WAR or WPA ?

Sipimi · 02-25-2019, 11:26 AM

First of all, just know that I'm far from being a stat head. I have interest in the newer metrics but I'm still struggling to understand them, so I'm looking for a bit of assistance here.

I think I understand the WAR concept but WPA is new to me. Intuitively, I thought both stats would be correlated but looking at last season's stats for one of my SP I see :

4.1 WAR
-1.1 WPA

Can someone help me interpret that discrepancy ? The 4.1 WAR looks like a great season but the -1.1 WPA figure makes me wondering if my SP is in fact hurting my team. Which figure is the one I should rely on ?

Thank you in advance!

atabakin · 02-25-2019, 11:31 AM

WAR is independent of context. It doesn't matter if the results come with the game tied or with a 10 run lead or deficit. WPA is situational. In this case your pitcher was not "clutch." He pitched well with big leads, but didn't necessarily get the job done when the game was close.

I think WAR is more predictive of future success, but WPA shows what he did to help or hurt your team.

Sipimi · 02-25-2019, 11:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by atabakin

WAR is independent of context. It doesn't matter if the results come with the game tied or with a 10 run lead or deficit. WPA is situational. In this case your pitcher was not "clutch." He pitched well with big leads, but didn't necessarily get the job done when the game was close.

I think WAR is more predictive of future success, but WPA shows what he did to help or hurt your team.

So WPA should be a more volatile figure, am I right ?

atabakin · 02-25-2019, 11:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sipimi

So WPA should be a more volatile figure, am I right ?

Probably. One inning pitched in a tie game in extra innings will shift the win probability more than 10 innings pitched in various blowouts.

zrog2000 · 02-25-2019, 01:42 PM

Does WPA include defense?

atabakin · 02-25-2019, 01:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zrog2000

Does WPA include defense?

I don't think either includes defense when it comes to pitchers. Could be wrong.

zrog2000 · 02-25-2019, 02:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by atabakin

I don't think either includes defense when it comes to pitchers. Could be wrong.

Oh, well since we're talking about pitchers, WAR does include defense because it's FIP based. There is also rWAR which you can find in one of the advanced stats screens which is a RA/9 based WAR, independent of defense. In this game, WAR resembles fWAR and rWAR resembles bWAR for pitchers. I'm not sure if WPA includes defense for batters.

02-25-2019, 11:26 AM	#1
Sipimi Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 286	WAR or WPA ? First of all, just know that I'm far from being a stat head. I have interest in the newer metrics but I'm still struggling to understand them, so I'm looking for a bit of assistance here. I think I understand the WAR concept but WPA is new to me. Intuitively, I thought both stats would be correlated but looking at last season's stats for one of my SP I see : 4.1 WAR -1.1 WPA Can someone help me interpret that discrepancy ? The 4.1 WAR looks like a great season but the -1.1 WPA figure makes me wondering if my SP is in fact hurting my team. Which figure is the one I should rely on ? Thank you in advance!

02-25-2019, 11:31 AM	#2
atabakin All Star Reserve Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 762	WAR is independent of context. It doesn't matter if the results come with the game tied or with a 10 run lead or deficit. WPA is situational. In this case your pitcher was not "clutch." He pitched well with big leads, but didn't necessarily get the job done when the game was close. I think WAR is more predictive of future success, but WPA shows what he did to help or hurt your team.

02-25-2019, 01:42 PM	#5
zrog2000 All Star Starter Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 1,335	Does WPA include defense?