Orcin Returns

[Orcin]

May 11, 2015

Subject: Week 5 Notes

Record: 19-13, .594, 3 GB
Position: 2nd place (behind Chicago)
Runs Scored: 150 – 4th in Federal
Runs Allowed: 118 – 3rd in Federal
Defense: .722 – 1st in Federal (3rd in CBA)
Power Ranking: 107.9 (9th in CBA)
Owner Mood: Happy; Fan Interest: 87/100 (+2)

• Last week (3-3): 2-1 vs. Houston, 1-2 vs. Dallas
• Orlando’s Keith “Silencer” Wilson (3-1, 1.94) threw his second shutout of the year. You can look it up: I predicted that he was going to be the real deal back in 2008.
• LF Ray Banks has suffered an injury setback and will miss an extra week or two.
• Mike Anderson will be pushed back a day to Thursday and Gentry will move up.
• 05/05: LOU 4, HOU 3 – Arkle bases-loaded single in 9th for GWRBI
• 05/06: LOU 1, HOU 0 – Gentry 8 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 3 K, W (4-2, 3.35 ERA)
• The Providence Grays put 35-year-old RF Dennis Morgan on the trading block.
• 05/07: HOU 8, LOU 2 – Long (HOU) 4-5, DBL, 2 RBI; Anderson 7 IP, 5 ER, L
• 05/08: DAL 4, LOU 0 – Moreno (DAL) 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 1 K
• Lefty MR Shusaku Kouki (4G, 3.2 IP, 7.32 ERA) was optioned to AAA and lefty MR Bruce Irvine (8.1 IP, 1.08 ERA) was recalled. Kouki needs regular work to develop.
• 05/09: DAL 4, LOU 1 – Roman (DAL) 8 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 4 K
• 05/10: LOU 5, DAL 2 – Morrison 3-4, HR, 2 RBI; Rodriguez 8 IP, 0 ER, W (2-1)
• SS Luis Vargas sprained his knee running the bases. The CBA’s leading hitter will be out for six weeks. That’s a punch in the gut, but it could have been worse.
• Who’s Hot: SP Ben Gentry 3G, 3-0, 0.00 ERA, 24.2 IP, 12 H, 8 BB, 10 K
• Who’s Not: SP Mike Anderson 3G, 0-2, 11.66 ERA, 14.2 IP, 22 H, 5 BB, 14 K
• This week: 3 at Salt Lake City, 3 big games at Chicago

[Orcin]

Hello, Jennifer Clark here.

If you are waiting for the *giggle* or the *teehee* at the end of that sentence, you just need to grow up. I am in my 30’s now – you don’t need to know exactly where in my 30’s – and I am not just a pretty face. I have learned a lot since I started here err… several years ago. The main thing I learned is NEVER date a ballplayer. NEVER!

Mr. Orcin relies on me for a lot of important work. One thing that I do for him is to keep a journal of those little scraps of paper that he leaves on his desk every evening. He likes to refer to this journal every few weeks because it keeps him from making decisions on what he calls a “snapshot”.

He said that I could give you this example from the journal notes this week.

Otto Orcin’s Journal
Week of May 4-10, 2015

Core players for the future: Vargas, McConnell

Cautiously optimistic: Carson, Trauttmann

Opinion trending up: Gentry, Arkle, Spencer, Plumbly

Opinion trending down: Gillespie, Anderson, Searles, Kouki, Morrison

Trade deadline bait: Anderson, Castaneda, Searles, Rodriguez (maybe)

Green says Valdez, Chavez, Young are all declining. Castro & Garcia better be good.

Should I trade Valdez now while I still can? He is my third-best player but expensive.

Could Plumbly be the regular 2B? Is that too many left-handers?

Is it too early to work on an extension for McConnell?

I have way too many arbitration cases for next year. Which ones to extend?

PATIENCE!!!

[MarkCuban]

Originally Posted by Orcin

Hello, Jennifer Clark here.
Otto Orcin’s Journal
Week of May 4-10, 2015

1. Should I trade Valdez now while I still can? He is my third-best player but expensive.

2. Could Plumbly be the regular 2B? Is that too many left-handers?

3. Is it too early to work on an extension for McConnell?

4. I have way too many arbitration cases for next year. Which ones to extend?

PATIENCE!!!

1. Yes, trade Valdez at the deadline. Look for a "win now" team where you will get maximum return. I don't think the Louievilles are going to make the playoffs this year -- especially with Vargas going down with an injury. The Louievilles have a variety of possible fill-ins for Valdez.

