Excitement! Quickly followed by reality

<Pion> · 01-14-2019, 01:45 PM

That excitement you feel when a purchased pack shows you've got a gold, diamond, or <gasp> a perfect.

Then reality sets in when you find out the player you got is an underachiever that will stink up the joint and won't fetch even the low "sell now" price if put up for auction. Latest packs had a diamond and several golds, but the diamond was Blake Snell and the golds were Max Muncy, HoJo, Bryce Harper (not a fan). Muncy is hitting .125 and leads the new guys. Stanton (75) is second at .125, while HoJo and Harper have combined for zero hits.

Oh well, such is luck. Win some, lose some, and lose some even more

Matt Arnold · 01-14-2019, 01:49 PM

If you buy a regular pack, even if you get a "bad" gold card, it's basically like playing the lottery and you get a "free play" draw. So yeah, not going to help you out, but you at least get a free pack out of it that maybe you get a better draw from next time.

<Pion> · 01-14-2019, 01:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

If you buy a regular pack, even if you get a "bad" gold card, it's basically like playing the lottery and you get a "free play" draw. So yeah, not going to help you out, but you at least get a free pack out of it that maybe you get a better draw from next time.

Agreed, and no complaints. It's just the emotional roller coaster of getting excited it might be something good followed by the quick dose of water on the fire. I plan on letting them play a bit (on a gold level team, they might do some good), then at some point sell the to get the "free" draw as you say. It's a theme team that I'm doing only packs, no AH, so I'm in it or the adventure not the winning (though they've made it to the playoffs the last two years at bronze and silver)

chazzycat · 01-14-2019, 01:57 PM

Muncy-Harper-Stanton can be nice players in the right situation. Those guys don't measure success by number of hits, it's all about walks & homers.

spleen1015 · 01-14-2019, 01:59 PM

It's like having 3 teams and when you open your initial packs and the 1 gold you get is a RP for all 3 teams. That happened to me.

<Pion> · 01-14-2019, 02:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by spleen1015

It's like having 3 teams and when you open your initial packs and the 1 gold you get is a RP for all 3 teams. That happened to me.

Ouch! In one of mine, I ended up with RP Cal Edwards Jr (I think that is his name). Horrible control rating, but has really been dominant as my closer so far in Bronze and Silver. But even though dominant, not the kind of player to build a team around.

<Pion> · 01-14-2019, 02:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chazzycat

Muncy-Harper-Stanton can be nice players in the right situation. Those guys don't measure success by number of hits, it's all about walks & homers.

True, which is why I'm playing them. But there are a whole bunch of silver players who are better and of course many gold players who are better. But as an example, there are approximately 60 1Bmen with better ratings than Muncy including a pitcher that would start at 1B ahead of him. So yeah, he can get on base and hit the long ball, but you nobody is lighting up the AH in search of him.

Their OPS is very mediocre... Harper .761 (95K PAs), Stanton .766 (28K PAs), and Muncy .744 (59K PAs).

chazzycat · 01-14-2019, 03:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by <Pion>

So yeah, he can get on base and hit the long ball, but you nobody is lighting up the AH in search of him.

For one of my teams, I basically set up a bandbox type stadium (max HR factor, minimum everything else) and those are the exact guys I was searching for on the AH. It just makes sense to push HR POW and EYE to the extreme for that park setup. I was surprised how cheap a lot of those types of players could be had, compared to the more well-rounded hitters on my other team. I think it's a pretty viable strategy for building a low-cost team right now.

zrog2000 · 01-14-2019, 05:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chazzycat

For one of my teams, I basically set up a bandbox type stadium (max HR factor, minimum everything else) and those are the exact guys I was searching for on the AH. It just makes sense to push HR POW and EYE to the extreme for that park setup. I was surprised how cheap a lot of those types of players could be had, compared to the more well-rounded hitters on my other team. I think it's a pretty viable strategy for building a low-cost team right now.

I could see that working in lower leagues, but in diamond and perfect, they wouldn't be able to even hit the ball to hit HR because the pitching is too good. Those guys are so frustrating to me.

