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Old 04-28-2018, 07:08 PM   #1
stealofhome
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Feeder leagues are broken -- what's wrong and how to fix it

Edit: Some of the information in this original post has been revised through the process of figuring all this out and there are updates through the topic.

TL;DR
Too many high schoolers and not enough quality position players are created for the draft as compared with real life MLB and the 2018 MLB quickstart. Also, draft quality quickly diminishes over the first 10 years in every type of league in OOTP. I believe that the main vehicle for getting players into the league in OOTP needs to be fixed.
Real MLB
My quest to understand feeder leagues started with a look at the real-life MLB. What are the expectations for a draft—in particular ratio to of high school to college players. I noticed in a test league that a high percentage of draftees were from high school which didn’t pass the sniff test. Here’s what I found: LINK

There are ~450,000 HS baseball players, 130,000 of which are seniors. 350 of those get drafted, and 7,300 go on to NCAA. Of the 25,700 NCAA players, 5,700 are seniors and only 1,000 get drafted. Almost all of the NCAA players played in high school, and almost all of them (87%) even played on special club teams.

In 2017, 20% of the players selected in the first 10 rounds were high school picks and 26% of all draftees were from high school.

This 25% high school number is just wrong. I was looking at the MLB.com analysis of the 2017 draft and they used that number. However, when I do the numbers myself over the past 20 years, I find that the ratio between high schoolers and college is closer to 40/60 over the first 5 rounds. This means the OOTP MLB Quickstart percentages are right on target.

Obviously this amount of players will not work for OOTP, so let’s look at the percentages. 30% of high school players are eligible for the draft, 0.3% of eligible high school players get drafted, 22% of college players are eligible for the draft, and 18% of college players get drafted.

This is the baseline for an OOTP real-life feeder league design. 20-30% of the draftees should be from high school and as many college players as possible should have high school experience. It is also important to have an appropriate ratio of quality players. In order to be most efficient, there should be a minimum number of players eligible for the draft. For a regular MLB setup with 35 draft rounds, this comes out to about 1080 players.
MLB Quickstart
The first thing I wanted to check in OOTP was how it handled the draft in a simple quickstart. No feeder leagues, no changing settings, just vanilla, out-of-the-box OOTP.

The percentage of high school players in year 1 is definitely acceptable, but an ominous sign appears.


Percent drafted HSPercent eligible HS draftedPercent eligible college drafted
36%97%68%


Players in OOTP are more or equally as likely to be drafted, regardless if they are eligible from high school or college.

This is the opposite of the way it works in the real world and creates a problem for feeder leagues. If you create a feeder league system with more high school teams than college, a la real life, you will have a much higher percentage of high school draftees. They will need more development time, be more prone to talent change randomness, more likely to run into Rule 5 problems, and riskier overall.

If you simulate 10 years into the future and check out the MLB 2018 quickstart draft, what do you get?
Percent drafted HS Percent eligible HS drafted Percent eligible college drafted
48% 99% 97%

The quickstart game does a good job of creating the proper amount of draftees but in the wrong ratios. Now approximately half of all players in the draft are from high school and again all of the high school draftees are taken along with all of the college draftees.

That may not be a big deal to you. You may say, “who cares where the draftee comes from as long as they have great potential?” Well let’s compare the distribution of potential for draftees from year 1 to year 10, again, just using vanilla OOTP.

Where are the high potential players coming from and what does the quality of the draft look like? I created a system to calculate draft quality. It’s admittedly not perfect but it’s something. Players get a quality score based off their position, whether they are eligible from high school or college, and their potential rating.











POSQuality
1B0.4
2B0.6
3B0.4
C1
CF0.8
CL0.4
LF0.4
RF0.6
RP0.4
SP0.6
SS0.8




FromQuality
HS0.667
"HS"1
College1

The “HS” row here describes the players that the game inaccurately describes as coming from high school when in fact they are eligible from college.













PotentialQuality
200.07
250.12
300.20
350.29
400.42
450.54
500.66
550.77
600.85
650.90
700.94
750.97
801.00

These values are based off the cumulative distribution of players in the default MLB league.

