Qs re: Editor mode ratings, Current > Overall

BringBackTheSonics · 11-06-2018, 01:28 PM

What is the "story" and what is likely to happen (player development) to a player with higher current (Editor Mode 1-200) ratings than potential ratings?

Preface:

I'm referring to the ratings in Editor Mode - my understanding is these are NOT clouded by scouting ability
I understand that some player abilities will change randomly over time
I've read the Online Manual sections on ratings (Overview, Batting, Pitching, OVR & POT, Development) but did not see an A to this Q
I've read other forum threads, but most were about OVR vs POT star (or other scouting-based) ratings

In Editor Mode, I've noticed that some players have current ratings that are higher than their potential ratings (the actual 1-200 ratings, not the scout's PERCEPTION of their ratings).
I'd like to understand what is going on and what is likely to happen.

Will potential "catch up" to current? (maybe reflecting a random ability increase?)
Will current eventually "return to Earth" and end up back down near potential? (like a fluke, "career year" - e.g., Brady Anderson 1996)
OTHER?!

For simplicity, I'll refer to the 1-200 Editor Mode hitting ratings of: CONTACT / POWER / EYE
Also assuming the same principles apply to pitching ratings...

SCENARIO 1: Younger, 20 year-old Prospect, Current < Potential

Example:
Current: 85 / 75 / 50
Potential: 135 / 110 / 120

In this case I assume that because the player is still developing, (with the right coaching, playing time, etc) the "Current" values will rise until they reach "Potential" and plateau. Then eventually decline as they age.

SCENARIO 2: Older 38 year-old Veteran, Current < Potential

Example:
Current: 100 / 90 / 110
Potential: 120 / 130 / 120

Here I assume this is an "over-the-hill" player who has aged out of their peak. The "Potential" represents their highest possibility during their prime, but the "Current" is lower because they are now in decline. If that's right, Current will continue to decline as the player continues to age.

If correct, the narratives above help me make sense of the Current < Potential Editor Mode (1-200) ratings.

SCENARIO 3: What's less clear to me is what it means when Current > Potential

Any thoughts appreciated, especially those backed up by results of SIMs of these types of Current > Potential players.

NoOne · 11-06-2018, 03:37 PM

Potential will not be changed by this. that's TCR if it occurs or injury-related type cause. maybe it's perfomance based? but that wouldn't fit the rest of how the game works... or at least it isn't likely to be a huge portion of the cause. even so it's 5/200... not a big deal

in general, they can go +5. Now, things like contact have multiple ratings that add up to the contact displayed in profile -- Stuff and Movement are similar in nature too. with contact, if power, babip and avoid k's are all +5, you will get a >+5 on total contact.

that's the first thing to go with aging (+5). i think it dips more easily back to ~max current ability.. once you see that +5 go, you know that the forces that maintain ratings are starting to be overcome by the forces that reduce ratings over time. this is my warning bell to trade them, if i haven't planned it out, yet.

movement and stuff are a bit different. stuff is influenced by velo and i think gb% (read note in editor). Movement is affected by GB% for sure.

so the 'raw' stuff ratings you see in editor are not used by the game, alone.

turn on 100% scouting accuracy to see these effects. change GB% and watch Mov change real-time. change velo and watch stuff change.

you can also see how these pitches are better for vsL or vsR by watching how split changes when changings pitches and vlues of raw stuff. same wtih arm slot used.

with 100% scouting on, you can change 1 thing at a time, check profile and repeat to learn all the interelationships. note: sometimes you need to leave screen and come bakc to see changes in estimates and the like in editor. e.g. change # of balks and i don't think that changes the estimates... same with HBP value for batters. it won't change the obp estimate without leaving and coming back...

if you ever see "zeros" or no change, try flipping screens... profile to editor is fine, no need to leave profile completely.

you can hide >max values, if you prefer, in global settings

Scen 1:

playing time helps, but it isn't the main rail of development. the manual does say performance and game time helps a bit. it doesn't say it is a deal-breaker on development if they don't.

performance is virtually nothing to do with development, imo, and logically should not. i've had countless HoF players have terrible MiL careers. it is simply not that big of a deal relative to all other factors invovled.

