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OOTP 19 - Fictional Simulations Discuss fictional simulations and their results in this forum.

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Old 09-08-2018, 08:53 PM   #281
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Well, apparently Bobby Erbakan isn't lacking in confidence. First week in the majors and his expectation is to be in the starting lineup. Going 0 for 4 in his first game didn't do a lot to build up the confidence of anyone else though. But he will get his opportunities to prove he belongs.

(P.S. Nice start by new Brewer Ricky Diaz as he worked 8 2/3rds, giving up just 1 run on 5 hits. Unfortunately, with the Brewers offense sputtering of late he didn't get the win but the Brewers did manage to walk-off with the victory thanks to a 10th inning pinch-hit double by Tom O'Donnell, who rejoined the team recently due to a minor injury suffered by Antonio Puente (tender shoulder in his throwing arm) which landed him (in perhaps an excess of caution by the team) on the 10-day DL.)
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Old 09-08-2018, 09:22 PM   #282
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And then, because baseball is baseball and you never know what might happen from day to day, with your promising, but often still over-matched, young back-end of the rotation starter on the mound against one of the best pitchers this season and one of the better younger starters in the game, you get an easy victory.
Plus, Bobby Erbakan gets his first major league hit in this game, a sixth inning run scoring single.
And what about young Mr. Souffront? Well, Ruben just keeps plugging along with a 2 for 5, 2 runs scored game and has a slash line of .339/.361/.464. He also picks up his 23rd stolen base of the year. (He has been caught stealing 9 times now.)
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Old 09-08-2018, 09:38 PM   #283
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With the annual All-Star Game coming up next week, final results of voting are in and a few Brewers get named to the team. For the third year in a row, catcher Sam Rogers is named the starter at that position for the MGL. Coming out of nowhere in the voting, leftfielder Antonio Puente ended up getting the most votes among MGL players at his position. Unfortunately, Puente's last day on the DL is the day of the game so he will be unable to take his place on the field.
Reliever Miguel Solis makes the team as the third highest vote getter among relievers in the MGL.
A couple of Brewers finish in second place, albeit distantly, at their position. Tanner Yurek is beaten out handily by the great Phoenix Speed Devils star Chris Flaim. Young shortstop Chad Brown also comes out of nowhere to take second to Portland's Andy Wilson, a former MVP and one of the biggest stars of the game. Brown is, however, awarded a spot on the squad.

So the three Brewers who will represent Denver in the game are captain Sam Rogers, reliever Miguel Solis, and shortstop Chad Brown, with the injured Antonio Puente honored by a selection as starting leftfielder but unable to play.
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Old 09-09-2018, 10:34 AM   #284
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At Roadrunners Park in Pittsburgh today, fans saw the Shoeless Joe League (of which Pittsburgh is a member) lose in humiliating fashion to the Moonlight Graham League, 10-1. It was a close game until the 8th inning, when the MGL put up 7 runs, mostly due to the wildness of Jacksonville closer Micah Ray. Ray worked 3 2/3rds innings, walking 8 batters and giving up a total of 8 runs. One wonders what the SJL manager, Pat Riggs, who is of course also Ray's manager, was thinking in keeping him in so long on a day when he clearly didn't have command. I'm sure the Jacksonville newspapers will be full of wild speculations about this in tomorrow's editions. (One possible hint: Ray is considered an unmotivated player whose intelligence and work ethic are both questionable, and manager Riggs may not be fond of him in spite of Ray's obvious talent, and might have been sending a bit of a message.)

