What are your thoughts on guys like this??

[falkonisback]

For instance, Adam Dunn in my league. What are you guys' thoughts on him getting into the hall of fame? He retired with a career .243 avg, 1933 hits, but 503 hrs....Do guys like this deserve to get into the hall of fame just b/c he has 500+ hrs? I mean, would he be a HOFer in real life with stats like this?

Also, he was only an all-star twice and has no gold gloves and no world series rings.

I hate seeing guys like this b/c I'm always torn as to whether or not to induct them into HOF based only on their hr total.

[da commish]

I would not vote him in with just barely over 500 HR considering his other mediocre stats. I adjust the automatic HR qualifier to 550 or more in my leagues just to avoid someone with these kind of stats slipping into the HOF.

[edm]

Maybe 20 years ago. But no way he would make the HOF now.

[PhillieFever]

Adam Dunn to me is in the class with guys like Dave Kingman, Cecil Fielder, and the like, and does not belong in the Hall Of Fame.

[Malleus Dei]

Originally Posted by PhillieFever

Adam Dunn to me is in the class with guys like Dave Kingman, Cecil Fielder, and the like, and does not belong in the Hall Of Fame.

I agree completely.

[Chicagofan76]

he isnt a 1st ballot Hall Of Famer,,,let the veterens committee vote him in 15 yrs from now when no one remembers that he never played on a world series team.....for my ABF and EBL leagues i vote if needed teh 1st ballot HOF ers in and then look at players every 10 yrs if they r border line.....no one currently in the Real HOF has that bad of a avg with 500 hrs (i think)

[Lucas718]

I set the automatic qualifiers in the game ridiculously high so that no one gets in unless I put them in. I usually look at a player's entire body of work. 500 HRs is nice, but what do his other numbers look like?

In general, I want a Hall of Fame hitter to have at least 3 of these:

• 2500 Hits
• 500 HRs
• 1500 Runs
• 1500 RBI
• .300 Avg

For guys who don't have 3 of those, I also look at other things like MVPs, All Star appearances, Gold Gloves, SBs, and their career VORP... basically all their stats to see if there is something noteworthy there.

Pitchers are more of a judgment call for me, but generally 3 of these will get a guy in:

• 250 Wins
• 2500 K
• 3.50 ERA or less
• 500 Saves

Cy Youngs, All Stars, Pitcher of the Month, career VORP all help borderline cases.

[1998 Yankees]

Originally Posted by falkonisback

For instance, Adam Dunn in my league. What are you guys' thoughts on him getting into the hall of fame? He retired with a career .243 avg, 1933 hits, but 503 hrs....Do guys like this deserve to get into the hall of fame just b/c he has 500+ hrs? I mean, would he be a HOFer in real life with stats like this?

Also, he was only an all-star twice and has no gold gloves and no world series rings.

I hate seeing guys like this b/c I'm always torn as to whether or not to induct them into HOF based only on their hr total.

I took a snapshot of players around the 500 mark in career home runs - see the first screen print. Then I compiled a spreadsheet, the second screen print, of some traditional statistics that I would look at, including career strikeouts. I recorded "My Vote" for the Hall of Fame as "Yes," "Maybe," and "No." Notice that I was not sure about three players who are already in the Hall of Fame!

This was my thinking, and note that I don't talk about certain intangibles such as championships, awards, and defensive skill:

• Good (outstanding = green): high batting average, at least 2,500 hits, at least 1,500 RBIs, and low strikeouts or a healthy margin of hits over strikeouts.
• Bad (outstanding = red): low batting average, less than 2,500 hits and 1,500 RBI's, and a high number of strikeouts.

The only guy who is still active on this list is Delgado, and I think at this late stage of his career his hits are too low and strikeouts too high. He got bad marks on both aspects but still I gave him "Maybe" because he is not done yet.

Interesting, I thought, are the four guys without any outstanding numbers (again, in this analysis), meaning they don't stick out in any aspect. Yet, I had no trouble: Two are "Yes" and two are "Maybe."

Here, the two "Yes" guys make it because they are 500+ HR which, to me, is still a benchmark of wonder. It's just not an automatic ticket to the HoF any more, as other posters have said. More like a tiebreaker of sorts now, just one of other important criteria to look at if HoF worthiness is in doubt. Certainly no longer an automatic ticket to "Cooperstown," no.

