Stupid Money: the Bryce Harper era in Philadelphia (2019-2031ish?)

[jaa36]

The Phils have been clicking on all cylinders so far this year, jumping out of the gate to a 57-31 record in the first half of the season. That's the second-best record in the National League, in a year when many people had left them for dead.

There are plenty of reasons for the bounce back for this resilient Phillies team, which has reached the postseason seven consecutive years, and nine of the last ten. Certainly Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been everything he was advertised to be, hitting .336 with 16 home runs and 54 RBI. Jansiel Rivera has done his usual thing, hitting .286 with a team-leading 27 homers and 58 driven in. First baseman Bob Timmons was expected to provide exceptional defense, but has also contributed with the bat, hitting .275 with 15 home runs. And Joey Estes has matched his production from last season, going 10-3 with a 2.75 ERA, while leading a surprisingly solid rotation to the second-best ERA in the league.

Meanwhile, Bryce Harper collected another milestone, with his 2500th hit this season. "I think I've got a few more in this bat," said Harper, who's hit .240 with 12 home runs this season.

Manager Dave Schnapler is thrilled with the team's play thus far. "It's great to see," he said. "We're just trying to keep it loose, have fun. It's a terrific team, and we've gotten contributions from just about everyone."

[jaa36]

The Philadelphia locker room was deathly quiet after the final out of the League Championship Series. This one hurt. Bryce Harper wasn't willing to speak to the media at all. Joey Estes did, but even if he hadn't, his feeling were etched all over his face. "We stunk," Estes said. "I stunk. Couldn't even give 'em three innings."

Estes certainly had reason to be proud of his efforts during the regular season, going 16-7 with a 3.24 ERA and winning his third NL Cy Young Award. But his magic dried up quickly in the NLCS, as the 106-win Phillies were swept by the 100-win Giants. Estes and the Phillies lost Game One 17-5, and the Giants never looked back, though they were defeated by the Oakland Athletics in five games in an all-Bay Area World Series.

It's hard to imagine this core ever having a better chance than they did this year. The Phils rolled through the regular season, winning the division by 26 games, and looked primed to continue through the postseason. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. proved to a potent addition to the lineup, and Jansiel Rivera had yet another incredible season, finishing second in the MVP voting yet again, and slamming 48 home runs and driving in 109. Rivera appears likely to leave as a free agent this year- with rumors that he's requesting a $500 million contract. Even at 32 years of age, he just might be worth it.

It appears that manager Dave Schnapler did just enough for owner John Middleton to bring him back for one more season, which might well be Bryce Harper's last in a Phillies uniform. 106 wins can get you a lot in most cities. In Philadelphia, it gets you just one year.

[jaa36]

Thirteen years after Bryce Harper was signed, the Phillies are spending "stupid money" once again. The team is pushing all the chips in in an effort to bring home another world championship. While the offseason saw the departure of legendary outfielder Jansiel Rivera and Starlyn Castillo, who both signed with the Cubs (for $275 and $144 million respectively), the Phillies restocked the cupboard and then some with some free agent acquisitions of their own, and enter the season as the odds-on favorites to win the World Series.

The biggest signing was shortstop Luke Leto, a 28-year-old two-time MVP who played in Minnesota for the first seven seasons of his career. Leto is coming off an injury-marred season, but put up over 9 WAR for three straight seasons with the Twins. He inked an eight-year deal worth $384 million, the largest contract in Phillies history.

The hole in the rotation was remedied with Sergio Silva, a 27-year-old who spend the first part of his career in St. Louis. Silva is durable and consistent, having made at least 30 starts the last five seasons and putting up at an average of 4 WAR per season. He signed for $189 million over seven years.

Leto aside, the lineup had some other significant changes too. Top prospect Juan Orozco made the team out of spring training- he's ranked as #8 overall on the BNN listings, and he looks likely to become the impact bat that Rivera was for so many years in Philadelphia. In addition, the Phils acquired catcher Willem Rowling from the Texas Rangers for reserve outfielder Billy Konigsberg; Rowling is probably the best bat the Phils have had as a catcher since the days of J.T. Realmuto.

All in all, this adds up to a dominant lineup, a dominant rotation, and a pretty good bullpen. Time will tell whether that translates into the championship that has eluded the Phillies the last four seasons.

[jaa36]

Bryce Harper has lost his starting job, but he isn't complaining- this time, at least. "Look, I get it," said Harper. "I'm hitting .167. But the important thing is, we're winning, and I just wanna do whatever I can to help the team."

