Managerial Decision in Elimination Game

mpbaseball22 · 01-25-2016, 01:21 PM

Here is the situation:

Playoff series. Elimination game. Jose Fernandez won Cy Young this year and had an ERA in the 1.70 range. Next best pitcher was good too, with an ERA around 2.5

As you can see, bases are loaded with no outs and Fernandez hitting. Bottom of the 4th, Fernandez has thrown 50 pitches. Given that this is an elimination game, whats your call in this spot? If you take him out, you are taking the game out of the hands of the Cy Young + MVP. But risk a rally killing double play. If you take him out now at only 50 pitches he may even be ready for the next series opening game. What move do you make here?

I chose to pinch hit for him. Ended up getting a fly out, then a sac fly, then a fly out to end the inning. Won the game 3-2. Probably the hardest managerial decision ive had to make in OOTP.

Westheim · 01-25-2016, 01:30 PM

He stays in. You have a lead, and it's only the fourth inning. The chances that the bullpen dicks up more runs compared to him pitching another three or four innings are probably higher than the extra runs a pinch-hitter generates.

DB930 · 01-25-2016, 01:51 PM

Leave him in. Too early to lift a SP--especially a Cy Young-winning SP--unless he's been scuffling in the first 4 innings. You already have the lead, so you have a better chance of letting Fernandez try to hold that and tack on a couple of more runs later than you do of depending on your bullpen to get 15 outs without coughing up the lead somewhere along the way.

rjl518 · 01-25-2016, 04:44 PM

NL managers have to deal with this type of situation all the time...i think many of them would keep Fernandez in the game.
So in that regard...keeping him in is what i would do.
Ill bet AL managers are happy that they only have to deal with these kind of things at NL ballparks...
Darn DH Rule!!!

JMDurron · 01-25-2016, 07:01 PM

I generally try to mitigate the risk of pitcher-hitting GIDPs by bunting. A strikeout on a foul bunt is better than a ground ball, and a hit is highly improbable in this situation.

BIG17EASY · 01-25-2016, 07:17 PM

To me, this is a no-brainer -- he stays in the game. You don't pull your ace (who is arguably the best pitcher in the game) in the 4th inning of an elimination with a 1-0 lead unless he's hurt.

Bowtie · 01-25-2016, 07:54 PM

I noticed that you chose to pinch hit for Fernandez. That - imho - is a huge roll of the dice. You got lucky this time that your team held on to win the game.

I too would have chosen to leave him in. He gives you a much better chance of winning the game. Besides, he had only surrendered 2 hits over 4 innings. Just taking things as is, Fernandez was poised to give you at least 6 or 7 innings of quality pitching. That's what you want in an elimination game.

Also, this may sound silly to some but I would have had Fernandez to bunt in order to further help protect him from an injury. Who cares if he's out at first. That's just the first out of the inning. If he's batting in the number 9 spot, you have the top of the order coming up and a better chance of keeping the rally going. His pitching is far more valuable than to risk him getting injured trying to get a hit.

DB930 · 01-25-2016, 08:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rjl518

NL managers have to deal with this type of situation all the time...i think ALL of them would keep Fernandez in the game.

FTFY.

I didn't want to be the first one to use the term "no-brainer", but I think that's what this is. IRL, at least. No real-life ML manager is going to pull his Cy Young-winner (who's cruising up to that point) in the 4th inning for a PH. You send him up there, and just live with whatever the results are (and hold your breath and hope he doesn't get hurt swinging a bat or running the bases, which is always a possibility). It's an automatic call, same as 95% of all the situations involving pitchers at the plate, which is why NL "strategy" is so overrated.

Now if this had been a 1-0 game in the 6th or 7th, and there were already 1 or 2 outs when his spot comes up, that's a different story, and probably falls into the 5% of times where a manager actually has a semi-difficult decision to make. But even then, when it's your ace (one of the best pitchers in baseball) and you have the lead already, it's still close to being an automatic "leave him in"... just like it's an automatic "take him out" if you're behind. The only situations where I'd call it a legitimately difficult call would be if the game is tied, or if the pitcher involved is your #3 or 4, who's pitched great so far but you don't necessarily trust him to continue it for another inning or 2.

Long live the DH.

