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Old 01-25-2020, 08:21 PM   #1
Andy
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League Total Woes In Fictional League

I can’t seem to get realistic modern day stats in fictional leagues. I’ve tried setting 2018 as the year right before opening day for the modifiers, but still off. I’ll either get some crazy offensive stats or pitchers pitching way too many innings. I’ve tried messing with the starting pitching hook, but still can’t find the sweet spot. I’ve tried just starting the league and jumping right in and also simming out 20 years and starting that way. Also tried copying all the stats, modifiers and the pitcher hook settings from the MLB quickstart and that was no good. Pitchers seem to top out about 15 or 16 wins, maybe 2 or 3 over 200 innings and strikeout numbers are low. No matter what I do it doesn’t match up with modern day numbers.
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Old 01-26-2020, 08:19 AM   #2
Mat
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Pitchers seem to top out about 15 or 16 wins, maybe 2 or 3 over 200 innings and strikeout numbers are low. No matter what I do it doesn’t match up with modern day numbers.
This is very close. What were you expecting to see?
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Old 01-26-2020, 08:57 AM   #3
Andy
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This is very close. What were you expecting to see?
There were 18 pitchers over 200 innings in 2019 and in 2018 there were 17 so I was hoping for that rather than 2 or 3. Anyway I tried leaving it at the default and got better results. Stolen base leaders are still a little low, but I’ll just deal with it.

Actually, stolen bases aren’t really that far off after looking at the leaders last year.

Last edited by Andy; 01-26-2020 at 09:01 AM.
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Old 01-26-2020, 09:17 AM   #4
David Watts
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There were 18 pitchers over 200 innings in 2019 and in 2018 there were 17 so I was hoping for that rather than 2 or 3. Anyway I tried leaving it at the default and got better results. Stolen base leaders are still a little low, but I’ll just deal with it.

Actually, stolen bases aren’t really that far off after looking at the leaders last year.
When you say strikeouts are low, do mean overall, or are talking about starting pitcher strikeouts?
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Old 01-26-2020, 09:40 AM   #5
Andy
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When you say strikeouts are low, do mean overall, or are talking about starting pitcher strikeouts?
Starting pitchers. I admit to not really diving deep into it, but just comparing the leaders of a completed season between the MLB quickstart and the leaders of the fictional league. With the MLB league the leader would be around 12 K/9 and a bunch over 10. With the fictional league I might get one over 10 K/9 and a few over 9. Like I said though, I do seem to be getting numbers just leaving everything default and not using 2018 as my year for the modifiers.
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Old 01-26-2020, 01:08 PM   #6
David Watts
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Starting pitchers. I admit to not really diving deep into it, but just comparing the leaders of a completed season between the MLB quickstart and the leaders of the fictional league. With the MLB league the leader would be around 12 K/9 and a bunch over 10. With the fictional league I might get one over 10 K/9 and a few over 9. Like I said though, I do seem to be getting numbers just leaving everything default and not using 2018 as my year for the modifiers.
Check out relief pitchers. I bet their k/9 numbers are through the roof.
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Old 01-30-2020, 12:01 PM   #7
Andy
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I think I might have everything figured out now. If I use the 2018 modifiers then I get good numbers across the board except for starters' innings. I noticed it has the hook at -4 and the stamina is very low. I looked at the MLB quickstart and it has the stamina modifier set at 1.138, hook at -2 and stamina is the same at very low. If I change the modifier and the hook then things seem to look pretty good.
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Old 02-01-2020, 10:09 AM   #8
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Still not perfect. The innings pitched leaders and complete game leaders are good, but it seems like a lot of different pitchers pitched complete games. I had 90 complete games in my test league compared to 42 in 2018. I ran a test sim with all default settings and there were over 100 complete games so it’s not just with fictional leagues. In my fictional league I took the stamina down to 1.000 from 1.138 and ended up with 13 total complete games so that was a huge difference. I think I’m just going to leave it at the 1.138. It’s good enough and I don’t want to mess with it anymore. Just want to enjoy my league.
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Old 02-06-2020, 07:17 PM   #9
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are you familiar with non-fiction leagues?

import a year you usually use with results you usually like. or, use the default for a normal non-fiction out of the box etc etc... make your own where thenumbers add up to a slash you want etc etc (must add up in other ways, so only do this last option if you understand it is all part of the same whole, so sf and such would have to equate properly)

make sure to autocalculate the modifiers on opening day or the day before -- the key here is before any gamess are played. The button is only visible in preseason, possibly ST only.

i recommend waiting until the beginning of the year so that the 40-man rosters are set for opening day when i click that autocalculate button, since it is callibrating things, i want hte players who will play to be considered. there's a good arguement for doing it sooner too... i'd agree if a bunch of catstrophic injuries occured i'd rather have the modifiers set before that happens, but how much of that to outweigh unset 40-man rosters? i think teams are usually better on opening day than day one of ST.

one other thing to consider after this... sometimes adding a bit more offense creates greater stratification amongst your pitchers. Even though it is a more offensive league, you can see better performances than previously out of your better pitchers.

obviously, bumping offensive numbers spreads out the batters more too, and if you bump it up too far, it will eventually be a very negative impact on all pitchers.

i'd shoot for a modern era league to have a rough ERA of 4.3-4.5. you push 4.5 with 30 teams and you likely have one of the better offensive seasons ever recorded. 4.10-4.20 will be the likely outcome of most recent imported years, with more recent years approaching 4.3-4.5 range out of the box, if i recall. (important to note i speak of the entire league, not half. that drastically impacts volatility of what you see each year)

also, autocalc merely makes the current context average out to your Totals in proportion to your league. where the league stands in all ways you can quantify distribution in that current context will dictate what happens next... if you see stats only rise, you knwo it was a low-talent year. if it only goes down, it was a high talent year. a good ebb and flow and you luckily hit a good middle point.

that's quite simplified. each total:modifier is relative to this. long story short, you'll likely want ot make small adjustments over time to individual modifiers until you find a good equillibrium yoe like even after this initial callibration, but they won't be huge changes needed at any time, because you will be in the ballpark to start. if you see somethign dip too high or too low for entire league and entire season, go make a small adjustment to that modifier. change the mod by 10% and the result given the same inputs will change 10%. simple as that. if adjusting and extreme, don't try to make up the entire amount. shoot for 1/2.

also, if changing more than 1 mod, it gets difficult to calculate/predict impact. e.g. decreasing HR will likely increase BABIP. that's a horrible example relative to 165k AB, but you get the idea if you also were adjusting babip or maybe due to that change a slight adjustment to babip would be warranted (as in outcomes that impact babip, not the babip "value" on that page, in this case.. not sure what that does, but probably best to put it where you want it and leave it, lol)

within a short time you won't be touching modifiers unless you change your league. certain settings, adding teams, etc... could require a new autocalculate and ensuing process.

Last edited by NoOne; 02-06-2020 at 07:32 PM.
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