The scoring in the game got started thanks to a Sam Rogers double in the 3rd inning. Sam would end up 1 for 3 in the game. Other Brewers participants would also fare well. Miguel Solis worked one solid, scoreless inning. And Chad Brown contributed to the 7 run 8th inning with a run scoring single (he would go 1 for 2.)
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Old 09-09-2018, 10:53 AM   #285
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A look at the current standings in the WPK, as we prepare to resume play following the All-Star break, shows some shakeup from the status quo of the past two seasons. While Jacksonville remains close to the top in the SJL, at the moment the Philadelphia Mud Hens, who finished in 8th place last year (although in 2nd place in 1965) are leading the league.
In the MGL, Portland has been on fire, winning 8 straight, and have a 5 game lead over the Phoenix Speed Devils. Meanwhile, the MGL champs two years running, Los Angeles, have dropped 8 straight and are only 3 games over .500 in 5th place.
The Brewers, in spite of being a game under .500 and in 7th place, are far ahead of the bottom three in the MGL and not terribly far behind the three teams immediately ahead of them. So they have the goal for now of moving up the ladder step-by-step. And after that, who knows.
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Old 09-09-2018, 02:13 PM   #286
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So how about a mid-season (sort of) look at some of the Brewers prospects and how they are faring this year.

We already know that Willie Chavez is tearing things up at AAA Chester. He currently has a slash line of .352/.404/.568 and has put up 3.4 WAR on the season, is a solid defensive thirdbaseman and a very fine runner. While Chavez looks like a player whose ceiling is average WPK player, he most surely will be in a Brewers uniform at some point this season, the only question being whether it it will be after the September 1st roster expansion or prior. And with the Brewers not interested in re-signing Steve Cutrer, who becomes a free agent at the end of the season, Chavez will likely be given a chance to compete for the thirdbase job next season.

A couple of other players at AAA having pretty solid seasons are starting pitcher Bobby Arends and outfielder Juan Magana.
Arends is a solid 9-4 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.35 WHIP and has a WAR of 2.1. It is likely that Arends will get a September call-up to the bigs and he could possibly compete for the last spot in the starting rotation next year or a long-relief/emergency starter gig. Possibly.
Magana is a long-time Brewers farm-hand who provides great defense and blazing speed but is at best a mediocre hitter. He will also probably get a September call-up and could be in the mix for a bench role in 1968. Or he could be good trade bait.
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Old 09-09-2018, 02:21 PM   #287
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The news isn't as good for prospects at AA Nashville, where that team continues to struggle to win ball games and has very poor overall morale. Former 1st round pick Jaden Francis continues to be a largely ineffective minor league pitcher though the scouting staff continues to believe that he will put it together at some point to become a solid major league bullpen piece.
Jose Careaga, considered the top prospect for the team at thirdbase, has struggled at the plate since being promoted from single A Bainbridge earlier in the season. There is hope though that he will recapture his brilliance of the 1966 season given some time to adjust.
And outfielder Dave Manning, considered one of the better power prospects in the organization, but also thought to have questionable work ethics and plate discipline, has taken a step backwards this year, though his numbers aren't exactly horrible.
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Old 09-09-2018, 02:39 PM   #288
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Three players at single A Bainbridge stand out for having put up really fine numbers this season.
Top starting pitching prospect (well, probably not, as that third pitch is likely to never develop, but that's another story for another time) Rob Ibarra has put up a 2.0 WAR thus far with 10 wins and 7 losses, a 3.56 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. Not spectacular numbers but a sign of good progress on his part.

