2001 - 2007 MLB Draft Picks (Top 5)

5cards · 07-23-2012, 02:53 PM

This is tied to this thread but I wanted to put it separate so as not to clutter the other thread.

The question that I asked myself is this: What became of the top 5 draft picks from 2001 to 2010. After a bit of thought I decided to cut it to 2007 since it seemed to me that it was reasonable to stop 5 years back since the likelihood of players still being in the minors would increase.

The basic information is below. A couple quick notes...

5 of the 35 listed here are no longer in baseball. 9 of them are still in the minors or in Japan. That leaves 21. Of that 21, seven are playing to what I would call full potential.

The premise I am looking at... what is the likelihood that a Top-5 pick in the draft will wind up producing to full potential in their career? One would expect a Top-5 pick would have the best chance to succeed in the MLB given how highly-scouted they should be.

Anyways, here's the results... If anything is inaccurate please let me know!

2001 MLB Draft:

1) Joe Mauer (MIN) - .324, 90 HR, 596 RBI
2) Mark Prior (CHI) - Currently at AAA Pawtucket
3) Dewon Brazelton (TAM) - No longer in game
4) Gavin Floyd (PHI) - 65-63, 4.50 ERA
5) Mark Teixeira (TEX) - .280, 333 HR, 1082 RBI

2002 MLB Draft:

1) Brian Bullington (PIT) - Currently in Japan - This one sticks out because I am a former Ball State student and I remember the hype when he was drafted first.
2) B.J. Upton (TAM) - .256, 99 HR, 405 RBI
3) Christopher Gruler (CIN) - No longer in game (Injuries)
4) Adam Loewen (BAL) - Currently at AAA-Buffalo
5) Clint Everts (MON now WAS) - Currently at AAA-Las Vegas

2003 MLB Draft:

1) Delmon Young (TAM) - .286, 81 HR, 449 RBI
2) Rickie Weeks (MIL) - .249, 118 HR, 347 RBI
3) Kyle Sleeth (DET) - No longer in game
4) Timothy Stauffer (SD) - Currently at A+ Lake Elsinore
5) Christopher Lubanski (KC) - No longer in game

2004 MLB Draft:

1) Matt Bush (SD) - No longer in game
2) Justin Verlander (DET) - 118-62, 3.42 ERA
3) Philip Humber (NYM) - 15-15, 4.68 ERA
4) Jeff Niemann (TAM) - 40-26, 4.11 ERA
5) Mark Rogers (MIL) - Currently at AAA-Nashville

2005 MLB Draft:

1) Justin Upton (ARI) - .277, 99 HR, 337 RBI
2) Alex Gordon (KC) - .266, 73 HR, 283 RBI
3) Jeff Clement (SEA) - Currently at AAA-Indianapolis
4) Ryan Zimmerman (WAS) - .287, 142 HR, 548 RBI
5) Ryan Braun (MIL) - .312, 187 HR, 596 RBI

2006 MLB Draft:

1) Luke Hochevar (KC) - 36-51, 5.23 ERA
2) Greg Reynolds (COL) - Currently at AAA-Round Rock
3) Evan Longoria (TAM) - .276, 117 HR, 420 RBI
4) Brad Lincoln (PIT) - 7-9, 1 SV, 4.70 ERA
5) Brandon Morrow (SEA) - 36-34, 16 SV, 4.19 ERA

2007 MLB Draft:

1) David Price (TAM) - 54-30, 3.25 ERA
2) Mike Moustakas (KC) - .267, 21 HR, 80 RBI
3) Josh Vitters (CHN) - Currently at AAA-Iowa
4) Daniel Moskos (PIT) - Currently at AAA-Charlotte
5) Matt Wieters (BAL) - .262, 54 HR, 212 RBI

RPage · 07-23-2012, 03:38 PM

Mark Prior - Currently in AAA Pawtucket.

5cards · 07-23-2012, 03:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RPage

Mark Prior - Currently in AAA Pawtucket.

Thank you for the update! I'll edit and correct for that.

SteveSommer · 07-23-2012, 04:11 PM

There are some interesting probabilities at the bottom of this older article from baseball analysts.

eriqjaffe · 07-23-2012, 04:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 5cards

5 of the 35 listed here are no longer in baseball. 9 of them are still in the minors or in Japan. That leaves 21.

Nearly 10% of them are in the White Sox rotation.

Pacoheadley · 07-23-2012, 05:36 PM

I wish Delmon Young was currently out of professional baseball... I can't stand him, terrible player. The day my Tigers traded for him... Sigh.

Oh, and Tim Stauffer is currently in the minors, but I think that is due to injury if I'm not mistaken.

5cards · 07-23-2012, 05:44 PM

You are correct - Stauffer is on the 60-day DL rehabbing an injury. I really didn't dive deeper than getting career stats if they are currently in the majors or noting where they are - if even in the game at all.

olivertheorem · 07-23-2012, 09:56 PM

The question, as it pertains to OOTP, is whether a player didn't actually have the potential in the first place (mis-scouted) or failed to develop to that potential (talent change randomness, failed development). Hard to tell from real life, given the variables involved.

The Wolf · 07-23-2012, 10:13 PM

Good, thought-provoking data. Thanks.