The quality score is the multiplication result of these three values. Here is the draft quality for the MLB Quickstart over the first 10 years and then at 50 years.



There is a huge cliff from the first year to the second year and then consistent decline until about year 7 where it stabilizes to a value less than half that of the original draft class.

Here is the distribution of the potentials over the years. You can see there are many more 30-40 potential players in year one than in any other following year, but then many more 60-80 potential players in the following year. However, many of those high potential players are actually relievers, not position players. The number of position players with 30+ potential changes from 59% in year one to 15% in year 7.






Potential1234567891050
20-2538.557.061.067.476.979.683.384.182.583.681.1
30-4050.927.718.915.99.68.87.37.16.96.910.0
45-559.811.914.410.57.06.04.64.75.75.36.6
60-700.83.05.04.54.13.93.02.73.03.01.9
75-800.00.50.71.72.41.71.81.41.91.20.5


Here is the distribution of the 65+ potential players for all years:










POSCollegeHS
1B1.31%3.42%
2B0.87%0.85%
3B0.87%2.56%
C1.31%3.42%
CF9.17%13.68%
CL18.34%0.00%
RF1.75%1.71%
RP26.64%5.98%
SP37.12%62.39%
SS2.62%5.98%


The biggest issue with the MLB Quickstart is that there are too many high school draftees and inconsistent draft quality over the years.

Default feeder league
I tried running a default feeder league setup, simply by selecting add default feeder league system. I only changed the number of draft rounds back to 35/35 and feeder league players only. I’m not sure why OOTP changes this to 65 rounds when the feeder system is added – probably because the system is not properly designed for a regular MLB setup (30 teams, 7 levels of minors). It creates 4 high school leagues with 48 teams each and 1 college league with 40 teams. In this case, even the first year draft is poor and the problem increases exponentially as the years continue.


YearTotal Eligible playersPercent drafted HS through round 10
Year 1230364%
Year 10531594%


The default feeder system creates way too many players and most of them come from high school. Both the total number of teams and the ratio between college and high school need to change. Most of the eligible college players in the default feeder league are actually listed as eligible from high school but in reality went to college and are over 20 years old. There are thousands of 20 overall potential players just hanging out and gumming up the league files.

Custom feeder league
Then I went down the path of custom feeder leagues. I created a bunch of different leagues with a different ratio of high school and college teams, eligibility settings, etc. A main limitation is the fact that high school players, once eligible for the draft, are just as likely as college players to get drafted. There really should be a much larger number of high school teams than college teams but this ends up creating a big issue come draft time. The workaround I’m using is to force a larger percentage of college players to be eligible for the draft. This way you can have a closer ratio of college to high school teams in order to get at least some high schoolers to go to college.

My goals:
1. Near 25% high school draftees
2. Near 100 quality around year 10 according to my system which would compare to the quickstart values
3. A minimum number of eligible players each year to make that happen
4. Appropriate mix of talent by position
5. Most college players have high school experience

My settings:






HSCollege
Teams3684
Min age1518
Max age1822
Min age created*1518
Max age created*1518
EligibleIf max age reached2 yrs prior to max age

*These values are changed after league creation

I turn off automatic free agent creation, 35 draft rounds, create players for 35 rounds, and feeder league players only.

Here are my results in comparison to the MLB quickstart.

Goal 1: Once the draft stabilizes, I hit around 24% high school draftees in the first 10 rounds. This is just about right.
Goal 2: Once the draft stabilizes, I achieve a draft quality of 120 which is a little high, but I would rather have more talent in the draft than not enough. Since these drafts have more than 1080 players eligible, I only took the quality results from the best 1080 players.

Goal 3: The quickstart creates 1080 players for the draft each year, but in order to make the quality and ratios work out, I had to increase the player goal a little. I average ~1650 players a year which is again a little too high, but close enough for me.
Goal 4: This is where the feeder system struggles and breaks the game. High school players do not get created properly and so the ratios of talent in the draft do not match up well. This is the distribution of all 65+ potential players next to the quickstart ratios as a comparison.











