Squeeze Play

[Déjà Bru]

I am going to put the squeeze on you guys. I need your expertise. When we are done here, I want this thread to be the go-to source for everything about the Squeeze Play in OOTPB!

So, to begin with, say you have a decent runner on third (more about what constitutes that assessment in a future post). You have a batter who has a widely varying set of bunt ratings like the fellow below. Leave out the contact rating for now. Does his guy have a chance in heck of executing his end of a squeeze play, based on his bunt ratings?

Which bunt rating is more important for executing a squeeze play?

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by Déjà Bru

Does his guy have a chance in heck of executing his end of a squeeze play, based on his bunt ratings?

No

[Dyzalot]

Not understanding why there'd be confusion as to what bunting ratings matter here. Wouldn't it be the same as any sac bunt? Why would anyone think that "bunt for hit" matters any more with a guy on 3rd than if it is just a guy on 1st when attempting to bunt them over?

[Déjà Bru]

Originally Posted by Brad K

No

Originally Posted by Dyzalot

Not understanding why there'd be confusion as to what bunting ratings matter here. Wouldn't it be the same as any sac bunt? Why would anyone think that "bunt for hit" matters any more with a guy on 3rd than if it is just a guy on 1st when attempting to bunt them over?

So you are in agreement that Sac Bunt is pretty much synonymous with Squeeze Bunt in this situation. Bunt for Hit implies trying to get on base whereas Sacrifice Bunt / Squeeze Bunt mean just being able to get the bat on the ball and place it in such a manner as to move a runner up a base. Makes sense.

Next question: Say a batter has a decent Sac Bunt rating but a relatively low Contact rating. Do you still trust this batter to attempt a squeeze play bunt?

[mars001]

Originally Posted by Déjà Bru

Next question: Say a batter has a decent Sac Bunt rating but a relatively low Contact rating. Do you still trust this batter to attempt a squeeze play bunt?

My assumption is that these are separate ratings and that the batters contact rating wouldn't impact their bunting rating.

[Dyzalot]

Originally Posted by mars001

My assumption is that these are separate ratings and that the batters contact rating wouldn't impact their bunting rating.

I would make the same assumption since there have been plenty of players in MLB with a career low batting average (low contact) but were very good at bunting. In the very few times where i could see using a squeeze play then I would likely just base my decision on the speed on 3rd base along with the sac bunting ability of the batter at the plate. Maybe also taking into consideration how good the defense is at 1st & 3rd. I don't believe in bunting much though so this almost never comes up for me.

[Déjà Bru]

Great stuff. Thanks, you guys. When you think about it, bunting is a skill separate from swinging a bat. To make contact, and to drive a ball hard enough to get a base hit, it takes a full swing and everything that motion involves in order to do it right. Bunting is squaring up, making solid contact with the ball, keeping it down by staying on top of it, and angling the bat to place the ball optimally. So, I'm looking at Sac Bunt and having confidence in it no matter what Contact says.

Next question. Dyzalot, you bring up defense and that is definitely something I want to talk about but for now, let's concentrate on the runner at third. You say you "base my decision on the speed on 3rd base" but think of this: Of course, you want a fast runner but wouldn't his Stealing rating also be a factor? The squeeze play is like a steal of home, isn't it? How about Baserunning? Or is Speed the only factor?

[Dyzalot]

Originally Posted by Déjà Bru

Great stuff. Thanks, you guys. When you think about it, bunting is a skill separate from swinging a bat. To make contact, and to drive a ball hard enough to get a base hit, it takes a full swing and everything that motion involves in order to do it right. Bunting is squaring up, making solid contact with the ball, keeping it down by staying on top of it, and angling the bat to place the ball optimally. So, I'm looking at Sac Bunt and having confidence in it no matter what Contact says.

