Japanese Statistical Conversions

DRaysGoRocco · 06-05-2006, 12:48 PM

I did a little statistical research on players who have come over from the Nippon League and how they did in Major League Baseball compared to their stats back in Japan. I took 5 players, Ichiro, Hideki Matsui, Kaz Matsui, So Taguchi, and Tadahito Iguchi. I placed the most weight on Ichiro and Hideki matsui because of sample sizes and their success.

I studied 5 categories BA, HR, SLG, OBP, and K's. I based them on 550 AB's. I won't go into too much detail about the exact calculations, but be sure that I considered sample sizes, prime ages (approx 28-32 yrs old), present success over past success, etc.

What I came up with is this:
BA - 92.4%
SLG - 80.1%
HR - 50.2%
OBP - 82.9%
K - 95.0%

for example, a player will hit 50.2% of his Japan HR total per 550 AB's in MLB. Both Ichiro and H. Matsui have hit 43-44% HR's, but the totals by Iguchi (59%) and S. Taguchi (113%) bumped my estimate to 50.2%. By this HR example, I hope you can get an idea on how I got the other statistical converstions

Now, I know this isn't an exact science and a lot of it is subjective. But the best way to convert the statistics/ratings is to base it off of past events and the best way to do such is by looking at how these players did. I also understand that if any Nippon Lg player were to make the jump, their statistics would not convert exactly like this, but I would bet it would be somewhat similar with a large enough sample size.

What I would like to do is make a Nippon League roster set that can be exported/imported into any Universe so that OOTP'ers can have that added realism of having the second largest Pro Baseball League in their Universe

sean-patin · 06-05-2006, 12:58 PM

nice work... I will probably make my ML Equivalants somewhat similar to these numbers.

ricobrown · 06-05-2006, 01:06 PM

I would love to add this to my universe. I don't know anything about foriegn leagues so I'll have to depend on others.

DRaysGoRocco · 06-05-2006, 01:47 PM

If the entire league were to be converted using this, then the Nippn MLE's would have to be tweaked to create accurate Nippon statistics with MLB ratings. It's very possible to do, just a lot of testing is needed.

I have yet to do study pitchers conversions, which should be a bit tougher. But again, it's possible. We have comparable players such as Nomo, Ishii, Irabu, Sasaki, Hasegawa, and even Otsuka and Takatsu to look at.

There are 12 teams with 25 man rosters, which would come out to 300 players in the league. I wouldn't mess with the AAA teams, mainly because of lack of info, but also because to me, it wouldn't make a difference if they are realistic b/c I've never heard of them to begin with.

A slight problem occurs with Fielding ratings. I have a little bit of info, PO, Assists, E's, etc. but we all know that those stats don't tell us much by themselves. All I know is that overall, Japanese players are better at fielding compared to the rest of the world, mainly because of fundamentals. I also have golden glove info, that will help in making sure the best with the glove are recognized. But as for who's bad, average or above average, that will probably be random.

Wud · 06-05-2006, 05:20 PM

Tyoshi Sinjo, if you need another sample.

blackrussian · 06-05-2006, 05:48 PM

you may want to look at this as well:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=1330

DRaysGoRocco · 06-05-2006, 06:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackrussian

you may want to look at this as well:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=1330

thanks for the link. It's a little outdated though, the players I've researched are mostly 2001-present before most Japanese position players started coming over.

JPBBDB · 06-09-2006, 11:31 AM

DRaysGoRocco,

To reduce sample size issues have you considered comparing players going both ways between the *** and the MLB.

I've done this for players, using a common plate apperances method, going from the MLB to *** from 1962 to 2004.
<code>
Years CPA H DB TP HR SH SF SO BB HBP SB CS
62-75 7926 1.14 1.33 1.14 2.35 1.35 0.45 0.43 0.91 0.75 1.83 0.08
76-88 13349 1.10 1.02 0.72 2.58 1.48 0.39 0.14 1.11 0.98 2.04 0.11
89-97 15674 1.07 1.00 0.75 1.79 1.21 0.47 0.57 1.15 1.17 1.37 0.58
98-04 6746 1.05 0.94 0.95 1.86 1.27 0.51 1.17 1.05 1.03 1.20 1.12
</code>
Also, the average fielding percentage in the *** (at the team level) is around 0.01 higher than that of the MLB.

If you need help with any stats, private message me.

