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Old 04-01-2020, 02:27 AM   #1
greenOak
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Who you got for MVP? (Shades of 2012)

Both players played on the same team that won a league best 111 games while leading the league in runs scored. Player 1 hits fourth, Player 2 hits second. Any stat with an asterisk next to it means they lead the league.

Player 1
156 GP, .350*/.441/.738*, 200 wRC+*, 62HR*, 153RBI*, 122R, 0/0 SB, 9.5WAR. Slightly below average defense at 1B (-2.1 ZR)

Player 2
158 GP, .338/.454*/.597, 174wRC+, 42HR, 91RBI, 143R*, 24/25 SB, 11.3WAR*. Above average defense at shortstop (+6.1 ZR)

The vote ended up being unanimous (surprised me) but I won't say for who. Basically you have a triple crown winning bat-only first baseman vs a lesser but still elite hitting SS who also provides value as a runner and defender.

Last edited by greenOak; 04-01-2020 at 02:30 AM.
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Old 04-01-2020, 04:27 AM   #2
UltimateAverageGuy
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Player 1 easy
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Old 04-01-2020, 04:31 AM   #3
lukestephens2293
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Quote:
Originally Posted by greenOak View Post
Both players played on the same team that won a league best 111 games while leading the league in runs scored. Player 1 hits fourth, Player 2 hits second. Any stat with an asterisk next to it means they lead the league.

Player 1
156 GP, .350*/.441/.738*, 200 wRC+*, 62HR*, 153RBI*, 122R, 0/0 SB, 9.5WAR. Slightly below average defense at 1B (-2.1 ZR)

Player 2
158 GP, .338/.454*/.597, 174wRC+, 42HR, 91RBI, 143R*, 24/25 SB, 11.3WAR*. Above average defense at shortstop (+6.1 ZR)

The vote ended up being unanimous (surprised me) but I won't say for who. Basically you have a triple crown winning bat-only first baseman vs a lesser but still elite hitting SS who also provides value as a runner and defender.
I'm going to go with Player 2
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Old 04-01-2020, 04:50 AM   #4
UltimateAverageGuy
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MVP is an offensive award, you win a Triple Crown you're winning it
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Old 04-01-2020, 08:24 AM   #5
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If these were two real players, player one wins because the HRs and RBIs get all the attention and how do you not give it to the Triple Crown winner.

That said, I would value player two higher if I had to choose between the two who I sign long term because of the value he brings to generate runs scored and keep runs off the board defensively.
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Old 04-01-2020, 05:59 PM   #6
andyhdz
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Stud first baseman come and go but an elite SS who can field and hit? Wow. That's why his WAR is higher.

Last edited by andyhdz; 04-01-2020 at 06:01 PM.
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Old 04-01-2020, 06:11 PM   #7
CBeisbol
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With the given information, player 2, easily.

A two WAR difference is significant.




Quote:
Originally Posted by UltimateAverageGuy View Post
MVP is an offensive award
I mean, it's not
Quote:
Dear Voter:

There is no clear-cut definition of what Most Valuable means. It is up to the individual voter to decide who was the Most Valuable Player in each league to his team. The MVP need not come from a division winner or other playoff qualifier.

The rules of the voting remain the same as they were written on the first ballot in 1931:

1. Actual value of a player to his team, that is, strength of offense and defense.
*emphasis mine
bbwaa.com/voting-faq/
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Old 04-01-2020, 06:22 PM   #8
thklein
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Player 2. The WAR is 2 points higher for a reason.
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Old 04-02-2020, 12:50 AM   #9
Bunktown Ballers
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War

Quote:
Originally Posted by CBeisbol View Post
With the given information, player 2, easily.

A two WAR difference is significant.








I mean, it's not

*emphasis mine
bbwaa.com/voting-faq/

WAR is theoretical B.S. It's all based on theory....WHERE's THE BEEF? I ask
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Old 04-02-2020, 01:05 AM   #10
CBeisbol
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bunktown Ballers View Post
WAR is theoretical B.S. It's all based on theory....WHERE's THE BEEF? I ask
It's here

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/20...ird-order-wins


Quote:
The graph that you see here is the correlation between team wins and WAR wins.