135pot? in past 128 is max (255/2 +1 = 128.... just as 100/2 +1 = 51 in 1-100 scale)

that's new if not misread... again related to the 3 things that make up contact. contact itself is just for your eye. the three components of contact are used when called for. (k's, hr, hits etc... maybe some overlap, but not much as far as probability of results are concerened -- each thing controls the % of teh various outcomes related when relevant)

if he's 75/135, i'd wager a ton of money he makes it the rest of the way... lingering at ~50 or less out of 100 and i worry by the time they are 24ish. not the end of road, but imo, % of development gets increasingly less likely.

age is the real concern and how far they have to go. the last ~1/5th of ratings likely develop better in MLB than AAA. 24-26 is the last gasp, and ~26-27 is near zero but still can occur.

26-27 and 90-99% developed, they will likely fill out, but 1 pitch thats 50-60% developed to potential at 26-27 is almost certainly not going to develop. i have seen a ~27 year old develop their third pitch before, but it's not something you can rely on.

scen2:

old, never going to get back to potential.. just figure once they start going downhill the only thing you can hope for is a slow decline.. maybe a few 'holding pattern' years etc...

27-30 you often see a dip before any precipitous drop that will eventually come in their 30's.

i don't believe the ratings are linear scale. dropping "x" from 81/100 and dropping that same value from 61/100 are 2 different animals. if you become with what values are more consistent above a certain threshold, that's the time you should worry -- when a rating goes across that threshol.

As far as last question... pot+5 is the real Max... understand that and all is fine. you don't often see it with scouting inaccuracy. anything near max is essentially the same most of the time. (non-aged players) ratings that are a conglomerate of others may be >+5 above potential.

again, if you don't like you can turn it off. profile will never display >max if you want. i guess the major benefit is simply a little heads up to aging effect that would normally be clouded if you turned off >max visibility.

11-06-2018, 01:28 PM	#1
BringBackTheSonics Bat Boy Join Date: Oct 2018 Posts: 5	Qs re: Editor mode ratings, Current > Overall What is the "story" and what is likely to happen (player development) to a player with higher current (Editor Mode 1-200) ratings than potential ratings? Preface: I'm referring to the ratings in Editor Mode - my understanding is these are NOT clouded by scouting ability I understand that some player abilities will change randomly over time I've read the Online Manual sections on ratings (Overview, Batting, Pitching, OVR & POT, Development) but did not see an A to this Q I've read other forum threads, but most were about OVR vs POT star (or other scouting-based) ratings In Editor Mode, I've noticed that some players have current ratings that are higher than their potential ratings (the actual 1-200 ratings, not the scout's PERCEPTION of their ratings). I'd like to understand what is going on and what is likely to happen. Will potential "catch up" to current? (maybe reflecting a random ability increase?) Will current eventually "return to Earth" and end up back down near potential? (like a fluke, "career year" - e.g., Brady Anderson 1996) OTHER?! For simplicity, I'll refer to the 1-200 Editor Mode hitting ratings of: CONTACT / POWER / EYE Also assuming the same principles apply to pitching ratings... SCENARIO 1: Younger, 20 year-old Prospect, Current < Potential Example: Current: 85 / 75 / 50 Potential: 135 / 110 / 120 In this case I assume that because the player is still developing, (with the right coaching, playing time, etc) the "Current" values will rise until they reach "Potential" and plateau. Then eventually decline as they age. SCENARIO 2: Older 38 year-old Veteran, Current < Potential Example: Current: 100 / 90 / 110 Potential: 120 / 130 / 120 Here I assume this is an "over-the-hill" player who has aged out of their peak. The "Potential" represents their highest possibility during their prime, but the "Current" is lower because they are now in decline. If that's right, Current will continue to decline as the player continues to age. If correct, the narratives above help me make sense of the Current < Potential Editor Mode (1-200) ratings. SCENARIO 3: What's less clear to me is what it means when Current > Potential Any thoughts appreciated, especially those backed up by results of SIMs of these types of Current > Potential players. Last edited by BringBackTheSonics; 11-07-2018 at 11:59 PM.