Then we have two outfielders who have put up what can only be thought of as cartoonishly good numbers at the plate this year.
First, Andrew Kennedy, who isn't considered a premium prospect due to his fairly average defensive skills, poor running ability, and questionable plate discipline. On the other hand, although he lacks power, his hitting skills look like they could be way above average, even spectacular. And this season he has a crazy good slash line of .438/.462/.667 and a WAR of 1.6. Granted it is in a small sample size as he has just 106 plate appearances. Still, the thought is that his upside at the plate is quite high.
Centerfielder Jordan Gallardo, who was a Latin American scouting discovery from the Dominican Republic, and who provides plus defense and speed and is considered very smart and a hard worker, put up his gaudy numbers mostly at Jersey City (short season A ball club) but in his very brief time at Bainbridge he is showing no signs of slowing down. His slash line at Jersey City was .472/.518/.625 with a 1.3 WAR in 83 plate appearances. The thought at this time is that Gallardo likely profiles as a fourth outfielder at best, but with his great passion and dedication to the game and his smarts there is some hope that he may exceed expectations.
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Old 09-09-2018, 02:51 PM   #289
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There isn't much to report at this time from the lower levels of the minor leagues. Recently drafted lefty reliever Jeremy Walker has fared pretty well thus far at Jersey City in spite of his lack of control. But in order to move up the system he will need to at least reverse those BB/9 and K/9 numbers.
Pretty good firstbase prospect Steve Hobza has done all right at Jersey City though he is inexplicably unhappy (every one of his morale indicators is normal but his overall morale is unhappy- what gives, Steve?). One of the best signs with Hobza is that he is displaying very fine patience at the plate and has a solid OBP.
And finally, the top pick for the Brewers in this year's draft (#5 overall), Joe McPhillips, isn't exactly tearing it up so far in the Rookie League but is holding his own just fine. And like Hobza, McPhillips shows nice plate discipline.
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Old 09-09-2018, 06:41 PM   #290
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Great week for Juan Magana at AAA Chester as he continues to try to build a case for inclusion on the Brewers active player roster.
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Old 09-09-2018, 09:28 PM   #291
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And with a 2-game sweep of the Spinners in Los Angeles (after having nearly swept three from the first place Portland Wild Things- Portland needed an 11th inning walk off to steal game 3) and a double-header split against the lowly Detroit Falcons (who have our number this year), the Brewers move ahead of the once-mighty Spinners into sixth place.

As for our two talented young speedy outfielders- Ruben Souffront and Pat Rondeau.
Well, perhaps predictably enough young Mr. Rondeau has finally fallen back to earth and been in a pretty significant slump for the past month or so. He is still playing terrific defense in centerfield and has 18 stolen bases with only two times caught stealing. But his batting average has dropped down to .267 and his OBP is down to .295. His 1.4 WAR isn't bad though for a kid still learning his way around the league.
Ruben, on the other hand, continues to shine. He is 4th in the MGL in batting average at .339 and leads the league in stolen bases at 28 (he has been caught 12 times.) He has a 2.8 WAR and a slash line of .339/.359/.448. Any earlier doubts about Ruben's readiness for the big time have been fully erased. He is clearly one of the stars of the team.
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Old 09-10-2018, 01:09 AM   #292
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I think it's a real testament to the development of 20-year old shortstop Chad Brown (and to our scouting department for spotting his potential) that he has been so good at the plate and especially in the field this year that he now easily leads the team in WAR. And though he doesn't draw a lot of walks, I love that his walks trail his strikeouts by just one.
Given his age (he turns 21 a few days shy of a month from now) it seems likely we might only be seeing the beginning of a truly important career.
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Old 09-10-2018, 12:22 PM   #293
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With a team that is still just fighting to stay around or slightly above .500, you find yourself thinking ahead to the future and daydreaming about what might be.
I often find myself listing out a possible future lineup and estimating, trying to find some balance between what is realistic but also what is possible if things break right, what kind of numbers my players might produce. I've gone back and looked at these later and some, especially for young players with little to no major league experience, were way off. Others, though, are starting to come true (Chad Brown, Ruben Souffront, Antonio Puente, etc.)

This morning I find myself putting together just such a list, thinking about what might be in 5 seasons.
And this is what that list looks like:
1- Tanner Yurek, secondbase: .265-.280 BA, .345-.365 OBP, 25-35 doubles, 5-10 triples, 15-23 HR's, 12-24 stolen bases, above average defense.

2- Chad Brown, shortstop: .315-.330 BA, .345-.370 OBP, 25-35 doubles, 5-12 triples, 4-8 HR's, 15-25 stolen bases, gold glove caliber defense.

