To Offer Arbitration or not

tjw4 · 08-11-2014, 02:49 AM

33 years old
Right Fielder
4 stars (but not worthy of that rating)

Contact 13/14, Gap 16/16, Power 16/16, Eye 9/12, K 11/12

Defense19 RF, 14 CF

Last years salary was 14.3m
Current Arbitration offer would amount to 14.0m
In possible free agents page his current demand is 17m
He will not negotiate with me

I do not want him to accept the arbitration. But am considering offering it for either the pick or the chance to sign him cheaper at the end of the FA period. Last year he did not accept arbitration so I resigned him on a 1 year deal. Last years arbitration offer was around 10million as we used OOTP13 but have since switched to 15 starting with this off-season.

Prior to switching to 15, he was willing to negotiate for a much lower amount something like 5 years at 7-8mil per year.

Does anyone have experience with a similar type of player. One that wont negotiate and his demand is higher than the arb offer but is unlikely to command that amount on the open market so arb would actually be a good decision for him in real life.

Dyzalot · 08-11-2014, 03:35 AM

I have yet to see a free agent accept arbitration in OOTP.

84Hammy · 08-11-2014, 10:31 AM

I just had one sign...he is a reliever who wants to close. The arbitration amount was 14 mil, he made 6 mil that previous season, with a sub 2 ERA. I didn't think he would take it and was hoping to get compensation. He took it, though I think he might have got more as a free agent as a few teams are without a proper closer.

BIG17EASY · 08-11-2014, 10:36 AM

What you have to ask yourself is: Can I live with paying him between 14M and 16M for one season if he accepts? If the answer is yes, then you offer arbitration. If the answer is a flat no, then you can't risk it. If the answer is somewhere in the middle, you need to evaluate your other free agent needs and what players will likely be available. Also, can you get a similar player through free agency for less than 14M?

tayloraj · 08-11-2014, 11:18 AM

I've had all kinds of problems getting players to decline arbitration and test free agency; the last decade or so in my MLB quickstart league I've had two 30-something SPs who kept on accepting arbitration year after year (one of them three years in a row), even after having relatively good seasons and asking for 4 years/$64 million when I engaged them in extension talks.

This isn't the end of the world, of course; Boston is #9 in budget in my league so I have a little money to play around with, and having an extra quality SP on short money around is something I think most teams would be willing to deal with. Unless you're really strapped for cash, I'd say offer him arbitration; the worst that can happen is you've got a pretty decent player at something like market price with no long-term commitments.

RchW · 08-11-2014, 11:40 AM

Just to clarify, the game calls it arbitration but we are talking about qualifying offers for pending FA not arbitration right?

BIG17EASY · 08-11-2014, 12:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RchW

Just to clarify, the game calls it arbitration but we are talking about qualifying offers for pending FA not arbitration right?

Right.

eriqjaffe · 08-11-2014, 02:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dyzalot

I have yet to see a free agent accept arbitration in OOTP.

I just had it happen in an OOTP15 solo league Two pending FA's accepted arbitration, and the arbitrator gave them absolutely insane contracts - on the order of a reliever with a 5+ ERA getting $14 million insane. It killed my ability to do much of anything in free agency.

But, well, yeah, I've seen it happen. Be very careful.

Kronos · 08-11-2014, 02:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dyzalot

I have yet to see a free agent accept arbitration in OOTP.

It happens, borderline mediocre guys always accept.

RchW · 08-11-2014, 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kronos

It happens, borderline mediocre guys always accept.

Which considering the QO may be $11-$14 million or the equivalent in other financial levels means that anyone who offers it deserves their fate.

BIG17EASY · 08-11-2014, 02:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eriqjaffe

I just had it happen in an OOTP15 solo league Two pending FA's accepted arbitration, and the arbitrator gave them absolutely insane contracts - on the order of a reliever with a 5+ ERA getting $14 million insane. It killed my ability to do much of anything in free agency.

But, well, yeah, I've seen it happen. Be very careful.

This happened to me a couple weeks ago. I offered to Jose Valverde because he had pitched well and it said the suggested deal (or whatever the verbiage is) was $3 million. He wound up getting $14 million. I immediately edited that to the $3 million number.

84Hammy · 08-11-2014, 04:56 PM

The 14 mil is the average salary which is awarded to the compensation eligible free agents...if he takes it it costs you 14 mil, if not, you get compensation if somebody else signs him.