Quickstart Ratios
POSCollegeHS
1B1.31%3.42%
2B0.87%0.85%
3B0.87%2.56%
C1.31%3.42%
CF9.17%13.68%
CL18.34%0.00%
RF1.75%1.71%
RP26.64%5.98%
SP37.12%62.39%
SS2.62%5.98%














Custom Feeder Ratios
POSCollegeHS
1B5.39%15.79%
2B2.99%0.00%
3B1.80%0.00%
C0.20%0.00%
CF3.79%0.00%
CL36.93%40.35%
LF1.80%0.00%
RF1.00%0.00%
RP18.16%15.79%
SP27.15%28.07%
SS0.80%0.00%


I’ll break it down a little more:




QuickstartCustom Feeder
CollegeHSCollegeHS
Batter18%32%18%16%
Starter37%62%27%28%
Reliever45%6%55%56%


Nearly all of the good high school players are relievers in the custom feeder leagues, while barely any of the good high school players are relievers in the quickstart. The ratio of the good position players is off as well as there are not enough C, CF, and SS with high potential created in the feeder system.



QuickstartCustom Feeder
C2.02%0.18%
CF10.69%3.41%
SS3.76%0.72%


Goal 5: Due to the issues of player creation and all the good eligible high school players getting selected, almost none of the talented college players have high school stats. They are created by the game in college and drafted as soon as they’re eligible.

Outstanding issues with feeder leagues
1. Feeder players are not created properly. There are far too few high potential C, CF, and SS players and far too many high potential relievers in both feeder leagues and in the quickstart.
2. High school draft eligible players are more or equally likely as college players to get drafted. This is not consistent with real life. Possible fix – some of the high potential high schoolers absolutely refuse to sign in the draft and go to college. The other undrafted high schoolers get a huge TCR boost in college and become talented enough to draft. Create some way for only 12.5% of eligible high schoolers to get drafted. This way you can have more HS teams but fewer drafted HS players.
3. Not enough draftees have both high school and college experience. Either high potential draftees get taken out of high school or they get taken out of college. Almost none of the most talented players have both high school and college stats. This is related to and can be fixed by issue #2.
4. Players who don’t get drafted out of college actually show up as eligible from high school. They show up as 21-24 year-old high school players, even though they actually played college and became eligible for the draft. Many of these players were not drafted, were “released” by their college, and sat around for a year.
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Last edited by stealofhome; 06-08-2018 at 11:05 AM.
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Old 04-29-2018, 04:11 AM   #2
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Let’s hope that the developers pay attention to this and fix the game accordingly.
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Old 04-29-2018, 04:52 AM   #3
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if you are using real playrs and transitioning to fictional, this may be the cause.

they do various things so that the real players will play more. even the ai evaluation is different for a 2018 mlb leauge than a fictional mlb league.

the prospects are probably elevated a tad too much, so that you see real life player names more often in your league. if you've ever done an inaugural draft you know there's just a ton of well-rated prospects waiting to be used. you can still easily find 50-60/80 potential as late as round 80+, if i recall. iusually stop looking for 'prospects' at round ~60 and just fill based on need after that for each mil level.. ~30 awesome prospects and a 110win 25-man team plus AAA depth. a few trades and you are winning 120-130+ the first ten years after an inaugural draft with zero effort, lol.

i bet if you start out fictional, it starts at that later level of quality. players form RL - mlb and prospects - are not teh same animal as fictionally created players.

as far as ratio of hs/college draftees... that obviously isn't explained by this. if it really does deviate significantly from real life, that is. (i'm not too lazy to read a long post, but i am too lazy to look up a bunch of research on this :P ) pop a post into a different forum maybe? they'll probably see this one.. "future suggestion" - mayb ebugs forum, but not technically a bug and not sure if that's their intent for that forum or not. rules and decorum-- PBBT!