Next question. Dyzalot, you bring up defense and that is definitely something I want to talk about but for now, let's concentrate on the runner at third. You say you "base my decision on the speed on 3rd base" but think of this: Of course, you want a fast runner but wouldn't his Stealing rating also be a factor? The squeeze play is like a steal of home, isn't it? How about Baserunning? Or is Speed the only factor?

I'm just making educated guesses here since i don't know the actual mechanics used but I would assume that speed, baserunning & maybe even intelligence would be much bigger factors than stealing. You don't really need that great a jump for a successful squeeze. Success depends a lot more upon the bunter than the runner in my opinion. I very rarely see a squeeze play fail in MLB where there was a good bunt. If it fails then usually it is because the bunter misses, pops it up or puts it in a spot where a fielder can get to it immediately. The skills of the baserunner would be a secondary consideration. Most of the decision would be based upon the bunter's skills and the situation.

[Déjà Bru]

You are making some great points here and helping me, and perhaps others, to crystallize thinking about the squeeze play. I am going to call it a night now but I will check in tomorrow again if there are any other comments. I have a crucial question about defense . . . oh heck, let me ask it now and save time.

It's this. When setting up a squeeze play, I would imagine that certain defensive alignments are more conducive than others to the success of the play.

So, if you see Corners In, or First/Third In (since you cannot control the direction of the bunt in the game), do you call off the squeeze play? Is Infield In (which includes 1B and 3B) also a bad sign?

Conversely, if you see a Shift, Guard Lines, or IF Deep, do you jump for joy and hit the Squeeze Play button, given the other requirements are in place?

'Night. Talk to you guys tomorrow.

[Dyzalot]

Originally Posted by Déjà Bru

You are making some great points here and helping me, and perhaps others, to crystallize thinking about the squeeze play. I am going to call it a night now but I will check in tomorrow again if there are any other comments. I have a crucial question about defense . . . oh heck, let me ask it now and save time.

It's this. When setting up a squeeze play, I would imagine that certain defensive alignments are more conducive than others to the success of the play.

So, if you see Corners In, or First/Third In (since you cannot control the direction of the bunt in the game), do you call off the squeeze play? Is Infield In (which includes 1B and 3B) also a bad sign?

Conversely, if you see a Shift, Guard Lines, or IF Deep, do you jump for joy and hit the Squeeze Play button, given the other requirements are in place?

'Night. Talk to you guys tomorrow.

With the infield or corners playing in, I would definitely look for better bunting ratings from the batter as well as speed from the runner than if they aren't in. However, I can't really think of many spots where I would look at a squeeze play as an option unless it was a spot where the defense would be playing in such as when the tying or go ahead run is on 3rd base late in a ballgame. Other than those limited situations I think that the squeeze play is a losing play compared to just hitting away. I mean if the infield is playing back then most ground balls will score the runner anyways so it would take a pretty inept hitter who also happens to be an elite bunter before I'd consider bunting instead of just hitting away in a spot like that.

[Déjà Bru]

Originally Posted by Dyzalot

With the infield or corners playing in, I would definitely look for better bunting ratings from the batter as well as speed from the runner than if they aren't in. However, I can't really think of many spots where I would look at a squeeze play as an option unless it was a spot where the defense would be playing in such as when the tying or go ahead run is on 3rd base late in a ballgame. Other than those limited situations I think that the squeeze play is a losing play compared to just hitting away. I mean if the infield is playing back then most ground balls will score the runner anyways so it would take a pretty inept hitter who also happens to be an elite bunter before I'd consider bunting instead of just hitting away in a spot like that.

This leads to some interesting theory. You are saying that you would not choose the squeeze play unless the infield is playing in? I was thinking the opposite; that the chances of a successful squeeze play would go up if the infield was playing back.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by Déjà Bru

... Of course, you want a fast runner

Why? The batter lays down a good bunt and the play works. The batter doesn't and the play doesn't.

[Déjà Bru]

Originally Posted by Brad K

Why? The batter lays down a good bunt and the play works. The batter doesn't and the play doesn't.