...

As you can see, however, team wins and WAR wins are strongly correlated (R-squared value of 0.86). The line of best fit is y = 1.06 x - 4.61. So, if your team is projected to produce 100 “WAR wins” (47.628 + 52.372 WAR), they would be expected to win about 101 games. While the correlation does create some variance, the line of best fit demonstrates that the ratio of WAR to wins is pretty close to one-to-one, on average.
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Old 04-02-2020, 02:01 AM   #11
greenOak
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Yeah so player 1 won unanimously. I expected he would win since ootp much like real life shows a strong bias against swiss-army knife type players in voting (Cabrera over Trout, Howard over Utley). I’m partial to player 2 though for reasons already mentioned.
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Old 04-02-2020, 02:03 AM   #12
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WRC+ is everything. SS has more War because his position is harder it is miss leading .
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Old 04-02-2020, 02:13 AM   #13
greenOak
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmysthebestcop View Post
WRC+ is everything. SS has more War because his position is harder it is miss leading .
Well yeah because he’s more valuable playing a harder position. It’s easy to grab a 120wRC+ first baseman for near nothing, but you’ll have to pay through the roof for a 120 wRC+ shortstop.
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Old 04-02-2020, 02:42 AM   #14
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Originally Posted by greenOak View Post
Well yeah because he’s more valuable playing a harder position. It’s easy to grab a 120wRC+ first baseman for near nothing, but you’ll have to pay through the roof for a 120 wRC+ shortstop.
You are looking at it opposite. It is way harder to have that high of a WAR at 1b. He is by far the better player.

Look at Alonso last Year his WRC+ is like 145 but WAR is like a 4.8. And that was a monster 1b year.

Your 1b WRC+ is 200 that's 20pts higher than Trout who had a 8.6 WAR and your 1b had a 9.5 WAR.

Its staggering how a 1b was able to put up such a high war. It is a ungodly. It's 2x to 3x time more than a league leading 1b.

While leading SS can usually get around 8.x.
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Old 04-02-2020, 02:54 AM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmysthebestcop View Post
WRC+ is everything. SS has more War because his position is harder it is miss leading .
No
Defense exists

I'd tell you to go watch a game, but there are none



Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmysthebestcop View Post
You are looking at it opposite. It is way harder to have that high of a WAR at 1b. He is by far the better player.

Look at Alonso last Year his WRC+ is like 145 but WAR is like a 4.8. And that was a monster 1b year.

Your 1b WRC+ is 200 that's 20pts higher than Trout who had a 8.6 WAR and your 1b had a 9.5 WAR.

Its staggering how a 1b was able to put up such a high war. It is a ungodly. It's 2x to 3x time more than a league leading 1b.

While leading SS can usually get around 8.x.
You're, sort of, right. It's hard for first basemen to produce a lot of runs (thus WAR) because they don't provide much defensive value.

So, yeah this first baseman was great with the bat

But the SS was also great with the bat, and with the glove, and, it looks like given the info we have, on the bases. And the sum of this greatnesses was more than the first baseman's greatness with just the bat.
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Old 04-02-2020, 02:58 AM   #16
greenOak
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List of 1B who have hit 7+ fWAR since 2000:

Albert Pujols (x7)
Todd Helton (x3)
Jason Giambi (x2)
Lance Berkman
Carlos Delgado
Jim Thome
Joey Votto
Paul Goldschmidt
Chris Davis
Derrek Lee

List of SS who have hit 7+ fWAR since 2000:

Alex Rodriguez (x4)
Hanley Ramirez (x2)
Rich Aurilia
Nomar Garciaparra
Francisco Lindor
Marcus Semien
Alex Bregman

If it's so hard for first baseman to rack up WAR why have there been fewer shortstop to post such high WAR seasons? This is true throughout history as well. Going back to 1900 there have been 64 seasons of 7+ WAR from shortstops while there have been 81 from first baseman.

