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Old 11-29-2011, 07:37 PM   #1
Zarberg
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What exactly does "Scouting accuracy" mean?

Is there a percentage each of the 5 different settings means? We have:

very low
low
average
high
very high

Is there a margin of error assigned to each of these? Can anyone offer anecdotal evidence of how hit-and-miss the settings are?
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Old 11-30-2011, 01:22 AM   #2
Zarberg
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Anyone? Beuller? Bueller?
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Old 11-30-2011, 12:11 PM   #3
Qwerty75
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I won't speculate about any %s of error each setting represents. One thing to note is that your scouting director won't be uniformly wrong by a certain amount for every player; he'll be very accurate on some and far off on others.

I recently switched from High to Normal/Average, and I don't really perceive a difference. Then again, I mostly pay attention to the players in my own organization, for whom scouting is most accurate.
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Old 11-30-2011, 06:15 PM   #4
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Really hard to say because you budget affects this as well. It could be fun to test but it would take time. So that scouting reports don't have the times scouted factor built in. You would essentially have to save a backup or quickstart and note the differences in scouting on several different players with different scouts and compare them to true values. Could be done but it is some work.
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Old 11-30-2011, 06:49 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zarberg View Post
Can anyone offer anecdotal evidence of how hit-and-miss the settings are?
I have played the same season a few times with normal/average scouting and the same budget dollars. I found:

- my scout says player A is really good every time, and he never is
- my scout says player B is really good once and a scrub every other time, and he was a scrub
- my scout says player C is mediocre, and he was except one time he was much better

So I think it is really hit-or-miss, and also the development "chance" is a factor. Maybe he gets it right but the player over-performs too. In summary, I really like the fact that I can't figure it out.
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Old 12-21-2011, 03:26 PM   #6
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I would recommend using "very high" accuracy. This is because the Baseball America reports for both prospect and player rankings use the "true" ratings of each player.
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Old 12-21-2011, 04:00 PM   #7
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oh..and one more reason is because if you allow the AI manager on your team to set lineups and depth charts, it's fairly easy to see weather or not a prospect/young player is any good or not. You can tell by the way (or not) the AI will play them. If you go out and get (what you and your scout think) a great young pitching prospect, and then put him on the active roster only to have the AI manager refuse to put him in the rotation because it thinks a reliever is actually better suited, you can guess the player is a dud. I sometimes even wonder if the manager/staff strategy preferences are even taken into consideration when the AI chooses a lineup. Perhaps that is why the AI is better in this version when it comes to choosing lineups...it doesn't use them...although if true, this takes away a lot of immersion, and the feeling that each manager is different with unique attributes.
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Old 12-25-2011, 04:49 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by PSUColonel View Post
oh..and one more reason is because if you allow the AI manager on your team to set lineups and depth charts, it's fairly easy to see weather or not a prospect/young player is any good or not. You can tell by the way (or not) the AI will play them. If you go out and get (what you and your scout think) a great young pitching prospect, and then put him on the active roster only to have the AI manager refuse to put him in the rotation because it thinks a reliever is actually better suited, you can guess the player is a dud. I sometimes even wonder if the manager/staff strategy preferences are even taken into consideration when the AI chooses a lineup. Perhaps that is why the AI is better in this version when it comes to choosing lineups...it doesn't use them...although if true, this takes away a lot of immersion, and the feeling that each manager is different with unique attributes.
In my experience, the manager strategy settings do have an effect.

On one AI team, I observed that management promoted the top pitching prospect in the game (20 yrs. old, 1st pick in the draft) to the ML bullpen to fill a hole in the pitching staff when the closer went down to injury. The organization had pitchers with higher current ratings to promote, but they went with the hotshot prospect instead, and he's now in the rotation (in late May) and walking a ton of batters, but getting by with an ERA in the high 4.00s. The GM's roster strategy preference between veterans and prospects is tilted on the extreme towards prospects, which explains the decision to push the prospect faster than may be prudent. Other examples on the same team: 1) young LFer with good potentials and high current power is starting even when struggling with a sub-.700 OPS over a veteran with good CON and defense; 2) young UT IF prospect has been promoted to the starting lineup at SS despite the Positional Strength report and the Star ratings ranking another SS higher.

The GM for this team is an extreme case, which makes it easier to match specific personnel decisions to the strategy setting. Perhaps there isn't enough granularity in the middle of the spectrum, so that you don't see a difference except at the extremes. I haven't looked at enough examples to comment on this possibility, but to say the manager strategy settings aren't taken into consideration at all is off base.
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Old 12-25-2011, 11:51 PM   #9
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good to know!! thanks.
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Old 12-27-2011, 02:49 PM   #10
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What I do in the name of "fun" is I turn off all ability to view current ratings, period (okay, I do leave on the speed and fielding numbers), set potentials to 2-8, and then set those to "very low" scouting accuracy. Yes, that means that sometimes scouts can be way off on a guy. I like having to decide whether a guy who is hitting .400 in AA is doing so because he's too old for the league or is getting lucky or if he's really worth those numbers. PSUColonel is right about the Baseball America ratings... so I just ignore that report.

Personally I'd like to see those replaced by a separate scouting combine/system which proves really bad and really variable commentary on guys (because this should represent the baseline that everyone including casual fans have access to) wherein you could a. be cheap on your own scouting at your own peril and b. compare your own ratings on a kid you're iffy about with those of the combine/ratings system just to get a 2nd (potentially poor) opinion. I can imagine that those who already don't like the "fog of war" that scouting provides would seriously not like this at all, but... scorew those people, right?

So that's the deal for me... scouting is a way to introduce a little more uncertainty into the game. We already don't know whether or not a 1.5/5 guy is ever going to get to 5 stars, and that's enough for some people. I want to sometimes have no idea whether a guy has that 5 star potential in the first place.
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Old 12-27-2011, 02:59 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Syd Thrift View Post
What I do in the name of "fun" is I turn off all ability to view current ratings, period (okay, I do leave on the speed and fielding numbers), set potentials to 2-8, and then set those to "very low" scouting accuracy. Yes, that means that sometimes scouts can be way off on a guy. I like having to decide whether a guy who is hitting .400 in AA is doing so because he's too old for the league or is getting lucky or if he's really worth those numbers. PSUColonel is right about the Baseball America ratings... so I just ignore that report.

Personally I'd like to see those replaced by a separate scouting combine/system which proves really bad and really variable commentary on guys (because this should represent the baseline that everyone including casual fans have access to) wherein you could a. be cheap on your own scouting at your own peril and b. compare your own ratings on a kid you're iffy about with those of the combine/ratings system just to get a 2nd (potentially poor) opinion. I can imagine that those who already don't like the "fog of war" that scouting provides would seriously not like this at all, but... scorew those people, right?

So that's the deal for me... scouting is a way to introduce a little more uncertainty into the game. We already don't know whether or not a 1.5/5 guy is ever going to get to 5 stars, and that's enough for some people. I want to sometimes have no idea whether a guy has that 5 star potential in the first place.

Well said
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