Overvalued Cards?

AdamD · 12-03-2018, 02:22 PM

In response to the "Undervalued Cards?" thread what are some of the higher rated cards that have turned out to be duds.

In the beta I opened a diamond Luis Severino that performed more like a silver level card. I think he was 9-7 with a 5.something ERA before he hit the AH for me.

Kem · 12-03-2018, 02:23 PM

Dallas Keuchel played absolutely abysmally for me for several days before I put him in the reserve.

One Post Wonder · 12-03-2018, 02:29 PM

I think most diamonds are overvalued, not just one or two. Look at any standard diamond and pretty much every time, you'll find an equivalent or better gold card. Or silver card. Or sometimes even a bronze card.

It makes me wonder if the bronze/silver/diamond/perfect minimum price limits are needed, or if each card should be allowed to find its own value at the AH.

Whoofe · 12-03-2018, 02:29 PM

half the RPs I've ever used....

and then the other half, half of the time

<Pion> · 12-03-2018, 02:54 PM

What defines over valued? Is it the overall rating or diamond/gold/etc, or is it that people are asking for too much for a not so good player.

If the former, I would say Kris Bryant comes to mind as he is a diamond that habitually under performs. Asking for anything over his "Sell Value" is too much. His "Sell Value" seems more like a bargain for the owner given his lack of output.

Fireanty · 12-03-2018, 02:54 PM

96 Live Kluber's HR/9 is high, 91 Live Freeman doesn't handle RHP well.

Fireanty · 12-03-2018, 02:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by <Pion>

What defines over valued? Is it the overall rating or diamond/gold/etc, or is it that people are asking for too much for a not so good player.

If the former, I would say Kris Bryant comes to mind as he is a diamond that habitually under performs. Asking for anything over his "Sell Value" is too much. His "Sell Value" seems more like a bargain for the owner given his lack of output.

My Kris Bryant 0-7 to start the season.

ASURay · 12-03-2018, 03:24 PM

I'm skeptical of any LIVE card. Historical cards with the same OVR usually have much better ratings/performance. I think the AH values reflect this. You can get gold LIVE cards in the 80-84 range at pretty low prices now.

Weaseltail · 12-03-2018, 03:45 PM

Most of the gold RP/CL cards are overvalued even at 1,000 PP. There are plenty of silver (and even a few bronze) cards with equal stats/performance for a fraction of the cost.

chazzycat · 12-03-2018, 04:33 PM

What kind of sample sizes are these observations being based on?

I just started perfect team last week, so I just have one season of data. Even a whole season is a woefully small sample to draw any meaningful conclusions.

Whoofe · 12-03-2018, 04:43 PM

open beta had something like 3 seasons, and there was a closed beta before that

The Melancholic · 12-03-2018, 06:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by <Pion>

What defines over valued? Is it the overall rating or diamond/gold/etc, or is it that people are asking for too much for a not so good player.
.

The latter is really the only thing that should matter when it comes to looking for an under- or overvalued player. Everyone seems to realize that live cards are seldom as good as comparably-rated cards from the other sets, but it's usually reflected in their auction prices being a lot lower; the question should be whether it goes low enough to make them good value for the money you'll pay. Do you really need to spend 20k to get Johnny Bench, or will Yasmani Grandal for 2k be fine?

uschi_baerchen · 12-04-2018, 08:18 AM

Yasmani Grandal for 2k is a bargain.

uschi_baerchen · 12-04-2018, 08:27 AM

He could even start 0 - 10, now that he has collected 7 haymakers already. It is simply that the small law of high numbers hits starting 500 PAs or so. I would guess, that Bryant is in the class of Stargell, Judge or Rose, in other words: Keep him or replace him by Trout if you have another CF as good as Trout.

Kushiel · 12-04-2018, 08:30 AM

All card ratings are subjective. We have no empirical evidence that any type of card is better than another type. What one player thinks is garbage I may think is gorgeous and vice versa. Beauty as well as value is in the eye of the beholder.

All perfect and diamonds are overpriced.on the AH. That fact alone colors the opinion of all of us.

Dogberry99 · 12-04-2018, 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kushiel

All card ratings are subjective. We have no empirical evidence that any type of card is better than another type. What one player thinks is garbage I may think is gorgeous and vice versa. Beauty as well as value is in the eye of the beholder.

And that is precisely why this thread exists, so that we can compare our subjective opinions about cards

uvm87 · 12-05-2018, 12:18 AM

Am I too impatient? He is rated a 75.

128 PAs - .177/.260/.292 -0.7 WAR 51 OPS+

Even as a platoon player against RHP
98 PAs - .205/.272/.313

The Melancholic · 12-05-2018, 01:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by uschi_baerchen

Yasmani Grandal for 2k is a bargain.

As it happens, I just got him for about 1700 a few hours after writing that post.

chazzycat · 12-06-2018, 05:07 PM

All of my players have been in the ballpark of my expectations so far, with one exception: Aaron Hicks. He is hitting below the Mendoza line and WAR is approaching -1.

Gonna let him ride though. Small sample size and whatnot.