Well, back to your question. Your "Adam Dunn" does not even approach Canseco and Kingman status, despite having just made it over the 500 HR line. His batting average is not there, nor are his hits. Since you did not give his final RBI's and strikeouts, I took your hits number and projected the other two stats. It's mixing OOTP and reality, but in real life Dunn already has 1,578 SO at age 30. Your hits to his current real hits (1,215), times his current SO, projects to over 2,500 career strikeouts. Hall of Fame? No way!

[exitonly]

Your comparison would be better of if you used some better metrics, Bagwell was excellent defensively at 1b for 14 years to go along with crushing at the plate, even with his shorter career he's just as worthy as Stargell or McGriff or even clear HOF'rs like Frank Thomas or Eddie Murray. And if you don't count defense, then Dunn's case looks way way better. using BA cherry picks against Dunn's (and some others on the list) skillset, the man draws a ton of walks. Switch BA to wOBA and it'll paint a different picture. Not saying it'll make him better than Gehrig, or even put him in the hall considering his just putrid defense but displaying his .243 BA doesn't do him justice. WAR doesn't either, as if he had simply been used as a DH his whole career he'd have been like 10+ wins more valuable to his team.

a couple interesting graphs:
WAR Graphs | FanGraphs Baseball

does the 4 extra years of slightly above replacement level really make up for bagwell's 10 years of superior prime years?

[1998 Yankees]

Originally Posted by exitonly

Your comparison would be better of if you used some better metrics, Bagwell was excellent defensively at 1b for 14 years to go along with crushing at the plate, even with his shorter career he's just as worthy as Stargell or McGriff or even clear HOF'rs like Frank Thomas or Eddie Murray. And if you don't count defense, then Dunn's case looks way way better. using BA cherry picks against Dunn's (and some others on the list) skillset, the man draws a ton of walks. Switch BA to wOBA and it'll paint a different picture. Not saying it'll make him better than Gehrig, or even put him in the hall considering his just putrid defense but displaying his .243 BA doesn't do him justice. WAR doesn't either, as if he had simply been used as a DH his whole career he'd have been like 10+ wins more valuable to his team.

a couple interesting graphs:
WAR Graphs | FanGraphs Baseball

does the 4 extra years of slightly above replacement level really make up for bagwell's 10 years of superior prime years?

You, uh, wouldn't be from the Houston area, would you? I thought I might hear from a Houston fan or two when I eliminated Bagwell.

No argument on Bagwell. Recall from my post that I did not include "certain intangibles such as championships, awards, and defensive skill." For example, I agree with Luis Aparacio being in the Hall, although he would have red font for some of these numbers in my analysis: .262 BA, 2,677 hits, 791 RBI's, 742 strikeouts (I love the hits to strikeouts ratio, though). Aparacio's glovework got him into the Hall.

Remember, however, that falkonisback is playing a game and may be looking for a quick way of evaluating a fictional player. Moreover, he was basing his query on whether career HR's alone are appropriate to qualify a player for his imaginary Hall of Fame. Since the game is based on reality, I brought some of that into the analysis and I concentrated on offensive statistics due to the type of player involved.

You do not convince me on Dunn for the Hall of Fame, be it virtual or real. That could be due to my aversion for newfangled statistics like wOBA and WAR. Be those as they are, there is no way Dunn belongs in any Hall of Fame, virtual or real, if he ends up with the traditional offensive statistics that falkonisback mentions or that I projected for him.

[JJ Boston]

He isn't the type of player I'd vote for, but I wouldn't complain if he made it, especially if he maintained his high OBP and remained skilled defensively.

[Left-handed Badger]

Originally Posted by Chicagofan76

he isnt a 1st ballot Hall Of Famer,,,let the veterens committee vote him in 15 yrs from now when no one remembers that he never played on a world series team.....for my ABF and EBL leagues i vote if needed teh 1st ballot HOF ers in and then look at players every 10 yrs if they r border line.....no one currently in the Real HOF has that bad of a avg with 500 hrs (i think)

I believe the worst BA in the Hall is Ray Schalk's .253. And he got in because of defensive rep (and most nowaday argue that he didnt deserve to be in). Adam Dunn doesnt exactly have (positive) defensive rep.