Hope this helps.
Michael Eng

06-05-2006, 12:48 PM	#1
DRaysGoRocco Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Offutt AFB, NE Posts: 237	Japanese Statistical Conversions I did a little statistical research on players who have come over from the Nippon League and how they did in Major League Baseball compared to their stats back in Japan. I took 5 players, Ichiro, Hideki Matsui, Kaz Matsui, So Taguchi, and Tadahito Iguchi. I placed the most weight on Ichiro and Hideki matsui because of sample sizes and their success. I studied 5 categories BA, HR, SLG, OBP, and K's. I based them on 550 AB's. I won't go into too much detail about the exact calculations, but be sure that I considered sample sizes, prime ages (approx 28-32 yrs old), present success over past success, etc. What I came up with is this: BA - 92.4% SLG - 80.1% HR - 50.2% OBP - 82.9% K - 95.0% for example, a player will hit 50.2% of his Japan HR total per 550 AB's in MLB. Both Ichiro and H. Matsui have hit 43-44% HR's, but the totals by Iguchi (59%) and S. Taguchi (113%) bumped my estimate to 50.2%. By this HR example, I hope you can get an idea on how I got the other statistical converstions Now, I know this isn't an exact science and a lot of it is subjective. But the best way to convert the statistics/ratings is to base it off of past events and the best way to do such is by looking at how these players did. I also understand that if any Nippon Lg player were to make the jump, their statistics would not convert exactly like this, but I would bet it would be somewhat similar with a large enough sample size. What I would like to do is make a Nippon League roster set that can be exported/imported into any Universe so that OOTP'ers can have that added realism of having the second largest Pro Baseball League in their Universe __________________ "It is the nature of being the general manager of a baseball team that you have to remain on familiar terms with people you are continually trying to screw." - Michael Lewis, Moneyball Last edited by DRaysGoRocco; 06-05-2006 at 12:49 PM.

06-05-2006, 01:06 PM	#3
ricobrown Minors (Double A) Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 131	sounds great I would love to add this to my universe. I don't know anything about foriegn leagues so I'll have to depend on others.

06-05-2006, 01:47 PM	#4
DRaysGoRocco Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Offutt AFB, NE Posts: 237	If the entire league were to be converted using this, then the Nippn MLE's would have to be tweaked to create accurate Nippon statistics with MLB ratings. It's very possible to do, just a lot of testing is needed. I have yet to do study pitchers conversions, which should be a bit tougher. But again, it's possible. We have comparable players such as Nomo, Ishii, Irabu, Sasaki, Hasegawa, and even Otsuka and Takatsu to look at. There are 12 teams with 25 man rosters, which would come out to 300 players in the league. I wouldn't mess with the AAA teams, mainly because of lack of info, but also because to me, it wouldn't make a difference if they are realistic b/c I've never heard of them to begin with. A slight problem occurs with Fielding ratings. I have a little bit of info, PO, Assists, E's, etc. but we all know that those stats don't tell us much by themselves. All I know is that overall, Japanese players are better at fielding compared to the rest of the world, mainly because of fundamentals. I also have golden glove info, that will help in making sure the best with the glove are recognized. But as for who's bad, average or above average, that will probably be random. __________________ "It is the nature of being the general manager of a baseball team that you have to remain on familiar terms with people you are continually trying to screw." - Michael Lewis, Moneyball Last edited by DRaysGoRocco; 06-05-2006 at 01:49 PM.

06-05-2006, 05:48 PM	#6
blackrussian All Star Reserve Join Date: Apr 2002 Posts: 954	you may want to look at this as well: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=1330 __________________ v'

06-09-2006, 11:31 AM	#8
JPBBDB Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 43	DRaysGoRocco, To reduce sample size issues have you considered comparing players going both ways between the * and the MLB. I've done this for players, using a common plate apperances method, going from the MLB to * from 1962 to 2004. <code> Years CPA H DB TP HR SH SF SO BB HBP SB CS 62-75 7926 1.14 1.33 1.14 2.35 1.35 0.45 0.43 0.91 0.75 1.83 0.08 76-88 13349 1.10 1.02 0.72 2.58 1.48 0.39 0.14 1.11 0.98 2.04 0.11 89-97 15674 1.07 1.00 0.75 1.79 1.21 0.47 0.57 1.15 1.17 1.37 0.58 98-04 6746 1.05 0.94 0.95 1.86 1.27 0.51 1.17 1.05 1.03 1.20 1.12 </code> Also, the average fielding percentage in the *** (at the team level) is around 0.01 higher than that of the MLB. If you need help with any stats, private message me. Hope this helps. Michael Eng __________________

06-05-2006, 12:58 PM	#2
sean-patin Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 205	nice work... I will probably make my ML Equivalants somewhat similar to these numbers.

06-05-2006, 05:20 PM	#5
Wud Bat Boy Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 18	Tyoshi Sinjo, if you need another sample.