Balks & Passed Balls

[pitch62]

Anybody have realistic percentages for passed balls & balks. It seems like there's too many during the game.

[Let'sGoBraves]

Yep, they seem too high. When you play out games it is obvious and many games are decided by wild pitches or passed balls but nothing really happens about it year to year. My biggest issues with the game are that one along with the number of times a sac bunt attempt becomes a double play or the lead runner getting gunned down, even by the third baseman who charged, wheeling fully around to get the runner at third. Playing with the DH saves much frustration. Sometimes this conversation used to morph into a debate over whether simmed and played out games are actually the same thing. Best advice I can give you is just accept it and enjoy the other great aspects of OOTP. This isn't a winnable argument sadly.

[dward1]

it's incredible how many blatant problems with the in-game experience just stay in the game for years and years. baserunning is just silly, with completely wrong mechanics and numbers. no one cares about fixing this though.

balks of course are way too common with runners on 3rd, same with WP/passed balls

[UltimateAverageGuy]

Originally Posted by dward1

it's incredible how many blatant problems with the in-game experience just stay in the game for years and years. baserunning is just silly, with completely wrong mechanics and numbers. no one cares about fixing this though.

balks of course are way too common with runners on 3rd, same with WP/passed balls

You giving away your license key?

[dward1]

Originally Posted by UltimateAverageGuy

You giving away your license key?

what? I love this game

[Reed]

Any hard evidence of to many balls or wild pitches? At one time I thought there were to many but when I check season totals to deal life for several players it was very close. I thought maybe they were not being counted in game so for a couple months I tracked the wild pitches and balls for my team and saw that they were being counted in the player stats.

[Lukas Berger]

This is perfectly normal in our tests, the numbers all come out correctly, whether playing in-game or simming.

So it's not that no one cares, it's that, from our perspective, there's no problem to fix. That being said, we do see similar reports to this from time to time.

Some of it might just be players not realizing how much this actually happens in real life, as with injuries. Still, it does seem that on occasion, whether through human error or a glitch somewhere, it is possible for the league modifiers for wild pitches and passed balls to get out of whack.

So if you're running into this issue, check your league modifiers and if the modifiers for passed balls and/or wild pitches are too high, reset them to something around 1.0. Or if you want them to happen even less, you can set the modifiers lower as well. It's your call.

[jbergey22]

I was kind of thinking the same until I compared league totals.

When playing out games I was seeing 2-3 in the same inning a couple different times which made me think it might be excessive but it seems in line in the big picture. I made a small tweak.

[Syd Thrift]

Balks and passed balls are very specifically something whose frequency is calibrated by the engine. Like, on the last day of your preseason, the game literally runs three consecutive trial runs, looking and adjusting the rates of basically everything each time so that they come out just right (for the most part). I highly, highly, highly suggest to anyone who thinks that a measurable statistic - practically any measurable statistic - is off to look at the league totals and pull up bbref to compare them.

I will say that one thing that *can* happen with low-frequency stats like balks and passed balls (well, I guess more passed balls, since I'm not sure that there is a hidden "balk" rating - at least there's nothing that you can edit) is that, especially if you have a smaller league, if injuries or minor league call ups have you introducing an outlier player (in this case a crappy catcher; see: Geno Petralli IRL), that alone can goose up the totals (Petralli had *40* passed balls between 1986 and 1987, representing more than 10% of the league total in that time) (with the Petralli example, I'm not sure if the game captures the fact that knuckleball pitchers create lots of passed balls - Petralli was Charlie Hough's catcher in those seasons, in addition to being converted to the position in the minors).

I guess the one other caveat about this is... the "getting the stats right" replays generate no injuries and just plays the Opening Day lineups against each other for 162 games, so while stuff tends to balance out in larger leagues, sometimes in, say, an 8 team league one team starting the season with a crappy rotation can all by itself cause the game engine to over-correct and you might see pitching dominate that year a bit more than IRL. And of course, those "preseason predictions" you see are based on (I think) the last of those three replays (at least before OOTP21; now that you can generate them at any time, the only time that's true now is if you look at the preseason predictions during the regular season).