Last edited by NoOne; 04-29-2018 at 04:56 AM.
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Old 04-29-2018, 09:38 AM   #4
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The fictional leagues are pure fictional from the start.
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Old 04-29-2018, 10:02 AM   #5
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Does this draft look familiar to any fictional players? Nearly the entire first round is either pitchers or first basemen. I've also compared it to just the 2017 MLB 1st round draft, which was light on SS.
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Old 04-29-2018, 10:18 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stealofhome View Post
Does this draft look familiar to any fictional players? Nearly the entire first round is either pitchers or first basemen. I've also compared it to just the 2017 MLB 1st round draft, which was light on SS.
That could just be the AI at that time; I have only been through 1 draft with OOTP 19, and I don't recall it being that skewed, but I am noticing a preference for SPs.

That however could reflect an overall trend in MLB to stock-up on early round SP draftees, as part of longer-term strategies and issues with bringing starters through the ranks (and the attrition levels, of guys who don't work-out).
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Old 04-29-2018, 10:18 AM   #7
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Question: You mentioned, Players in OOTP are more or equally as likely to be drafted, regardless if they are eligible from high school or college.

In my experience, the results of the actual draft are different. Eligible and actually drafted; more of the guys out of HS go undrafted at the end. I wonder if Eligible and “draftable” are somewhat different.

However, I in reading through this, I think the crux of the concern could be with the Quickstart Ratios: SP 37.12% (college) 62.39% (HS), and also compared to the overall % of position players….seems like an issue. Although I think overall the SP ratio will be higher.
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Old 04-29-2018, 10:52 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Calvert98 View Post
That could just be the AI at that time; I have only been through 1 draft with OOTP 19, and I don't recall it being that skewed, but I am noticing a preference for SPs.

That however could reflect an overall trend in MLB to stock-up on early round SP draftees, as part of longer-term strategies and issues with bringing starters through the ranks (and the attrition levels, of guys who don't work-out).
I have looked through many drafts in many league setups and have seen the same exact thing. The first round is all starting pitchers and first basemen. That post was just an example. There is also another post on the forums with other people who have seen the same thing. (ootp loves first basemen)

As per your second comment that most high school players don't get drafted: first, many of the high school eligible players are actually from college. Depending on the league settings you will have a group of 20-23 year old "high school players" who are actually 20 potential failed college players. I ran the numbers and saw the actual percentage of drafted high school players overall and in just the first 10 rounds (most talented) trends with the percent available. I have those numbers for each test.
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Old 04-29-2018, 11:06 AM   #9
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I have looked through many drafts in many league setups and have seen the same exact thing. The first round is all starting pitchers and first basemen. That post was just an example. There is also another post on the forums with other people who have seen the same thing. (ootp loves first basemen)
Well, then it's definition issue. Not to split hairs, but if these HS players in your sample are from college (failed or not), then they are not HS players.

Quote:
Originally Posted by stealofhome View Post
As per your second comment that most high school players don't get drafted: first, many of the high school eligible players are actually from college. Depending on the league settings you will have a group of 20-23 year old "high school players" who are actually 20 potential failed college players. I ran the numbers and saw the actual percentage of drafted high school players overall and in just the first 10 rounds (most talented) trends with the percent available. I have those numbers for each test.

I get what you are saying, but regardless of the number of scenarios run, if the AI is trending towards modern day realizations of high SP attrition rates, and compensating for it, it will be the same regardless of the start/world.

Again, as I mentioned, the %s (SPs per HS and College) however do seem off overall as you pointed-out, so I'm not saying there is not something that should be addressed, it's just that these are two items that could be impacting the view somewhat.
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Old 04-29-2018, 11:09 AM   #10
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Here's my 2019 draft with OOTP19

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Old 04-29-2018, 11:24 AM   #11
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So, Buster, you have around 37% SPs there; I only see one 1B guy.

Also note that if in-fact the % of actual drafted HS players is low compared to the actual overall sample size of those eligible (and compared to College), then a good % of 2nd, 3rd year type guys would be floating into the following/consecutive year’s draft pools.