3- Ruben Souffront, rightfield: .320-.340 BA, ..355-.375 OBP, 30-40 doubles, 8-15 triples, 10-22 HR's, 35-70 stolen bases, above average defense.

4- Antonio Puente, leftfield: .270-.285 BA, .350-.370 OBP, 25-35 doubles, 3-8 triples, 30-45 HR's, 10-15 stolen bases, gold glove caliber defense.

5- Bobby Erbakan, firstbase: .300-.330 BA, .355-.375 OBP, 25-35 doubles, 5-10 triples, 15-25 HR's, 15-25 stolen bases, gold glove caliber defense.

6- Jose Careaga, thirdbase: .280-.295 BA, .340-.355 OBP, 15-22 doubles, 1-3 triples, 10-20 HR's, 0-3 stolen bases, above average defense.

7- Pat Rondeau, centerfield: .295-.320 BA, .330-.350 OBP, 30-45 doubles, 10-15 triples, 2-5 HR's, 30-65 stolen bases, gold glove caliber defense.

8- Sam Rogers, catcher: .245-.265 BA, .345-.360 OBP, 15-22 doubles, 1-3 triples, 5-8 HR's, 0-4 stolen bases, average to slightly above average defense.

Now obviously a lot can happen and the chances of all of this coming true are slim. Then again, some of these players might develop even better than this and other players might come along that take the place of the players listed above. On the plus side, most of these players are young enough that 5 years down the road they are likely to still be in Brewers uniforms. And two- Puente and Yurek, are already signed to contracts that extend beyond that time frame. Sam Rogers will be 33 five seasons from now, so hard to know how aging will affect him or if he will still be with the team. I am far more confident of the possibility of these projections coming true for the first four slots in the lineup. It is much harder to project yet how Erbakan and Rondeau will develop and Careaga might flame out completely or be far less solid in the big leagues than this. Then again, he might take another step forward and become a star.

The HR numbers are probably a bit overly optimistic, with the hopes that Erbakan and Souffront, to name two, will develop more power as they age. Both are larger men who are expected to make good contact and it isn't totally unreasonable, based also upon current potential ratings, that they at least become average or slightly above average homerun hitters. Some of the stolen base numbers might, if anything, almost be too conservative. As we progress the statistical modifiers of this league will be heading into the mid-70's and early 80's and stolen bases numbers overall should be pretty robust. And with especially Souffront and Rondeau having speed/sb/baserunning ratings that are at the top of the scale, they could put up some real Tim Raines/Ricky Henderson kinds of seasons.
And given current trends and ratings it is probably not unreasonable to expect at least a few of these players- Brown, Puente, Erbakan- to win some gold glove awards.
I also like the balance of this lineup. It contains 2 switch-hitters (Brown and Careaga), 3 lefthanded hitters (Yurek, Puente, Rondeau), and 3 righthanded hitters (Souffront, Erbakan, Rogers.)

Now, pitching, that's another story. Given the current makeup of team and minor league prospects, the bullpen could be quite strong for the foreseeable future. The starting rotation though is another question entirely. And the area most likely to need some infusions from free agency and/or trades.

But I like the looks of the core of this team, at least in terms of position players. And hey, one can always dream, right?
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Old 09-10-2018, 01:08 PM   #294
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Thumbs up