Think of this way. Assume all players are average defensively for their position. You can have a 120 wRC+ shortstop and a replacement level firstbaseman, or a 120wRC+ first baseman and a replacement level shortstop. You would have to be a fool to not choose the first option. In the first scenario you'll end up with two above average hitters, while in the second scenario you'll end up with an above average hitter and a dreadful hitter. Ergo, the 120 wRC+ shortstop is more valuable than the 120 wRC+ first baseman.

Last edited by greenOak; 04-02-2020 at 02:59 AM.
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Old 04-02-2020, 03:11 AM   #17
drrok
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Miss Leading sounds sexy.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmysthebestcop View Post
WRC+ is everything. SS has more War because his position is harder it is miss leading .
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Old 04-02-2020, 03:40 AM   #18
CBeisbol
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmysthebestcop View Post
You are looking at it opposite. It is way harder to have that high of a WAR at 1b. He is by far the better player.

Look at Alonso last Year his WRC+ is like 145 but WAR is like a 4.8. And that was a monster 1b year.

Your 1b WRC+ is 200 that's 20pts higher than Trout who had a 8.6 WAR and your 1b had a 9.5 WAR.

Its staggering how a 1b was able to put up such a high war. It is a ungodly. It's 2x to 3x time more than a league leading 1b.

While leading SS can usually get around 8.x.
Would you rather have a 120 wRC+ average defensive SS or 120 wRC+ average defensive 1B?

Hopefully, you said AS

How about 150 wRC+ SS and 150 wRC+ 1B?

180?
200?

Hopefully you always picked the SS.
Why?

Because you know the SS's defense is more valuable than the 1B's.

Well, it appears in this instance, that the SS's defense was enough better to make up for the 1B man's extra hitting,

One WAR is about 10 runs. So the SS was about 8 runs better than the 1B.
We can see, right away that 8 of those runs are defense. The SS was +6 runs the 1B was -2.

Those numbers are compared to an average SS and average 1B

We've already seen that an average SS is more valuable than an average 1B.
Hjow much more. The accepted value is 20 runs.

So, you add those 20 runs and we're at 28 runs. The SS is, considering only defense, 28 runs better than the 1B.

Now, you have to show that the 1B was 28 runs better offensively than the SS.

28 runs is about the same difference as Alex Bregman (60 runs and a 168 wRC+) and JD Martinez (32.5 runs and a 139 wRC+) - with Bregman having a few more PA's. They had a difference of 29 points of wRC+. Well, in the example, the difference between the 1B's and the SS's wRC+ was a similar, but slightly less 26 points of wRC+.

So, we can see, that the 1B's hitting probably doesn't cover the 28 run deficit he's in after looking at defense, especially, since it's likely the SS had more PA's since the SS hit higher in the order and had more games.

But, the SS has yet another advantage. Base running. We don't know much about the base running of these two players. Only that the SS was a very successful base stealer the first baseman did not add value through base stealing. In 2019, according to FanGraph's, a stolen base was worth .2 runs and a caught stealing was worth -.4 runs. Using those numbers the SS's stolen bases were worth and additional 4.8 runs and the caught stealing cost .4 runs, so, the SS's base stealing netted an extra 4.4 runs.

Stealing isn't the only part of base running, and we know nothing about how these two players performed on the bases outside of stealing, but, we can make a reasonable assumption that the SS who stole 24 of 25 bases provided more base running value than the 1B who stole 0 bases.

We've seen that the SS had 28 additional defensive runs

The first baseman had less than 28 runs due to his bat.

The SS had an additional 4 runs due to base stealing,

And likely had additional runs due to non-stealing base running.



The SS, despite being a lessor hitter, provided more on the field than the 1Bman.

Last edited by CBeisbol; 04-02-2020 at 03:44 AM.
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