2. Yes, keep Plumbly as the 2B regular. He can platoon well due to his defensive versatility.

3. I'd wait to see how he plays this year. If he starts slumping try to get 'em cheap. Otherwise, wait until the offseason. Outfield is a position of strength for the Louisvilles in-house so if McConnell starts getting too big for his britches I'd ship him out a year or two down the road.

4. I'm not sure who else is arbitration eligible, but Phil Gillespie should be looked at for a long-term contract while he isn't playing well and before the first year of Arbitration.

[jaysdailydose]

Originally Posted by Orcin

Otto Orcin’s Journal
Week of May 4-10, 2015

Core players for the future: Vargas, McConnell

The journal entry was very interesting to me to get a look at the mindset behind the management. Perhaps Jennifer sharing your diary could become a regular feature?

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by MarkCuban

I don't think the Louievilles are going to make the playoffs this year -- especially with Vargas going down with an injury.

Nonsense.

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by jaysdailydose

The journal entry was very interesting to me to get a look at the mindset behind the management. Perhaps Jennifer sharing your diary could become a regular feature?

I think you will see it again, when she feels like it.

[Orcin]

May 11, 2015

Shortstop Luis Vargas was placed on the 15-day D/L. Utility infielder Richard Griffith was recalled from AAA. Jason Searles will go into the starting lineup at shortstop. Those decisions were fairly easy, and were executed in rapid succession this morning.

We spent the remainder of the off-day studying the possible lineups. We have to put the best combination on the field to compensate for the loss of Vargas, our best OBP hitter.

If Phil Green’s current ratings are combined with the “optimized lineup” theory, we get this batting order as proposed by our in-house sabermetrician, Paula Dunlap.

1. RF Brian Ferguson (best OBP hitter with least power, i.e. Vargas)
2. CF Rafael Valdez (second-best hitter, good OPS)
3. 1B Frank Carson (fifth-best hitter, power and walks)
4. LF Bryan McConnell (best all-round hitter with power)
5. 3B Phil Gillespie (fourth-best hitter, extra-base hits and speed)
6. 2B Lance Morrison (most speed of the rest)
7. C Gary Arkle (good contact singles hitter)
8. SS Jason Searles (worst hitter)

Using actual stats so far this season, the best three hitters are McConnell, Valdez, and Carson. Morrison and Ferguson are fourth and fifth. This would yield a similar lineup:

1. Carson
2. Valdez
3. Ferguson
4. McConnell
5. Morrison
6. Gillespie
7. Arkle
8. Searles

I don’t believe that we can conclude on such a small sample size, and the second lineup is only 2% better than the first using the actual stats.

The decision was made to go with Paula’s lineup. I like having the right-handed batters spaced throughout the order, which convinced me to continue batting the switch-hitter Valdez second instead of third. I am not totally sold on the idea that the #3 hitter is so unimportant, but Carson seems to be a good clutch hitter and should see good pitches batting ahead of McConnell. I like having Gillespie and Morrison in position to steal bases ahead of the singles hitters at the bottom of the order.

The concern is the under-performing Ferguson at the top of the order. I will give Chavez some chances there, and I may also try Gillespie there with Joe Young playing RF and batting fifth. Other teams seem to have a lot of interest in Young, but I don’t see it yet.

[jaysdailydose]

Originally Posted by Orcin

Nonsense.

This was my thought as well... Six games above .500 and only three games out of the division lead. Still way too much ball to be played to even suggest this team won't be in the playoffs.

[Orcin]

May 18, 2015

Subject: Week 6 Notes

Record: 22-16, .579, 4 GB
Position: 2nd place (behind Chicago)
Runs Scored: 166 – 6th in Federal
Runs Allowed: 139 – 3rd in Federal
Defense: .728 – 1st in Federal (2nd in CBA)
Power Ranking: 104.2 (8th in CBA)
Owner Mood: Very Happy; Fan Interest: 88/100 (+1)