The arbitration process in general is an area for improvement with the game. In real life not many players go to a hearing, but in the game players don't seem to have realistic contract demands, so it is often cheaper to just let them go to a hearing than try to sign them (long term or otherwise).

Dyzalot · 08-11-2014, 05:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eriqjaffe

I just had it happen in an OOTP15 solo league Two pending FA's accepted arbitration, and the arbitrator gave them absolutely insane contracts - on the order of a reliever with a 5+ ERA getting $14 million insane. It killed my ability to do much of anything in free agency.

But, well, yeah, I've seen it happen. Be very careful.

Sorry. I should have said that I've never seen the AI except arbitration for a compensation pick eligible free agent.

RchW · 08-12-2014, 10:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eriqjaffe

I just had it happen in an OOTP15 solo league Two pending FA's accepted arbitration, and the arbitrator gave them absolutely insane contracts - on the order of a reliever with a 5+ ERA getting $14 million insane. It killed my ability to do much of anything in free agency.

But, well, yeah, I've seen it happen. Be very careful.

It's not arbitration. It's a qualifying offer made voluntarily to get compensation and it is set (not awarded) by the average of the top 125 contracts in MLB. I clarified this in an earlier post.

I wish Markus would correct the wording in this module. It creates a lot of confusion.

da commish · 08-12-2014, 11:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dyzalot

I have yet to see a free agent accept arbitration in OOTP.

Same for me, up until the latest round which was just after I applied the latest patch. I had 2 players accept qualifying offers that I had hoped would decline so I would get the draft picks. I got stuck with 2 $13MM contracts that I could barely afford. I thought it might be due to the latest patch that fixed qualifying offers but it's hard to tell since there were 18 players that declined and were therefore compensation eligible FAs. I think I could have signed both of those guys for less but I really didn't need/want them at either salary. Guess I learned a lesson.

BIG17EASY · 08-12-2014, 11:47 AM

Just keeping an eye on this thread and it seems a few people (myself included) have seen some insane contracts given to players who accept the qualifying offer/arbitration. I think we need some more research on this in case a bug has been introduced in the latest patch.

Gai1997 · 08-12-2014, 11:54 AM

I see players accept a lot. Especially relievers. No reliever is making above 8m so giving them arbitration is an automatic acceptance.

tjw4 · 08-12-2014, 02:53 PM

I don't think this guy is worth 14m so I think Im not going to offer him arb as I already have a stud catcher that should net me a pick and a stud closer that at the age of 31 if he accepts is a serious bug in the engine, as its one of his last chances to nail down a monster long term deal. I should walk away from this off-season with 2 extra picks, I doubt anyone would sign the OF to a deal if they had to give up a pick since no one did last season, so I think its just not worth the risk/reward.

Really whats my reward...that I get to sign him to an above market 1 year deal once UFA is complete because no one would touch him because he had a pick attached to him?

I know I wouldn't sign him as I really would only sign an absolute stud when it costs me a pick.

Lukas Berger · 08-12-2014, 03:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BIG17EASY

Just keeping an eye on this thread and it seems a few people (myself included) have seen some insane contracts given to players who accept the qualifying offer/arbitration. I think we need some more research on this in case a bug has been introduced in the latest patch.

It's not a bug. As Rch explained earlier "It's a qualifying offer made voluntarily to get compensation and it is set (not awarded) by the average of the top 125 contracts in MLB.".

That's always going to be in the range of 12-15 million plus. It's the same in rl, the qo in order to get a comp pick for a guy is a minimum of something like 13 mil. If you choose to make a qo to a guy, that's what you can expect him to get.

So you should really only make the offer to people that are worth that kind of money, essentially guys who are among the top 125 players in the league.

rpriske · 08-12-2014, 03:20 PM

Offer and if he accepts, shop him. Somebody will offer something cheaper and send him on his way...

08-11-2014, 02:49 AM	#1
tjw4 Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 35	To Offer Arbitration or not 33 years old Right Fielder 4 stars (but not worthy of that rating) Contact 13/14, Gap 16/16, Power 16/16, Eye 9/12, K 11/12 Defense19 RF, 14 CF Last years salary was 14.3m Current Arbitration offer would amount to 14.0m In possible free agents page his current demand is 17m He will not negotiate with me I do not want him to accept the arbitration. But am considering offering it for either the pick or the chance to sign him cheaper at the end of the FA period. Last year he did not accept arbitration so I resigned him on a 1 year deal. Last years arbitration offer was around 10million as we used OOTP13 but have since switched to 15 starting with this off-season. Prior to switching to 15, he was willing to negotiate for a much lower amount something like 5 years at 7-8mil per year. Does anyone have experience with a similar type of player. One that wont negotiate and his demand is higher than the arb offer but is unlikely to command that amount on the open market so arb would actually be a good decision for him in real life.

