150-foot fences at Citi Field: the sims, a reanimated Bill Veeck, and the blog post

BradC · 10-28-2014, 12:01 PM

Hoping this blog post might get some viral activity, like the league with a team full of 25 Adam Dunns. Please read and share.

Thanks!

What If: 150 Feet to the Outfield Fence and the Mets? Playoff Dream

Jose Fernandez · 10-28-2014, 05:29 PM

This is very similar to what actually happened in 1884.

Lake Front Park II, home of Spalding's White Stockings (now Cubs) had the shortest ever park dimensions: LF 180 ft, CF 300 ft, RF 196 ft. Originally, balls hit over the fence were ruled as doubles, but in 1884 they counted them as HRs, helping the team score 155 more runs and put up gaudy power numbers for the era. Ned Williamson hit 27 HRs, which was the longtime record until Babe Ruth broke it. Cap Anson had 21, and anyone looking at his stats today who doesn't know about this must think it's a mistake that he wasn't the HR leader that year. It took the 1927 Yankees to beat the team's HR total. If you're thinking it should be higher with those dimensions, keep in mind they only played 112 games, 56 at home, and only 2% of all hits were HRs in those days (10% of hits are HRs today). If you extrapolate the short season to today's 162 game season, Williamson gets 39 HRs, which is one shy of 2014's HR leader but would still secure the NL title. Williamson slugged .384 over his career and had 37 HRs in his other 1094 games. He also had 49 doubles to lead the previous year, and who knows how many of those crossed that fence. All those HRs had to come at the expense of pitchers, and teams only really used one pitcher back then, with a backup or two, so the impact on individual pitchers was enormous. One of those pitchers was Pud Galvin. This was the year Pud Galvin was worth 20 rWAR, and despite getting 90 more Ks than in 1883 his FIP was actually worse because he gave up 14 extra HRs. That's more than the last three seasons worth of HRs, a combined 1575 IP. This is why it's so important to adjust for contextual factors such as the ballpark. After 1884, the league limited the fences to 210 feet, but the White Stockings were forced to move out anyway. Despite it all, their WPCT dropped from .602 in 1883 to .554 in 1884. In 1885 they went 87-25 (.777) and in 1886 went 90-34 (.726, third best out of 120+ game seasons).

The game was very different and constantly changing back then.
(The team's pitcher, Larry Corcoran, was a 5'3" 127 lb switch-pitcher who pitched from this box. He went 536 innings when he was 20, was the first pitcher to be part of a rotation, and was the first pitcher to develop signals for pitches with his catcher, and was the first pitcher to throw three no-hitters until Koufax threw four.)
But the fundamentals of baseball remain and so a lot of what happened back then still applies today and can be seen with the Rockies and Coors field and in your simulation. The field helps your offense while at home, but hurts them when they go on the road and have trouble adjusting. Away teams get the same offensive advantage so the pitching suffers at home. It takes a phenomenal pitcher like Larry Corcoran was to win games at home, even with an lineup built for the park. If you build a team catered to the ballpark, they becomes less suited for normal ballparks on the road. The 1884 White Stockings were 39-17 home, 23-33 away. The 2014 Rockies were 45-36 home, 21-60 away. Your Mets were 51-30 home, 36-45 away. I'd like to see if they keep that split up going on.

Also, just imagine that 17 inning WC game actually happening the day after this year's ALWC game.

10-28-2014, 12:01 PM	#1
BradC All Star Starter Join Date: Jan 2011 Location: northern CA Posts: 1,870 Blog Entries: 1	150-foot fences at Citi Field: the sims, a reanimated Bill Veeck, and the blog post Hoping this blog post might get some viral activity, like the league with a team full of 25 Adam Dunns. Please read and share. Thanks! What If: 150 Feet to the Outfield Fence and the Mets? Playoff Dream

10-28-2014, 05:29 PM	#2
Jose Fernandez Bat Boy Join Date: Oct 2014 Posts: 4	This is very similar to what actually happened in 1884. Lake Front Park II, home of Spalding's White Stockings (now Cubs) had the shortest ever park dimensions: LF 180 ft, CF 300 ft, RF 196 ft. Originally, balls hit over the fence were ruled as doubles, but in 1884 they counted them as HRs, helping the team score 155 more runs and put up gaudy power numbers for the era. Ned Williamson hit 27 HRs, which was the longtime record until Babe Ruth broke it. Cap Anson had 21, and anyone looking at his stats today who doesn't know about this must think it's a mistake that he wasn't the HR leader that year. It took the 1927 Yankees to beat the team's HR total. If you're thinking it should be higher with those dimensions, keep in mind they only played 112 games, 56 at home, and only 2% of all hits were HRs in those days (10% of hits are HRs today). If you extrapolate the short season to today's 162 game season, Williamson gets 39 HRs, which is one shy of 2014's HR leader but would still secure the NL title. Williamson slugged .384 over his career and had 37 HRs in his other 1094 games. He also had 49 doubles to lead the previous year, and who knows how many of those crossed that fence. All those HRs had to come at the expense of pitchers, and teams only really used one pitcher back then, with a backup or two, so the impact on individual pitchers was enormous. One of those pitchers was Pud Galvin. This was the year Pud Galvin was worth 20 rWAR, and despite getting 90 more Ks than in 1883 his FIP was actually worse because he gave up 14 extra HRs. That's more than the last three seasons worth of HRs, a combined 1575 IP. This is why it's so important to adjust for contextual factors such as the ballpark. After 1884, the league limited the fences to 210 feet, but the White Stockings were forced to move out anyway. Despite it all, their WPCT dropped from .602 in 1883 to .554 in 1884. In 1885 they went 87-25 (.777) and in 1886 went 90-34 (.726, third best out of 120+ game seasons). The game was very different and constantly changing back then. (The team's pitcher, Larry Corcoran, was a 5'3" 127 lb switch-pitcher who pitched from this box. He went 536 innings when he was 20, was the first pitcher to be part of a rotation, and was the first pitcher to develop signals for pitches with his catcher, and was the first pitcher to throw three no-hitters until Koufax threw four.) But the fundamentals of baseball remain and so a lot of what happened back then still applies today and can be seen with the Rockies and Coors field and in your simulation. The field helps your offense while at home, but hurts them when they go on the road and have trouble adjusting. Away teams get the same offensive advantage so the pitching suffers at home. It takes a phenomenal pitcher like Larry Corcoran was to win games at home, even with an lineup built for the park. If you build a team catered to the ballpark, they becomes less suited for normal ballparks on the road. The 1884 White Stockings were 39-17 home, 23-33 away. The 2014 Rockies were 45-36 home, 21-60 away. Your Mets were 51-30 home, 36-45 away. I'd like to see if they keep that split up going on. Also, just imagine that 17 inning WC game actually happening the day after this year's ALWC game.