To Trade or Not to Trade?

[chazzycat]

Originally Posted by thklein

I have my doubts about FIP, but it's certainly useful.

Yeah, that's the gist of it. I don't judge my pitchers solely on FIP. It's just another useful stat to help figure out what's going on.

I forgot to mention another critical point - in OOTP, FIP is probably even more useful than real life, because FIP is basically how the game models pitching. The three main pitcher ratings affect the exact same three things that FIP uses as its inputs - strikeouts, homers, walks. The game doesn't have a BABIP rating for pitchers at all. That is a hitter skill only, as far as the game engine is concerned.

[thklein]

Originally Posted by chazzycat

Yeah, that's the gist of it. I don't judge my pitchers solely on FIP. It's just another useful stat to help figure out what's going on.

I forgot to mention another critical point - in OOTP, FIP is probably even more useful than real life, because FIP is basically how the game models pitching. The three main pitcher ratings affect the exact same three things that FIP uses as its inputs - strikeouts, homers, walks. The game doesn't have a BABIP rating for pitchers at all. That is a hitter skill only, as far as the game engine is concerned.

Do you know if the game models for quality of contact? Are there certain pitchers that are better at inducing weak conduct than others?

[chazzycat]

I don't believe so. If you play around with the player editor, you will definitely find a "BABIP" rating for hitters - but it doesn't exist for pitchers. If there is anything like that, it's deep down in the code where we don't have access to see it.

[greenOak]

There are definitely pitchers whose ERA is consistently lower than their FIP and vice versa, but it usually takes multiple seasons of pitching to find out who those pitchers actually are. FIP is a much better indicator of performance than ERA over half a season.

Also, as I understand it movement is kind of the "quality of contact" rating for pitchers in OOTP.

[chazzycat]

Originally Posted by greenOak

Also, as I understand it movement is kind of the "quality of contact" rating for pitchers in OOTP.

In terms of home runs vs all other types of contact, that is correct. But I have never seen any evidence that the movement rating affects anything other than HRs allowed.