<Pion> · 01-14-2019, 05:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zrog2000

I could see that working in lower leagues, but in diamond and perfect, they wouldn't be able to even hit the ball to hit HR because the pitching is too good. Those guys are so frustrating to me.

Yep, they are OK through Gold (if you can handle the low batting averages, but in Diamond and Perfect there is a distinct drop off. Using a simple measure, OPS, for Max Muncy he has a .803 in Bronze, .753 in Bronze, .749 in Gold, but only .711 in Diamond and .706 in Perfect. Stanton and Harper followed very similar drop offs. Since I have them in Gold, I know they'll be an issue as soon as I advance to Diamond.

Will_L · 01-14-2019, 05:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chazzycat

Muncy-Harper-Stanton can be nice players in the right situation. Those guys don't measure success by number of hits, it's all about walks & homers.

I stuck Harper in the leadoff spot as DH on two of my teams because of his walks and OBP. He's far from very good though lol.

chazzycat · 01-14-2019, 06:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zrog2000

I could see that working in lower leagues, but in diamond and perfect, they wouldn't be able to even hit the ball to hit HR because the pitching is too good. Those guys are so frustrating to me.

Yeah...the experiment is still early for me. Just started last week. I'm committed to it though...will be interesting to see how far I can take it.

One thing I feel strongly about is that people get way too hung up on particular stats like # of HR hit in a season. Like you said PT is much more talented than real life pitching-wise. So you shouldn't be comparing your players HR totals to real life. You will be dissappointed. Instead you should compare them to your current league.

Learned this last week because on my team of pure-HR sluggers, no one hit more than 30 or so. I was disappointed at first but then realized I was actually leading my league in HR. It's all relative.

chazzycat · 01-14-2019, 06:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by <Pion>

Yep, they are OK through Gold (if you can handle the low batting averages, but in Diamond and Perfect there is a distinct drop off. Using a simple measure, OPS, for Max Muncy he has a .803 in Bronze, .753 in Bronze, .749 in Gold, but only .711 in Diamond and .706 in Perfect. Stanton and Harper followed very similar drop offs. Since I have them in Gold, I know they'll be an issue as soon as I advance to Diamond.

Shouldn't you kinda expect everyone to drop off when they go up though? Is there evidence these types of players actually drop off more than others over a large sample size?

<Pion> · 01-14-2019, 06:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chazzycat

Shouldn't you kinda expect everyone to drop off when they go up though? Is there evidence these types of players actually drop off more than others over a large sample size?

Of course everyone drops off, that's why you get better players and players like Muncy/Harper/Stanton are out of a job. Going back to the original post, it was exciting to get a gold, but disappointing that the gold was either already or one season away from being out of any value. I can find silver players that will outproduce them at Diamond level (as well as every other level), and a player like Muncy does not have any value above the Sell now price point.

zrog2000 · 01-14-2019, 06:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chazzycat

Yeah...the experiment is still early for me. Just started last week. I'm committed to it though...will be interesting to see how far I can take it.

One thing I feel strongly about is that people get way too hung up on particular stats like # of HR hit in a season. Like you said PT is much more talented than real life pitching-wise. So you shouldn't be comparing your players HR totals to real life. You will be dissappointed. Instead you should compare them to your current league.

Learned this last week because on my team of pure-HR sluggers, no one hit more than 30 or so. I was disappointed at first but then realized I was actually leading my league in HR. It's all relative.

The thing is, power hitters really can be crippled by bad batting averages. Even if they have a lot of power and walk a lot, they can struggle to have an OBP over .300 or slug over .400 if they're hitting .200.

zrog2000 · 01-14-2019, 06:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chazzycat

Shouldn't you kinda expect everyone to drop off when they go up though? Is there evidence these types of players actually drop off more than others over a large sample size?