Last season, teams averaged about 12 passed balls and 5 balks per game. That means that you should in turn see one of those (committed by either you or your opponent) happening a little more often than once every 5 games. That seems like a high number but that's the reality.

[Hanokh1967]

Here is part of a post I made 2 years ago--nothing seems to have changed in newer versions.


I am trying to play the Cubs 2018 season but the statistical simulation is so far off that it is not enjoyable--there is little realism.

1) 1.27 HBP per game by Cubs pitchers--0.41 in 2017.

2) 0.73 WP per game by Cubs pitchers--.45 in 2017.

3) 1.64 E per game by Cubs--0.63 in 2018.

4) 0.82(!) Balks per game by Cubs pitchers--0.083 in 2017.

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by Hanokh1967

Here is part of a post I made 2 years ago--nothing seems to have changed in newer versions.


I am trying to play the Cubs 2018 season but the statistical simulation is so far off that it is not enjoyable--there is little realism.

1) 1.27 HBP per game by Cubs pitchers--0.41 in 2017.

2) 0.73 WP per game by Cubs pitchers--.45 in 2017.

3) 1.64 E per game by Cubs--0.63 in 2018.

4) 0.82(!) Balks per game by Cubs pitchers--0.083 in 2017.

Did you use autocalc before the season started?

[Sweed]

Well the OP asked for realistic percentages and stated it "seemed" like there are too many during the game. The trouble is he doesn't tell us how many too many is? Hard to answer the question in that light.

I've played OOTP since v4. and used to manually do my LTMs. When autocalc was added I recorded my League Totals (target numbers) and the resulting OOTP season actual league totals to compare. Though I look over the totals now and haven't bothered writing them down for a few versions. I did find my old notebook and will share a few numbers v12 - v18. Excluding v15 that I didn't write down, too long ago to remember why.

The format will be..
OOTP version # (league total) My OOTP results ###,

Balks..
v12 (146) 138, 190, 222
v13 (146) 72, (LTM was at .405 maybe my error? long time ago not sure)
v14 (146) 203, 114
v15 not sure why but didn't write these down
v16 (146) 118, 137,
v17 (146) 213, 122
v18 (146) 121, 121 yes same total back to back

Wild pitches
v12 (1458) 1406, 1399, 1606
v13 (1458) 1029,
v14 (1458) 1705, 1542
v15 none
v16 (1458) 1526, 1789,
v17 (1458) 1538, 1885
v18 (1458) 1873, 1784

Real life numbers MLB 1995-2019

Balks MLB highest total 205 ........My OOTP high 222
lowest 128 ..............lowest 114 (discard 72,my error?)

Wild pitches
MLB highest 1847 .......My OOTP high 1885
low 1414 ........................low 1029 (also v13, again my error?)
.............................next lowest 1399

Not sure what happened in v13. Only completed one season. I was going through a divorce then so maybe I just lost concentration on what I was doing.

Stats from https://www.baseball-reference.com/l...itching_totals

Looks pretty good to me.

[dward1]

Originally Posted by Lukas Berger

This is perfectly normal in our tests, the numbers all come out correctly, whether playing in-game or simming.

So it's not that no one cares, it's that, from our perspective, there's no problem to fix. That being said, we do see similar reports to this from time to time.

Some of it might just be players not realizing how much this actually happens in real life, as with injuries. Still, it does seem that on occasion, whether through human error or a glitch somewhere, it is possible for the league modifiers for wild pitches and passed balls to get out of whack.