Well, yeah, the prevailing thought is that the bunt is the most important thing and that the runner is not really stealing a base (home). Still, I would feel better with a fast guy at third than a slow poke in case the bunt is not exactly perfect. The quicker down the baseline, the less time the defense has to react and recover.

Theoretically, that is. I wonder if the game takes running speed into account in this manner or if your lead-footed catcher could score on a squeeze bunt by someone with a high Sac Bunt rating.

[malor]

Interesting thread.

I think everyone that responded confirmed why the play has quickly died as an everyday play in the real world. There are just too many things that have to go perfectly for it to be successful.

The statistics say it is better to just let the batter swing away in almost all cases with the odds of scoring the runner from third higher than the odds of the squeeze bunt succeeding.

[Dyzalot]

Originally Posted by Déjà Bru

This leads to some interesting theory. You are saying that you would not choose the squeeze play unless the infield is playing in? I was thinking the opposite; that the chances of a successful squeeze play would go up if the infield was playing back.

That's not quite what I said. I said that I can't see myself looking to squeeze except in game situations where the defense would generally be playing in. In other words, I only think about squeezing late in games with the tying or go ahead run on 3rd. Well those also happen to be the situations where the infield is usually playing in. If the AI isn't playing the infield in in a tie game in the bottom of the 9th with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs then you have a problem with the AI but yes, a squeeze play would work better there even if it would seem to me like I am taking advantage of the game in that spot.

[Déjà Bru]

Originally Posted by malor

Interesting thread.

I think everyone that responded confirmed why the play has quickly died as an everyday play in the real world. There are just too many things that have to go perfectly for it to be successful.

The statistics say it is better to just let the batter swing away in almost all cases with the odds of scoring the runner from third higher than the odds of the squeeze bunt succeeding.

Originally Posted by Dyzalot

That's not quite what I said. I said that I can't see myself looking to squeeze except in game situations where the defense would generally be playing in. In other words, I only think about squeezing late in games with the tying or go ahead run on 3rd. Well those also happen to be the situations where the infield is usually playing in. If the AI isn't playing the infield in in a tie game in the bottom of the 9th with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs then you have a problem with the AI but yes, a squeeze play would work better there even if it would seem to me like I am taking advantage of the game in that spot.

Yes, I think I am with you guys after this long conversation. The squeeze play is mostly a high-risk gamble, tantamount to just showing off. The only time that I may try it is when I have a terrible batter at the plate (like a pitcher) who may coincidentally have a good Sac Bunt rating, and the guy at third has some speed (I have to think that's factored in somehow). Thanks once again, everybody.

[swoboda]

I've had reasonable success with it. In addition to the bunt rating of the Hitter I look at the fielding rating of the pitcher and I only try the play if the infield is not in
I'm also much more likely to try this for something like an insurance run then to try to tie the game

[Déjà Bru]

Originally Posted by Déjà Bru

Yes, I think I am with you guys after this long conversation. The squeeze play is mostly a high-risk gamble, tantamount to just showing off. The only time that I may try it is when I have a terrible batter at the plate (like a pitcher) who may coincidentally have a good Sac Bunt rating, and the guy at third has some speed (I have to think that's factored in somehow).

Uh, yup. Just like I figured it.

[shoffmastr]

It seems we overlooked the opposing defense at 3b... lower defensive rating is better chance for squeeze play to work also... in particular late/extra inning game when opponent is at the end of his bench... squeeze more likely vs Joe Schmo than vs Brooks Robinson/ Kris Bryant...



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[Dyzalot]

Originally Posted by shoffmastr

It seems we overlooked the opposing defense at 3b... lower defensive rating is better chance for squeeze play to work also... in particular late/extra inning game when opponent is at the end of his bench... squeeze more likely vs Joe Schmo than vs Brooks Robinson/ Kris Bryant...



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Who's "we" kemosabe?