapidly declining players.

LuScorpio68 · 02-03-2023, 06:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mytreds

1)Stats like BABIP requires hundreds, if not thousands of ABs to give us a proper gauge of the stat

2)Players don’t stay in the same conditions required to make thousands of ABs possible over the course of their career

Thus don’t worry about BABIP too much, imo. Use harder stats for better judgements. Your player’s ratings are poor and getting worse. It happens, and if OOTP does one thing we’ll, it’s simulating hot/cold seasons and rapidly declining players.

You ended up being right. As I cruised to win the 2026 World Series (thankfully, because my contending window is nearing its end), Nakashima rapidly ended up out of the middle infield rotation, with ended up as Noelvi Marte at 2B and a rookie SS vs righties and Justin Foscue at 2B and Noelvi Marte at SS vs lefties. Surprisingly, he didn't decline the demotion to AAA, where he continued to struggle. Thankfully, he just has one year left on his deal as he has a team option after the next season so he'll likely get cut or traded not to take playing time away from my young prospects.

02-02-2023, 07:48 AM	#1
LuScorpio68 Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Jan 2021 Posts: 20	How to react to an insanely low BABIP ? Hey guys, In the past, I've faced guys who had a season with a low BABIP, but never this bad. In my Mariners save in the 2025 season, I had a 32 year old shortstop whose BABIP was at .196 over 444 plate appearances which led to a triple slash of .195/.250/.407 slugging for a 74 OPS+ but still 45 XBH (25 doubles, 20 home runs). He has had declining contact rating (40 vs righties, 45 vs left) and his a flyball and pull hitter, but still with decent power numbers and defense. He had a low babip already the year before (.220) but it was due to a long cold spell in the second half of the season. I don't really know how to react because I feel like he can't have a BABIP this low again but he probably won't be a 115 OPS+ guy like he was in the first couple of years. He had two years left on his contract (around 10 millions) and I'm hesitant to trade him because he is very popular locally (former WS MVP) and he could bounce back still. What should I do ? I tried to attach a screenshot of his stats for help. Attached Images

02-03-2023, 02:17 PM	#3
mytreds All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2019 Posts: 862	1)Stats like BABIP requires hundreds, if not thousands of ABs to give us a proper gauge of the stat 2)Players don’t stay in the same conditions required to make thousands of ABs possible over the course of their career Thus don’t worry about BABIP too much, imo. Use harder stats for better judgements. Your player’s ratings are poor and getting worse. It happens, and if OOTP does one thing we’ll, it’s simulating hot/cold seasons and rapidly declining players. __________________ “Baseball isn’t statistics; it’s Joe DiMaggio rounding second.” “Once, centuries ago, it was the beloved national pastime of the Americas, Wesley. Abandoned by a society that prized fast food and faster games. Lost to impatience.” “ The term ‘WAR’ should be replaced by ‘WAG’. WAR isn’t an actual measurement; it’s just a wild-ass guess” -Bill James RIP National League 1876-2022 I make custom ballparks.

02-02-2023, 09:05 AM	#2
Rain King Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 2,121	BABIP for hitters is skill-based (not mostly luck like pitchers). So, this player appears to be in real decline especially with 2 consecutive years of poor BABIP. I don't see them as a likely bounce-back candidate at this point.