So if you're running into this issue, check your league modifiers and if the modifiers for passed balls and/or wild pitches are too high, reset them to something around 1.0. Or if you want them to happen even less, you can set the modifiers lower as well. It's your call.

we are talking in-game here, games you play out. it's simply not true and I can't believe you are saying this with a straight face, it indicates how little work actually goes into the nuts and bolts of the non-PT game nowadays that you try to pass this off. look at this thread. it shows you players are essentially never thrown out at second, never thrown out on passed balls/wild pitches and don't score often enough on singles from the outfield. these are incredibly obvious bugs and have been for a couple years for anyone who plays games out. no employee joined that thread, I assume because you knew you wouldn't work on game mechanics and how it worked but instead were preoccupied with PT. that's fine and makes sense business-wise, but to see so many of the blatant and obvious errors in basic gameplay is frustrating (bullpen usage and general dumb AI, especially in playoffs is brutal also).

I love the game but am thinking of sitting out '21 because of how little attention is being paid to new features or improving key parts of the game each season. PT is taking up all the time

[Garlon]

Recently I played an entire 1955 season in OOTP20 managing every game for my team (except once when I accidentally simulated to the next day).

My team had 9 Passed Balls, 17 Wild Pitches, and 1 Balk on the season.

In 1955 the real league totals were:
Passed Balls: 210
Wild Pitches: 477
Balks: 36

In my OOTP season:
Passed Balls: 211
Wild Pitches: 406
Balks: 16

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by dward1

it's incredible how many blatant problems with the in-game experience just stay in the game for years and years. baserunning is just silly, with completely wrong mechanics and numbers. no one cares about fixing this though.

balks of course are way too common with runners on 3rd, same with WP/passed balls

Originally Posted by dward1

we are talking in-game here, games you play out. it's simply not true and I can't believe you are saying this with a straight face, it indicates how little work actually goes into the nuts and bolts of the non-PT game nowadays that you try to pass this off. look at this thread. it shows you players are essentially never thrown out at second, never thrown out on passed balls/wild pitches and don't score often enough on singles from the outfield. these are incredibly obvious bugs and have been for a couple years for anyone who plays games out. no employee joined that thread, I assume because you knew you wouldn't work on game mechanics and how it worked but instead were preoccupied with PT. that's fine and makes sense business-wise, but to see so many of the blatant and obvious errors in basic gameplay is frustrating (bullpen usage and general dumb AI, especially in playoffs is brutal also).

I love the game but am thinking of sitting out '21 because of how little attention is being paid to new features or improving key parts of the game each season. PT is taking up all the time

There are lots of these posts on the boards, you're not the only one, and they get some thanks below them. Know what the common theme is in all of them ? None of them show any real world numbers. Please feel free to link to any I've missed, I am human and if I've seem one I don't recall it.

In some of these threads I've posted real world OF assists by base as a way to try to add to the conversation and see if anyone posts their OOTP numbers to compare. It gets ignored.

I've posted my wp and balk numbers that show OOTP numbers are good if you take the trouble to autocalc or set LTM. Also ignored.

Here's some more real world numbers for anyone interested.

MLB 2019
runner on 1b batter hits single: 8241, (runner stop at 2b 5690 .690), (runner reaches 3b or scores 2454 .2977)

runner on 1b batter hits double: 2651, (runner stops at 3b 1536 .579), (runner scores 1037 .391)

runner on 2b batter hits single: 4844 (runner stops at 3b 1740 .359) (runner scores 2903 .599)

Pretty sure we've heard tons of claims that OOTP runners don't advance nearly enough. Well, here are real world numbers to compare with...

OOB Outs on base (does not include pickoffs, caught stealing, or force outs)
1b 214
2b 458
3b 348
HP 457

Now when someone wants to say "this is off, that is laughable, etc." they can have some numbers to compare with their OOTP world. These are not easily sorted using OOTP sort menus IE you can see runner on 1b with x outs if you want and how many runs scored. What you can't sort is by hits\hit types. You'll have to do that manually, which shouldn't be a problem if there are too many to begin with.

It won't be the first time someone manually accumulated stats\data to submit to Markus which lead to a fix. If one "knows" something is wrong and wants it fixed bad enough then it won't be too much work. Several versions ago, I don't recall the issue but I think it had to do with RP, one guy posted the problem. Was kind of ignored, started posting data in his thread, others saw it and started to manually track their leagues and add posts to his thread ( I was one of those) and low and behold he was proven right. It can be done.