07-23-2012, 02:53 PM	#1
5cards All Star Reserve Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 516	2001 - 2007 MLB Draft Picks (Top 5) This is tied to this thread but I wanted to put it separate so as not to clutter the other thread. The question that I asked myself is this: What became of the top 5 draft picks from 2001 to 2010. After a bit of thought I decided to cut it to 2007 since it seemed to me that it was reasonable to stop 5 years back since the likelihood of players still being in the minors would increase. The basic information is below. A couple quick notes... 5 of the 35 listed here are no longer in baseball. 9 of them are still in the minors or in Japan. That leaves 21. Of that 21, seven are playing to what I would call full potential. The premise I am looking at... what is the likelihood that a Top-5 pick in the draft will wind up producing to full potential in their career? One would expect a Top-5 pick would have the best chance to succeed in the MLB given how highly-scouted they should be. Anyways, here's the results... If anything is inaccurate please let me know! 2001 MLB Draft: 1) Joe Mauer (MIN) - .324, 90 HR, 596 RBI 2) Mark Prior (CHI) - Currently at AAA Pawtucket 3) Dewon Brazelton (TAM) - No longer in game 4) Gavin Floyd (PHI) - 65-63, 4.50 ERA 5) Mark Teixeira (TEX) - .280, 333 HR, 1082 RBI 2002 MLB Draft: 1) Brian Bullington (PIT) - Currently in Japan - This one sticks out because I am a former Ball State student and I remember the hype when he was drafted first. 2) B.J. Upton (TAM) - .256, 99 HR, 405 RBI 3) Christopher Gruler (CIN) - No longer in game (Injuries) 4) Adam Loewen (BAL) - Currently at AAA-Buffalo 5) Clint Everts (MON now WAS) - Currently at AAA-Las Vegas 2003 MLB Draft: 1) Delmon Young (TAM) - .286, 81 HR, 449 RBI 2) Rickie Weeks (MIL) - .249, 118 HR, 347 RBI 3) Kyle Sleeth (DET) - No longer in game 4) Timothy Stauffer (SD) - Currently at A+ Lake Elsinore 5) Christopher Lubanski (KC) - No longer in game 2004 MLB Draft: 1) Matt Bush (SD) - No longer in game 2) Justin Verlander (DET) - 118-62, 3.42 ERA 3) Philip Humber (NYM) - 15-15, 4.68 ERA 4) Jeff Niemann (TAM) - 40-26, 4.11 ERA 5) Mark Rogers (MIL) - Currently at AAA-Nashville 2005 MLB Draft: 1) Justin Upton (ARI) - .277, 99 HR, 337 RBI 2) Alex Gordon (KC) - .266, 73 HR, 283 RBI 3) Jeff Clement (SEA) - Currently at AAA-Indianapolis 4) Ryan Zimmerman (WAS) - .287, 142 HR, 548 RBI 5) Ryan Braun (MIL) - .312, 187 HR, 596 RBI 2006 MLB Draft: 1) Luke Hochevar (KC) - 36-51, 5.23 ERA 2) Greg Reynolds (COL) - Currently at AAA-Round Rock 3) Evan Longoria (TAM) - .276, 117 HR, 420 RBI 4) Brad Lincoln (PIT) - 7-9, 1 SV, 4.70 ERA 5) Brandon Morrow (SEA) - 36-34, 16 SV, 4.19 ERA 2007 MLB Draft: 1) David Price (TAM) - 54-30, 3.25 ERA 2) Mike Moustakas (KC) - .267, 21 HR, 80 RBI 3) Josh Vitters (CHN) - Currently at AAA-Iowa 4) Daniel Moskos (PIT) - Currently at AAA-Charlotte 5) Matt Wieters (BAL) - .262, 54 HR, 212 RBI Last edited by 5cards; 07-23-2012 at 03:49 PM.

07-23-2012, 03:38 PM	#2
RPage Minors (Single A) Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 58	Mark Prior Mark Prior - Currently in AAA Pawtucket. __________________ RPage "Don't worry about your seeing eye dog back here ump. I fed and watered him for you."

07-23-2012, 04:11 PM	#4
SteveSommer Bat Boy Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 6	Nice Research There are some interesting probabilities at the bottom of this older article from baseball analysts.

07-23-2012, 05:36 PM	#6
Pacoheadley All Star Reserve Join Date: Feb 2012 Location: Kincheloe, MI Posts: 518	I wish Delmon Young was currently out of professional baseball... I can't stand him, terrible player. The day my Tigers traded for him... Sigh. Oh, and Tim Stauffer is currently in the minors, but I think that is due to injury if I'm not mistaken. Last edited by Pacoheadley; 07-23-2012 at 05:38 PM.

07-23-2012, 05:44 PM	#7
5cards All Star Reserve Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 516	You are correct - Stauffer is on the 60-day DL rehabbing an injury. I really didn't dive deeper than getting career stats if they are currently in the majors or noting where they are - if even in the game at all.

07-23-2012, 09:56 PM	#8
olivertheorem All Star Starter Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 1,919	The question, as it pertains to OOTP, is whether a player didn't actually have the potential in the first place (mis-scouted) or failed to develop to that potential (talent change randomness, failed development). Hard to tell from real life, given the variables involved.