(BTW, none of this is criticism of the OP. You can make calls and take chances like this in a videogame, and have fun debating it afterward. I've done some really unconventional things, too--more than once. This is just a response to the suggestion that this is the sort of "tough call" that real-life NL managers have to make all the time. Hearing NL fans tell me how much more "complex" and "strategic" their game is gets old after awhile, since it's actually just as mind-numbingly push-button, paint-by-numbers automatic as the AL the vast majority of the time... and with the extra added bonus of 2 or 3 ABs from a .180 hitter every game.)

Matt Arnold · 01-25-2016, 08:16 PM

If I feel that I have a lights-out bullpen, and I have a good PH on the bench, I probably hit for him.

If not, then I probably swing away and hope he avoids the double play. Even if he strikes out on 3 pitches I can live with that, especially already being up in the game.

MizzouRah · 01-25-2016, 08:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BIG17EASY

To me, this is a no-brainer -- he stays in the game. You don't pull your ace (who is arguably the best pitcher in the game) in the 4th inning of an elimination with a 1-0 lead unless he's hurt.

I'm with you!

T.J. Lauerman · 01-26-2016, 12:17 AM

Did he start the Elimination Game on short rest?

If he did, then I'm all for pinch hitter.

If not, I'd probably let him bat, and tell him if he swings at 1 pitch, he's off the team.

BIG17EASY · 01-26-2016, 09:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DB930

I didn't want to be the first one to use the term "no-brainer", but I think that's what this is.

You're not. I used it two posts above you.

mpbaseball22 · 01-29-2016, 01:07 PM

Hmmm so it looks like most of you dont like my decision

I still dont think its a no brainer like some of you think. What makes it unique is just how good he was winning the pitching triple crown, but about to be going through the order for the 3rd time in such a HUGE situation as bases loaded no outs, I think you have to pinch hit him. Best case scenario is I take every pitch until he K's and have to hope my leadoff man doesnt GIDP. In a one run game I think its more important to focus on getting more runs than keeping the best pitcher in the game. Bases loaded with no outs run expectancy is 2.2654, with one out its 1.5263. .7 of a run difference and Im not sure that JoFer was worth that pitching wise if I wanted to get 2-3 more innings out of him over the next best option

I think thats why I like this game so much, you will probably never know if you made the right or wrong decision even if it works/doesnt work

01-25-2016, 01:21 PM	#1
mpbaseball22 Minors (Single A) Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 74	Managerial Decision in Elimination Game Here is the situation: Playoff series. Elimination game. Jose Fernandez won Cy Young this year and had an ERA in the 1.70 range. Next best pitcher was good too, with an ERA around 2.5 As you can see, bases are loaded with no outs and Fernandez hitting. Bottom of the 4th, Fernandez has thrown 50 pitches. Given that this is an elimination game, whats your call in this spot? If you take him out, you are taking the game out of the hands of the Cy Young + MVP. But risk a rally killing double play. If you take him out now at only 50 pitches he may even be ready for the next series opening game. What move do you make here? I chose to pinch hit for him. Ended up getting a fly out, then a sac fly, then a fly out to end the inning. Won the game 3-2. Probably the hardest managerial decision ive had to make in OOTP. Last edited by mpbaseball22; 01-25-2016 at 01:23 PM.

01-25-2016, 01:30 PM	#2
Westheim Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: Germany Posts: 11,903	He stays in. You have a lead, and it's only the fourth inning. The chances that the bullpen dicks up more runs compared to him pitching another three or four innings are probably higher than the extra runs a pinch-hitter generates. __________________ Portland Raccoons, 83 years of excell-.... of baseball: Furballs here! 1983 * 1989 * 1991 * 1992 * 1993 * 1995 * 1996 * 2010 * 2017 * 2018 * 2019 * 2026 * 2028 * 2035 * 2037 * 2044 * 2045 * 2046 * 2047 * 2048 * 2051 * 2054 * 2055 1 OSANAI : 2 POWELL : 7 NOMURA \| RAMOS : 8 REECE : 10 BROWN : 15 HALL : 27 FERNANDEZ : 28 CASAS : 31 CARMONA : 32 WEST : 39 TONER : 46 SAITO Resident Mets Cynic - The Mets from 1962 onwards, here.