• Last week (3-3): 1-2 at Salt Lake City, 2-1 at Chicago
• 05/12: SLC 4, LOU 3 – Blake (SLC) 2-3, HR, 3 RBI, 3-run HR in 7th off Gentry
• 05/13: LOU 2, SLC 1 – Anderson 8 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 2 BB, 5 K; Valdez HR for GWRBI
• 05/14: SLC 5, LOU 0 – White (SLC) 8 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 2 K; Blake (SLC) 2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
• New York 3B Hector Nieves (#2 salary in CBA at $24.6M) is out for the season with a torn labrum.
• We go into Chicago for a big 3-game series with the Cougars, trailing them by 5 games in the Midwest Division race.
• 05/15: CHI 7, LOU 4 – Gillespie 3-4, HR, showing signs of coming around
• Providence RF Arturo Figueroa was 5-5 with 3 HR in a 5-4 victory over Baltimore.
• 05/16: LOU 4, CHI 3 – Rodriguez 7.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 2 K; Brooks SV(12)
• Cleveland optioned rookie SP Steve Bowden (0-7, 7.34 ERA) back to AAA. I am glad that I passed on that trade now. I think Lopez will be better in the long run.
• 05/17: LOU 3, CHI 1 – Gentry 8 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 3 K; Brooks SV(13)
• Frank Carson solo HR to lead off the top of the ninth in a 1-1 tie for GWRBI.
• RF Tom Pope of the first-place Detroit Titans will miss 3 weeks with a sprained ankle. The switch-hitting Pope is batting .364 with 10 HR and 31 RBI.
• Who’s Hot: Nobody
• Who’s Not: RF Brian Ferguson 7G, 2-24, .083, 0 HR, 1 RBI (and Anderson)
• That new lineup did not score a lot of runs, but it is a small sample against the two best teams in our league. One problem is an ice cold Ferguson in the leadoff spot.
• I plan to give Ferguson a little pine time. I will put Carson at the top of the order and bat Mighty Joe Young third playing RF. Green says Young will have a career year.
• This week: 3 at Houston, 3 at San Diego

[Jabez54]

Regarding to the question of : not making to the playoffs this year ... when one look at the Defense/Runs Allowed is a strong indicator for the kind of contender this team will be in, come September ... is very strong ... timely hitting ... strong pitching ... deep defense ... ahh, smell like the Orioles of the 70's ...

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by Jabez54

timely hitting ... strong pitching ... deep defense ... ahh, smell like the Orioles of the 70's ...

Timely hitting is the key, I think. We don't have the power of those Orioles teams so we need to come up with the big hits at the right time.

[Orcin]

Draft Pool Revealed

Continental Baseball Association officials announced the list of players eligible for the 2015 first-year player draft on Saturday. Teams now have a chance to scout the draft pool for 30 days before the draft is held.

The top players available (in no particular order) seem to be:
1. SP Sam Conner, 17 year-old out of high-school
2. SS Bob Ward, 19 year-old out of high-school
3. SP Juan Martínez, 21 year-old out of college (Nicholls State)
4. SP Jack Knox, 21 year-old out of college (Louisville)
5. LF Ricardo Flores, 18 year-old out of high-school
6. RF Rick Blair, 22 year-old out of college (Maryland)
7. SP Bernardo Ibarra, 18 year-old out of high-school
8. LF Bruce Gayden, 22 year-old out of college (Florida International)
9. CF Ben Owens, 17 year-old out of high-school
10. CF Jason Brown, 17 year-old out of high-school

The Colonels will draft #15 in round 1. We will look for the best player available that we can likely sign.

Being a home-town boy, left-hander Jack Knox is high on our list. However, his stamina is probably too low to be a starter in the majors.

We like Blair a lot. He projects to be a high contact hitter with good speed and defense.

Ibarra is a great prospect but he will go high and we couldn’t sign him anyway. He wants $8M in signing bonus and our whole budget is only $5M.

The interesting thing is that Phil Green has 10 players in the pool rated 5-star prospects, and none of them are among the 10 listed above. I will be asking Green for an updated report on each of those players. We might be going for an unknown name unless Blair happens to still be on the board at 15.

[jaysdailydose]

Originally Posted by Orcin

• Providence RF Arturo Figueroa was 5-5 with 3 HR in a 5-4 victory over Baltimore.

So... does dis be Jorge's cousin or his brudda?

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by jaysdailydose

So... does dis be Jorge's cousin or his brudda?

Unrelated as far as we know.

[Orcin]

Monday, May 18, 2015

We have an off-day, so I made the rounds of other teams looking for ways to improve the club and/or the farm system.

One GM that I had not contacted since my return was my predecessor, Chris Porter. I thought it might be an uncomfortable conversation, so I was putting it off. I know Porter quite well from his time as the personal attorney for the Colonels’ former owner, the late Henry Cooper. My current boss, Henry’s son Gordon, relieved Porter of his duties here only a few short months ago, and I wasn’t sure how Porter would react to my call. As it turned out, the exchange was quite pleasant and all business. I was probably nervous for nothing. After all, I had not been involved in his dismissal and I was always careful to avoid criticizing my former team (and therefore Porter’s work) during my tenure at BNN.