I've found that players with higher contact and/or avoid K do much better as they move up. Someone like JD Martinez does well, while Judge has trouble even being playable. And I have a player that is killing my team at diamond in Vern Stephens which is a real shame because he was so good at lower levels.

chazzycat · 01-14-2019, 06:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Will_L

I stuck Harper in the leadoff spot as DH on two of my teams because of his walks and OBP. He's far from very good though lol.

You're not alone, I have read a lot of comments on here saying these types of players tend to struggle.

Every time I read them, I think about park factors. If the parks are neutral, or more favorable to contact than power, they are not a good fit. These are extreme players and belong in extreme parks to give them the best chance to succeed.

chazzycat · 01-14-2019, 06:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by <Pion>

Of course everyone drops off, that's why you get better players and players like Muncy/Harper/Stanton are out of a job. Going back to the original post, it was exciting to get a gold, but disappointing that the gold was either already or one season away from being out of any value. I can find silver players that will outproduce them at Diamond level (as well as every other level), and a player like Muncy does not have any value above the Sell now price point.

sorry I didn't mean to derail your thread. I would have been stoked to pull Muncy & Harper for that team was all I was trying to say

<Pion> · 01-14-2019, 06:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zrog2000

I've found that players with higher contact and/or avoid K do much better as they move up. Someone like JD Martinez does well, while Judge has trouble even being playable. And I have a player that is killing my team at diamond in Vern Stephens which is a real shame because he was so good at lower levels.

IMO, JD Martinez does well because he did so much better at every level than a guy like Judge, not because he "holds" value better. As far as OPS, Judge has dropped 80 points from Bronze to Perfect whereas JD has dropped 130 points. JD is still a viable player at Perfect because he is just a better player at every level and is still good enough (even though dropping 130 points) to still start at those levels. Judge on the other hand only has to drop 80 points from his Bronze productivity to become a player that should no longer be a starter.

Bunktown Ballers · 01-14-2019, 07:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

If you buy a regular pack, even if you get a "bad" gold card, it's basically like playing the lottery and you get a "free play" draw. So yeah, not going to help you out, but you at least get a free pack out of it that maybe you get a better draw from next time.

I have never been around a Diamond card. Wouldn't know what it'd look like on my team. Closest I have is an Arenado (98) rated card. Rating still dont carry much weight tho. I've had 70 rated cards out perform 80's & 90's. I know you rarely if ever have players perform like his real life numbers. You might meet HR totals but Average, RBI, SB's no where near. HACK WILSON card where he hit .356 50+ HR 190 RBI dont even sniff close to that. Still gun to play. Pitchers Cards are worse...Not as accurate as OOTP game is by a long shot.
BB
CHICAGO BLACK SOX

01-14-2019, 01:45 PM	#1
<Pion> All Star Starter Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 1,428	Excitement! Quickly followed by reality That excitement you feel when a purchased pack shows you've got a gold, diamond, or <gasp> a perfect. Then reality sets in when you find out the player you got is an underachiever that will stink up the joint and won't fetch even the low "sell now" price if put up for auction. Latest packs had a diamond and several golds, but the diamond was Blake Snell and the golds were Max Muncy, HoJo, Bryce Harper (not a fan). Muncy is hitting .125 and leads the new guys. Stanton (75) is second at .125, while HoJo and Harper have combined for zero hits. Oh well, such is luck. Win some, lose some, and lose some even more

01-14-2019, 01:49 PM	#2
Matt Arnold OOTP Developer Join Date: Jun 2009 Location: Here and there Posts: 14,136	If you buy a regular pack, even if you get a "bad" gold card, it's basically like playing the lottery and you get a "free play" draw. So yeah, not going to help you out, but you at least get a free pack out of it that maybe you get a better draw from next time.

01-14-2019, 01:57 PM	#4
chazzycat All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 1,685	Muncy-Harper-Stanton can be nice players in the right situation. Those guys don't measure success by number of hits, it's all about walks & homers.

01-14-2019, 01:59 PM	#5
spleen1015 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jan 2002 Posts: 5,951	It's like having 3 teams and when you open your initial packs and the 1 gold you get is a RP for all 3 teams. That happened to me.