01-25-2016, 04:44 PM	#4
rjl518 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Born in Shea Stadium, lives in LoanDepot Park. Posts: 6,240	NL managers have to deal with this type of situation all the time...i think many of them would keep Fernandez in the game. So in that regard...keeping him in is what i would do. Ill bet AL managers are happy that they only have to deal with these kind of things at NL ballparks... Darn DH Rule!!! __________________ My Threads: MLB Project 32 by SFGiants58 "Colon looking for his 1st hit of the year and he DRIVES ONE! Deep left field! Back goes Upton! Back near the wall! ITS OUTTA HERE!!! Bartolo has done it!!! THE IMPOSSIBLE HAS HAPPENED!!! This is one of the great moments in the history of baseball! Bartolo Colon has gone deep!" ---Gary Cohen. (May 7, 2016) (Petco Park) NYM 6 @ SD 3

01-25-2016, 07:54 PM	#7
Bowtie All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,316	I noticed that you chose to pinch hit for Fernandez. That - imho - is a huge roll of the dice. You got lucky this time that your team held on to win the game. I too would have chosen to leave him in. He gives you a much better chance of winning the game. Besides, he had only surrendered 2 hits over 4 innings. Just taking things as is, Fernandez was poised to give you at least 6 or 7 innings of quality pitching. That's what you want in an elimination game. Also, this may sound silly to some but I would have had Fernandez to bunt in order to further help protect him from an injury. Who cares if he's out at first. That's just the first out of the inning. If he's batting in the number 9 spot, you have the top of the order coming up and a better chance of keeping the rally going. His pitching is far more valuable than to risk him getting injured trying to get a hit. __________________

01-26-2016, 12:17 AM	#11
T.J. Lauerman Baseball Community Manager Join Date: Dec 2015 Location: New Jersey Posts: 151	Did he start the Elimination Game on short rest? If he did, then I'm all for pinch hitter. If not, I'd probably let him bat, and tell him if he swings at 1 pitch, he's off the team. __________________ Head of Community for Out of the Park Developments. Out of the Park Baseball 25 is available to pre-order at our Webstore or you can add it to your Steam Wishlist. OOTP Baseball Go 24 is available on the Google Play, and the iOS App Store. Follow us on X / Instagram / Facebook / Twitch / YouTube. Check out the video archives of my Acuña Matata Braves, ShoTime Angels, Redbirds Rising Cardinals and Chicago Hope White Sox franchises.

01-25-2016, 01:51 PM	#3
DB930 Major Leagues Join Date: Mar 2003 Posts: 302	Leave him in. Too early to lift a SP--especially a Cy Young-winning SP--unless he's been scuffling in the first 4 innings. You already have the lead, so you have a better chance of letting Fernandez try to hold that and tack on a couple of more runs later than you do of depending on your bullpen to get 15 outs without coughing up the lead somewhere along the way.

01-25-2016, 07:01 PM	#5
JMDurron All Star Starter Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 1,262	I generally try to mitigate the risk of pitcher-hitting GIDPs by bunting. A strikeout on a foul bunt is better than a ground ball, and a hit is highly improbable in this situation.

01-25-2016, 07:17 PM	#6
BIG17EASY Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 3,291	To me, this is a no-brainer -- he stays in the game. You don't pull your ace (who is arguably the best pitcher in the game) in the 4th inning of an elimination with a 1-0 lead unless he's hurt.

01-25-2016, 08:16 PM	#9
Matt Arnold OOTP Developer Join Date: Jun 2009 Location: Here and there Posts: 14,145	If I feel that I have a lights-out bullpen, and I have a good PH on the bench, I probably hit for him. If not, then I probably swing away and hope he avoids the double play. Even if he strikes out on 3 pitches I can live with that, especially already being up in the game.

01-29-2016, 01:07 PM	#13
mpbaseball22 Minors (Single A) Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 74	Hmmm so it looks like most of you dont like my decision I still dont think its a no brainer like some of you think. What makes it unique is just how good he was winning the pitching triple crown, but about to be going through the order for the 3rd time in such a HUGE situation as bases loaded no outs, I think you have to pinch hit him. Best case scenario is I take every pitch until he K's and have to hope my leadoff man doesnt GIDP. In a one run game I think its more important to focus on getting more runs than keeping the best pitcher in the game. Bases loaded with no outs run expectancy is 2.2654, with one out its 1.5263. .7 of a run difference and Im not sure that JoFer was worth that pitching wise if I wanted to get 2-3 more innings out of him over the next best option I think thats why I like this game so much, you will probably never know if you made the right or wrong decision even if it works/doesnt work