08-11-2014, 11:40 AM	#6
RchW Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: The big smoke Posts: 15,628	Just to clarify, the game calls it arbitration but we are talking about qualifying offers for pending FA not arbitration right? __________________ Cheers RichW If you’re looking for a good cause to donate money to please consider a Donation to Parkinson’s Canada. It may help me have a better future and if not me, someone else. Thanks. “Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition …There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.” Frank Wilhoit

08-12-2014, 03:20 PM	#20
rpriske Hall Of Famer Join Date: Sep 2012 Location: Spencerville, ON, Canada Posts: 23,971 Blog Entries: 1	Offer and if he accepts, shop him. Somebody will offer something cheaper and send him on his way... __________________ Rusty Priske Poet, Canadian, Baseball Fan ````````````````````````````````````````

08-11-2014, 03:35 AM	#2
Dyzalot All Star Starter Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 1,735	I have yet to see a free agent accept arbitration in OOTP.

08-11-2014, 10:31 AM	#3
84Hammy All Star Reserve Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Stinky Windsor Posts: 916	I just had one sign...he is a reliever who wants to close. The arbitration amount was 14 mil, he made 6 mil that previous season, with a sub 2 ERA. I didn't think he would take it and was hoping to get compensation. He took it, though I think he might have got more as a free agent as a few teams are without a proper closer.

08-11-2014, 10:36 AM	#4
BIG17EASY Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 3,291	What you have to ask yourself is: Can I live with paying him between 14M and 16M for one season if he accepts? If the answer is yes, then you offer arbitration. If the answer is a flat no, then you can't risk it. If the answer is somewhere in the middle, you need to evaluate your other free agent needs and what players will likely be available. Also, can you get a similar player through free agency for less than 14M?

08-11-2014, 11:18 AM	#5
tayloraj Minors (Double A) Join Date: Mar 2012 Location: Philadelphia, PA Posts: 162	I've had all kinds of problems getting players to decline arbitration and test free agency; the last decade or so in my MLB quickstart league I've had two 30-something SPs who kept on accepting arbitration year after year (one of them three years in a row), even after having relatively good seasons and asking for 4 years/$64 million when I engaged them in extension talks. This isn't the end of the world, of course; Boston is #9 in budget in my league so I have a little money to play around with, and having an extra quality SP on short money around is something I think most teams would be willing to deal with. Unless you're really strapped for cash, I'd say offer him arbitration; the worst that can happen is you've got a pretty decent player at something like market price with no long-term commitments.

08-11-2014, 04:56 PM	#12
84Hammy All Star Reserve Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Stinky Windsor Posts: 916	The 14 mil is the average salary which is awarded to the compensation eligible free agents...if he takes it it costs you 14 mil, if not, you get compensation if somebody else signs him. The arbitration process in general is an area for improvement with the game. In real life not many players go to a hearing, but in the game players don't seem to have realistic contract demands, so it is often cheaper to just let them go to a hearing than try to sign them (long term or otherwise).

08-12-2014, 11:47 AM	#16
BIG17EASY Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 3,291	Just keeping an eye on this thread and it seems a few people (myself included) have seen some insane contracts given to players who accept the qualifying offer/arbitration. I think we need some more research on this in case a bug has been introduced in the latest patch.

08-12-2014, 11:54 AM	#17
Gai1997 Major Leagues Join Date: Aug 2014 Posts: 370	I see players accept a lot. Especially relievers. No reliever is making above 8m so giving them arbitration is an automatic acceptance.

08-12-2014, 02:53 PM	#18
tjw4 Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 35	I don't think this guy is worth 14m so I think Im not going to offer him arb as I already have a stud catcher that should net me a pick and a stud closer that at the age of 31 if he accepts is a serious bug in the engine, as its one of his last chances to nail down a monster long term deal. I should walk away from this off-season with 2 extra picks, I doubt anyone would sign the OF to a deal if they had to give up a pick since no one did last season, so I think its just not worth the risk/reward. Really whats my reward...that I get to sign him to an above market 1 year deal once UFA is complete because no one would touch him because he had a pick attached to him? I know I wouldn't sign him as I really would only sign an absolute stud when it costs me a pick.