11-06-2018, 03:37 PM	#2
NoOne Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,167	Potential will not be changed by this. that's TCR if it occurs or injury-related type cause. maybe it's perfomance based? but that wouldn't fit the rest of how the game works... or at least it isn't likely to be a huge portion of the cause. even so it's 5/200... not a big deal in general, they can go +5. Now, things like contact have multiple ratings that add up to the contact displayed in profile -- Stuff and Movement are similar in nature too. with contact, if power, babip and avoid k's are all +5, you will get a >+5 on total contact. that's the first thing to go with aging (+5). i think it dips more easily back to ~max current ability.. once you see that +5 go, you know that the forces that maintain ratings are starting to be overcome by the forces that reduce ratings over time. this is my warning bell to trade them, if i haven't planned it out, yet. movement and stuff are a bit different. stuff is influenced by velo and i think gb% (read note in editor). Movement is affected by GB% for sure. so the 'raw' stuff ratings you see in editor are not used by the game, alone. turn on 100% scouting accuracy to see these effects. change GB% and watch Mov change real-time. change velo and watch stuff change. you can also see how these pitches are better for vsL or vsR by watching how split changes when changings pitches and vlues of raw stuff. same wtih arm slot used. with 100% scouting on, you can change 1 thing at a time, check profile and repeat to learn all the interelationships. note: sometimes you need to leave screen and come bakc to see changes in estimates and the like in editor. e.g. change # of balks and i don't think that changes the estimates... same with HBP value for batters. it won't change the obp estimate without leaving and coming back... if you ever see "zeros" or no change, try flipping screens... profile to editor is fine, no need to leave profile completely. you can hide >max values, if you prefer, in global settings Scen 1: playing time helps, but it isn't the main rail of development. the manual does say performance and game time helps a bit. it doesn't say it is a deal-breaker on development if they don't. performance is virtually nothing to do with development, imo, and logically should not. i've had countless HoF players have terrible MiL careers. it is simply not that big of a deal relative to all other factors invovled. 135pot? in past 128 is max (255/2 +1 = 128.... just as 100/2 +1 = 51 in 1-100 scale) that's new if not misread... again related to the 3 things that make up contact. contact itself is just for your eye. the three components of contact are used when called for. (k's, hr, hits etc... maybe some overlap, but not much as far as probability of results are concerened -- each thing controls the % of teh various outcomes related when relevant) if he's 75/135, i'd wager a ton of money he makes it the rest of the way... lingering at ~50 or less out of 100 and i worry by the time they are 24ish. not the end of road, but imo, % of development gets increasingly less likely. age is the real concern and how far they have to go. the last ~1/5th of ratings likely develop better in MLB than AAA. 24-26 is the last gasp, and ~26-27 is near zero but still can occur. 26-27 and 90-99% developed, they will likely fill out, but 1 pitch thats 50-60% developed to potential at 26-27 is almost certainly not going to develop. i have seen a ~27 year old develop their third pitch before, but it's not something you can rely on. scen2: old, never going to get back to potential.. just figure once they start going downhill the only thing you can hope for is a slow decline.. maybe a few 'holding pattern' years etc... 27-30 you often see a dip before any precipitous drop that will eventually come in their 30's. i don't believe the ratings are linear scale. dropping "x" from 81/100 and dropping that same value from 61/100 are 2 different animals. if you become with what values are more consistent above a certain threshold, that's the time you should worry -- when a rating goes across that threshol. As far as last question... pot+5 is the real Max... understand that and all is fine. you don't often see it with scouting inaccuracy. anything near max is essentially the same most of the time. (non-aged players) ratings that are a conglomerate of others may be >+5 above potential. again, if you don't like you can turn it off. profile will never display >max if you want. i guess the major benefit is simply a little heads up to aging effect that would normally be clouded if you turned off >max visibility. Last edited by NoOne; 11-06-2018 at 03:42 PM.