That makes sense, but I can't say how that actual % in OOTP stacks-up with the MLB. That would be interesting to see.
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Old 04-29-2018, 11:29 AM   #12
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Quote:
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Well, then it's definition issue. Not to split hairs, but if these HS players in your sample are from college (failed or not), then they are not HS players.
Yes, that's my point. Once I change what OOTP wrongly defines as a high school prospect - 20+ yr old college player - I get a different percentage of high schoolers drafted. The high schoolers are actual high school players out of high school.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Calvert98 View Post
I get what you are saying, but regardless of the number of scenarios run, if the AI is trending towards modern day realizations of high SP attrition rates, and compensating for it, it will be the same regardless of the start/world.

Again, as I mentioned, the %s (SPs per HS and College) however do seem off overall as you pointed-out, so I'm not saying there is not something that should be addressed, it's just that these are two items that could be impacting the view somewhat.
I'm not as worried about SP ratios - a ton of starting pitchers are taken because of injuries, failures, turning into RP, etc. What's worse is the minimum amount of high skill position players available - SS, CF, C. Those don't exist in feeder league drafts once the league gets going.

Buster - what are your settings? Feeder players only? If so, simulate the league ahead 10 years and then post that draft. That's the problem. The first few drafts are much more skilled but once the league gets running, only SP, 1B, and CL/RP are created at high potential within the feeder league.
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Old 04-29-2018, 01:31 PM   #13
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StealofHome I read your whole post. I am impressed at the effort you have made here. I did something similar once and there is a definite regression to the mean in quality over 25-50 seasons. But I did not see the disparity is positions that you are seeing. If anything I found far more players with skills at multiple positions than compared to a pre-generated draft. One of the things I do that accounts for this is I limit the roster of feeder teams to 28 players and cap the player creation age at the minimum after 10 seasons. So each "high school" league has an eligibility of ages 14-18 bur after 10 seasons only 14 year olds are created to backfiil. Same for college teams at 18. This ensures a player gets 4 full seasons on the feeder teams and the limited roster ensures they all get AB's. You have to force the AI to use lesser players and only be getting in games to the players improve.
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Old 04-29-2018, 03:08 PM   #14
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Thanks for the tip! I've tried messing with the age limits but not roster limits.
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Old 04-29-2018, 07:55 PM   #15
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So I just ran the same test using a roster limit of 28 on feeder leagues and 14-18/18-23 with player creation 14-14/18-18. I changed this after the first season instead of the 10th. I'm still getting the same results - all SP/1B/CL, no good SS/CF/C, etc.

How many leagues do you use and how are they set up? 4 HS leagues with fewer teams, multiple C, etc?
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Old 04-30-2018, 04:43 PM   #16
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I started looking more closely into some of the players and it looks like there are players who have the defensive skills to play at these positions but are only used as 1B in the feeder leagues. So they never gain the development time necessary to qualify as highly rated and never play the best position for them.
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Old 05-01-2018, 05:20 PM   #17
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This is a great analysis! Thanks for the effort to understand and improve the game.
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Old 05-01-2018, 06:33 PM   #18
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Well I think I'm about ready to give up on it. My goal was to figure this out deeply enough to create a process for adding them appropriately. I have been unable to find a setting that achieves what I've defined as a successful feeder system.

I have tested: total number of HS and C teams, ratio of teams, number of teams per league, how many rounds to generate players, creation modifiers, creating HS/C "Indy" leagues, roster limits, eligibility requirements, eligibility ages, min-max ages, creation ages, season start dates, and strategic tendencies.

The best I can do will create an appropriate number of players total, but far too many high potential relievers and not enough high potential position players. I would love to be proven wrong and see the settings that someone else has that is working great, but for now I cannot see how feeder leagues can create a proper draft system.
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Old 05-01-2018, 08:03 PM   #19
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What about adjusting up the PCMs for positions players in the feeders?

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Old 05-03-2018, 02:55 PM   #20
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What about adjusting up the PCMs for positions players in the feeders?

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Thanks for this idea! I cranked up the batting modifiers for MLB to 1.5 and 10 years down the road got a 1st round draft full of hitters. I'll have to figure out the right ratios to get it balanced again, but definitely much better. Of course the MLB league averages are ridiculous but that will have to be looked into as well.

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