Porter’s new boss, Cincinnati Bobcats owner Ruben Urbina, is known as “demanding” and fiscally “controlling”. Urbina’s expectation is “play .500 ball” and Porter is barely in compliance today with a 19-19 record. The Bobcats have the #14 starting rotation in the Patriot League, and Urbina considers it a “weakness”. Porter would like to upgrade it for the rest of this season, buying time to get the rest of his house in order. Urbina has tied Porter’s hands because the budget has been exceeded. Porter’s attempts to clear dollars by dumping 32-year-old wrecked SP Benvenuto Casoli and his $13M salary have failed so far, so Porter is forced to seek trades that involve no additional salary expense.

I have a starting pitcher that is available for the right price, and Mike Anderson’s $1M salary and 100 mph fastball look pretty attractive to Porter. He seems willing to overlook the 5.59 ERA and 4.91 FIP. Porter isn’t the only one. There are several teams around the league asking about Anderson. He will give you innings, and most teams need that. I prefer quality innings myself. If I am going to leave someone out there to be shelled, I might as well give younger pitchers a chance to prove themselves. I have a couple of veterans in Clark and Mazzone that deserve a look also.

I asked for Cincinnati’s top prospect Jose Diaz, and Porter didn’t blink an eye. Diaz is the #17 prospect in the CBA. He is currently playing center field in AAA, batting .279 with a .827 OPS. He has power and a good eye, but his speed is fairly ordinary. Diaz is very skilled defensively and plays all three outfield spots along with first and third base. The versatility is very attractive. Porter is willing to include a veteran player plus cash, or let me have a second prospect if I will include a small amount of cash.

I told Porter I would get back to him as soon as Phil Green has completed the updated scouting reports on Diaz and a few other Cincinnati players. Green’s “task list” is quite full at the moment.

[Orcin]

CBA STANDINGS (May 22, 2015 – 41 Games)



We are on a pace to win 96 games, but that might not be good enough to win the division.
San Diego is a huge surprise. No one expected their offense to be this good.




New York is a mild surprise, but the rest of the Patriot League favorites are running true to form.

[Orcin]

LEAGUE LEADERS (May 22, 2015 – 41 Games)



Vargas will eventually drop off this board due to insufficient plate appearances to be qualified.

[Orcin]

LOUISVILLE COLONELS (May 22, 2015 – 41 Games)




Please direct your attention to the far right column, where you will see all of the minor league teams with excellent records and the prospects doing well. That pair of pitchers at the top of the list are particularly appealing.

The two areas of concern are on-base percentage and the bullpen. Obviously, Vargas gets on base far more frequently than Searles, so this situation will improve in 4-5 weeks. The bullpen will need some help from the outside because the best of the kids (Sanderson, Carlson, Irvine, Kouki) have already been in the majors.




The four starters at the top of that list are performing well, better than expected in most cases. I am a little worried about Gentry. Check the fielding-independent pitching (FIP) and batting average for balls in play (BABIP). Both of those figures indicate that his ERA may rise over the rest of the season. However, I will be happy with anything below four from all of these pitchers. Anderson has to improve a lot to reach that target, and I see nothing in the underlying stats to make me believe that he will get there. He is good for innings, but I might be better off to give those innings to younger pitchers like Maestas or Mazzone. Among the relievers, I am not worried about Brooks. The worst guy in the bullpen in Carlson, and he isn’t that bad.

Among the regulars, right field is definitely a concern, which is why Young is getting a tryout there. I don’t intend to give up on Ferguson. Chavez is out of options and must clear waivers when Banks returns; or I must continue without a right-handed outfielder on the bench. Gillespie is also performing below expectations (good time for an extension, yeah I hear ya). Morrison looks bad but he has hit much better during May. Bland will be starting a few days per week in place of Arkle when he returns from his injury.

[CatKnight]

Well, 3 games out in what was supposed to be a somewhat lost year isn't bad at all. You're leading the wildcard despite losing Vargas. Once he comes back...

EDIT: And I just did a quick check: The first appearance I found for Jennifer was July 2001. She had nothing to say, so we can assume she was still getting settled. From her subsequent actions we can assume this was her first job, so she was 18-22 years old.

So, in May 2015 she'd be....

I should stop while I'm ahead, huh?

[Orcin]

Originally Posted by CatKnight

So, in May 2015 she'd be....

I should stop while I'm ahead, huh?

Yes, in fact Jennifer is giving you a stern stare right now.