Will be interesting to see how the 'vision' matches up to the reality. Good idea sharing it.
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Old 09-10-2018, 01:54 PM   #295
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stevem810 View Post
Will be interesting to see how the 'vision' matches up to the reality. Good idea sharing it.
Thanks!
I realized as I was typing this that I was doing it as much as anything else so that I could go back to it later and see how realistic/unrealistic my view of these players was. Or, also, as a test of my scouting director and his view of their potential.
When I did this earlier-I think at the end of the first season- and then went back to look at it I started to think that I was way too optimistic about the futures of players like Souffront and Brown. But now that we are past the half-way point of this 1967 season they are putting up almost exactly the numbers I had earlier estimated for them. Except that Ruben's power numbers are still shy of what I had guessed/hoped for.
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Old 09-15-2018, 12:51 AM   #296
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In the midst of a rough and challenging stretch of games, having dropped 4 straight and 6 out of the last 7, in the first game of a 3-game series against the 2nd place Phoenix Speed Devils, the Brewers go into the bottom of the 9th trailing 5-2. The 2 runs both came on solo HR's- one by predictable source Antonio Puente, the other by a most unpredictable source, back-up catcher Tony Silmon. Silmon is arguably the worst player on the Brewers roster, and pretty much unarguably the worst hitter among non-pitchers (and several pitchers on the team are better hitters than Silmon.)
So when the Brewers mounted a bit of a comeback in the 9th, and managed to get two runners on with two outs, in spite of his earlier longball there was little hope when Silmon came to the plate (starting catcher Sam Rogers having been given the day off with no exceptions). So, of course, Silmon stroked a 3-run shot into the rightfield seats to tie the game. And the Brewers would then get a solo blast off the bat of Tanner Yurek in the bottom of the 10th to walk it off.
Because on any given day in this crazy game of baseball, you just never know what might happen.
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Old 09-15-2018, 01:05 AM   #297
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A story out of Atlanta caught our eye this week. A 20-year old thirdbaseman for the Rookie League Atlanta Monkeys had a fine week and was named the Rookie League Player-of-the-Week. John Kinsella is most likely a career minor leaguer but is respected for his intelligence and wit and is known to be a favorite among the local baseball writers. He also has a celebrated, and perhaps auspicious, last name. Only time will tell if Mr. Kinsella is bound for future glory, and if not, well, he had one fine moment in the Georgia sun this past week.

(Kinsella, some of you might have guessed, is a created player, a character out of the fictional oeuvre of Mr. W.P. Kinsella, the namesake of this little baseball universe. John Kinsella is Ray Kinsella's papa, and Ray was, of course, the main character/protagonist in Shoeless Joe/Field of Dreams. I will be, on occasion, dropping a Kinsella character into the WPK world. It is unlikely that any of them will ever make it to the bigs, but it will be fun to see them pop up on the radar every now and then the way John Kinsella did this week.)
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Old 09-15-2018, 01:17 AM   #298
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With the team struggling, and the offense sputtering a bit, and with the trading deadline rapidly approaching, the Brewers sent thirdbaseman Steve Cutrer (eligible for free agency at the end of the season) to San Antonio for veteran firstbaseman Aaron Fuller. Fuller is considered a quality guy in the clubhouse and a sparkplug on the field. But most importantly to team management, Fuller provides a solid righthanded bat to the middle of the lineup with a bit of power. Although he is a distinct downgrade defensively from the two youngsters who have been manning first- Erik Shelton and Bobby Erbakan- with the overall strength of the Brewers defense and the relative importance (or lack thereof) of the position in that regard, it was felt that this would be a good trade-off.
It does leave thirdbase a bit weaker, offensively at least, with Hector Uribe and Jose Bravo likely sharing time there. But both are at least a good with the glove as Cutrer was and Fuller is expected to be a big improvement over Cutrer at the plate.
Fuller, approaching 35, is signed through next season, and the hope is that he will provide veteran leadership and give young Mr. Erbakan (who has struggled at the plate thus far as a Brewer) time to earn the right to be his replacement.
(Fuller is also an extremely well known and popular player and team management was not at all disappointed by the apparent surge in fan interest on the wake of his acquisition.)
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Old 09-15-2018, 03:53 AM   #299
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And for the second night in a row, a Tanner Yurek walk-off HR wins the game for the Brewers. This one came in the 9th inning to erase a 3-0 deficit.
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Old 09-15-2018, 03:56 AM   #300
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Bad news out of Milwaukee as former Brewer Chris Montefusco suffers a season-ending injury.
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