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Old 09-24-2019, 10:31 PM   #1
krownroyal83
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I'm starting to feel like OSA is better then my scout

I've always been told that your scout is generally going to be better than OSA, but lately when looking at past drafted players it just seems that OSA is closer with their predictions.
Looking at an upcoming draft there is a SP that OSP has a potential rating of 80 where my scout has that same SP listed as a 34 for overall potential. That's a huge difference so, either my scout or OSA is likely way off. I go to into the setting because i was curious and i changed the scouting accuracy from normal to 100% Accurate. Well OSA was correct, the SP is listed as having a 80 overall potential.

Here is my scouts ratings


Scout Major Leagues - Legendary
Scout Minor Leagues - Excellent
International Scouting - Legendary
Scouting Amateurs - Excellent
Scouting Preference - Highly Favor Ability

My total scouting budget is $7 million. 35% of which goes to Amateur scouting.
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Old 09-24-2019, 10:54 PM   #2
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I totally ignore my scout. He’s generally as useful as a hemorrhoid, and often more painful to the team. OSA or my gut..
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Old 09-25-2019, 02:30 AM   #3
KBLover
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Quote:
Originally Posted by krownroyal83 View Post
Scouting Preference - Highly Favor Ability
I believe this will cause him to "sell short" on potential, which, of course, draftees are usually 80% potential, 20% actual skills.

If you temporarily changed this to "Highly Favor Tools" (i.e. potential) would this change his assessment? (may need to force a re-scout to see the differences)

My own scout is Outstanding at Amateurs, Highly Favor Tools, 30% of a $6 million scouting budget to work with. He's been pretty solid in his assessments of young talents.
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Old 09-25-2019, 10:45 AM   #4
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This explains why my drafting has been mid-tier dreck; my scouting director favours ability (but not *heavily favours). Thank you for lifting the veil on that!
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Old 09-25-2019, 09:01 PM   #5
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put him to neutral, if you like your gut... no shading either way.

quality of scout x budget = accuracy... so, if your budget isn't up to snuff, the OSA may very well be better in many cases.

you're guess is as good as mine what "average" budget is, and whether that is even break-even given an 'average' scout with OSA. but, i'd take the baseline for your league and divide by 4 as a good start.

an eyeball test you can do -- a common trend that improved accuracy makes for fewer elite players in a draft class. you can compare relative distribution to OSA and determine if it's close or not (lots of leeway, though). if you show a greater number of 76-80type guys, you likely have less accuracy than the OSA in that particular scouting category.

this would work well with the IAFA list too.

Last edited by NoOne; 09-25-2019 at 09:06 PM.
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Old 09-26-2019, 11:36 PM   #6
krownroyal83
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KBLover View Post
I believe this will cause him to "sell short" on potential, which, of course, draftees are usually 80% potential, 20% actual skills.

If you temporarily changed this to "Highly Favor Tools" (i.e. potential) would this change his assessment? (may need to force a re-scout to see the differences)

My own scout is Outstanding at Amateurs, Highly Favor Tools, 30% of a $6 million scouting budget to work with. He's been pretty solid in his assessments of young talents.
I just did exactly what you said using a test file, with the player in question and his potential went from a 34 with my scout to a 56, which is a pretty big improvement. So now OSA has him at 80 and my scout has him at 56.
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Old 09-27-2019, 10:49 AM   #7
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make a list of the osa well-rated and your scout's well-rated.. (shortlist)

then, go turn 100% accuracy on and see the full truth even easier to determine which is better.
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Old 09-27-2019, 02:58 PM   #8
krownroyal83
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I took my scout and made all his ratings 200 and set it to heavily favor tools, then I took 4 prospects who's ratings varied greatly between my scout and OSA and compared OSA potential to my Scout potential. Then i turned on scouting to 100% accurate, and OSA was exactly right on all for propects. The batting/pitching ratings were not exact but the potential ratings were correct. Looks like no matter what my scout is undervaluing prospects. I'll have to try increasing my scouting budget, but for the time being i'm gonna have to trust OSA.
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Old 09-30-2019, 02:50 AM   #9
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small sample... and put it to neutral.

if you had college draft prospects, it likely undervalued.

osa is likely neutral, so you must compare apples to apples. who a scout favors drastically changes what you see... if you want it that way, do it... but as you see it merely skews things for no reason, lol... imho.

that is more for the AI. all it does is screw up your choices. it provides diversity to the AI's choices.

also, make sure to re-run scouting after you make any changes like you mentioned, or they are not in effect.

the budget is a significant factor too... modern mlb estimate per budget is 3M? (baseline/4?), and you can dump all of your int'l budget into the other 3, too. unless you have int'l leagues active and running in background, there is no use for this budget.

that 3M + an 'average' scout would be equivalent to an OSA, that's my guesstimate. unless you have favor XXX, then the osa is probably better, LOL!
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