Best Starters

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by chazzycat

ok I guess I am not understanding your chart then. I only see 1 guy on there with FIP_p under 3.1? (Pedro) What am I missing

That chart was done with his old formula.

[chazzycat]

Aha, thanks! I hadn't realized the fundamentals of pitching had changed so drastically in the past few hours

[omniart]

I'm enjoying the statistical work in this thread. Keep it up!

Personally, I've just been using the add Stuff + Movement + Control together and look for the best Movement ratings among the highest totals. That simple method led me to buy the underrated 82 Brett Anderson card (53/70/84). He's been a consistent performer for me.

[stl jason]

Originally Posted by Orcin

FIP of 3.40 is nowhere near top 10. More like 3.10. I have Lincecum at 3.55 FIP, which makes him top 50.

didn't see him in your list, so if you haven't seen his card yet, here's Dizzy Trout (just found him in the AH and picked him up for my pre-ww2 team). Scores a 3.56 FIP with the new formula.

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by stl jason

didn't see him in your list, so if you haven't seen his card yet, here's Dizzy Trout (just found him in the AH and picked him up for my pre-ww2 team). Scores a 3.56 FIP with the new formula.

Thanks! Could you tell me what the "last 5" auction price is?

[stl jason]

Originally Posted by orcin

thanks! Could you tell me what the "last 5" auction price is?

13750

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by stl jason

13750

Wow, wish I had seen that one.

[stl jason]

Originally Posted by Orcin

Wow, wish I had seen that one.

yeah, he was up for 12000 with a BIN of 13500.... I stared at it for a moment and (briefly) considered going the cheapskate route of waiting it out and lowballing it to save a buck here and there

then thought better of it and said to myself "don't be stupid... just spend the dang 1500 extra now and get it before someone else does"

[daves]

Originally Posted by ASURay

I put together a model the predicts FIP based on STF/MOV/CON ratings. There is some negative bias since I used data from all leagues (I plan to revise the model using just Perfect League data once there is enough), but the rank order seems spot on. So far, the Top 10 SP cards I've seen per the model are:

1) 100 Pedro (best by a mile)
2) 97 Pedro
3) 97 Carl Hubbell
4) 96 Cy Young
5) 96 Kevin Brown
6) 100 Doc Gooden
7) 96 Walter Johnson
8) 96 Mark Prior
9) 100 Randy Johnson
10) 93 Greg Maddux

This comes with the caveat that there are some good cards out there I don't have the ratings for -- 100 Maddux, 97 Cy Seymour, 96 Dazzy Vance, 95 Matt Harvey, etc.

This list represents 10 Pitchers I cannot afford. Each one is typically 100,000 PP or more in the auction.

How about the best Pitchers selling for 25,000 or less?

[SayHey1]

Thanks for the list! I used it to pick up Cy Blanton off the market today for 15,003 PP.

#16 on the list Orcin posted on page 3.

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by SayHey1

Thanks for the list! I used it to pick up Cy Blanton off the market today for 15,003 PP.

#16 on the list Orcin posted on page 3.

He's been terrible for me since I bought him.

[GalvestonBaseballGeek]

Originally Posted by daves

This list represents 10 Pitchers I cannot afford. Each one is typically 100,000 PP or more in the auction.

How about the best Pitchers selling for 25,000 or less?

I am with Daves. I'm F2P so I want to know the best values. 25,000 or less. heck, 15,000 or less.

[daves]

Originally Posted by GalvestonBaseballGeek

I am with Daves. I'm F2P so I want to know the best values. 25,000 or less. heck, 15,000 or less.

Yes, some of us are value shoppers.

[rejebebe]

Im relatively new to spreadsheets. How would I enter this formula into same?

[ASURay]

Originally Posted by GalvestonBaseballGeek

I am with Daves. I'm F2P so I want to know the best values. 25,000 or less. heck, 15,000 or less.

25K is tough. Blanton, 94 OVR Clemens, 95 OVR Matt Harvey (the avg is 18K but one just sold today for 40K), 96 Smoltz, 96 Pedro, maybe 96 Greinke (not sure what the price is on that one but it's a good card and might be undervalued).

[Randro]

I think that new Keuchel card (from 2015 NOT the live 2018) is a big value card. According to my numbers it is better than many of the diamonds (like all but a handful) in terms of FIP.

[DonkeyKongSr]

Originally Posted by Randro

I think that new Keuchel card (from 2015 NOT the live 2018) is a big value card. According to my numbers it is better than many of the diamonds (like all but a handful) in terms of FIP.

He has the highest SP Movement in the game (as far as I know) by 12 whole points! You aren't going to take him deep often.

Using the formula above, from my list of 321 SP, I have him ranking #9. He's #15 on my proprietary ranking formula.

I picked him up this morning for my Perfect League team and in 4 games he had a 3.07 ERA (138 ERA+), threw a CGSO, pitched another CG (a loss, though), gave up 0 HRs, accumulated 1.1 WAR, and is second in FIP at 2.51. Somehow he's 1-2, but otherwise he's lived up to the modeling.

[Zorro]

I don’t see the Keyshaw 96 card which is 90-72-88. Where would that put him? Also 96 Keefe which is 101-77-66.