The Phillies have been as good as advertised, jumping out to a 55-34 record, the best in baseball at the All-Star break. The Phillies boast five All-Stars, including rookie sensation Juan Orozco (.291/22/53), who won the NL Batter of the Month in June. Once again, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been the toughest out in the lineup, hitting .312 with 20 home runs and 70 RBI. And the rotation has been outstanding, with Joey Estes (10-3, 2.78), Sergio Silva (8-1, 3.22) and Tommie Pifer (5-3, 2.76) all making the All-Star team as well.

With the Phils firmly in the driver's seat in the NL East, general manager Pat Blentak shored up the bullpen, trading for former Phillie DeMarcus Evans. The Padres will pay the remainder of Evans's $12 million salary in exchange for minor leaguer Ajani McClure.

Owner John Middleton isn't ready to call the year a success just yet. "We spent a lot of money on this team," Middleton said. "There's only one outcome that's acceptable to me, and that's winning the World Series."

[jaa36]

You couldn't ask for more than what the Phillies did in the regular season. And yet...

"I'm absolutely devastated," said shortstop Luke Leto after the Phillies lost Game Six against the Indians. "We were better on paper. But on paper doesn't matter when the games are played."

The Phillies got to the postseason on the strength of 106 wins and a dominating lineup and pitching staff. They easily advanced to the World Series by dominating the Chicago Cubs and the San Francisco Giants. Once they faced off against Cleveland, who had won just 83 games in the regular season, it was a different story. NL Reliever of the Year Rogelio Rocha gave up a walk-off hit to light-hitting center fielder Brian Miller in Game Four to tie the series, and then allowed a two-run ninth-inning single the next night to give up the lead in Game Five. And crafty veteran lefty Faustino Carrera stymied the Phillies' bats in Game Six to give the Indians their first World Series title since all the way back in 1948.

The loss hit hardest for Bryce Harper, whose 13-year, $330 million contract is finally up. Harper hit just .165 on the season, getting only 200 at-bats as he lost his starting job. Harper wasn't even included on the postseason roster. At 39 years of age, Harper hasn't commented on the question of whether Major League Baseball has seen the last of him. It seems likely that he would take a job if someone offered one, but it seems unlikely that that job would be in Philadelphia at this point.

It's certainly still easy to see a bright future for the Phillies. Joey Estes won his third straight Cy Young Award, winning 20 games with a 2.96 ERA. Juan Orozco won the NL Rookie of the Year, hitting .291 with 40 home runs and 110 RBI, and finished third in the NL MVP voting; you could say he effectively replaced Jansiel Rivera, who finished second. (Remarkably, Rivera has now finished second in NL MVP voting five times and third once, without ever winning the award.) Meanwhile, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. tore the cover off the ball yet again, hitting .309 with 39 home runs and 111 RBI, and Leto was quietly effective out of the leadoff spot, hitting .270 with a .367 on-base percentage and 27 home runs.

It was the end of an era in Philadelphia, and the moment wasn't lost on owner John Middleton. "Bryce Harper has meant so much to us in Philadelphia," said Middleton, shedding a tear. "He's been with us for thirteen years, and he's been a phenomenal contributor to our team, not just statistically, but putting us on the map again. We won two championships with Bryce here. That's more than a lot of teams can say, even though I wish it had been more. I know Bryce wishes it had been more. And I'll tell you what, this isn't the end for the Phillies, and I wouldn't count Bryce out either."

[jaa36]

A franchise player leaves the team? No problem, we'll get another, say the Phillies. General manager Pat Blentak opted not to return for the season, but new general manager Mike Hazen took a page out of his book, inking outfielder Juan Sena to a seven-year, $231 million contract. The 30-year-old Sena is a three-time All-Star and hit .283 with 39 home runs and 106 RBI last season. He'll be the designated hitter, with Luis Ocon sliding into left field for now. Between Sena, Juan Orozco (who signed an eight-year, $160 million extension of his own), Luke Leto and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the Phillies' offense remains remarkably potent.

Meanwhile, the exciting Luis Portales will take over first base duties. The 23-year-old Portales is an odd combination- a great contact hitter who's hit at every level of the minors, lightning speed, an ace glove at first base, but no power whatsoever. 25-year-old Dan Carter brings a more balanced skillset and will play second base.

Joey Estes returned on a six-year, $240 million deal, but the rotation is thin right now, with last year's trade deadline acquisition Brailin Gonzalez (whose $31 million salary will be paid entirely by the New York Mets) starting the season on the DL. $27 million reliever Julio Urias will miss the season once again with the 53rd severe arm injury of his career.

Bryce Harper remains unsigned as the season begins. The Phils considered bringing him back, but there wasn't a role for him what with the defensive limitations of Ocon and Sena. Harper hasn't spoken about whether he'd accept a deal from another team.