Not saying you, or any others, are wrong in some of your claims. I don't have the time or inclination to do all of the leg work for anyone else when I don't see the problem in my game. But... I could be wrong, something a lot of people on these boards will never admit about themselves.

I'm just never sure what Markus and co. are supposed to do with claims not supported by facts?

https://www.baseball-reference.com/l...-batting.shtml

[Qrusher14242]

maybe those numbers are right at the end of the year, but playing game-by-game those feel off.

Passed Balls/Wild Pitches - never seen a runner thrown out, automatic run
Runner trying for 2nd on single - never seen him thrown out. if a rujnner goes for 2nd, he always makes it.

I played out hundreds of games in 19 and about 50 or so in 20.
Balks, i haven't seen a ton, so not sure

PB/WP have been a problem for years.If i have a runner on 3rd, i hope for one cause i always score.

Again, those league #'s may work out at the end of the year, but just sharing my observations of in-game play.

[AlpineSK]

I'd wonder what the totals are like when you play all of the games instead of simming through a week/month/season. Its a small sample size, I know, but I'm currently playing out a historical with the 1988 A's, and I've had at least one balk in virtually every game through mid April. There have already been 45 balks league wide.

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by Qrusher14242

maybe those numbers are right at the end of the year, but playing game-by-game those feel off.

Passed Balls/Wild Pitches - never seen a runner thrown out, automatic run
Runner trying for 2nd on single - never seen him thrown out. if a rujnner goes for 2nd, he always makes it.

I played out hundreds of games in 19 and about 50 or so in 20.
Balks, i haven't seen a ton, so not sure

PB/WP have been a problem for years.If i have a runner on 3rd, i hope for one cause i always score.

Again, those league #'s may work out at the end of the year, but just sharing my observations of in-game play.

I've played 'em all out since v4 (2002) and would disagree. Who's feeling is right?

Thrown out at 2b is probably low but it does happen. IRL it happens apporx 1 every 17 games. Only Ronco posted any OOTP stats that, IIRC, were pulled from game logs by a script he wrote. In his example it was 1 every 45 games. Of course that's just one league, 55 games in, hardly a large sample size but at least it is some numbers. That's from last years thread https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...d.php?t=307048

Balks real life as I posted above 1995 - 2019
High 205 Low 128
There's not a lot to see.

My understanding of wp and pb is it can't be scored that way if a runner is out. If that's wrong someone please correct me. If that's right you cannot be thrown out on either so... if OOTP is to have the correct total everyone of those is going to have to have a runner advance. Again if I'm wrong on that scoring rule someone please feel free to let me know.

We can rehash the same old arguments over and over but until those that "know" or "feel" it is off are willing to do a little research it's not going to change.

Kind of the point of the post, "feel" is not going to lead to change.

So, I'll leave it here and wait and see if anyone posts some data?

[MBarrett]

Originally Posted by AlpineSK

I'd wonder what the totals are like when you play all of the games instead of simming through a week/month/season. Its a small sample size, I know, but I'm currently playing out a historical with the 1988 A's, and I've had at least one balk in virtually every game through mid April. There have already been 45 balks league wide.

This right here. I've often noticed WP/PB/BKs are much more prevalent in my played out games. The end of season totals are always fine because most games just get simmed. I'd guess someone who plays out all of their games will notice the numbers are significantly higher.

[BIG17EASY]

Originally Posted by AlpineSK

I'd wonder what the totals are like when you play all of the games instead of simming through a week/month/season. Its a small sample size, I know, but I'm currently playing out a historical with the 1988 A's, and I've had at least one balk in virtually every game through mid April. There have already been 45 balks league wide.

In real life in 1988, there were 924 balks in all of MLB. If you've had 45 balks in half a month of play, your league is on pace for 540 balks. So your league is way behind the curve compared to real life in 1988.