[Zorro]

Originally Posted by Orcin

He's been terrible for me since I bought him.

Yeah, He always sucked for me also...

[Blazinghalo]

Originally Posted by ASURay

Here's the best model I have right now:

FIP_p = 8.661141 - (.01747*STUFF) - (.03291*MOV) - (.01737*CON)

This thread motivated me to update some of my numbers today. This model uses data from all pitchers in my league with at least 500 career IP across any league level. It actually correlates better to Perfect League FIP from last week than the model that uses only PL data. I'm guessing that will change as the amount of PL-only data increases.

This is a list of some of the most commonly seen starters with projected FIP using the above formula.

Name OVR Stuff Mov Con FIP
Pedro Martinez 100 123 82 85 2.3373
Christy Mathewson 96 113 64 88 3.0522
Carl Hubbell 97 93 75 87 3.0570
Kevin Brown 96 87 80 82 3.0841
Spud Chandler 96 84 82 81 3.0881
Roger Clemens 100 98 81 68 3.1022
Randy Johnson 100 118 74 61 3.1048
Dallas Keuchel 86 69 96 67 3.1326
Walter Johnson 96 97 72 81 3.1901
Clayton Kershaw 96 90 72 88 3.1908
Matt Harvey 95 84 79 80 3.2042
Tim Keefe 96 101 77 66 3.2162
Dwight Gooden 97 105 73 69 3.2258
Bob Feller 100 126 70 49 3.3051
Bert Blyleven 93 93 70 80 3.3431
John Smoltz 96 98 67 77 3.4066
Pedro Martinez 96 109 67 65 3.4229
Bob Gibson 93 84 80 65 3.4318
Chris Sale 100 103 65 74 3.4372
Bob Gibson 94 87 74 73 3.4379
Mike Scott 96 109 64 69 3.4521
Pete Alexander 93 75 72 88 3.4528
Tom Seaver 100 107 62 74 3.4661
Jacob deGrom 100 91 72 71 3.4686
Christy Mathewson 95 90 65 85 3.4732
Greg Maddux 91 76 80 69 3.5021
Carl Hubbell 91 70 75 83 3.5283
Tim Lincecum 93 99 77 49 3.5464
Dizzy Trout 91 62 81 78 3.5574
Gary Peters 90 75 83 58 3.6119
Warren Spahn 92 77 74 73 3.6126
Dizzy Dean 94 100 61 73 3.6386
Brett Saberhagen 91 74 64 92 3.6641
Noah Syndergaard 98 80 73 68 3.6800
Don Drysdale 90 68 74 78 3.6830
Clayton Kershaw 92 76 75 68 3.6840
Mordecai Brown 91 78 76 64 3.6856
David Cone 93 95 73 52 3.6958
Dizzy Dean 88 50 76 91 3.7058
Cliff Lee 91 82 65 79 3.7172
Don Sutton 90 89 62 76 3.7458
Bob Gibson 91 83 65 73 3.8040
Whitey Ford 89 65 75 69 3.8588
Gaylord Perry 89 70 68 77 3.8629
Len Barker 78 94 64 60 3.8705
Roy Halladay 89 68 62 89 3.8868
Phil Niekro 91 86 67 61 3.8942
Jose Fernandez 91 104 60 56 3.8969
Clayton Kershaw 99 86 55 82 3.9243
Larry Dierker 83 75 64 76 3.9245
Stephen Strasburg 89 87 65 61 3.9425
Robin Roberts 90 77 56 88 3.9444
Tom Seaver 90 85 60 72 3.9510
Dennis Martinez 72 53 80 66 3.9560
Patrick Corbin 89 84 62 66 4.0068
Fred Newman 79 40 77 81 4.0213
Max Scherzer 97 99 52 67 4.0565
Dick Ellsworth 88 63 72 64 4.0793
Luis Severino 93 85 58 68 4.0863
Elmer Riddle 84 58 71 70 4.0954
Phil Niekro 89 75 59 75 4.1065
Roy Oswalt 85 60 70 69 4.1107
Aaron Nola 92 77 64 63 4.1154
Tom Glavine 88 76 61 67 4.1621
Warren Spahn 87 65 65 70 4.1705
Corey Kluber 96 78 52 81 4.1802
Carlos Martinez 80 74 74 43 4.1861
Justin Verlander 96 95 45 75 4.2178
Bob Ojeda 71 64 63 72 4.2191
Gerritt Cole 93 93 56 56 4.2208
Bob Gibson 88 80 60 61 4.2294
Gaylord Perry 82 64 61 74 4.2502
Jon Matlack 86 67 60 70 4.3002
A.J. Puk 75 84 58 56 4.3122
Craig Swan 71 67 54 80 4.3239
Curt Schilling 89 95 36 85 4.3403
Zack Wheeler 85 79 60 55 4.3511
Jim Abbott 70 62 63 65 4.3756
Alex Wood 78 64 60 67 4.4047
Kyle Freeland 79 66 65 54 4.4310
Luis Tiant 88 100 45 54 4.4952
Juan Marichal 79 72 33 88 4.7887