[jaa36]

The Phillies have gotten out to a good start in 2032, putting up a 52-37 record at the All-Star break. That's three games behind the New York Mets, though, so the path to the playoffs isn't as easy as it's been the last few years. The league-leading offense has once again been led by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (.330/17/60) and Juan Orozco (.281/27/65). Meanwhile, Juan Sena (.232/11/38) and Luke Leto (.236/6/24) have struggled, and it's easy to wonder whether all the money the Phillies have tied up in those two has been misspent. The rotation has been solid, if unspectacular, and Rogelio Rocha has shrugged off his postseason struggles to pitch well as the closer once again.

The Phils signed Bryce Harper to a minor-league deal- though many were surprised that Harper accepted. He may rejoin the club near the end of the season if there's room for him on the September roster. It's widely rumored that Harper will in fact retire at the end of the season.

[jaa36]

It was the same old story for the Phillies in 2032- excellent regular season, then falling short of expectations in the playoffs. This time, you could at least say that they were beaten by the better team, falling to the San Francisco Giants in six games in the League Championship Series. The Giants lost to the Oakland Athletics in a repeat of the 2030 World Series.

The story of the regular season was the dominant performance by closer Rogelio Rocha, who decimated the competition to the tune of a 1.20 ERA, 44 saves, and 5.0 WAR out of the bullpen, good enough for both the NL Reliever of the Year and the Cy Young Award.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was excellent again, hitting .308 with 27 home runs and 95 RBI, but he chose to void his player option for next season. It's possible the Phils could bring him back, though he's asking for $55 million per season. It's also possible the Phillies could attempt to move on from Juan Sena, who was a huge disappointment in his first season in red pinstripes and still has nearly $200 million on his contract.

Julio Urias mercifully retired after suffering every arm injury it is possible to have. In his last five seasons with Philadelphia, he pitched less than a hundred innings, bilking the Phillies out of $135 million in the process.

Bryce Harper came back for one final game in a Phillies uniform, going 1 for 4 on the last day of the season and driving in a run, to cheers and applause that seem like they're still going on. "It's a real honor having had a chance to play for this team for so long," said Harper, wiping away a tear. "I don't know how else to say it. I've fought and bled with these guys for so long. This is my home, and I'm going to miss it." Harper hasn't formally announced his retirement, but it seems likely to be forthcoming.

[jaa36]

It wouldn't be an offseason without a flurry of aggressive moves from a Phillies front office. There were quite a few moving pieces this time around, and when the dust settled, the Phillies again appear to have the best offense in baseball, a solid (if injury-riddled) rotation, and an elite bullpen.

Looking to improve their athleticism and outfield defense, general manager Mike Hazen struck quickly in free agency, signing outfielder Roc Riggio to a six-year deal worth $252 million. The 30-year-old Riggio has won Gold Gloves in all eight of his seasons in right field for the San Diego Padres, though he'll play center for the Phils and should do just fine out there as well. Riggio has accumulated 47.6 WAR over the course of his career and is coming off a typical year in which he hit .295 with a .391 on-base percentage and a league-leading 48 stolen bases.

With Riggio in place, Hazen went ahead and moved Juan Sena, last year's big free agent acquisition, to the Detroit Tigers for Jackson Miller, himself a six-time Gold Glover and perhaps the best all-around catcher in baseball, providing good on-base skills, power, and even some speed. Miller isn't cheap, making $237 million over the next six seasons, and at 31 years old there's a real risk he could fall off a cliff during that time, but Hazen felt that locking down the catcher position was important to the team's success.

The Phils went on to the supplement the core with 27-year-old international free agent Jorge Reza, who will play third base, and rookie right fielder Rodolfo Valles, who was acquired from the Los Angeles Dodgers for erstwhile catcher Willem Rowling. That deal also brought starting pitchers Chris Fountain and Jose Uribe, and after Joey Estes went on the shelf with a strained forearm, Hazen brought in veteran Kellan Tulio from the Boston Red Sox as well.

All of it adds up to more hopes that this year will end differently in Philadelphia. It's now seven years since the last championship in Philadelphia, and the fans are getting restless.

Meanwhile, there isn't much word on Bryce Harper, who remains unsigned, though Phillies leadership has clearly said that they don't anticipate bringing back Harper for another curtain call this season.

[jaa36]

The resilient Phillies keep on rolling in the regular season despite a spate of injuries to their position players. Luke Leto, Luis Ocon, Roc Riggio and Rodolfo Valles have all missed a fair amount of time, but the team has continued to score runs at a fast pace, in large part due to Juan Orozco, who's hitting .300 with 17 home runs and 69 RBI.