Having said that, if Adam Dunn were to have won a few Gold Gloves that might put him over the top. As unlike Kingman, Dunn does have an impressive OBP.

[1998 Yankees]

Originally Posted by Left-handed Badger

I believe the worst BA in the Hall is Ray Schalk's .253. And he got in because of defensive rep (and most nowaday argue that he didnt deserve to be in). Adam Dunn doesnt exactly have (positive) defensive rep.

Having said that, if Adam Dunn were to have won a few Gold Gloves that might put him over the top. As unlike Kingman, Dunn does have an impressive OBP.

Yah, walks count as much as singles in total bases. Also, runs scored is another stat I might have used to reflect true offensive player contributions over time.

[exitonly]

Don't get me wrong, I don't think Dunn Dunn belongs in the HOF (unless he defies his skillset and has ~10 more years of the same stats with no decline), but if i were to present his case i wouldn't be listing BA, Total Hits, and Strikeouts. and just listing those isnt really a case against him - it's cherry picking stats that pretty much only measure his contact rate. he's as or more valuable at the plate than half of the players on that list. edit: eh, a little less than half of them.

and nope from NJ.

[thklein]

I think Hall of Fame selection is one of the areas of the game that could be most improved. I posted a comment about this in the suggestions part of the forum. There are plenty of more sophisticated formulas that exist to measure Hall of Fame credentials than merely setting milestones.

To answer the original question, I don't think Dunn would get in if those were his numbers. I don't think 500 HRs holds the same sway as it once did with Hall voters. I especially don't think he would get in if he spent a significant amount of time DHing.

[edm]

Originally Posted by Lucas718

I set the automatic qualifiers in the game ridiculously high so that no one gets in unless I put them in. I usually look at a player's entire body of work. 500 HRs is nice, but what do his other numbers look like?

In general, I want a Hall of Fame hitter to have at least 3 of these:

• 2500 Hits
• 500 HRs
• 1500 Runs
• 1500 RBI
• .300 Avg

For guys who don't have 3 of those, I also look at other things like MVPs, All Star appearances, Gold Gloves, SBs, and their career VORP... basically all their stats to see if there is something noteworthy there.

Pitchers are more of a judgment call for me, but generally 3 of these will get a guy in:

• 250 Wins
• 2500 K
• 3.50 ERA or less
• 500 Saves

Cy Youngs, All Stars, Pitcher of the Month, career VORP all help borderline cases.

Yeah I do the same. I really wish there were an option to have the game just notify us by email (instead of auto inducting) when a player reaches a qualifier. then we could leave the qualifiers at default, but still have the final decision on whether a player gets inducted of not.

[Tram2Whitaker]

Here's one. Evan Longoria has hung around 3 seasons past his usefulness, in order to get his 3000th hit and 600th home run. In doing so, he's set the career record for strikeouts (2,656; with 500 in those 3 seasons). He's still hanging out in the free agent pool at 42 years old, waiting for someone to pick him up, so he can get those last 3 hits and 4 home runs.

Would you think that players that hang on like that hurt their chances at the HOF? (his career is .297, but his last 3 seasons are .265, .243, and .222)

[Chicagofan76]

Dave Winfield, Cal Ripken Jr., Ken Griffey Jr., Babe Ruth, Mickey Mantle, Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson ?, Ivan Rodriguez...ok so maybe not the last 2 but the rest all played 2-4 more season then they should have. Ruth being the worst on that list. i could name more but it would be long....playing too long and setting unpositive records is just the name of the game. but they r all truly HOF ers also dont forget MJ and Farve. Gretsky.Lawerence Taylor and the worst offender of all Emmitt Smith.

[da commish]

Originally Posted by Chicagofan76

also dont forget MJ and Farve.

I don't think you can include Favre in that group that has stayed too long considering last year was one of his best years ever.

[ink625]

What does everyone think of Barry Larkin's case for the HOF? He is my all-time favorite player.

Hits- 2340
HR- 198
RBI- 960
SB- 379 at an 83% success rate
Runs-1329
BB- 939
K- 817
OBP-.371

Roberto Clemente Award
Lou Gehrig Award
12-time All-Star
3- Gold Gloves
9- Silver Sluggers
1- World Series Championship
1- N.L. MVP(1995)
First ever 30-30 SS