Overall vs potential ratings

Karl Pagel Blues · 03-19-2019, 05:33 PM

I just had a quick look at the Cubs player ratings. My question will most likely apply to all organizations, but I haven't checked them.

Is there a reason why young players such as Javy Baez have the same overall and potential ratings? Baez is 26 and could/should still improve in certain areas of his game. But when I look at his ratings in the editor, overall and potential values are exactly the same.

The same thing with Kyle Schwarber, also 26. Same overall and potential ratings.

At what age does a player no longer improve? Or is there some other qualifier at play that would override the potential ratings and allow a player to improve?

I know about the Talent Change Randomness setting (default = 100). But is there anything else that determines if a player in his prime years will exceed the shown potential ratings?

Thanks in advance for clearing this up for me.

Karl Pagel Blues · 03-19-2019, 05:35 PM

And there's no difference whether or not scouting is enabled. The overall and potential ratings stay the same.

jimmysthebestcop · 03-19-2019, 06:46 PM

They've got 5 and 4 years of MLB service time. Not many people develop past that.

Only the the top of the superstars might develop after that much MLB service time.

thesmokeshow · 03-19-2019, 07:23 PM

You’ll also notice if a player has a big year and is overachieving, his potential can go up along with his rating. So, just because someone is 2.5 stars potential doesn’t mean he cant become a 3.5 or even a 4 star player. Certainly doesn’t happen every time a player has a big season but I’ve definitely seen it happen especially with younger players.

Shake Appeal · 03-19-2019, 07:29 PM

The latest real-life research on aging suggests most batters actually peak around the age of 26, provided they've had the playing time to reach it. Which is to say, we've probably already seen Baez's career year.

Karl Pagel Blues · 03-20-2019, 02:34 AM

Okay, thanks for the replies.

I guess there is an inherent bias in how I rate a player from my team (Cubs).

But I still feel that OOTP should somehow allow for a talented 26 to 28-year old player with high work ethic and intelligence to occasionally take that "next step" and exceed his shown potential ratings. Which is what thesmokeshow refers to in his answer.

Of course, the opposite should also happen, to mirror real life. A talented young player with a low work ethic and low intelligence would see his overall and potential ratings drop. (I'm looking at you, Starlin Castro!)

Does anyone know what impact changing the Talent Change Randomness setting has on such ratings changes? I'm thinking about bumping it up to about 150. Will the positive and negative ratings surprises be divided equally?

Anyway, I appreciate the feedback.

jimmysthebestcop · 03-20-2019, 05:06 AM

Someone can possibly develop at 26 still but most likely not someone who has 5 years of MLB experience.

You could draft someone out of college who is 23 might take him 3 years in minors.

The example of the 2 players you listed just won't show that since they have so much MLB experience.

Shake Appeal · 03-20-2019, 05:25 AM

I don't mean to imply Javi Baez is going to fall off a cliff either, just that he took that big leap forward you're talking about last year, and some of his 2018 was unsustainable and likely to regress. Many aspects of a batter seem to peak in their mid-to-late 20s, including their "overall" wOBA. Others (isolated power) fall off a little later and some (walk percentage) take even longer to fade.

Baez likely has three or four seasons of great baseball in him, and maybe a bunch after that that are good (although a lot of what he does well is predicated on raw athleticism and a high-K, low-BB approach), but he probably won't discover something extra at the plate.

The realities of aging in baseball were distorted by steroids for a long time, but it's one factor in why the market for 30+ year-old free agents has gotten so cold.

03-19-2019, 05:33 PM	#1
Karl Pagel Blues Minors (Single A) Join Date: May 2018 Posts: 92	Overall vs potential ratings I just had a quick look at the Cubs player ratings. My question will most likely apply to all organizations, but I haven't checked them. Is there a reason why young players such as Javy Baez have the same overall and potential ratings? Baez is 26 and could/should still improve in certain areas of his game. But when I look at his ratings in the editor, overall and potential values are exactly the same. The same thing with Kyle Schwarber, also 26. Same overall and potential ratings. At what age does a player no longer improve? Or is there some other qualifier at play that would override the potential ratings and allow a player to improve? I know about the Talent Change Randomness setting (default = 100). But is there anything else that determines if a player in his prime years will exceed the shown potential ratings? Thanks in advance for clearing this up for me. Attached Images

03-19-2019, 05:35 PM	#2
Karl Pagel Blues Minors (Single A) Join Date: May 2018 Posts: 92	And there's no difference whether or not scouting is enabled. The overall and potential ratings stay the same.

03-19-2019, 06:46 PM	#3
jimmysthebestcop Banned Join Date: Jun 2018 Posts: 1,728 Infractions: 0/2 (5)	They've got 5 and 4 years of MLB service time. Not many people develop past that. Only the the top of the superstars might develop after that much MLB service time.

03-19-2019, 07:23 PM	#4
thesmokeshow Minors (Double A) Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 109	You’ll also notice if a player has a big year and is overachieving, his potential can go up along with his rating. So, just because someone is 2.5 stars potential doesn’t mean he cant become a 3.5 or even a 4 star player. Certainly doesn’t happen every time a player has a big season but I’ve definitely seen it happen especially with younger players.

03-19-2019, 07:29 PM	#5
Shake Appeal Minors (Double A) Join Date: Mar 2016 Posts: 104	The latest real-life research on aging suggests most batters actually peak around the age of 26, provided they've had the playing time to reach it. Which is to say, we've probably already seen Baez's career year.

03-20-2019, 02:34 AM	#6
Karl Pagel Blues Minors (Single A) Join Date: May 2018 Posts: 92	Okay, thanks for the replies. I guess there is an inherent bias in how I rate a player from my team (Cubs). But I still feel that OOTP should somehow allow for a talented 26 to 28-year old player with high work ethic and intelligence to occasionally take that "next step" and exceed his shown potential ratings. Which is what thesmokeshow refers to in his answer. Of course, the opposite should also happen, to mirror real life. A talented young player with a low work ethic and low intelligence would see his overall and potential ratings drop. (I'm looking at you, Starlin Castro!) Does anyone know what impact changing the Talent Change Randomness setting has on such ratings changes? I'm thinking about bumping it up to about 150. Will the positive and negative ratings surprises be divided equally? Anyway, I appreciate the feedback.

03-20-2019, 05:06 AM	#7
jimmysthebestcop Banned Join Date: Jun 2018 Posts: 1,728 Infractions: 0/2 (5)	Someone can possibly develop at 26 still but most likely not someone who has 5 years of MLB experience. You could draft someone out of college who is 23 might take him 3 years in minors. The example of the 2 players you listed just won't show that since they have so much MLB experience.

03-20-2019, 05:25 AM	#8
Shake Appeal Minors (Double A) Join Date: Mar 2016 Posts: 104	I don't mean to imply Javi Baez is going to fall off a cliff either, just that he took that big leap forward you're talking about last year, and some of his 2018 was unsustainable and likely to regress. Many aspects of a batter seem to peak in their mid-to-late 20s, including their "overall" wOBA. Others (isolated power) fall off a little later and some (walk percentage) take even longer to fade. Baez likely has three or four seasons of great baseball in him, and maybe a bunch after that that are good (although a lot of what he does well is predicated on raw athleticism and a high-K, low-BB approach), but he probably won't discover something extra at the plate. The realities of aging in baseball were distorted by steroids for a long time, but it's one factor in why the market for 30+ year-old free agents has gotten so cold.