The big story has been the rotation, which has been the league's best behind the amazing (and unexpected) efforts of Sergio Silva and Chris Fountain, both of whom have a 1.83 ERA. The pair is first and second in wins in the National League. Silva has certainly had good years before, though he hasn't put up an ERA below 3 since way back in 2026. And Fountain- well, his ERA was 5.29 in his rookie season last year. Suffice it to say, the Phillies are pleased with their performances.

The team has a clear path to the NL East title- which would be the seventh in a row for the team- but the San Francisco Giants are keeping pace out west. The Giants have knocked the Phillies out of the playoffs in three of the last five postseasons. The Phillies have a score to settle.

[jaa36]

"This one... is for Bryce!" exclaimed owner John Middleton, as he hoisted the World Series trophy for the Philadelphia fans on a cold day in November. "Over thirteen years, he gave us everything he had. He made this great city into the best baseball city in America!"

Middleton wasn't exaggerating. The Phillies had turned into the premiere franchise in baseball, winning easily more games than any other franchise in baseball since the year 2020. (We'll forget about 2019, Harper's first year with the club, when they bizarrely lost 101 games.). They had won over 100 games in five separate seasons, including a franchise-record 107 this year. They had won seven straight NL East titles, and nine of the last ten, and had reached the playoffs in eleven consecutive seasons. The franchise had sold out every game for the last four seasons. And to cap it off, they were now World Series champions for the the third time in Middleton's reign, and the fifth time in franchise history, coming back from a 3-1 series deficit to win in seven games.

Harper was honored on September 19 by the Phillies, when they chose to retire his #3 on the same day he announced his retirement from baseball. Not willing to give up on the chance to play again this season, Harper had signed a minor-league deal with the Expos and eventually got into a few games with Montreal and Oakland, but by season's end, he knew that his playing days were past. Harper threw out the first pitch of the World Series to an ovation that rivaled the one he received during his last game with the Phillies the year before.

"It's just incredible to me, to look back on my career, and all the support I had from the fans here," said Harper. "I wish I could have gotten that third ring with these guys, but I'm so happy for them that they were able to do it." Harper had finished his Phillies career with 60.7 WAR, 391 home runs, and 1082 RBI.

It certainly wasn't easy. The Beavers had comeback wins in Games Three and Four, to give them a 3-1 series lead, and it felt like so many past Phillies seasons had- a great team that went thud in the playoffs. But this year, things were different. A tenth-inning double by Jorge Reza led the Phils to a 10-7 lead in Game Five. And some masterful pitching by Sergio Silva and Chris Fountain in the final two games--just like they had provided all season--helped the Phillies complete the comeback. Rookie Rodolfo Valles had 12 hits and two home runs to win the World Series MVP.

The Phillies got disappointing seasons from their highest-paid hitters, Roc Riggio (.230/3/39), Luke Leto (.253/7/28) and Jackson Miller (.253/6/40). But the other remarkable performances during the regular season more than made up for them. Sergio Silva brought home the fifth straight NL Cy Young Award by a Phillies pitcher, going 20-2 with a 2.04 ERA. Joey Estes and Chris Fountain both finished the year with ERAs below 3 as well. And Juan Orozco hit .303 with 38 home runs and 135 RBI.

Shortly after the season, though, manager Dave Schnapler unexpectedly resigned from the team. Schnapler revealed, to the astonishment of Philadelphia fans and media, that he had in fact been former manager Gabe Kapler after all, just with a mustache. "I couldn't believe it," said Middleton. "We had spent all that stupid money, and we didn't even do a background check on our manager." Kapler/Schnapler retires with a record of 1414-1017, having won three World Series titles.

The Phillies hired the unknown Matt Wise to manage the club, with Mike Hazen staying on as general manager. They couldn't have things set up much better for them, but nothing this good can last forever.

[jaa36]

On a crisp January day in 2039, Bryce Harper learned that he was elected to the Hall of Fame on the first ballot, gathering 98.6% of the vote. "I really don't know whaat to stay during such an enormous moment," said Harper," because words cannot describe all the feelings and thoughts running through my head. The love and appreciation from all my fellow players and all the fans out there has been overwhelming, but I would not be here today without the love and support of my family. My greatest thanks goes to them." Unsurprisingly, Harper will enter the Hall as a Phillie.

The Phillies continued their tremendous success in the years since Harper, Gabe Kapler and Matt Klentak (who, it turned out, was also pretending to be "Pat Blentak") left the team. They made the playoffs every year since, and took home two more World Series titles, in 2035 and 2036.

The Harper legacy proved to be a good one, ushering in two decades of phenomenal baseball in Philadelphia, all for the bargain price of $330 million.

[DD Martin]

That was a fun ride

[Mat]

yep, good read. thx