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OOTP 20 - General Discussions Everything about the newest version of Out of the Park Baseball - officially licensed by MLB.com and the MLBPA. |
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11-06-2019, 11:34 AM | #21 |
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WAR? Good god. What is it good for?
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11-06-2019, 11:35 AM | #22 |
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OK, now I want to watch Rush Hour again!
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11-06-2019, 01:06 PM | #23 | |
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Quote:
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My corrected FaceGen IDs .zip file here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1oRd...usp=share_link OOTP post re-FG IDs here: https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...postcount=3198 My DB which restores Fed Leaguers here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ZoN...B2GCcULxt/view Instructions for the DB: https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...07&postcount=9 |
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11-06-2019, 01:16 PM | #24 | |
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Andruw Jones should have definitely got in, and maybe Kenny Lofton as well. And both of those guys could hit well enough too. |
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11-06-2019, 02:23 PM | #25 | |
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My corrected FaceGen IDs .zip file here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1oRd...usp=share_link OOTP post re-FG IDs here: https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...postcount=3198 My DB which restores Fed Leaguers here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ZoN...B2GCcULxt/view Instructions for the DB: https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...07&postcount=9 |
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11-06-2019, 02:24 PM | #26 | |
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Quote:
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My corrected FaceGen IDs .zip file here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1oRd...usp=share_link OOTP post re-FG IDs here: https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...postcount=3198 My DB which restores Fed Leaguers here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ZoN...B2GCcULxt/view Instructions for the DB: https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...07&postcount=9 |
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11-06-2019, 04:17 PM | #27 |
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11-06-2019, 05:35 PM | #28 |
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How about Whitaker. 75 WAR for his career. Still might not get in.
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11-06-2019, 05:52 PM | #29 |
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Join Date: Jan 2019
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Graig Nettles
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11-06-2019, 06:34 PM | #30 |
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Did a quick (well, should have been quick, but pulling the data from OOTP was a bit tedious) check of WAR to wins using OOTP 19.
Following the analysis here https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/20...ird-order-wins Which showed a best-fit line of y=1.06x-4.61 and an r-squared of .86 This means, first, that FanGraphs' WAR very accurately correlates to actual wins. One WAR almost exactly equals one real world win. A team with 100 (x) wins would be expected to win [(1.06*100)-4.61] 101.39 games. And that WAR explains 86% of the variance in actual wins. Ideally, looking at OOTP's WAR would reveal similar results. The actual results were...mixed. Using a quickstart of the 2018 season, simming the entire season, and comparing actual team wins to WAR I got the following. The line of best-fit was y=.82x+14.9 with an r-squared of .85. This is not as good as the real-life WAR model. First, I've had some doubts about the replacement level in OOTP. This analysis suggests that the replacement level in OOTP is lower than that used by FanGraphs. FanGraphs' WAR sets replacement level at about 48 wins. This analysis shows that OOTP's replacement level is closer to 33 wins (47.6 - 14.9). That's fine. But, a difference to note. Secondly, the ideal slope of the line should be 1.0. Meaning that 1 WAR is exactly equal to 1 real win. FanGraphs' WAR in the linked analysis had a slope of 1.06. Pretty close to 1 to 1. OOTP's WAR had a slope of .82. Not nearly as close. As shown above, using FanGraphs' WAR a team with 100 WAR would be expected to have 101 in real life wins. Using OOTP's WAR a team with 100 WAR would only be expected to have [(.82*100)+14.9] 96.9 wins. OOTP's WAR doesn't seem to be as accurate as FanGraphs' version. Which is weird since FanGraphs' has to rely on imperfect data (especially for, like, defense) whereas OOTP should have perfect data (that they may disguise a bit to create that ambiguity. Maybe they've overdone it.). The r-squared for the season was .85 which is, for all intents and purposes, the same as the .86 for FanGraphs' WAR. Takeaway. OOTP's WAR is useful. And does correlate well with actual wins, though it seems to be less precise than FanGraphs' WAR. The biggest difference is in replacement level. Which means that OOTP players will have higher WAR than their real life counterparts. |
11-06-2019, 06:48 PM | #31 |
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I love your enthusiasm for math CB. Of course WAR in OOTP is useful, like all stats are. What's important is how you use them to generate success.
"Using WAR properly is difficult because it requires you to think more abstractly than some other aspects of life. The exact number is not as important as the basic range, but this isn’t just true of WAR. This is the case with all statistics in all parts of the game." - FanGraphs |
11-06-2019, 07:45 PM | #32 |
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Absolutely, positively 1,000% yes.
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My corrected FaceGen IDs .zip file here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1oRd...usp=share_link OOTP post re-FG IDs here: https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...postcount=3198 My DB which restores Fed Leaguers here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ZoN...B2GCcULxt/view Instructions for the DB: https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...07&postcount=9 |
11-06-2019, 07:51 PM | #33 |
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Yessir. There are a ton of 3B getting shafted because nobody believes defense means anything at 3B, and they're dead wrong. Scott Rolen, your guy, and even Ken Boyer, and Sal Bando should get another look.
EDIT: Buddy Bell too.
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My corrected FaceGen IDs .zip file here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1oRd...usp=share_link OOTP post re-FG IDs here: https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...postcount=3198 My DB which restores Fed Leaguers here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ZoN...B2GCcULxt/view Instructions for the DB: https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...07&postcount=9 |
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