Will_L · 12-06-2018, 08:08 PM

Moved Pedro Guerrero for 30k BIN this morning after dropping it from my higher initial offering on Tuesday, thought I'd have to keep dropping the price for another week at least. I hope he performs great for the buyer. Spent the 27k PP along with 3k PP that I had for 25 regular packs and one gold pack but not opening them until Sunday since I want to keep all three of my teams intact for the season.

12-03-2018, 02:22 PM	#1
AdamD Minors (Single A) Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 49	Overvalued Cards? In response to the "Undervalued Cards?" thread what are some of the higher rated cards that have turned out to be duds. In the beta I opened a diamond Luis Severino that performed more like a silver level card. I think he was 9-7 with a 5.something ERA before he hit the AH for me. Last edited by AdamD; 12-03-2018 at 02:26 PM.

12-04-2018, 08:30 AM	#15
Kushiel All Star Starter Join Date: Apr 2015 Location: Deep in the Heart of Texas Posts: 1,697	All card ratings are subjective. We have no empirical evidence that any type of card is better than another type. What one player thinks is garbage I may think is gorgeous and vice versa. Beauty as well as value is in the eye of the beholder. All perfect and diamonds are overpriced.on the AH. That fact alone colors the opinion of all of us. __________________ *Favente Deo supero*

12-05-2018, 12:18 AM	#17
uvm87 Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Dec 2015 Posts: 42	Anyone else having a problem with Benintendi? Am I too impatient? He is rated a 75. 128 PAs - .177/.260/.292 -0.7 WAR 51 OPS+ Even as a platoon player against RHP 98 PAs - .205/.272/.313

12-06-2018, 05:07 PM	#19
chazzycat All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 1,685	All of my players have been in the ballpark of my expectations so far, with one exception: Aaron Hicks. He is hitting below the Mendoza line and WAR is approaching -1. Gonna let him ride though. Small sample size and whatnot. Last edited by chazzycat; 12-06-2018 at 09:18 PM.

12-03-2018, 02:23 PM	#2
Kem Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 24	Dallas Keuchel played absolutely abysmally for me for several days before I put him in the reserve.

12-03-2018, 02:29 PM	#3
One Post Wonder All Star Reserve Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 538	I think most diamonds are overvalued, not just one or two. Look at any standard diamond and pretty much every time, you'll find an equivalent or better gold card. Or silver card. Or sometimes even a bronze card. It makes me wonder if the bronze/silver/diamond/perfect minimum price limits are needed, or if each card should be allowed to find its own value at the AH.

12-03-2018, 02:29 PM	#4
Whoofe All Star Reserve Join Date: Mar 2016 Posts: 590	half the RPs I've ever used.... and then the other half, half of the time

12-03-2018, 02:54 PM	#5
<Pion> All Star Starter Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 1,428	What defines over valued? Is it the overall rating or diamond/gold/etc, or is it that people are asking for too much for a not so good player. If the former, I would say Kris Bryant comes to mind as he is a diamond that habitually under performs. Asking for anything over his "Sell Value" is too much. His "Sell Value" seems more like a bargain for the owner given his lack of output.

12-03-2018, 02:54 PM	#6
Fireanty Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Dec 2018 Posts: 45	96 Live Kluber's HR/9 is high, 91 Live Freeman doesn't handle RHP well.

12-03-2018, 03:24 PM	#8
ASURay Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Jul 2010 Location: NE Posts: 212	I'm skeptical of any LIVE card. Historical cards with the same OVR usually have much better ratings/performance. I think the AH values reflect this. You can get gold LIVE cards in the 80-84 range at pretty low prices now.

12-03-2018, 03:45 PM	#9
Weaseltail Minors (Double A) Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 127	Most of the gold RP/CL cards are overvalued even at 1,000 PP. There are plenty of silver (and even a few bronze) cards with equal stats/performance for a fraction of the cost.

12-03-2018, 04:33 PM	#10
chazzycat All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 1,685	What kind of sample sizes are these observations being based on? I just started perfect team last week, so I just have one season of data. Even a whole season is a woefully small sample to draw any meaningful conclusions.

12-03-2018, 04:43 PM	#11
Whoofe All Star Reserve Join Date: Mar 2016 Posts: 590	open beta had something like 3 seasons, and there was a closed beta before that

12-04-2018, 08:18 AM	#13
uschi_baerchen Minors (Single A) Join Date: Nov 2018 Location: Buchholz in der Nordheide Posts: 91	Yasmani Grandal for 2k is a bargain.

12-04-2018, 08:27 AM	#14
uschi_baerchen Minors (Single A) Join Date: Nov 2018 Location: Buchholz in der Nordheide Posts: 91	He could even start 0 - 10, now that he has collected 7 haymakers already. It is simply that the small law of high numbers hits starting 500 PAs or so. I would guess, that Bryant is in the class of Stargell, Judge or Rose, in other words: Keep him or replace him by Trout if you have another CF as good as Trout.

12-06-2018, 08:08 PM	#20
Will_L All Star Reserve Join Date: Mar 2018 Location: Laurelton, NY Posts: 590	Moved Pedro Guerrero for 30k BIN this morning after dropping it from my higher initial offering on Tuesday, thought I'd have to keep dropping the price for another week at least. I hope he performs great for the buyer. Spent the 27k PP along with 3k PP that I had for 25 regular packs and one gold pack but not opening them until Sunday since I want to keep all three of my teams intact for the season.